1 2 3 Northeast Pacific California Current Gulf of Alaska - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 2 3 Northeast Pacific California Current Gulf of Alaska CalCOFI Observations Line P Observations Physical-Biological Variability PDO PDO & & explains PDO mode ! ! ° C Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) $ $ $# EOF1 ! ! ! SSH CalCOFI SSTa Line P SSTa & ! & %# Line P $'& Line P Salinity NPGO Salinity NPGO !"#$ !"%$ !""$ &$$$ $'! &# psu $ CalCOFI ! $'! '# ! $'& NPGO Line P NO 3 ! !"# ! !$# ! !%# ! !&# ! !'# ! !(# ' NO 3 NPGO !"#$ !"%$ !""$ &$$$ & NPGO Mode explains & ! mol m -3 North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) $ $ $# EOF2 ! & SSH Line P & !'( %# ! ' NPGO ! Chl-a 1970 1980 1990 2000 year std $'( &# $ Di Lorenzo et al., GRL 2008. CalCOFI ! $'( '# ! ! ! !"# ! !$# ! !%# ! !&# ! !'# ! !(# 1970 1980 1990 2000 !"#$ !"%$ !""$ &$$$

Coherent variations of salinity in the Northeast Pacific (spatial maps is from ROMS model hindcast) $# 35.5 (C) PC1 SSSa (A) & %# latitude $ Line P ! mol m -3 ! & &# NPGO Index CalCOFI Line P SSSa !"#$ !"%$ !""$ &$$$ & Mean SSSa '# 32 $ $# (B) +5.5 ! & CalCOFI SSSa %# ! mol m -3 $'& latitude Line P !"#$ !"%$ !""$ &$$$ $'! &# $ CalCOFI ! $'! EOF1 SSSa '# ! $'& -5.5 ! !"# ! !$# ! !%# ! !&# ! !'# ! !(# 1970 1980 1990 2000 longitude year Di Lorenzo et al., in prep.

Coherent variations of nutrients in the Northeast Pacific (spatial maps is from ROMS model hindcast) $# 30 (C) PC1 NO 3 (A) & %# latitude $ ! mol m -3 Line P ! & &# NPGO Index Line P NO 3 !"#$ !"%$ !""$ &$$$ & Mean NO 3 CalCOFI '# 1.7 $ $# (B) +5.5 ! & CalCOFI NO 3 %# ' ! mol m -3 latitude Line P !"#$ !"%$ !""$ &$$$ & &# $ CalCOFI ! & EOF1 NO 3 '# -5.5 ! ' 1970 1980 1990 2000 ! !"# ! !$# ! !%# ! !&# ! !'# ! !(# longitude year Di Lorenzo et al., in prep.

The atmospheric forcing of the PDO and NPGO drive di � erent responses in coastal upwelling 1 2 Sea Level Pressure and Wind Vector Anomalies Upwelling depth index during PDO positive phase positive indicates shallow upwelling cell 60 & 60 !"# ! std $ 40 40 ! ! PDO Index Upwelling depth index ! & 20 20 !"#$ !"%$ !""$ &$$$ PDO Forcing pattern Chhak and Di Lorenzo, 2007 0 0 � 200 � 150 � 100 3 4 Sea Level Pressure and Wind Vector Anomaly Upwelling depth index G4-H,68./ during NPGO positive phase negative indicates shallow upwelling cell 60 !$# 60 & std 40 40 $ NPGO Index ! & Upwelling depth index 20 20 !"#$ !"%$ !""$ &$$$ NPGO Forcing pattern Chhak and Di Lorenzo, in prep. 0 0 -200 -150 -100

An inverse approach to track changes in upwelling during the negative and positive phase of PDO 2 METHOD: 1 QUESTION: inject passive tracer at the where do the upwelled water at upwelling location and the coast come from during track it backwards in time different phases of PDO? with ROMS-Adjoint -PDO ensemble mean +PDO ensemble mean 50N 50N 45N 45N adjoint passive tracer 40N 40N map at 50m 35N 35N 30N 30N � 140W � 130W � 120W � 140W � 130W � 120W negative PDO positive PDO we find more water coming we find more water coming from the south from the north and offshore Chhak and Di Lorenzo, 2007

Model Hindcast of the CalCOFI Observations ROMS physical- 1 & CalCOFI SSTa biological modeling Model SSTa framework ! ° C $ ! ! 2 ROMS NPZD R=0.42 ! & “simplistic” model Model SSSa $'& CalCOFI SSSa $'! zooplankton net growth psu $ egestion ! $'! total grazing mortality/ R=0.6 higher o predation ! $'& t h e r m o r t a l i t y ' phytoplankton !"#$ !"%$ !""$ &$$$ CalCOFI NO 3 ! mol m -3 & detritus excretion uptake/ growth $ sinking remineralization R=0.55 ! & nutrients (nitrate + ammonium) !'( ! ' CalCOFI Chl-a ! sketch courtesy of Neil Banas $'( std $ Di Lorenzo et al., 2008, GRL ! $'( R=0.5 ! ! !"#$ !"%$ !""$ &$$$

North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) NPGO Mode pattern in Satellite SSHa defined: as 2nd EOF of SSHa &# in the Northeast Pacific '# $# SSHa $# EOF2 # %# ! $# ! '# &# Corr(SSHa, NPGO) ! &# ! #&' ! #&( ! #&$ # #&$ #&( #&' '# NPGO pattern in Global SSTa ! !"# ! !$# ! !%# ! !&# ! !'# ! !(# &# '# PC2 Pacific SSTa NPGO Index ) $# ( # ! ! $# $ ! '# ! ! R=0.47 ! ( ! &# Corr(SSTa, NPGO) ! !"# ! !## ! $"# ! $## ! %"# ! %## ! "# ! ) !"#$ !"%$ !"&$ !"'$ !""$ ($$$

1 2 Large-scale climate ECOSYSTEM footprint mode in the PHYSICS of climate mode NPGO pattern in Global SSTa NPGO pattern in SeaWiFS CHL-a &# '# $# # ! $# ! '# ! &# Corr(SSTa, NPGO) Corr(CHL-a, NPGO) ! !"# ! !## ! $"# ! $## ! %"# ! %## ! "# ! #&' ! #&( ! #&$ # #&$ #&( #&' ! '"( ! '"& ! '"$ ' '"$ '"& '"( KOE Zonal Mode 3 Phase lag response in NPGO Index the Western Boundary & Changes in strength of the Kuroshio lag changes in the Eastern Boundary $ Plotted is KOE Zonal Mode (red) lagged by 3 years ! & Di Lorenzo et al., in prep. (Taguchi et al. 2007) !"#$ !"%$ !""$ &$$$ year

CENTRAL/WESTERN 1 North Pacific North Pacific Oscillation Index ( NPO ) Sea Level Pressure mode ' Atmosphere forces the ocean SSHa & $ NPO North Pacific Gyre Oscillation Index ( NPGO ) ! & Central/Eastern North Pacific SSHa mode 2 ! ' & !"#$ !"%$ !""$ &$$$ NPGO NPGO rec $ Strength of Kuroshio Index ( KOE Index) Taghucci et al. (2007) 3 ! & Western North Pacific SSHa mode !"#$ !"%$ !""$ &$$$ NPGO & NPGO rec ( t + 1) = � NPGO rec ( t ) + � NPO ( t ) � dt KOE 3-4 years later $ ocean westward propagation ! & of SSHa affect western boundary !"#$ !"%$ !""$ &$$$ KOE index lagged by 3 years Di Lorenzo and Schneider, in prep. WESTERN North Pacific

Stochastic Forcing NPO EXTRA-TROPICS North Pacific Oscillation (Walker and Bliss, 1932) atmosphere NPGO a H S S s e v North Pacific Gyre Oscillation a W y b s s o R (Di Lorenzo, Schneider et al. 2007) KOE Zonal Mode ocean Strength of KOE (Taguchi et al. 2007) ocean SSTa footprinting (Vimont et al. 2003) Precursor of NPO in tropical western Pacific SLPa (Schneider and Di Lorenzo, in prep.) ? ENSO ocean - atmosphere TROPICS Di Lorenzo and Schneider, in prep.