TREE SELECTION IN A Tying it all together CHANGING CLIMATE Midwest - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1/16/2014 Program Outline  Midwest climate: Trends and Predictions  Urban trees: The canary in the coalmine? Bert Cregg, Ph.D.  Potential impacts of climate change on urban Michigan State University trees Department of Horticulture Department of Forestry  Tree selection strategies for dealing with climate change TREE SELECTION IN A  Tying it all together CHANGING CLIMATE Midwest climate: Industrial revolution Trends and Predictions 1

1/16/2014  Since the mid-1800’s CO2 concentration has increased from 280 ppm to ~395 ppm  Predicted to reach 700 ppm by 2050 2

1/16/2014 Recent changes in Minnesota Climate  warm winters, during which higher temperatures have been both persistent and substantial;  higher minimum temperatures;  increased episodes of high summer dew points;  greater annual precipitation, most profoundly in seasonal snowfall and thunderstorm rainfall. Seeley, Mark W. Minnesota Weather Almanac Annual minimum Temp MSP 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Zone 4b -25 -30 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3

1/16/2014 Minimum temperatures are warming faster than average temperatures Krakauer, 2012 Urban trees: The canary in the coalmine? 4

1/16/2014 Atmospheric water Vapor pressure deficit: at 30% RH VPD doubles for each 20 o F (11 o C) increase in temperature 12 vapor pressure (kPa) 10 8 VP deficit 6 Actual VP 4 2 0 55/13 75/24 95/35 115/46 temperature (F/C) 5

1/16/2014 126 o F 50 downtown temperature ( o C) East campus 117 o F Lincoln WSO 40 108 o F 30 0 vapor pressure deficit (kPa) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 12am 4am 8am 12pm 4pm 8pm 12am Cregg and Dix 2001. J. Arbor. 27:8-17 Cregg and Dix 2001. J. Arbor. 27:8-17 The great March warm-up of 2012  Respiration increases 2012 Daily high temperatures vs. 25-year average high exponentially with temperature 90 2012 80 25 yr avg 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1-Jan 15-Jan 29-Jan 12-Feb 26-Feb 11-Mar 25-Mar 8-Apr 22-Apr Source: Bolstad et al. 1999. Tree Phys. 19:871-878. 6

1/16/2014  March 19, 2012 7

1/16/2014 What goes up… April 2012 Daily low temperatures 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr 8

1/16/2014 Was 2012 an aberration or sign of things to come? Impacts of climate change on phenology Source: Badeck et al. 2004. New Phyologist. 162:295-309 Source: Gunderson et al. 2012 Global Change Biology 18:2008-2025. 9

1/16/2014 Source: Gunderson et al. 2012 Global Change Biology 18:2008-2025. Strategies for dealing with climate change 10

1/16/2014 Assisted colonization Organisms have three principle means to respond to a change in their environment  Migration  Adaptation  Acclimation 11

1/16/2014 Provenance tests as surrogates BC Forest Service Assisted for climate change Migration Adaptation Trial Schmidtling 1994: Tree Phys. 14:805-817 Northern seed sources break bud early and Moving seed sources northward may be subject to late frosts often results in increased growth Schmidtling 1994: Tree Phys. 14:805-817 Johnsen et al. 1996. Tree Phys. 16:375-380 12

1/16/2014 MSU Shade Tree Acclimation Study Physiological acclimation MSU Shade Tree Acclimation Study  Species vary in their ability to acclimate to increased growth temperature 13

1/16/2014  Out-planting this spring with Greening of Tying it all together Detroit  Midwest climate is getting warmer – especially winter temperatures  Trees in urban and community forests are already ‘living on the edge’  Changes in phenological patterns and drought stress are likely to be first impacts Tying it all together (cont.)  Moving species and seed sources northward  Diversity remains the most viable risk management tool 14

1/16/2014 Selecting a diversified portfolio Abundance of major tree genera in six Midwest cities: 1980 vs. 2005 30 25 1980 2005 abundance (%) 20 15 10 5 0 Acer Picea Thuja Fraxinus Quercus Pinus Prunus Juglans Cercis Morus Source: Wade 2010 Are we making progress? 15

1/16/2014 Espresso Kentucky coffeetree Pacific sunset maple Acer truncatum x A. platanoides Gymnocladus dioicus “Espresso-JFS” ‘Warrenred’ Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page Scarlet oak State street maple Quercus coccinea Acer miyabei ‘Morton’ Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page 16

1/16/2014 Crimson spire oak Bur oak Quercus robur x Q. alba ‘Crimschmidt’ Quercus macrocarpa Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page Red oak Ginkgo Quercus rubra Ginkgo biloba Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page Photo: ‘Great trees for Kansas City’ FaceBook Page 17

1/16/2014 Thanks for your attention! 18