2014 Earnings Guidance Presentation
December 6, 2013
2014 Earnings Guidance Presentation December 6, 2013 Safe Harbor - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2014 Earnings Guidance Presentation December 6, 2013 Safe Harbor Statement Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events of PNM Resources (PNMR), Public Service Company of New Mexicos (PNM), or Texas - New
December 6, 2013
Non-GAAP Financial Measures For an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings, ongoing earnings per diluted share, and ongoing EBITDA), as well as a reconciliation to GAAP measures, please refer to the Company’s website as follows: http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm. Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events of PNM Resources’ (“PNMR”), Public Service Company of New Mexico’s (“PNM”), or Texas-New Mexico Power Company’s (“TNMP”) (collectively, the “Company”) expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets, and strategies are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned that all forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates. PNMR, PNM, and TNMP assume no obligation to update this
looking statements, PNMR, PNM, and TNMP caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements. PNMR's, PNM's, and TNMP's business, financial condition, cash flow, and operating results are influenced by many factors, which are often beyond their control, that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed
affecting forward-looking statements, please see the Company’s Form 10-K and 10-Q filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which factors are specifically incorporated by reference herein. 2
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2012 2013E 2014E
Guidance Midpoint $1.38 Guidance Midpoint $1.47 $1.31
(1) Assumes midpoints of guidance ranges (2) Assumes mid-point of 2014 guidance range
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Employment growth continues in Texas Sales growth at TNMP driven by the strong Texas economy
2014 load projection 1% - 3%(2) 2014 expected customer growth 1%
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
Energy Sales, GWh Total Consumers
TNMP Consumers and Retail Energy Sales(1)
Energy Sales Consumers
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Oct
Employment Growth Rates
(12 month moving average) Texas Houston Metro Dallas Metro
(1)Excludes Transmission Service end-users (2)Weather-normalized
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Albuquerque Metro rolling 12 month employment growth in positive territory
0.0% 2.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Oct
Employment Growth Rates
(12 month moving average) New Mexico Albuquerque Metro
Modest customer growth at PNM offset by declining energy sales
2014 load projection (1%) - 0%(2) 2014 expected customer growth 0.5%
4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000
Energy Sales, GWh Total Customers
PNM Customers and Retail Energy Sales(1)
Energy Sales Customers
(1)Excludes Economy Service customers (2)Weather-normalized
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Potential Settlement Timeframe NMPRC Extension Period (6 months) NMPRC Review Period (9 months) Filing Submitted to NMPRC
BART Filing Timeline
2014 Q1 2015 Dec. 2013
PNM $1.15 - $1.21 TNMP $0.38 - $0.40 Corp/Other ($0.11) – ($0.09)
2013 Guidance Range(1) 2014 Guidance Range
(1) Guidance range originally $1.32 - $1.42. Narrowed to $1.35 - $1.41 on November 1, 2013.
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2013E – 2014E Key Performance Drivers Year-over-Year ∆ EPS Renewable rider $0.03 Palo Verde Unit 3 $0.03 Delta Person Generation Station $0.02 AFUDC $0.01 - $0.02 FERC Generation Gallup contract $0.01 - $0.02 FERC Transmission rate relief $0.01 PV3 Nuclear Decommissioning Trust $0.00 - $0.02 Outage costs ($0.01) 2013 Weather ($0.02) Load ($0.05) - $0.00 Depreciation and property tax ($0.05) - ($0.04)
2012 2013E 2014E $1.14 $1.15 - $1.21
PNM EPS
$1.15 - $1.18
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$0.33 2012 2013E 2014E $0.38 - $0.40 $0.33 - $0.35
TNMP EPS
2013E – 2014E Key Performance Drivers Year-over-Year ∆ EPS TCOS rate relief $0.04 Load $0.01 - $0.03 2013 Weather $0.01 Depreciation and property tax ($0.03) - ($0.02)
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2015 2016 PNM Renewable rider rate increase January PV1 half-priced lease payments, $16.5M annual lease reduction (until next general rate case) January Rate increase—would include potential purchase
January TNMP TCOS rate increase Twice / year Twice / year Corporate/Other Retirement of $120M holding company 9¼% debt May
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$166 $180 $189 $195 $201 $159 $213 $157 $263 $117 $154 $136 $71 $72 $65 $49 $86 $130 $76 $88 $94 $106
$18 $14 $14 $14 $14
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
(In millions)
PNM Generation PNM T&D PNM Renewables TNMP Other Depreciation
$511 $524 $330 $443 $302
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2014 – 2018 Total Capital Plan: $2.1B
Amounts may not add due to rounding
PNM Rate Base CAGR: 5 - 7% TNMP Rate Base CAGR: 5 - 7%
growth while staying in the target payout ratio range
(1) Indicated annual rate (2) Assumes mid-point of the 2014 guidance range (3) Based on 12/03/13 stock price of $22.96
14 $0.50 $0.58 $0.66 $0.74 Feb'11 Feb'12 Feb'13 Dec'13
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Regulatory Success Operational Excellence Customer Satisfaction Cost Control
amounts shown are before tax
2014 Assumptions
2014 Weather
(1%) to 0% 1% = $0.05 Palo Verde Unit 3 sales price ($/MWh) ~$37 O&M increase
$15M PV3 NDT gains $6M - $9M Tax rate 36.5% Average PNM Resources diluted shares outstanding 80.4M
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amounts shown are before tax
2014 Assumptions
2014 Weather
1.0% - 3.0% 1% = $0.01 O&M increase
36.3% Average PNM Resources diluted shares outstanding 80.4M
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($0.16) 2012 2013E 2014E ($0.13) – ($0.12) ($0.11) – ($0.09)
Corporate and Other EPS
2013E – 2014E Key Performance Drivers and Assumptions Year-over-Year ∆ EPS Interest $0.02 - $0.03 Tax rate 36.5% Average PNM Resources diluted shares outstanding 80.4M
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Allowed Return Equity Ratio 2014 Average Rate Base PNM Retail and renewables 10% 50% $2B FERC Transmission 10% 50% $170M FERC Generation 9%–10% 50% $70M TNMP 10.125% 45% $620M Total $2.8B
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2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
PNM Avg. Rate Base
(In billions) Retail FERC Generation FERC Transmission $2.1 $2.2 $2.5 $2.2
$520 $620 $690 $720
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
TNMP Avg. Rate Base
(In millions)
Ongoing EBITDA (In millions) 2013E 2014E
Consolidated PNMR $469 - $477 $468 - $486 PNM $345 - $349 $329 - $338 TNMP $121 - $123 $127 - $131
13% 26% 45% 16% Q1 2014E Q2 2014E Q3 2014E Q4 2014E 2014 Quarterly Earnings Distribution
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extended to 2018
for additional liquidity of $100M and $50M, respectively
PNM TNMP Corporate/ Other PNM Resources Consolidated Liquidity as of November 29, 2013 (in millions) Total Revolver Capacity $400.0 $75.0 $300.0 $775.0 Less short-term debt and LOC balances 3.2 10.3 19.0 32.5 Plus invested cash 4.2
5.9 Total Available Liquidity $401.0 $64.7 $282.7 $748.4 23
No equity issuance planned with current capital expenditure schedule
Unit Duration in Days Time Period San Juan
1 13 Q1 2014 2 29 Q1 2014 1 46 Q1 2015 4 46 Q4 2015
Four Corners
5 38 Q2 2014 4 13 Q4 2014 5 73 Q1 – Q2 2015
Palo Verde
2 34 Q2 2014 1 34 Q4 2014 3 34 Q2 2015 2 34 Q4 2015
2014 - 2015 Outage Schedule
87.3% 80.9% 89.9% 75.2% 77.4% 91.3%
San Juan Four Corners Palo Verde
12 months ended 9/30/12 12 months ended 9/30/13
(1)Annual top quartile numbers from the North American Electricity Reliability Corporation as of September 2012.
Annual Top Quartile Numbers(1) Coal 85% Nuclear 93%
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Action Item Expected Start Expected Completion Actual Completion
NMED develops new SIP and submits to EIB May 21, 2013 EIB approval of new SIP submitted by NMED September 5, 2013 Submitted to EPA for approval October 18, 2013 EPA review and approval of RSIP Q4 2013 Q3 2014 NMPRC approval for retirement and potential replacement power December 2013 Q4 2014 – Q1 2015 SNCR construction Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Units 2 & 3 shut down December 31, 2017
Currently Next Step
Awaiting EPA review and approval Submit NMPRC filing for retirement and potential replacement power
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