Y Warning reports emitted by L N the National Meteorological O - PDF document

Y Warning reports emitted by L N the National Meteorological O Service (IMN) W Costa Rica T I R O F Werner Stolz National Meteorological Service Costa Rica 2007

Y L N O W Risks Statistics T Latin and Central America I R O F

Latin America: risks percentages (1970-1999) Earthquakes 18% Y Slidings L Tropical and droughts N Cyclones 16% O 22% W Fires, 3% T I Others, 3% R O Floods F 38%

Map of Risk for Central America (1960-2001) Y L Hurricanes N O W T I tsunamis droughts R O floods F Earthquakes

Y L N National Meteorological Service O W T Technical systems, products and I R warning reports O F

Meteorological Service Warning Forecast Scheme Geostationary Satellite (GOES-12) Satellite images each 30 minutes Meteorological Professional Expertise Y L Weather Numerical Models N O Work Station Model (WS-Eta) W PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model MM5 T Weather Research & Forecasting Model I (WRF) R O F Central America Flash Flood Guidance (CAFFG) Warning report

344 mm Y L N O W WS-Eta, Weather Numerical Model T I R O F

344 mm WS-Eta Weather Numerical Model Forecast rain Y L N O W T I R O F Forecast rain: 124 mm Real amount of rain: 300 mm

344 mm WS-Eta, Weather Numerical Model Forecast rain Y L N O W T I R O F Forecast rain: 123 mm Real amount of rain: 119 mm

344 mm WS-Eta, Weather Numerical Model Forecast rain Y L N O W T I R O F Forecast rain: 77 mm Real amount of rain: 112 mm

344 mm Y L N O W The Hydroestimator T I R O F

The Hydroestimator (satellite rain estimation) Heavy rains Y L N O W COSTA RICA T I R O F Amounts of rain estimated by the hydroestimator

344 mm Y L N O W Central America Flash Flood Guidance T I R O F

Central America Flash Flood Guidance (CAFFG) Soil Moisture Rain Y L Threshold value Soil use Soil use N Runoff O W Flash Flood Guidance T I (FFG) R O F Costa Rica Flash Flood Map (CRFFM) Warning report

Central America Flash Flood Guidance (study cases) Basin classification map by region Y Basin area: 20 km 2 L N O W T I R COSTA RICA O F

Central America Flash Flood Guidance (flood map) Y Map of risk of flood: L Green: no flood probility N Yellow: flood probability O Red: Imminent flood W T I R O F

Central America Flash Flood Guidance (study cases) Y L N O W T I In fact, we R have floods O at this region. F Map of flood risk: Colors: Green: no flood probility Yellow: flood probability Red: Imminent flood

Y L N O W T I R O F Heavy rains and floods in the majority of the red regions.

Y L N O W flood T I flood R O F Heavy rains and floods due to Hurricane Wilma (2005). Caribbean Sea

Study case, Panama (Central Evaluación del riesgo de inundación correspondiente al 17-09-04 a las 18 Z válido a las 00 Z del 18-09-04 America), September 2004 Y L N Clasificación de cuencas No hay dato O Inundación o inundación inminente Posible inundación No hay riesgo de inundación W T I R O F N W E 100 0 100 200 Kilometers S

Evaluación del riesgo de inundación Study case, El Salvador (Central para el 29-09-04 válido a la 01 Z America), September 2004 Rangos Kosta Y L N O W T I R No datos O Clasificación de cuencas Inundación o inundación inminente Posible inundación No existe riesgo de inundación F N W E 70 0 70 140 Kilometers S

344 mm Y L N O W T I R O F Thank you