Workforce modelling simulation driven collaboration UK System - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Workforce modelling – simulation driven collaboration

UK System Dynamics Chapter April 2014

The Whole Systems Partnership 1

Overview

An introduction to the Workforce Modelling Collaborative (PL); Group task – making commissioning decisions using the modelling tool (PL/DL); Collaboration – the technical challenge and practical solution (ST); Group task 2 – using the collaborative portal (DL/PL); Feedback and discussion.

The Whole Systems Partnership 2

The Health Education England Mandate

“The Secretary of State for Health has a statutory duty to ensure that an effective education and training system is in place for the NHS and public health system. Health Education England has been established to support that

• duty. Health Education England, with the networks of

employers working through Local Education and Training Boards, will ensure a nationally coherent system is in place to develop the right people with the right skills and the right values.”

The Whole Systems Partnership 3

Local Education & Training Boards

Thirteen regional bodies – arms length organisations of Health Education England:

The Whole Systems Partnership 4

The workforce modelling collaborative (WMC)

Objective: to develop and share systems models that support LETBs in their role to commission the training

• f medical, nursing and other professional training.

Means:

n Clinical engagement including model conceptualisation,

confirm and challenge;

n The provision of training and coaching support to senior

analysts and strategic decision makers;

n The sharing of models across the collaborative for data

assurance and benchmarking;

n To contribute to national discussion about the number and

distribution of training provision.

The Whole Systems Partnership 5

Members

The Whole Systems Partnership 6 East Midlands (October 2012) Yorkshire & Humber (October 2012) Kent, Surrey & Sussex (April 2013) NCE London (October 2013) North West (April 2013) East of England (April 2013) Wessex (October 2013) Thames Valley (October 2013) South West (April 2014) NW London (April 2014) South London (April 2014)

Model development

The Whole Systems Partnership 7 1 Preliminary intelligence gathering:

• Training pathway;
• Key challenges;
• Review of literature (cfwi/

colleges etc)

Each of the models go through a development cycle of roughly 3-4 months:

2 Meeting with a lead clinician:

• Demonstrate approach;
• Confirm & challenge early

findings;

• Identify key distinctives.

Production of an initial set of presentation material summarising initial findings Develop prototype of model and gather initial data to populate this 3 Meeting with a lead clinician:

• Demonstrate model;
• Validate assumptions;
• Identify learning.

Refine model and publish initial report for first LETB

Group task 1

An introduction to the Radiology model

The Whole Systems Partnership 8

Overview of Radiology training pathway

The Whole Systems Partnership 9

ST 1-3

(3yrs)

ST 4-5

(2yrs) Whilst theoretically there are routes out

• f training this is

very rare in the case

• f radiology

CCT for Clinical Radiology CCT for Interventional Radiology Two main routes: either from F1/2

• r after ST1/2 in

General Medicine

• r Surgery

ST 4-6

(3yrs) Independent Sector NHS Consultant workforce

Key messages from initial clinical input

There is a feminisation of the workforce to take into account; There are minimal or no career breaks and only a small number of breaks for pregnancy; There are few inter-deanery transfers; Clinical Radiologist workforce should be planned in line with Radiographers – some skills development (1yr training) can enhance radiographer roles; A private sector estimated at c.15-20% of total capacity eases peaks and troughs in demand.

The Whole Systems Partnership 10

Key messages from initial clinical input – demand side challenges

Increasing need for OOH/24-7 working; Increase in GP open access especially for MRI; Clinical Radiology is accreting an increasing range of procedures in most specialities but particularly in vascular surgery, oncology (tumour ablation and targeted therapy), gastroenterology (biliary intervention), obstetrics (stopping bleeding) and general and specialist surgery (e.g. Drainage and many other procedures); CT/MR in particular are critical in achieving reduced hospital length of stay and preventing admission or

• utpatient referral (currently growing at c.20% a year).

The Whole Systems Partnership 11

Commissioning decisions

March 2013 The Whole Systems Partnership 12 This needs to be switched on for the decisions about 2014 to 2016 to take effect. Your decision about training numbers are input here. You might decide to fill any gaps by importing Radiologists as they complete training elsewhere You can change the max or min that you think is reasonable

Other assumptions

March 2013 The Whole Systems Partnership 13 Is the retirement age increasing? Is the feminisation

• f the workforce

having an impact

• n participation

rates of time to completion of training?

The interface (nested outputs)

March 2013 The Whole Systems Partnership 14

ST1 starts CCTs produced Oversupply

Consultants in post v’s need for consultants

Number in training Total FTE workforce

Your group task………..

You have been assigned to a fictitious location where the systems model for deciding on recruitment levels for trainee Radiologists has been calibrated; Familiarise yourself with your model and consider the assumptions you wish to make to inform your decision (using the worksheet provided); Run some scenarios until you are happy with your decision; Save this version for benchmarking.

The Whole Systems Partnership 15

Collaboration

Developing a collaborative web environment

The Whole Systems Partnership 16

We all (try to) collaborate

The modeller collaborates with the stakeholder

n Meetings are scheduled, visits take place, models are built,

results are shared

Stakeholders collaborate with other stakeholders

n Meetings are scheduled, visits take place, results are shared

Or do they?

n Meetings get cancelled/delayed/rearranged (x people

involved!)

n Is that the correct version of the model? n Do I have the right (version) of the software? n Do I have the right (version) of the data?

The Whole Systems Partnership 17

Can technology help?

Many of us collaborate with each other socially via technology Very often what we take for granted is difficult to do in a M&S project Cloud-based simulation questionnaire is capturing a demand profile Isee Systems made this a little easier with the ability to share models online with NetSim However this had limitations that we addressed in the joint WSP/Brunel KTP

The Whole Systems Partnership 18

Collaborative environment

The Whole Systems Partnership 19

Web-­‑based ¡Environment Data ¡Input Simulator Output ¡Analysis/ Benchmarking Data Model Results

May 2011 The Whole Systems Partnership 20

May 2011 The Whole Systems Partnership 21

Group task 2

Using the Collaborative environment/outputs to improve decision making

The Whole Systems Partnership 22

Your group task………..

Review your decision in terms of the outcomes compared to other areas; Identify questions you might ask of other areas to understand how they have arrived at their saved scenario; Consult with others………………. Would you now change the decision you made in the light of this discussion?

The Whole Systems Partnership 23

Discussion

The Whole Systems Partnership 24