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Global mean water fluxes (1,000 km3/yr) at the start of the 21st century, based on satellite and ground-based observations and data integrating models. A comprehensive assessment of the global water cycle is being carried out by a multi-institutional team of investigators supported by NASA’s Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) program.

Matthew.Rodell@nasa.gov

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SLIDE 5

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EO EL PO PL QA QL SO SL

SLIDE 6

What do we see?

Syed et al., 2010

199407 199507 199607 199707 199807 199907 200007 200107 200207 200307 200407 200507 200607 2.9 3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8x 104

Evaporation (km /month) 3

HOAP S SSM/I OAFlux

Time (YearMonth)

Figure S5

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199507 199607 199707 199807 199907 200007 200107 200207 200307 200407 200507 200607 2000 −5 199507 199607 199707 199807 199907 200007 200107 200207 200307 200407 200507 200607 3.34 3.36 3.38 3.4 3.42 3.44 3.46 3.48

Evaporation (10 km³/month) 4

199412-200611: 768 km3/yr2; p < 0.001 199412-199906: 2256 km3/yr2; p < 0.001 199907-200611: 396 km3/yr2; p < 0.001 (b)

3.18

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SLIDE 7

What do we see?

Syed et al., 2010

199407 199507 199607 199707 199807 199907 200007 200107 200207 200307 200407 200507 200607 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5x 104

Time (YearMonth) Precipitation (km /month) 3

GPCP CMAP Figure S4

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199507 199607 199707 199807 199907 200007 200107 200207 200307 200407 200507 200607 199507 199607 199707 199807 199907 200007 200107 200207 200307 200407 200507 200607 3.04 3.06 3.08 3.1 3.12 3.14 3.16 3.18

Time (YearMonth)

199412-200611: 240 km3/yr2; p < 0.01 199412-199906: -720 km3/yr2; p < 0.01 199907-200611: 1260 km3/yr2; p < 0.001

(c)

Precipitation (10 km³/month) 4

Figure 2

SLIDE 8

199407 199507 199607 199707 199807 199907 200007 200107 200207 200307 200407 200507 200607 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Time (YearMonth) Discharge (km3 /month) Discharge

‘94‘95‘96‘97‘98‘99‘00‘01‘02‘03‘04‘05‘06 2.8 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 x 104 Discharge (km3/yr) Year

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Summary

A largely storage driven assessment of water cycle change suggests

that water cycle acceleration is the norm.

NASA NEWS project is providing new metrics to quantify and

understand these changes

These and other metrics and datasets will be carefully monitored in

the coming years as part of a comprehensive and ongoing assessment of the state of the water cycle

The implications for increasing energetics, i.e. for changes in

extremes, must be very carefully evaluated. It is not clear that our models can yet reproduce some the the metrics we discussed today, and therefore accurately predict future changes

Data acquisition and model development should focus on better

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Matthew.Rodell@nasa.gov

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Summary

that water cycle acceleration is the norm.

understand these changes

the coming years as part of a comprehensive and ongoing assessment of the state of the water cycle

extremes, must be very carefully evaluated. It is not clear that our models can yet reproduce some the the metrics we discussed today, and therefore accurately predict future changes

characterizaton and prediction of these changes. Dissemination of key advances and results should target informed decision making.

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