2016 VTB Group Investor Day
London / May 17, 2016
2016 VTB Group Investor Day London / May 17, 2016 Some of the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2016 VTB Group Investor Day London / May 17, 2016 Some of the information in this presentation may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of JSC VTB Bank
London / May 17, 2016
Some of the information in this presentation may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of JSC VTB Bank ("VTB") and its subsidiaries (together with VTB, the "Group"). Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding the Group's present and future business strategies and the environment in which the Group will operate in the future. We caution you that these statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties and other important factors that we cannot predict with certainty. Accordingly, our actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what we have expressed or forecasted in the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. We do not intend to update these statements to make them conform with actual results.
Andrey Kostin President and Chairman of VTB Bank Management Board
4
2013 1.1 13.6 2005 2014 2015 8.8 12.2 7.4 2012 Legal entities Individuals 2015 18% 2005 2% 2015 11% 2005 5% 17% 13% 19% 7% Customer loans Customer deposits
Total assets RUB trln VTB market share in Russia
− 2nd largest banking group in Russia
− 18% market share in Russia
− 12-fold asset growth for the past ten years
model − leading Russian banking group with strong positioning in all key segments: CIB, Retail banking, Insurance, Leasing, Factoring, etc.
− over 1,900 branches in Russia − presence in 22 countries
– over 20 mln active retail and corporate customers 2015 2005 2015 2005
+29% y-o-y vs market +24% y-o-y
today
5
2016
2004 2005 2008 2010 2011 2013 Launch of Post Bank, a joint venture between VTB and Russian Post
extensive client base
Completion of the BoM integration:
management system
strengthening of VTB Bank’s competitive positions
Organic growth M&A deals
6
Retail Business global business line Corporate – Investment Banking global business line
IT Risk management Audit and Compliance Finance Admin HR Legal PR Security
Assets (1)
RUB trln
7.6 44% 3.8 22% 0.8 5%
Large corporate clients (revenue > RUB 10 bn)
long term relationships with leading Russian companies across all economic sectors
Mid-corporate clients (revenue RUB 0.3 – RUB 10 bn)
profit centre since 2014
Small corporate clients and individuals (revenue <RUB 0.3 bn)
13 thousand ATMs
Mid-Corporate Banking global business line Corporate Centre
(1) Second number represents share of each global business line in VTB Group’s total assets, %
7
2017 – 2019 New development strategy 2014 – 2016 Strategy of quality growth
Maintaining position of Сorporate-Investment banking while further improving its efficiency Outperforming the market growth in Retail banking, and further increasing the share of Retail in the Group’s business mix Prioritising Mid-Corporate banking as a separate operating segment and profit centre while further increasing the market share in Russia Focusing on operating efficiency and stringent cost control Enhancement of Group level risk management and controls Transitioning the Group to unified functional and technological platforms Outperforming the market growth in Retail banking, and further increasing the share of Retail in the Group’s business mix Outperforming the market growth in Mid-Corporate banking in loans and transaction fee income while further growing customer base Maintaining position of Сorporate-Investment banking while further diversifying CIB business mix Prioritising investments in technological platform development and innovations Further consolidation of VTB Group governance structure and enhancement of Group level risk management and controls Focusing on operating efficiency and stringent cost control 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6
Yuri Soloviev First Deputy President and Chairman of VTB Bank Management Board
9
In 2015 CIB managed to achieve
by strong revenue growth, tight cost control and a reduction in provisions vs high 2014 base
position in loans (~23%), deposits (~14%), current accounts (~15%) and across all investment banking products
and Gas, Metals and Mining, Retail, Telecom, Chemicals and lower exposure to Construction, Utilities, Public Sector
commissions driven by cross-sell and new product development
76% 9% 15% 45% 10% 45%
NII NCI Other Income
CIB net income and costs dynamics RUB bn CIB structure of net operating income before provisions
2014 2015
24.2 101.6
29.9
2014 2015 Net operating income Net profit Other income
10 13.6 19.7 23.8 23-24 30-31
2013 2014 2015 2016 (F) 2019 (F)
13.2 19.6 22.8 23-24 29-30
2013 2014 2015 2016 (F) 2019 (F)
CIB loans RUB trln CIB deposits and current accounts RUB trln
low risk appetite of foreign banks to Russia;
to low investment demand and high interest rates.
~22%
CAGR
~8%
CAGR
~23% ~7%
CAGR CAGR
2016F 2019F 2016F 2019F
11
ensure strong revenue growth
more than 400 active client groups
credit portfolio rose from 19.3% in 2013 to 23% in 2015
itself as one of the leading lenders and arrangers of private financings in Sub-Saharan Africa and arranged some strategic financing transactions in CEEMEA and Asia (including debt restructurings, holding company financings and event driven transactions)
Key 2015 achievements
Loan portfolio RUB bn
construction project and several new deals in mining, airport and shipping finance
support program (P-1044)
(1) Key products in L&D segment are Credit, Leveraged Finance and Investments, Infrastructure credits and project finance, Trade finance, Leasing 6,748 7,671 5,186 6,139 2014 2015 +18%
CIB loans and advances (net) Loans and advances to legal entities (net)
+14%
12
CIB GTB segment financial results RUB bn
Deposits and current accounts RUB bn
fees and commissions – by 44%, net interest income – by 121%
market growth
factoring – 33%
custody
Cash Management in the Russian Market. Launched multiple products around Liquidity Management, Channels and Cash & Settlements
controlled companies, including Rostelecom, Transneft, Rostech and Alrosa
ROE hurdle rates
between InterRao and Gazprom EnergoHolding for RUB 13 bn
York Mellon and Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas
2015 Key achievements
13.4 29.1 8.8 12.7 4.3 16.2 2014 2015 3,520 3,940 2,152 3,212 2014 2015 Net profit Net operating income Fees and comissions CIB deposits Deposits of legal entities
13
Securitisation FX Derivatives FX Spot1 Market Share Product Line Fixed Income Equities Global Banking2 42% 49% 26% 75% 30% 22% 2015 Δ from 2013 +22% 52% 1% 33% 4%
+7% +1% +24% +28% +7% Portfolio management Investment Management 5% +8% 0%
1) Estimation of Client FX Market for CIB and MidCap clients 2) 2013 estimation done based on Dealogic database, 2015 – Thomson Reuters “Deal Making in Russia 2015” publication by deal value 3) In net profit (IFRS) Source: VTB Analytical Center
+7% +8%
lines in low Russian Market
M&A segments
increasing market share in all products and winning more international business
the most significant part of Equities business in Russia
Access
Comments DCM ECM M&A Cash equities Structured repo DMA Infrastructure capital Position3 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1 #1-2 #1-2 #10 #1-2 No data #3
FX market
14
Finance magazine
Ant Financial Group
adjustments Credit trading has significantly reduced balance sheet use for linear/non-linear risk and has increased the velocity of position turnover
first physical deals in crude oil, oil products and base metals
Fixed Income
15
Equity Derivatives Volatility Trading, Repo, Private Equity & Special Situations (PESS) and Infrastructure Capital & Project Finance (IC&PF)
being pro-actively marketed to clients as we continue to add functionality and new market connectivity;
business
Equity Firm in Russia” from Private Equity International (#2 in CEE since the category was expanded);
without increasing headcount
across M&A, ECM and DCM activity (verified by ThomsonReuters independent research)
related deals)
as in taking private London Stock Exchange companies and in running domestic Russian IPOs
Equities Global Banking
16
17
CIB market position Product development Operational efficiency
advisory
Southern Europe
▪
Focus on new product development: commodities, trade finance, project finance, structured financing solutions
▪
New solutions in Cash management techniques
▪
Direct market Access platform development
▪
Further growth of cross-sell opportunities: increase number of products per one client
▪
Operating platform realignment to decrease share of hard currency CIB denominated costs
Mikhail Zadornov President and Chairman of VTB24 Management Board
19
10% 38% 46%
10.9 10.7
10% 40% 45% 5% 27% 10% 10%
7.7
6% 8% 50% 10% 9% 28%
10.0
53%
11.3
54% 9% 42%
15 - 15.5
43% 10% 6% 32%
Retail loans RUB trln
18.6
82% 18% 19% 19%
14.3
15%
23.2
83%
26.0
85% 17% 81%
17.0
81% 16%
34 - 35
84%
Retail deposits RUB trln
Car loans Credit cards Cash loans Mortgage
Small business loans RUB trln
Small business RUB trln
2.4 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.6 3.1-3.3
2013 2012 2014 2016F 2015 2019F
3.1 3.0
30% 2015 70% 2016F 81% 19% 21% 79%
2.6
2014 69% 31% 31% 69% 2013 2012
2.1 2.4
69% 31% 2019F
3.3-3.5
CAGR
+11% +10% +18% +11%
CAGR CAGR CAGR
+4%
CAGR
+6%
CAGR
2013 2012 2014 2016F 2015 2019F 2013 2012 2014 2016F 2015 2019F
+13%
CAGR
+3%
CAGR
Current accounts Term deposits Current accounts Term deposits
20
12.7% 14.4% 15.0% 1.2% 2.7% 2.9% 0.6% 0.9%
18.8% 17.8% 13.9%
7.5% 8.7% 9.2% 1.2% 1.8% 1.8%
11.2% 10.7% 8.7%
5.0% 5.6% 6.7% 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 5.2% 10.0% 11.3% 1.4% 1.3% 1.7%
Retail loans Retail deposits and current accounts Small business loans Small business deposits and current accounts
VTB24 Ex-Bank of Moscow 2012 2015 2016F 2012 2015 2016F
+3.9 p.p. +1.0 p.p. +2.0 p.p. +0.5 p.p.
2012 2015 2016F
7.9% 6.9% 5.6% +1.3 p.p. +1.0 p.p.
2012 2015 2016F
13.1% 11.4% 6.6% +4.8 p.p. +1.7 p.p.
0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
VTB24 Ex-Bank of Moscow VTB24 Ex-Bank of Moscow Leto / Post Bank VTB24 Ex-Bank of Moscow Leto / Post Bank & VTB Bank
21 50.8 37.6 16.9
2013 2014 2015
Profitability of VTB Group’s Retail business RUB bn
48% 46% 56%
CIR
136.2 157.6
Net operating income Net profit
166.0
22
VTB Group customer base (active customers) in 2015 mln
9.0 1.1 1.9 11.5 10.4 1.3 19.9 Total customer base VTB Pension Fund VTB Insurance Banking customers, total BoM Post Bank (ex-Leto Bank) VTB24 De-duplication
De-duplication
23 2,544 (29%) 1,679 (19%) 2,526 (29%) 2,290 (25%) 2,466 (28%) 3,133 (35%) 1,253 (14%) 1,932 (21%)
8,789 9,033
VTB24 customer segments (active customers) thsd
2013 2015
Affluent + HNWI Upper mass Mass Lower mass
+7 p.p. +7 p.p.
24
Average loan portfolio RUB bn / % and cost of risk %
596 748 826 109 95 81 436 445 445 68 73 78 204 174 148 8 41 63 2015 2016F 2014
1,422 1,577 1,641
Small business Mortgage Car loans Cash loans Credit cards Other
+11% +4%
42% 8% 30% 5% 14% 1% 47% 6% 28% 5% 11% 3% 50% 5% 27% 5% 9% 4% 100% 100% 100% Cost of risk
4.4% 3.6% 3.2%
25 10.1 11.0 17.0 2.0 2.0
378 530 576 627 646 603 630 2,600
4,312
455 (42%) 2016F
+52%
1,713
309 (45%)
687
2012 537 (50%) 2014 470 (45%)
1,649
2015 Standard offices Offices with affluent zones Leto/Post Bank and ex-BoM Post-office branches 2014
12.1 13.4
2017F 2015
0.4
VTB24 Ex-BoM Leto/Post Bank
Branch network ATM thsd
+11% +27%
+161%
26
Active users of online & mobile banking % of active clients
50.6% 16.6% 27.1% 21.2% 7.0% 9.1% 4.4% 4.4% 5.5% 3.4% 18.5% 28.9% 42.2% 49.3% 12.8% 2.6% 9.8% 3.6% 2.5% 2.2% 3.5% 4.4% 3.0%
8.3% 45.2% 33.3% 22.0% BoM 5.6% 6.3%
0.8%
VTB24 15.2% 8.0% 10.6%
Global Leaders
50.8%
1.5% CEE Avg 1.5%
16.8% 23.8% 28.1%
1.1%
29.4% 51.6%
1.0%
х1.4
Active users of online & mobile banking as of 1H’2014 Input of 1H’2014-1H’2015 Input of 2H’2015 “Online&mobile” benchmarking study by Finalta among Russian banks Russia Avg 2015 Russia Avg Top 3
27
2015 2016F
151,969
49%
316,091
54% +129%
Sales of consumer loans RUB mln
2016F 41%
364,256 449,144
27% 2015 +87%
Sales of credit cards No. of cards
49% 2016F
418,956
2015
195,724
56% +87%
Sales of affluent bundles (“Privilege”) No. of bundles
Share of CRM
VTB24 business plans for selected products and CRM
+108% +23% +114%
28
Share of clients with salary accounts, 2014 % of active clients
47.0% 42.0% 36.0% 35.0% 32.0% 32.0% 22.0% 19.0% 12.0% 3.0% 29.0% Russia Average BoM VTB24
“Branch productivity” benchmarking study by Finalta among Russian banks
29
Market share and financial performance
Customers
▪
Increase number of active customers through new customers acquisition and current customers reactivation
▪
Continue developing as a multi-brand model to target different client segments (e.g. focus VTB24 on mass-affluent and affluent segments and Post Bank
▪
X-sell: increase number of products per customer
▪
Customer experience: improve customer satisfaction (NPS)
Multi-channel
▪
Continue developing multi-channel model:
Operational efficiency
▪
Achieve high-level of operational efficiency: number of customers per branch employee, sales per branch employee
▪
Continue further centralisation of back-office functions
Post bank
▪
Successfully realise a joint project with Russian Post
IT
▪
Mid 2017 – completion of VTB24 IT overhaul
▪
YE’2019 – harmonisation of VTB Group retail IT landscape
30
Customers
Post Bank logo and branch format Key numbers (2023): Branches in Post offices Top-3 retail bank in Russia 15,000 >17 mln Top-3 Key numbers (2023)
31 6.7 15.6 52% 60%
1 20 2 5
3 25
Loan portfolio (gross) RUB bn Customer deposits RUB bn Net operating income RUB bn
60 103 14 15 4 8
78 126
2015 2016F Credit cards POS
Net profit RUB bn
0.1 CIR +62%
2015 2016F
х8.6
Term deposits Current accounts
+131%
Cash loans 2015 2016F 2015 2016F
Herbert Moos Deputy President and Chairman of VTB Bank Management Board
33 5.5% 7.9% 12.6% 108.0 98.0 52.0
2013 2014 2015
31.8 38.0 61.2
Oil price USD and exchange rate RUB Inflation and CBR key rate Russian macroeconomic indicators
USD/RUB (avg) Oil price (Urals, avg) Investments in fixed capital GDP Industrial production Retail turnover
1.3% 0.6%
0.8%
0.4% 1.7%
3.9% 2.7%
2013 2014 2015
6.8% 7.8% 15.6%
2013 2014 2015
(1) In its current form key rate was introduced by the Bank of Russia in September 2013. Average figure for 2013 is calculated based on the period from September 13, 2013 till December 31, 2013.
CPI inflation (avg) CBR key rate (avg) (1)
+7.8 p.p. +1 p.p.
34 313 534 635
2013 2014 2015
4.7% 5.8% 6.3% 10.9% 9.8% 12.4% 14.7% 12.0% 14.3% 807 998 1,316 1,516 1,217 1,093
2013 2014 2015
Total assets RUB bn Customer funding RUB bn
8,769 12,191 13,642
2013 2014 2015
4,383 5,669 7,267
2013 2014 2015
BIS Group capital RUB bn NPLs (90+) RUB bn
115.5% 114.8% 105.8%
Total CAR Tier I ratio Tier I capital Total capital NPL coverage ratio
151% 157% 139%
LDR
+12% +39% +28% +29% +25% +11%
NPL ratio NPL
35 99.2 275.4 178.1
2013 2014 2015
1.6% 3.4% 1.8%
Net interest income RUB bn Provisions charge (1) RUB bn Net fee and commission income (NFCI) RUB bn Net profit RUB bn
316.9 347.3 289.1
2013 2014 2015
4.4% 4.0% 2.6% 100.5 0.8 1.7
2013 2014 2015
11.8% 0.1% 0.1% 55.4 63.1 76.2
2013 2014 2015 NIM Share of NFCI in operating income before provisions
13% 12% 19%
+10% +21% +14%
CoR ROE
+178% +113%
(1) Including provision charge for impairment of debt financial assets and provision charge for impairment of other assets, credit related commitments and legal claims.
36
Indicator Measurement Optimistic scenario Conservative scenario Marco
GDP, nominal % YoY 0.5
CPI inflation % YoY 7.0 7.6 Oil price (Urals), average USD/bbl 50 40 CBR key rate, average % 9.1 10.0
Banking sector
Loans to legal entities % YoY 5-10 0-5 Loans to individuals % YoY 5-10 0-5
VTB Group
Loans to legal entities % YoY In line with the market In line with the market Loans to individuals % YoY Above the market Above the market NIM % ≈4.0 >3.0 CoR % ≈2.0 >2.0 Cost growth % YoY In line with inflation In line with inflation Net profit RUB bn ≈50 >0 NPL coverage ratio % Above 100 Above 100
37
GDP growth Y-o-Y Oil price (Urals), average USD/bbl CPI inflation Dec / Dec CBR key policy rate EOP
≈2% ≈2.0-2.5% ≈2.0-2.5%
2017F 2018F 2019F
55 60 60
2017F 2018F 2019F
5.5 – 6.5% 4.5 – 5.5% 4.0 – 5.0%
2017F 2018F 2019F
6.5 – 7.5% 5.5 – 6.5% 5.5 – 6.5%
2017F 2018F 2019F
38 12.0 - 12.5 13.0 - 13.5 15.0 - 15.5
2017F 2018F 2019F
Loans to legal entities RUB trln Loans to individuals RUB trln Deposits of legal entities RUB trln Deposits of individuals RUB trln
36 - 37 40 - 41 44 - 45
2017F 2018F 2019F +10-12%
Y-o-Y avg growth rate
VTB market share +10-15%
Y-o-Y avg growth rate
VTB market share
32 - 33 36 - 37 40 - 41
2017F 2018F 2019F
28 - 29 31 - 32 34 - 35
2017F 2018F 2019F VTB market share VTB market share +10-12%
Y-o-Y avg growth rate
+9-11%
Y-o-Y avg growth rate 2015 2019 2015 2019 2015 2019 2015 2019
18% 23% 11% 16% 14% 11% 13% 11%
39
Indicator Measurement 2017 – 2019 Loans to legal entities % YoY In line with the market Loans to individuals % YoY Above the market NIM % ≈4.0 CoR % ≈2.0 CIR % 2019: low 40th ROE % 2017-2018: >5.0 2019: ≈11.0 NPL coverage ratio % Above 100
40
Key objectives
cost
IT reliability and security
market Consolidation and virtualisation of IT infrastructure Product and channel innovation
integrated infrastructure of data processing centers in Russia
and dynamic capacity management
workstations
mobility
services available through mobile and internet banking
experience
product platform)
innovation cycle Simplification of IT landscape
applications
Data analytics
granularity through introduction of CDO function and methodology
tools and mobile analytics
Cyber security
41 10% 3% 6% 10% 9% 62% 222
Future projections 2015
Key initiatives Staff costs and administrative expense RUB bn Realignment of costs structure RUB bn
Staff costs Administrative expenses Cost / Avg. assets
62% 56% 60% 38% 44% 40% 222 223 198
2015 2014 2013
1.8% 2.2% 2.4%
1
Completion of integration of the Bank of Moscow
2 3 4 5
Further consolidation of support and control functions Deeper penetration of remote channel client servicing Streamlining of business processes / lean practices Optimisation of international footprint
Other expenses Taxes Leasing and rent expenses IT expenses Depreciation and other expenses related to premises and equipment Staff costs Other expenses Taxes Leasing and rent expenses IT expenses Depreciation and other expenses related to premises and equipment Staff costs FLAT DOWN UP DOWN FLAT FLAT
2017 – 2019 Trends
42
were integrated into centralised risk management system
Group level down to subsidiaries and global business lines
(corporate & retail) were fine‐tuned in accordance with the Basel II requirements
implemented, Crisis management body was established
Global CRO Deputy CRO Corporate credit Deputy CRO Integrated risks Deputy CRO Retail
Credit risk management Credit application analysis Consolidated risks Head of Risks CIB International
Loan monitoring and pre-workout Operational risks Head of risks in subsidiaries
VTB Group risk management competence centers
Risk management departments in subsidiaries
Market & Liquidity risks Subsidiaries
Centralised risk management
Risk management coordination
Key developments in 2014–2015 Key priorities for 2016 and beyond
(such as ECaP and RAROC) in business decision process and business-planning
availability of up-to-date detailed data on VTB risk profile
management competence center
Management board
Risk appetite statement, risk management policies
Credit committees
Corporate credit and investment decisions
Loan monitoring committee
Monitoring exposures and loan workout, control of risk mitigation procedures
Retail risk committee
Managing risks in the Retail segment Credit risks methodology
Risk committee
Risk methodology, portfolio risk management
43
Total liabilities structure RUB bn Customer deposits structure RUB bn Comfortable wholesale debt repayment schedule (1) USD mln
1,937 1,761 25 283 160 312 2,220 1,921 827 1,339 236
2016 2017 2018 2020 2022 2024 2035
CHF AUD USD 60% 69% 12,188 ≈16,000
2015 2019F
Customer deposits
20% 22% 7,267 ≈11,000
2015 2019F
Current accounts
(1) Net of bought back public debt. Exchange rates published by the CBR as of April 14, 2016. In addition to international debt, VTB Group currently has RUB 61 bn domestic bonds.
+ 9 pp + 2 pp
International debt repaid and bought back since mid-2014:
USD 11.6 bn
44 6.1 9.2 15.0 15.0 15.2 15.2 2.8 17.9 6.1 9.2 15.0 15.0 18.0 33.1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Tier I CAR (Basel I)
13% 12% 11%
2017F 2018F 2019F 10.5% comfort zone threshold
Dividend payout 2016 – 2019 ≥ 25% of the Group’s net profit under IFRS Dividend payout RUB bn
14% 13% 13%
2017F 2018F 2019F
Total CAR (Basel I)
Dividend payout ratio
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(1) % of net profit in accordance with RAS 14 38 83 44 91 67 % of net profit in accordance with IFRS 11 10 17 15 2,250 1,947
Dividend payout for preference shares Dividend payout for
(1) VTB Bank Supervisory Council recommendation on 2015 dividend payment.
(1)