SLIDE 1
What could possibly go right?
AGRICULTURE IS DOOMED. OR MAYBE NOT.
SD Corn Growers 1/20/18 johnwphipps@gmail.com
I foresee many predictions…
‘Tis the season Demand-driven Impossible to ignore Change our imagination
What could possibly go right? AGRICULTURE IS DOOMED. OR MAYBE NOT. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
What could possibly go right? AGRICULTURE IS DOOMED. OR MAYBE NOT. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
What could possibly go right? AGRICULTURE IS DOOMED. OR MAYBE NOT. SD Corn Growers 1/20/18 johnwphipps@gmail.com I foresee many predictions Tis the season Demand-driven Impossible to ignore Change our imagination Impactful
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SLIDE 3
Impactful predictions
Source: Robots: World of the Future (1979)
SLIDE 4
Trends
Positive Trends
- Productivity
- Trade
- Demand
- Population growth*
- Ethanol*
- Protein demand*
- Rural lifestyles
Negative trends
- Productivity
- Trade uncertainty
- Demand disrupters
- Consumer whims
- EV’s
- Artificial meat
- Rural economies
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Rural economy
SLIDE 6
Ag prediction constraints
qPopulation qGeography qDemography qLand ownership patterns qCulture
Fast Effective Cheap
SLIDE 7
Prediction pointers
Two Requirements
- Testable
- Time-limited
Surrogacy
- Embrace the average
- WWMGLMD
Mine your predictions
- Biases
- Repetition
What would change my mind?
1/23/18
SLIDE 8
Predictions to bet your Bitcoin on
- 1. Broadband won’t save us
- 2. Non-farm employment will
- Eds, meds & feds
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Warning: Ostrich!
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Predictions to bet your Bitcoin on
- 1. Broadband won’t save us
- 2. Non-farm employment will
- Eds, meds & feds
- 3. Ag deregulation will stall
- 4. Fortune favors [a few of the] the bold
- 5. Not all of us will go broke
- 6. We’re all in this alone
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Resources: Books
The Great Stagnation and Average Is Over by Tyler Cowen The Wealth of Humans by Ryan Avent The Righteous Mind by Jonathan Haidt Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman Scarcity by Mullainathan and Shafir Future Babble by Dan Gardner The Truth About Dishonesty by Dan Ariely The Race Against the Machine by Brynjolfsson and MacAfee Superforecasting by Tetlock and Gardner
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SLIDE 12
Resources: Online
Marginal Revolution Incidental Economist Quartz Vox Farmpolicy Farmdocsdaily The Upshot @jwphipps Hit & Run Rural Blog Pacific Standard SciTech Daily Bloomberg Project Syndicate Slate
1/23/18
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