2014 Earnings Guidance Presentation December 6, 2013 Safe Harbor - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2014 earnings guidance presentation
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2014 Earnings Guidance Presentation December 6, 2013 Safe Harbor - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2014 Earnings Guidance Presentation December 6, 2013 Safe Harbor Statement Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events of PNM Resources (PNMR), Public Service Company of New Mexicos (PNM), or Texas - New


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SLIDE 1

2014 Earnings Guidance Presentation

December 6, 2013

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SLIDE 2

Safe Harbor Statement

Non-GAAP Financial Measures For an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings, ongoing earnings per diluted share, and ongoing EBITDA), as well as a reconciliation to GAAP measures, please refer to the Company’s website as follows: http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm. Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events of PNM Resources’ (“PNMR”), Public Service Company of New Mexico’s (“PNM”), or Texas-New Mexico Power Company’s (“TNMP”) (collectively, the “Company”) expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets, and strategies are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned that all forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates. PNMR, PNM, and TNMP assume no obligation to update this

  • information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-

looking statements, PNMR, PNM, and TNMP caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements. PNMR's, PNM's, and TNMP's business, financial condition, cash flow, and operating results are influenced by many factors, which are often beyond their control, that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed

  • r implied by the forward-looking statements. For a discussion of risk factors and other important factors

affecting forward-looking statements, please see the Company’s Form 10-K and 10-Q filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which factors are specifically incorporated by reference herein. 2

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SLIDE 3

Opening Remarks & Overview

Pat Vincent-Collawn

Chairman, President and CEO

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SLIDE 4

2014 Ongoing Guidance and Dividend Increase

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2012 2013E 2014E

Guidance Midpoint $1.38 Guidance Midpoint $1.47 $1.31

Remain on track for 10 – 13% total return by 2016

  • 2014 Ongoing Guidance $1.42 - $1.52
  • 6% growth over 2013(1)
  • Dividend increased 12% to $0.74
  • Achieves a 50% payout ratio(2)

(1) Assumes midpoints of guidance ranges (2) Assumes mid-point of 2014 guidance range

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SLIDE 5

Texas Economic Conditions

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Employment growth continues in Texas Sales growth at TNMP driven by the strong Texas economy

2014 load projection 1% - 3%(2) 2014 expected customer growth 1%

  • 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

Energy Sales, GWh Total Consumers

TNMP Consumers and Retail Energy Sales(1)

Energy Sales Consumers

  • 4.0%
  • 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Oct

Employment Growth Rates

(12 month moving average) Texas Houston Metro Dallas Metro

(1)Excludes Transmission Service end-users (2)Weather-normalized

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SLIDE 6

New Mexico Economic Conditions

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Albuquerque Metro rolling 12 month employment growth in positive territory

  • 6.0%
  • 4.0%
  • 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Oct

Employment Growth Rates

(12 month moving average) New Mexico Albuquerque Metro

Modest customer growth at PNM offset by declining energy sales

2014 load projection (1%) - 0%(2) 2014 expected customer growth 0.5%

  • 2,000

4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000

Energy Sales, GWh Total Customers

PNM Customers and Retail Energy Sales(1)

Energy Sales Customers

(1)Excludes Economy Service customers (2)Weather-normalized

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SLIDE 7

NMPRC BART Filing

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Potential Settlement Timeframe NMPRC Extension Period (6 months) NMPRC Review Period (9 months) Filing Submitted to NMPRC

BART Filing Timeline

2014 Q1 2015 Dec. 2013

  • PNM’s BART Filing will be submitted to the NMPRC in December and will address:
  • Retirement of San Juan Units 2 and 3 and recovery of undepreciated investments ($205M)
  • Installation of SNCR technology on San Juan Units 1 and 4 ($82M)
  • CCNs for Palo Verde Unit 3 and at least 78 MW of San Juan Unit 4
  • Proposed replacement power: 177 MW gas peaker ($189M) and 40 MW solar facility ($87M)
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SLIDE 8

2014 Guidance

Chuck Eldred

Executive Vice President and CFO

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SLIDE 9

Consolidated Guidance (Ongoing)

$1.42 Consolidated EPS $1.52

PNM $1.15 - $1.21 TNMP $0.38 - $0.40 Corp/Other ($0.11) – ($0.09)

$1.35 Consolidated EPS $1.41

2013 Guidance Range(1) 2014 Guidance Range

(1) Guidance range originally $1.32 - $1.42. Narrowed to $1.35 - $1.41 on November 1, 2013.

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SLIDE 10

2013E – 2014E Key Performance Drivers Year-over-Year ∆ EPS Renewable rider $0.03 Palo Verde Unit 3 $0.03 Delta Person Generation Station $0.02 AFUDC $0.01 - $0.02 FERC Generation Gallup contract $0.01 - $0.02 FERC Transmission rate relief $0.01 PV3 Nuclear Decommissioning Trust $0.00 - $0.02 Outage costs ($0.01) 2013 Weather ($0.02) Load ($0.05) - $0.00 Depreciation and property tax ($0.05) - ($0.04)

2012 2013E 2014E $1.14 $1.15 - $1.21

PNM EPS

PNM Guidance (Ongoing)

$1.15 - $1.18

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SLIDE 11

$0.33 2012 2013E 2014E $0.38 - $0.40 $0.33 - $0.35

TNMP EPS

2013E – 2014E Key Performance Drivers Year-over-Year ∆ EPS TCOS rate relief $0.04 Load $0.01 - $0.03 2013 Weather $0.01 Depreciation and property tax ($0.03) - ($0.02)

TNMP Guidance (Ongoing)

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SLIDE 12

Future Earnings Growth Drivers

2015 2016 PNM Renewable rider rate increase January PV1 half-priced lease payments, $16.5M annual lease reduction (until next general rate case) January Rate increase—would include potential purchase

  • f PV2 leases, renewables and SNCR equipment

January TNMP TCOS rate increase Twice / year Twice / year Corporate/Other Retirement of $120M holding company 9¼% debt May

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SLIDE 13

$166 $180 $189 $195 $201 $159 $213 $157 $263 $117 $154 $136 $71 $72 $65 $49 $86 $130 $76 $88 $94 $106

$18 $14 $14 $14 $14

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(In millions)

PNM Generation PNM T&D PNM Renewables TNMP Other Depreciation

$511 $524 $330 $443 $302

Rate Base Growth

Total Capital Spending

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2014 – 2018 Total Capital Plan: $2.1B

Amounts may not add due to rounding

PNM Rate Base CAGR: 5 - 7% TNMP Rate Base CAGR: 5 - 7%

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SLIDE 14

Strong Dividend Growth

  • The annual common stock dividend raised

by 12% in December 2013 to $0.74 per share

  • Long-term target: 50% - 60% payout ratio
  • Expect above industry average dividend

growth while staying in the target payout ratio range

  • The Board will continue to evaluate the

dividend on an annual basis, considering:

  • Sustainability and growth
  • Capital planning
  • Industry standards
  • Next dividend review in December 2014

Dividend rate: $0.74 (1) Payout ratio: 50% (2) Dividend yield: 3.2% (3)

(1) Indicated annual rate (2) Assumes mid-point of the 2014 guidance range (3) Based on 12/03/13 stock price of $22.96

14 $0.50 $0.58 $0.66 $0.74 Feb'11 Feb'12 Feb'13 Dec'13

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SLIDE 15

2014 Strategic Goals and Objectives

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Earn authorized returns Deliver top quartile total returns Strengthen credit ratings

Regulatory Success Operational Excellence Customer Satisfaction Cost Control

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SLIDE 16

Questions & Answers

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SLIDE 17

Appendix

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SLIDE 18

PNM Assumptions

amounts shown are before tax

2014 Assumptions

2014 Weather

  • Load

(1%) to 0% 1% = $0.05 Palo Verde Unit 3 sales price ($/MWh) ~$37 O&M increase

  • Outage costs

$15M PV3 NDT gains $6M - $9M Tax rate 36.5% Average PNM Resources diluted shares outstanding 80.4M

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SLIDE 19

TNMP Assumptions

amounts shown are before tax

2014 Assumptions

2014 Weather

  • Load

1.0% - 3.0% 1% = $0.01 O&M increase

  • Tax rate

36.3% Average PNM Resources diluted shares outstanding 80.4M

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SLIDE 20

($0.16) 2012 2013E 2014E ($0.13) – ($0.12) ($0.11) – ($0.09)

Corporate and Other EPS

2013E – 2014E Key Performance Drivers and Assumptions Year-over-Year ∆ EPS Interest $0.02 - $0.03 Tax rate 36.5% Average PNM Resources diluted shares outstanding 80.4M

Corporate and Other Guidance (Ongoing)

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SLIDE 21

Allowed Return Equity Ratio 2014 Average Rate Base PNM Retail and renewables 10% 50% $2B FERC Transmission 10% 50% $170M FERC Generation 9%–10% 50% $70M TNMP 10.125% 45% $620M Total $2.8B

Rate Base

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2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

PNM Avg. Rate Base

(In billions) Retail FERC Generation FERC Transmission $2.1 $2.2 $2.5 $2.2

$520 $620 $690 $720

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

TNMP Avg. Rate Base

(In millions)

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SLIDE 22

EBITDA and Quarterly Earnings Distribution Guidance (Ongoing)

Ongoing EBITDA (In millions) 2013E 2014E

Consolidated PNMR $469 - $477 $468 - $486 PNM $345 - $349 $329 - $338 TNMP $121 - $123 $127 - $131

13% 26% 45% 16% Q1 2014E Q2 2014E Q3 2014E Q4 2014E 2014 Quarterly Earnings Distribution

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SLIDE 23
  • In 2013, PNM, TNMP, and PNM Resources revolving credit facilities were

extended to 2018

  • Targeting cap structure of: 50/50 at PNM and 55/45 at TNMP
  • PNM and TNMP have access to intercompany loans from PNM Resources

for additional liquidity of $100M and $50M, respectively

Liquidity and Capital Structure

PNM TNMP Corporate/ Other PNM Resources Consolidated Liquidity as of November 29, 2013 (in millions) Total Revolver Capacity $400.0 $75.0 $300.0 $775.0 Less short-term debt and LOC balances 3.2 10.3 19.0 32.5 Plus invested cash 4.2

  • 1.7

5.9 Total Available Liquidity $401.0 $64.7 $282.7 $748.4 23

No equity issuance planned with current capital expenditure schedule

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SLIDE 24

Unit Duration in Days Time Period San Juan

1 13 Q1 2014 2 29 Q1 2014 1 46 Q1 2015 4 46 Q4 2015

Four Corners

5 38 Q2 2014 4 13 Q4 2014 5 73 Q1 – Q2 2015

Palo Verde

2 34 Q2 2014 1 34 Q4 2014 3 34 Q2 2015 2 34 Q4 2015

2014 - 2015 Outage Schedule

87.3% 80.9% 89.9% 75.2% 77.4% 91.3%

San Juan Four Corners Palo Verde

12 months ended 9/30/12 12 months ended 9/30/13

(1)Annual top quartile numbers from the North American Electricity Reliability Corporation as of September 2012.

Annual Top Quartile Numbers(1) Coal 85% Nuclear 93%

PNM Plant EAF and Outages

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SLIDE 25

San Juan BART Timeline and Update

Action Item Expected Start Expected Completion Actual Completion

NMED develops new SIP and submits to EIB May 21, 2013 EIB approval of new SIP submitted by NMED September 5, 2013 Submitted to EPA for approval October 18, 2013 EPA review and approval of RSIP Q4 2013 Q3 2014 NMPRC approval for retirement and potential replacement power December 2013 Q4 2014 – Q1 2015 SNCR construction Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Units 2 & 3 shut down December 31, 2017

Currently Next Step

Awaiting EPA review and approval Submit NMPRC filing for retirement and potential replacement power

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