2012 Annual Passenger Counts Joint Powers Board Meeting April 5, 2012
Presentation Outline • Purpose and Count Methodology 2012 Count Results • • Conclusions and Next Steps •2
Purpose of Ridership Counts Provide a measurement relative to previous • years Data for evaluating service changes • - Identify trends: station, time, train, direction Allocate resources • Validate revenue-based ridership estimates • • Identify potential access issues - Parking capacity, connectivity •3
Data Collection Methodology Headcounts on every weekday train • averaged over 5 weekdays • Headcount on every weekend train for one weekend only • Cost of approximately $200,000 Differs from monthly revenue based on • average weekday ridership Count data adjusted for previous years to • correct counting data error First time bikes denied boarding counted • •4
AWR: 1997 – 2012 86 trains 98 trains 96 trains 96 trains 90 trains 96 trains 86 trains 76 trains 5
Riders by Time Period: 2011 vs 2012 Feb 2011 Feb 2012 86 Trains 86 Trains Difference % Change Traditional 18,262 20,473 2,211 12.1% Peak 4,587 4,870 283 6.2% Midday Reverse 12,768 14,353 1,585 12.4% Peak 2,162 2,658 497 23.0% Night 37,779 42,354 4,576 12.1% TOTAL 6
2011 Station Ridership • 27 Stations increased ridership 2011 vs 2012 San Fran 774 Hillsdale 214 Sunnyvale 177 22 nd St. 216 Belmont 85 Lawrence 76 Bayshore 27 San Carlos 67 Santa Clara 60 SSF 24 Redwood City 293 College Park 11 San Bruno 28 Menlo Park 159 San Jose 507 Millbrae 279 Palo Alto 632 Tamien 76 Burlingame 74 California Ave. 174 Capitol 8 San Mateo 130 San Antonio 133 Morgan Hill 7 Hayward Park 39 Mountain View 301 Gilroy 3 • 2 stations decreased/maintained ridership 2011 vs 2012 Blossom Hill -1 San Martin 0 7
Station Rank - Top 10 2011 2012 86 trains 86 trains Change % AWR Station Rank AWR Rank AWR In AWR Growth San Francisco 1 8,897 1 9,670 774 8.7% Palo Alto 2 2 4,028 4,661 632 15.7% Mountain View 3 3 3,368 3,670 301 8.9% San Jose Diridon 4 2,681 4 3,187 507 18.9% Millbrae 5 2,600 5 2,880 279 10.7% Redwood City 6 2,106 6 2,399 293 13.9% Hillsdale 7 1,883 7 2,097 214 11.4% Sunnyvale 8 8 1,787 1,965 177 9.9% Menlo Park 9 9 1,347 1,477 130 9.7% San Mateo 10 1,312 10 1,471 159 12.1% 8
County-by-County Comparison County 2011 AWR 2012 AWR Change % San Francisco 10,071 11,088 1,017 10.1% San Mateo 12,285 13,678 1,393 11.3% Santa Clara 15,423 17,588 2,165 14.0% TOTAL 37,779 42,354 4,575 12.1% All counties see double digit increase in ridership 9
Gilroy Extension Ridership Gilroy extension ridership was declining prior to • introduction of Baby Bullet service - Numbers represent cumulative ridership for 4 stations - 2001: 1524 - 2005: 598 • FY 2006 Service was reduced to 3 trains - 2009 counts: 393 - 2010 counts: 323 (-70 AWR) - 2011 counts: 348 (+25 AWR) - 2012 counts: 366 (+18 AWR) • Ridership has decreased 6.8% since 2009 10
2012 Riders per Train Type Peak-period average ridership per train type Feb Feb Percent Train Type 2011 2012 Change 547 615 12.4% Baby Bullet 472 532 12.9% Limited 288 304 5.5% Local • Robust growth on all service types; particularly those with shorter travel times • Demonstrates the need for a family of services 11
2012 Maximum Loads - Top 5 NORTHBOUND February Peak Month (adjusted +16%) Train # Depart SJ Max Load Seats Full Max Load Seats Full 329 8:03 AM 698 107% 810 125% 323 7:45 AM 675 104% 783 120% 369 4:45 PM 625 96% 725 112% 319 7:03 AM 607 93% 704 108% 217 6:57 AM 577 89% 670 103% SOUTHBOUND February Peak Month (adjusted +16%) Train # Depart SF Max Load Seats Full Max Load Seats Full 378 5:33 PM 675 104% 783 120% 324 8:14 AM 626 96% 726 112% 280 5:56 PM 616 95% 715 110% 372 5:14 PM 609 94% 707 109% 314 7:14 AM 575 88% 667 103% 12
Midday Boardings: 2011 to 2012 NORTHBOUND SOUTHBOUND Total Boardings % Total Boardings % Train 2011 2012 Change Train 2011 2012 Change 135 480 555 15.6% 134 395 474 19.8% 237 - - - 236 - - - 139 436 432 -1.0% 138 421 436 3.8% 155 391 441 12.7% 154 438 489 11.7% 257 - - - 256 - - - 159 574 582 1.4% 158 780 846 8.4% TOTAL 1,881 2,009 6.8% TOTAL 2,034 2,246 10.4% • Midday ridership increases despite reduction of 4 trains • Ridership growth particularly on shoulder peak trains
Average Trip Length Average trip length for 2012 has decreased slightly from 23.1 in 2011 Average Trip Length Train Type (miles) 22.8 Weekday 28.3 Baby Bullet 20.1 Peak Non-Baby Bullet 20.5 Off Peak 20.2 All Locals 14
Average Weekday Bicycle Ridership • 2012 saw a 15.8% increase in AWBR • 31% increase in bike spaces completed in June 2011 4,500 4,243 4,000 3,664 3,500 2,890 3,000 2,659 AWBR 2,500 2,271 2,334 2,382 2,000 1,614 1,860 1,500 1,000 500 0 15 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Year
Bikes-Denied Boardings First time bike denials counted • - Will continue to count in future Results consistent with self-reporting and • information shared in Board reading files • Denials found for trains: – 324, Bombardier, at SF, 22 nd , and Millbrae – 369, Bombardier, at Hillsdale and Palo Alto – 378, Gallery, at Millbrae •16
Bicycle Boardings: Top 5 Stations 2011 2012 % Station AWBR AWBR Change 895 San Francisco 1,051 17.5% 430 Palo Alto 520 20.9% 320 Mountain View 374 17.0% 217 Redwood City 263 21.1% 229 San Jose Diridon 248 8.3% 17
2012 Bicycle Top 10 Max Load Train No. Type Departs Max Load AWBR 220 G 7:44 AM SF 73 102 230 G 8:44 AM SF 73 90 267 G 4:39 PM SJ 70 95 277 G 5:39 PM SJ 69 92 373 G 5:25 PM SJ 59 71 324 B 8:14 AM SF 59 68 369 B 4:45 PM SJ 57 66 322 G 7:59 AM SF 57 62 332 G 8:59 AM SF 54 60 379 G 5:45 PM SJ 53 60 B - Bombardier Car; G - Gallery Car
Weekend Service 2011 2012 2011 to 2012 % Change Saturday 12,309 11,460 -849 -6.9% Sunday 8,554 8,746 192 2.2% TOTAL 20,863 20,206 -657 -3.1% 2011 2012 Saturday Sunday Saturday Sunday Broadway 115 59 86 68 Atherton 75 47 56 45 19
Weekend Pilot Bullet Service Ridership decreased but Bullet service • remains robust Southbound (Sat + Sun) Northbound (Sat + Sun) Train Train Feb 2011 Feb 2012 Feb 2011 Feb 2012 428 700 565 427 750 626 802 365 373 801 589 618 430 429 524 496 722 694 442 885 729 441 665 618 804 434 440 803 288 329 444 445 477 389 542 474 20
Conclusions • Ridership is at an all-time high - exceeds previous high seen in 2010 • Sign of local economic recovery All weekday service sees growth • All three counties saw ridership increases • • On-board bike ridership increased with expanded on-board capacity • Weekend, particularly Saturday, ridership decrease under review •21
Next Steps FY 2013 budget remains challenging with fuel price • increases and relies heavily on one-time funding sources Staff remains very concerned about the projected • deficit for FY 2014 which will require finding additional one-time funds absent any dedicated revenue source for Caltrain operations FY 2014 final budget subject to negotiations • between the JPB partners •22
Next Steps Ridership growth strains capacity in peak periods • • Data will be used to develop potential service scenarios that - Positively impact the greatest numbers of customers possible - Balances fiscal constraints with continued growing demand for service - Timing of any service increase must contemplate operator transition to TASI
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