What could possibly go right? AGRICULTURE IS DOOMED. OR MAYBE NOT. SD Corn Growers 1/20/18 johnwphipps@gmail.com
I foresee many predictions… ‘Tis the season Demand-driven Impossible to ignore Change our imagination
Impactful predictions Source: Robots: World of the Future ( 1979)
Trends Positive Trends Negative trends ◦ Productivity ◦ Productivity ◦ Trade ◦ Trade uncertainty ◦ Demand ◦ Demand disrupters ◦ Population growth* ◦ Consumer whims ◦ Ethanol* ◦ EV’s ◦ Protein demand* ◦ Artificial meat ◦ Rural lifestyles ◦ Rural economies
Rural economy
Ag prediction constraints q Population Cheap q Geography q Demography Fast q Land ownership patterns q Culture Effective
Prediction pointers Two Requirements ◦ Testable ◦ Time-limited Surrogacy ◦ Embrace the average ◦ WWMGLMD Mine your predictions ◦ Biases ◦ Repetition What would change my mind? 1/23/18
Predictions to bet your Bitcoin on 1. Broadband won’t save us 2. Non-farm employment will • Eds, meds & feds
Warning: Ostrich!
Predictions to bet your Bitcoin on 1. Broadband won’t save us 2. Non-farm employment will • Eds, meds & feds 3. Ag deregulation will stall 4. Fortune favors [a few of the] the bold 5. Not all of us will go broke 6. We’re all in this alone
Resources: Books The Great Stagnation and Average Is Over by Tyler Cowen The Wealth of Humans by Ryan Avent The Righteous Mind by Jonathan Haidt Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman Scarcity by Mullainathan and Shafir Future Babble by Dan Gardner The Truth About Dishonesty by Dan Ariely The Race Against the Machine by Brynjolfsson and MacAfee Superforecasting by Tetlock and Gardner 11
Resources: Online Marginal Revolution Hit & Run Incidental Economist Rural Blog Quartz Pacific Standard Vox SciTech Daily Farmpolicy Bloomberg Farmdocsdaily Project Syndicate The Upshot Slate @jwphipps 12 1/23/18
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