1 2 approach Mark Evans, Mackenzie Tribbeck Associates (Computer - PDF document

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approach Mark Evans, Mackenzie Tribbeck Associates (Computer Consultants) Limited Weybridge, UK Abstract The extensive use of highly specific geo­political and military scenarios for Operational Analysis (OA) and for Threat assessment has imposed unrealistic constraints on military studies. This paper first describes and activities the past use of scenarios before considering an alternative approach using as an example a method produced for the UK Ministry of Defence. The method, using generic characterisations of military operations, is described in detail and observations are made on its usefulness. Finally, future applications of the method are suggested. 3 The use of scenarios in operational analysis and threat prediction – a more generic

A Scenario Projection for the South China Sea; Further Experience with Field Anomaly Relaxation The paper describes the third phase of a research programme intended to validate the Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) approach to the generation of scenarios for socio­ political problems and to suggest improvements to the approach. The research vehicle is the sociopolitical context of the nations of the South China Sea. It is concluded that four main scenarios for that region can be developed and that these shed light on the region's problems. Improved methods were used to generate the Field for the problem and suggestions are made for further research into the FAR approach. The conclusion from the three phases of the research is that FAR is a powerful and sophisticated approach to thinking about the unknowable future. Ronnie Shephard died on 20 June 1995. 4

On the Careful Use of Models The objective of this paper is to stimulate discussion of the current climate for development and application of models. Periodically the analytical community, the use of modeling to support decision making. Over time the literature is replete with reported breakthroughs, successful application warnings about the difficulties of ­ This paper presents a view of some principles which should be observed in developing and using models to support system acquisition decisions. These views are based on several (some painful to recall) experiences, exposure to others efforts, and discussions with colleagues. The role and risk of model support in the advocacy role; the trade­off of transparency and fidelity; the use of models to support decision risk assessments; and some thoughts 5 particularly those involved in support of program decisions, show renewed interest in modeling and the risks inherent in simulation supported decision making . on the question of “ why model?” are among the topics to be discussed.

ISMOR 16 was announced as having no specific theme: but, in fact, three have emerged out of the cosmic dust that tints the horizons not only of Europe (as the quotation states), but world­wide. A practical theme, a conceptual theme and a professional theme (by which I mean an addressed. I shall offer some reflections on each, intended to stimulate their further, active, consideration. My cosmic dust comes from the preface to a book published 101 years ago. Its title is borrowed for this lecture, because, although the answers that we are finding and will find are different, the question posed is exactly the same: what will be the nature of war in the future? 6 The War of the Future ­ Refections on ISMOR 16 axiomatic issue about the purpose and direction of OA as a research activity) have been

The Character of Future Conflicts, Partial Report 1 When focusing on organisations which may constitute a serious threat to nation­states, we find that they mainly consist of organisations capable of acting globally or alternatively co­operating or gaining support from transnational networks. This cooperation yields economic viability and provides access to competence and technology. If, instead, focus is placed on conflicts involving violence or threats of violence, we find that the assault, to a large and probably increasing degree, may come from within the society itself. This is true when a criminal organisation tries to take over the legal institutions in a state, when a warlord takes control over primary commodities, when a fundamentalist religious movement tries to transform a secular state into a theocracy other states. 7 and when a state uses asymmetrical warfare and carries out anonymous assaults on

Remote Sensing, Geographic Information Systems, and Operational Research in Urban Operations In recent years there have been dramatic improvements in remote sensing technologies and geographic information systems to support the analysis of urban operations. Operational research tools like war games and simulations have demonstrated deficiencies in several important aspects. Many tools from remote sensing and geographic information systems should permit improvement in the OR community’s ability to support the military component in urban operations. 8

Factors Influencing the Selection of Method(s) [Abstract not included; first paragraphs below) In general, a method is a series of steps taken to complete a certain task or to reach a certain objective. An OA­method is used for the purpose of making better decisions. In this paper, the term method is used in a broad meaning, including mathematical models over war gaming to soft OA. A reasonable assumption could be that there should be a simple relation between a problem and the selection of method(s) to solve it. You could imagine a “best practice” for solving a certain class of problems. To select a method for a given problem, some factors could be considered... Normative selection process versus reality. 9

First symposium not requiring papers No papers; just presentations; some are more understandable than others. 10

No papers; just presentations; some are more understandable than others. 11

Only one paper; just presentations; some are more understandable than others. The Ronnie Shephard Memorial Lecture was presented by David Shrady, long time participant in ISMOR. It is worth reading. 12

Over 900 papers & presentations All papers from 1 to 22 ISMOR 23: mixed plus 5 posters 24: all slides plus 2 posters 25: mixed plus 1 poster 26: all slides 27: mixed 28: mixed plus Shephard Memorial 29: mixed plus 2 keynotes & Shephard Memorial Presentations: mid 20s to mid 30s; 11 ISMOR: 63! 13