Understanding the Australian electorate Workshop on elections and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Understanding the Australian electorate Workshop on elections and advocacy, Sydney Policy Lab Dr Shaun Ratcliff The United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney Download the slides at shaunratcliff.com/policy-lab-presentation/ 18 October
Workshop on elections and advocacy, Sydney Policy Lab Dr Shaun Ratcliff The United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney
Download the slides at shaunratcliff.com/policy-lab-presentation/
18 October 2019
Mistaken ideas of economic interests (what is a ‘battler’?), ecological fallacies and problematic inferences leads to a few issues:
◮ Who actually voted for the Coalition, Labor?
Mistaken ideas of economic interests (what is a ‘battler’?), ecological fallacies and problematic inferences leads to a few issues:
◮ Who actually voted for the Coalition, Labor? ◮ Did the voters who might benefit from Labors’ policies vote for
the Coalition?
Mistaken ideas of economic interests (what is a ‘battler’?), ecological fallacies and problematic inferences leads to a few issues:
◮ Who actually voted for the Coalition, Labor? ◮ Did the voters who might benefit from Labors’ policies vote for
the Coalition?
◮ What lessons should we (and the parties) take from the
election?
VIC WA TAS ACT QLD SA NSW
$50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 −4% −2% 0% 2% 4% −4% −2% 0% 2% 4% −4% −2% 0% 2% 4%
Median household income Labor two−party swing
Labor two−party swing by income and state
Two−party is Labor−Coalition two−party estimate for all electorates, including those that were not Labor vs Coalition.
SA WA VIC NSW ACT QLD TAS
$50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 −4% −2% 0% 2% 4% −4% −2% 0% 2% 4% −4% −2% 0% 2% 4%
Median household income Labor first preference swing
Labor first preference swing by income and state
Coalition Labor
No assets Owns home Shares Business or trust Other real estate No assets Owns home Shares Business or trust Other real estate 30% 40% 50%
Assets owned Primary vote share
Primary vote by asset ownership
Australian Cooperative Election Survey
Coalition Labor
< $52k $52−$78k $78−$156k > $156k < $52k $52−$78k $78−$156k > $156k 30% 40%
Household income Primary vote share
Primary vote by household income
Australian Cooperative Election Survey
Coalition Labor
Disability Youth & student Family Other Carer None Age Disability Youth & student Family Other Carer None Age 30% 40%
Payments received Primary vote share
Primary vote by government payments
Australian Cooperative Election Survey
Agree Neutral Disagree
No assets Owns home Shares Business or trust Other real estate No assets Owns home Shares Business or trust Other real estate No assets Owns home Shares Business or trust Other real estate 20% 40% 60%
Assets owned Primary vote share
Attitudes towards negative gearing by asset ownership
Australian Cooperative Election Survey
Agree Neutral Disagree
< $52k $52−$78k $78−$156k > $156k < $52k $52−$78k $78−$156k > $156k < $52k $52−$78k $78−$156k > $156k 20% 35% 50%
Household income Proportion with each response
Attitudes towards negative gearing by household income
Australian Cooperative Election Survey
Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree
$50 $150 $250 $50 $150 $250 $50 $150 $250 10% 30% 50%
Annual household income ($,000s) Proportion providing each response
Owns home (including with mortgage) Other voters
Support for negative gearing by home ownership and income
Australian Cooperative Election Survey
< $52,000 $52,000 to $77,999 $78,000 to $155,999 > $156,000 Coalition Greens Other Coalition Greens Other Coalition Greens Other Coalition Greens Other 0% 10% 20%
Vote in 2019 Rate of defection
Who left Labor?
Australian Cooperative Election Survey
< $52,000 $52,000 to $77,999 $78,000 to $155,999 > $156,000 Coalition Other Greens Coalition Other Greens Coalition Other Greens Coalition Other Greens 10% 20%
Vote in 2016 Rate of arrivals
Who came to Labor?
Australian Cooperative Election Survey
< $52,000 $52,000 to $77,999 $78,000 to $155,999 > $156,000 Labor Greens Other Labor Greens Other Labor Greens Other Labor Greens Other 4% 10% 16%
Vote in 2019 Rate of defection
Who left the Coalition?
Australian Cooperative Election Survey
< $52,000 $52,000 to $77,999 $78,000 to $155,999 > $156,000 Other Labor Greens Other Labor Greens Other Labor Greens Other Labor Greens 0% 10% 20%
Vote in 2016 Rate of arrivals
Who came to the Coalition?
Australian Cooperative Election Survey
Agree Neutral Disagree Coalition Greens Other Coalition Greens Other Coalition Greens Other 6% 10%
Vote in 2019 Rate of defection
Who left Labor? Support for negative gearing use by landlords
Australian Cooperative Election Survey
Agree Neutral Disagree Labor Greens Other Labor Greens Other Labor Greens Other 0% 10% 20%
Vote in 2019 Rate of defection
Who left the Coalition? Support for negative gearing use by landlords
Australian Cooperative Election Survey
◮ Loss aversion? People tend to prefer avoiding losses to
acquiring equivalent gains.
◮ Loss aversion? People tend to prefer avoiding losses to
acquiring equivalent gains.
◮ Complexity of policy. The only people that understood it were
those that benefitted from the status quo.
◮ Loss aversion? People tend to prefer avoiding losses to
acquiring equivalent gains.
◮ Complexity of policy. The only people that understood it were
those that benefitted from the status quo.
◮ Politics is about emotion and values, not technical policy.