TREE SELECTION IN A Tying it all together CHANGING CLIMATE Midwest - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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TREE SELECTION IN A Tying it all together CHANGING CLIMATE Midwest - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 29, 2023 126 likes •318 views

1/16/2014 Program Outline Midwest climate: Trends and Predictions Urban trees: The canary in the coalmine? Bert Cregg, Ph.D. Potential impacts of climate change on urban Michigan State University trees Department of Horticulture

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TREE SELECTION IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

Bert Cregg, Ph.D. Michigan State University Department of Horticulture Department of Forestry

Program Outline

  • Midwest climate: Trends and Predictions
  • Urban trees: The canary in the coalmine?
  • Potential impacts of climate change on urban

trees

  • Tree selection strategies for dealing with

climate change

  • Tying it all together

Midwest climate: Trends and Predictions Industrial revolution

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  • Since the mid-1800’s CO2 concentration has

increased from 280 ppm to ~395 ppm

  • Predicted to reach 700 ppm by 2050
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Recent changes in Minnesota Climate

  • warm winters, during which higher

temperatures have been both persistent and substantial;

  • higher minimum temperatures;
  • increased episodes of high summer dew

points;

  • greater annual precipitation, most profoundly

in seasonal snowfall and thunderstorm rainfall.

Seeley, Mark W. Minnesota Weather Almanac

  • 30
  • 25
  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Annual minimum Temp MSP

Zone 4b

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Minimum temperatures are warming faster than average temperatures

Krakauer, 2012

Urban trees: The canary in the coalmine?

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Atmospheric water

Vapor pressure deficit:

at 30% RH VPD doubles for each 20oF (11oC) increase in temperature

2 4 6 8 10 12 55/13 75/24 95/35 115/46 temperature (F/C) vapor pressure (kPa) VP deficit Actual VP

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temperature (oC)

30 40 50 12am 4am 8am 12pm 4pm 8pm 12am 2 4 6 8 10 12

vapor pressure deficit (kPa)

downtown East campus Lincoln WSO Cregg and Dix 2001. J. Arbor. 27:8-17

108oF 117oF 126oF

Cregg and Dix 2001. J. Arbor. 27:8-17

  • Respiration

increases exponentially with temperature

Source: Bolstad et al. 1999. Tree Phys. 19:871-878.

The great March warm-up of 2012

2012 Daily high temperatures vs. 25-year average high

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1-Jan 15-Jan 29-Jan 12-Feb 26-Feb 11-Mar 25-Mar 8-Apr 22-Apr

2012 25 yr avg

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  • March 19, 2012
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What goes up…

April 2012 Daily low temperatures

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr

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Was 2012 an aberration or sign of things to come?

Impacts of climate change on phenology

Source: Badeck et al. 2004. New Phyologist. 162:295-309 Source: Gunderson et al. 2012 Global Change Biology 18:2008-2025.

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Source: Gunderson et al. 2012 Global Change Biology 18:2008-2025.

Strategies for dealing with climate change

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Organisms have three principle means to respond to a change in their environment

  • Migration
  • Adaptation
  • Acclimation

Assisted colonization

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BC Forest Service Assisted Migration Adaptation Trial Provenance tests as surrogates for climate change

Schmidtling 1994: Tree Phys. 14:805-817

Moving seed sources northward

  • ften results in increased growth

Schmidtling 1994: Tree Phys. 14:805-817

Northern seed sources break bud early and may be subject to late frosts

Johnsen et al. 1996. Tree Phys. 16:375-380

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Physiological acclimation

MSU Shade Tree Acclimation Study MSU Shade Tree Acclimation Study

  • Species vary

in their ability to acclimate to increased growth temperature

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  • Out-planting this spring with Greening of

Detroit

Tying it all together

  • Midwest climate is getting warmer –

especially winter temperatures

  • Trees in urban and community forests are

already ‘living on the edge’

  • Changes in phenological patterns and

drought stress are likely to be first impacts

Tying it all together (cont.)

  • Moving species and seed sources northward
  • Diversity remains the most viable risk

management tool

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Selecting a diversified portfolio Abundance of major tree genera in six Midwest cities: 1980 vs. 2005

5 10 15 20 25 30 Acer Picea Thuja Fraxinus Quercus Pinus Prunus Juglans Cercis Morus

abundance (%)

1980 2005 Source: Wade 2010

Are we making progress?

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Pacific sunset maple Acer truncatum x A. platanoides ‘Warrenred’

Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page

Espresso Kentucky coffeetree Gymnocladus dioicus “Espresso-JFS”

Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page

State street maple Acer miyabei ‘Morton’

Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page

Scarlet oak Quercus coccinea

Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page

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1/16/2014 17 Crimson spire oak Quercus robur x Q. alba ‘Crimschmidt’

Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page

Bur oak Quercus macrocarpa

Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page

Red oak Quercus rubra

Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page

Ginkgo Ginkgo biloba

Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page

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Thanks for your attention!