2016 White Book Steve Bellcoff BONNEVILLE POWER ADMINISTRATION - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2016 White Book Steve Bellcoff BONNEVILLE POWER ADMINISTRATION - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N 2016 White Book Steve Bellcoff BONNEVILLE POWER

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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

January 13, 2017

2016 White Book

Steve Bellcoff BONNEVILLE POWER ADMINISTRATION Long Term Power Planning srbellcoff@bpa.gov | P 503-230-3319

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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

January 13, 2017

2016 White Book Presentation Outline

  • What is the White Book
  • Major Changes since 2015 White Book
  • Federal System Deterministic Analysis
  • PNW Regional Deterministic Analysis
  • Discussion

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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

January 13, 2017

2016 White Book

  • The White Book is BPA’s annual planning study summary, that documents

the latest forecast of loads and resources in the Pacific Northwest. Expected power usage and obligations are looked at in comparison to generating resources, for both the Federal system and the PNW region as a whole.

 The Federal System is simply; BPA’s load obligations and resources available to serve those loads  The PNW region, is the region as defined by the Power Act

  • The Federal System is a subset of the Region, just as the NRF could be considered a subset
  • The White Book is used by BPA as a long term planning tool, it is not used

to guide day-to-day operations of the Federal Columbia River Power System or to determine BPA revenues or rates. But as a source of long term loads and resources information, as a data source for the Columbia River Treaty (Treaty) studies, as an information tool for customers and regional interests, and as a published source of loads and resources information for other planning entities to use for their analyses.

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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

January 13, 2017

  • 2016 White Book includes:

 Federal System Deterministic Analysis  PNW Regional Deterministic Analysis

  • Metrics Presented:

 Energy (aMW) calculated by averaging the hourly forecast across the entire month  120-Hour Capacity calculated by averaging hourly forecasts from the 6 highest heavy load hours per day, 5 days per week, for 4 weeks per a month (6 x 5 x 4 = 120 hours) Could be considered a super peak or taking into a count the double peaks

  • Loads used in Analysis:

 Loads are calculate for each individual PNW entity,  Using statistical approaches that are based on time-series-based regressions,  Follow the fundamental assumption that historical retail electricity consumption patterns will continue into the future,  Assume normal weather conditions, and  Do not include any adjustments for future climate change impacts.

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2016 White Book

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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

January 13, 2017

Major Changes

  • Federal System Needs Assessment and the Resource Adequacy are not included

 last published as part of the 2015 White Book

  • Traditional annual updates:

 Regional Total Retail Loads, Federal obligations, contracts purchase and sales;

  • As September 8, 2016
  • General updates:

 Inclusion of newly formed “Kalispel Tribal Utility’;  Expiration of BPA’s acquisition of Idaho Falls Bulb Turbine generation;  Colstrip 1 and 2 retirement on June 30, 2022  Reduction of PNW regional Total Retail Load, by almost 250 aMW due to idling of Alcoa’s Wenatchee Works plant in Chelan County PUD’s service area

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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

January 13, 2017

Federal System Deterministic Analysis

  • Federal system load forecast are based on expected load obligations
  • Federal system resource forecast are based on resources under critical water

conditions.

  • Annual Energy Surplus/Deficits: show small annual energy surpluses in the first few years, and

growing deficits over the rest of the study period.

Average water conditions result in surpluses over the entire study horizon.

  • January 120-Hour Capacity Surplus/Deficits: show capacity deficits throughout the study horizon.

Average water conditions result in January 120-Hour capacity surpluses over the study horizon.

Note: Includes A-RHWM load placed on BPA by customers, however it does not included any unsigned resource contract to serve that load

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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

January 13, 2017

PNW Regional Deterministic Analysis

  • Regional loads forecasts are based on expected total retail load (with modest load growth)
  • Regions resources forecasts are based on resources under critical water conditions,

and assume that all uncommitted PNW Independent Power Producer (IPP) generation is available to serve regional loads.

  • Annual Energy Surplus/Deficits: show large annual energy surpluses decreasing over the study

horizon.

Average water conditions result in even larger energy surpluses over the study horizon.

  • January 120-Hour Capacity Surplus/Deficits: show small capacity surpluses over the first 2 years

and growing deficits over the remainder of the study horizon.

Average water conditions result in January 120-Hour capacity surpluses throughout the study horizon. 7

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2016 White Book

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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

January 13, 2017

  • Variability of Hydro in Deterministic Analysis

 Results are presented under Critical Hydro conditions, better water conditions increase the resources capability in the region on an annual basis, which cause surplus/deficits to be effected in a positive manner on an annual basis  However better water conditions do not increase resource capability over all months equally. August through December see very little variability in resource capability.  While the above graph reflects the Regions resources, as a subset of these the Federal resources follow the same pattern

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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

January 13, 2017

  • Variabilities due to IPP Generation in PNW Regional Analysis

 Regional analysis includes uncommitted PNW IPP generation, or the share of this generation that is not committed to a specific load  This assumption is reasonable from a long-term planning stand point when you consider that the analysis does not include any reliance on market purchases.

However regional utilities may have to compete with other western markets to secure this generation in

  • rder to meet electrical demand

 White Book inclusion of uncommitted IPP Resources is very similar to what

  • thers do in studies when they add ‘Market Resources’ or ‘Market Purchases’ as

a resource, to serve load. However by using the regions uncommitted IPP’s we are directly identifying potential resources that could make up those markets  Using the full (100%) uncommitted IPP generation capability may result in

  • verstating the availability of these resources for real-time use.

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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

January 13, 2017

2016 White Book

  • Federal System Extended Event Planning (Question was asked)
  • Analysis is done as part of the Federal System Needs Assessment, which was

last published as part of the 2015 White Book

  • 18-Hour Capacity metric

– Evaluates the Federal system’s ability to meet the six peak load hours per day over a three-day extreme weather event, assuming median water

  • conditions. Winter and summer extreme weather events are analyzed.
  • Analysis showed the Federal System to be Surplus in both Winter and Summer
  • Discussion and/or Questions related to the 2016 White Book

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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

January 13, 2017

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White Book Appendix

2016 White Book

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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

January 13, 2017

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2016 White Book Federal System Annual Energy Surplus/Deficit

Changes Since the 2015 White Book

  • Load obligations, contracts, hydro, and generating resource estimates are

similar to the BP-16 Final Proposal

  • Federal system annual energy load obligations lower by -164 aMW
  • Updated ALF Regional Dialogue obligations estimates were lower by about
  • 134 aMW (-74 aMW Load Following, -23 aMW Tier 1 Block, and -37 aMW Slice)
  • Intra-Regional Transfers (Out) and Exports increased by 15 aMW mainly due to

trading floor contract sales

  • Federal Agency loads were lowered by about -7 aMW
  • DSI loads lower based on the ALCOA curtailment reduction of -41 aMW
  • Federal system annual energy resources lower by -45 aMW
  • Hydro forecasts updates reflect a -84 aMW reduction.
  • Columbia Generation Station showed a 25 aMW increase
  • Intra-Regional Transfers (In) increased by 16 aMW due to trading floor contract

purchases OY 2018 Comparison

OY Energy in aMW 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2016 White Book 220 28 168

  • 75
  • 37
  • 203
  • 74
  • 241
  • 112
  • 267

2015 White Book 102

  • 93

7

  • 167
  • 116
  • 268
  • 121
  • 298
  • 152

n/a Difference (2016 WBK – 2015 WBK) 118 121 161 91 79 65 47 57 40 n/a

Using 1937-Critical Water Conditions Energy in Average Megawatts

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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

January 13, 2017

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2016 White Book Federal System January 120-Hour Surplus/Deficit

January 2018

Changes Since the 2014 White Book

  • Load obligations, contracts, hydro, and generating resource estimates are the same as the

BP-16 Final Proposal

  • Federal system 120-Hour capacity load obligations decreased about -160 MW
  • Regional Dialogue obligations reduced by about -27 MW (-71 MW Load Following, -57 MW Tier 1 Block,

101 MW increase in Slice)

  • Intra-Regional transfers (In) and Exports decreased by about -9 MW due to trading floor activity
  • Federal Agency and USBR decreased by about -22 MW
  • Federal system 120-Hour capacity resources increased by about 211 MW
  • January 120-hour hydro decreased by -222 MW, driven by Grands Coulee and expiration of the Idaho Falls

Bulb Turbine generation acquisition contract.

  • Columbia Generation Station showed a 24 aMW increase
  • Intra-Regional Transfers (In) and Imports increased by about 9 MW due to the expiration of contracts
  • Reserves and losses are calculated and their reductions were lower by about 400 MW due to above

resource changes and reserve amounts

120-Hour Capacity Surplus/Deficit 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2016 WBK 120-Hr Capacity Federal S/D

  • 509
  • 736
  • 659
  • 665
  • 809
  • 812
  • 856
  • 800
  • 862
  • 863

2015 WBK 120-Hr Capacity Federal S/D

  • 880
  • 1,039
  • 990
  • 1,020
  • 1,108
  • 1,188
  • 1,170
  • 1,188
  • 1,195

n/a Difference (2016 WBK – 2015 WBK) 371 303 331 355 299 376 313 388 332 n/a

Using 1937-Critical Water Conditions 120-Hour Capacity in Megawatts

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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

January 13, 2017

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2016 White Book Regional Annual Energy Surplus/Deficit

OY Energy in aMW 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Uncommitted IPPs in PNW Region 2,782 2,782 2,789 2,401 2,232 2,260 2,294 2,295 2,125 2,038 Regional Surplus/Deficit (100% IPPs) 4,258 3,839 3,782 2.707 2,009 1,323 1,312 798 240

  • 293

Regional Surplus/Deficit (50% IPPs) 2,867 2,448 2,387 1,506 893 193 165

  • 349
  • 823
  • 1,312

Regional Surplus/Deficit (No IPPs) 1,477 1,057 993 306

  • 223
  • 938
  • 982
  • 1,496
  • 1,885
  • 2,331

Utilizing Various Levels of PNW IPP Generation; Using 1937-Critical Water Conditions OY Energy in aMW

OY Energy in aMW 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Uncommitted IPPs in PNW Region 2,891 2,892 2,912 2,525 2,356 2,388 2,428 2,429 2,260 n/a Regional Surplus/Deficit (100% IPPs) 4,293 3,792 3,669 2,659 1,964 1,486 1,493 1,032 481 n/a Regional Surplus/Deficit (50% IPPs) 2,847 2,346 2,213 1,397 786 292 279

  • 182
  • 649

n/a Regional Surplus/Deficit (No IPPs) 1,401 900 757 134

  • 392
  • 903
  • 935
  • 1,397
  • 1,779

n/a OY Energy in aMW 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 100% IPP Difference (2016 WBK – 2015 WBK)

  • 109
  • 110
  • 223
  • 124
  • 124
  • 118
  • 134
  • 134
  • 135

n/a

2015 White Book 2016 White Book Difference

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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

January 13, 2017

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2016 White Book Regional January 120-Hour Surplus/Deficit

January 120-Hour Capacity 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Uncommitted IPPs in PNW Region 2941 2941 2941 2952 2337 2337 2337 2337 2337 2047 Regional Surplus/Deficit (100% IPPs) 160

  • 198
  • 189
  • 1755
  • 2349
  • 3054
  • 3436
  • 3754
  • 4907
  • 5255

Regional Surplus/Deficit (50% IPPs)

  • 1310
  • 1668
  • 1660
  • 3231
  • 3518
  • 4223
  • 4604
  • 4922
  • 6076
  • 6278

Regional Surplus/Deficit (No IPPs)

  • 2781
  • 3139
  • 3131
  • 4707
  • 4686
  • 5391
  • 5773
  • 6091
  • 7244
  • 7302

Utilizing Various Levels of PNW IPP Generation; Using 1937-Critical Water Conditions 120-Hour Capacity in Megawatts

January 120-Hour Capacity 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Uncommitted IPPs in PNW Region 3035 3035 3042 3060 2445 2445 2445 2445 2445 n/a Regional Surplus/Deficit (100% IPPs) 105

  • 278
  • 582
  • 2,211
  • 2,758
  • 3,255
  • 3,665
  • 3,901
  • 5,107

n/a Regional Surplus/Deficit (50% IPPs)

  • 1,413
  • 1,796
  • 2,103
  • 3,741
  • 3,980
  • 4,478
  • 4,887
  • 5,124
  • 6,329

n/a Regional Surplus/Deficit (No IPPs)

  • 2,930
  • 3,313
  • 3,623
  • 5,271
  • 5,203
  • 5,700
  • 6,110
  • 6,346
  • 7,552

n/a January 120-Hour Capacity 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100% IPP Difference (2016 WBK – 2015 WBK)

  • 94
  • 94
  • 101
  • 108
  • 108
  • 108
  • 108
  • 108
  • 108

n/a

2015 White Book 2016 White Book Difference

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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

January 13, 2017

Federal System Needs Assessment

  • Metric

 Annual Energy

– Evaluates the Federal system annual average energy surplus/deficit under 1937-critical water conditions.

 Monthly P10 Heavy Load Hour Energy

– Evaluates the lowest 10th percentile (P10) of the Federal system surplus/deficit over heavy load hours by month. Each month is analyzed independently.

 Monthly P10 Superpeak Energy

– Evaluates the lowest 10th percentile (P10) of the Federal system surplus/deficit over the six peak load hours per weekday by month. Each month is analyzed independently.

 18-Hour Capacity

– Evaluates the Federal system’s ability to meet the six peak load hours per day over a three-day extreme weather event assuming median water conditions. Winter and summer extreme weather events are analyzed.

 Reserves for Ancillary Services

– Evaluates the ability of the Federal system to meet forecasted balancing reserve needs in Bonneville’s balancing authority area. 16

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B O N N E V I L L E P O W E R A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

January 13, 2017

Federal System Needs Assessment

  • Results

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Minimum development to meet current RPS standards