TRANSPORTATION / HOUSING / INCOME / SUPPORT is the change this A - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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TRANSPORTATION / HOUSING / INCOME / SUPPORT is the change this A - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

LOW-INCOME STATS & MAPS: SURREY BC TRANSPORTATION / HOUSING / INCOME / SUPPORT is the change this A Forum on Collective Impact and Reducing Poverty in Surrey By the Surrey Poverty Reduction Coalition www.surreyprc.ca Monday February


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LOW-INCOME STATS & MAPS: SURREY BC

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TRANSPORTATION / HOUSING / INCOME / SUPPORT is the change

A Forum on Collective Impact and Reducing Poverty in Surrey

By the Surrey Poverty Reduction Coalition Monday February 16, 2015 8am-4pm Kwantlen University Conference Centre 1266672nd Ave, Surrey, BC

www.surreyprc.ca @MakeTHIS_Happen #THIS2015

A presentation by Jacopo Miro

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TODAY’S SESSION:

  • 1. 2011 NHS DATA
  • 2. FACTS & MAPS
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NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: A PRIMER

THE 2011 NHS: WHAT IS IT?

NHS = National Household Survey Random survey Voluntary (not mandatory)

WHAT DOES IT DO?

The NHS replaces the long-form census Gathers data on the social, demographic and economic profile of Canadians, and the dwellings in which they live

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NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: CONT’D

THE 2011 NHS: KEY POINTS

Prone to higher “non-response bias” Small geographic area & small population group = higher risk of error NHS data meets Stats Canada quality standards

108 Ave 104 Ave 132 St King George Blvd CHUCK BAILEY REC CENTRE GATEWAY STN BOLIVAR CREEK WHALLEY ATHLETIC PARK 112 Ave S K Y T R A I N

Low risk Medium risk High risk

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NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: CONT’D

BUT…

Changes to survey method affect how NHS data should used

MEANING…

Use great caution

“It is impossible to determine with certainty whether, and to what extent, differences in a variable are attributable to an actual change or to non- response bias (Stats Can, 2013).” “2011 NHS data on low-income is NOT comparable to census data of previous years (Stats Can, 2013).”

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NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: CONT’D

WHAT ONE CAN DO

Compare 2011 low-income data across population groups and across geographic areas

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NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: CONT’D

HOW TO TELL THE QUALITY OF NHS DATA?

GNR = Global Non-response Rate GNR = Statistical weighted measure used to ascertain the level of non-response to the NHS Percentage of households who did not respond to the survey

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NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: CONT’D

THE GNR: KEY POINTS

The higher the GNR the weaker the data (i.e. the higher the likelihood of bias) Know your GNR Threshold for publication = GNR is less than 50%

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NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: CONT’D

Measuring Poverty: LIM

LIM = Low-Income Measure Best available tool for low-income studies

LIM: KEY CHARACTERISTICS

“A household has low income if its income is less than half of the median income

  • f all households (Stats Canada 2013).”

LIM is adjusted for household size but not for geographic area LIM-AT (after tax) and LIM-BT (before tax)

Low-Income Measure Thresholds for Households of Canada, 2010*

Household Size After-tax Income ($) Before-tax Income ($) 1 person 19,460 22,160 2 persons 27,521 31,339 3 persons 33,706 38,382 4 persons 38,920 44,320 5 persons 43,514 49,551 6 persons 47,667 54,281 7 persons 51,486 58,630 *
  • Source: Statistics Canada National Household Survey Dictionary, 2011 Catalogue no. 99-000-X2011001
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FACTS & MAPS: SOME POINTERS

Initial stages of analysis Preliminary findings (a ‘sneak preview’) Publish the complete report on our website in the next four to six weeks

WHERE ARE WE AT?

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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW

GNR are considerable and varied

Non-Response rates (i.e. the GNR)

METRO VANCOUVER SURREY RICHMOND (Min) ANMORE & WEST VAN (Max) 24% 26% 21% 28% Municipal level Cambie & Broadway Cedar Hills (98 Av & 124 St) 14% 49% Neighbourhood/CT level Surrey Surrey Memorial Hospital Cedar Hills (98 Av & 124 St) 18% 49% Many neighbourhoods in the 30% range

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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW

High GNR are correlated with high incidence of low-income

What to make of this?

The lower the GNR the stronger the data Low-income data is likely equivalent to a ‘minimum/conservative count’ It is better to compare geographic areas with similar GNR

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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW

General findings

Highs are around 20% Surrey’s low-income population = 72,000 people Lows are around 10% Roughly 400,000 (17%) people classify as low-income in Metro Vancouver The incidence of low-income for Surrey is on par with the metropolitan average (16%)

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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW

General findings

“The updated Fact Sheets are a good starting point for thinking about poverty issues in

  • Surrey. They contextualize Surrey’s place in the region, and help us to compare various

socio-demographic groups in matters of housing, transportation, income and support.

The updated Fact Sheets don’t reveal anything radically different than previous years

TRANSPORTATION HOUSING INCOME SUPPORT TRANSPORTATION HOUSING INCOME SUPPORT Discounted transit passes The Ministry of Social Development and Social Innovation provides discount- ed transit passes for low-income seniors and people with disabilities. This pro- gram can make a real diference in helping seniors and people with disabilities who are in low income and struggling to make ends meet. 72% 22% ABORIGINAL PEOPLES How do people get to work? COMMUTING PATTERN FOR ABORIGINAL PEOPLES, RECENT IMMIGRANTS, AND PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES Commute by car
  • groups the majority use a car to go
to work 69% 26% RECENT IMMIGRANTS 82% 14% PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES 83% TOTAL POPULATION Commute by public transit 12% SURREY’S FREQUENT TRANSIT NETWORK In order to make THE FACTS ON POVERTY IN SURREY

transportation

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TRANSPORTATION / HOUSING / INCOME / SUPPORT

IS HOW WE END POVERTY IN SURREY

FREQUENT TRANSIT NETWORK: SURREY CITY CENTRE L E T ’ S D O

this

This fact sheet is part of a series of
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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW

Fine-grained data means more detailed findings

Neighbourhood Level Analysis

Adds analytical depth Reveals patterns that would otherwise go unnoticed Informs placed-based policies

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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW

How and to what extent are things getting better or worse?

Trends Overtime

Contextualize change Where? Understand structural and systemic forces at play

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LOW VERY HIGH HIGH MEDIUM LOW MEDIUM HIGH

LIM is but one indicator of low-income Various things affect these maps: Students House-rich cash-poor seniors Foreign assets Investment income Part-time vs full-time work

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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW

The distribution of low-income people varies not only across space, but also across age demographics

Age Profile

  • 63%

Less than 18 yrs 18 to 24 yrs 65 yrs and plus

28% 9%

  • 67%

Less than 18 yrs 18 to 24 yrs 65 yrs and plus

22% 11% 71%

Less than 18 yrs 18 to 24 yrs 65 yrs and plus

16% 13%

Surrey Metro Vancouver City of Vancouver

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ALL AGES:

Percentage of people of all ages in low income*

Less than 10% 10 - 14% 15 - 19% 20 - 24% 25% AND MORE Source: 2011 National Household Survey, 2011

CLOVERDALE NEWTON WHALLEY GUILDFORD FLEETWOOD SOUTH SURREY

96 Ave Hwy 10 Hwy 99 Hwy 15 King George Bldv Hwy 1A Hwy 1 CITY CENTRE *According to Statistics Canada’s Low-Income Measure After-Tax (LIM-AT) Produced by the Surrey Poverty Reduction Coalition www.surreyprc.ca Jan 2015

Affluent and poorer areas

Neighoburhood Level Analysis

Further localized and clustered in specific areas Low-income people are distributed unevenly in Surrey

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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW

Child Poverty in the Spotlight

30%

15%

SURREY VAN CY

CHILDREN AND YOUTH MAKE WHAT PERCENT OF THE LOW-INCOME POPULATION?

20%

METRO VAN 2,300

5,500

2,600

SURREY VANCOUVER CY BURNABY RICHMOND CHILDREN 5 YEARS AND YOUNGER LIVING IN POVERTY

6,200

20,000 children and youth live in poverty in Surrey… …more than in any other municipality in the region, including the City of Vancouver Also true for children 5 years and younger

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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW

Child Poverty in the Spotlight Cont’d 11

SURREY COQUITLAM

YOUTH & CHILD POVERTY: THE 20 POOREST NEIGHBOURHOODS* WHERE ARE THEY?

4

RICHMOND

2

VAN CY PORT COQUITLAM

1 2

*Neighbourhoods with the largest populations of low-income children and youth

The 4 neighbourhoods with the largest populations of low-income children (ages 5 and younger) are all in Surrey

800 children and youth live in

poverty around Holly Park, more than in any other neighbourhood in Metro Vancouver

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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW

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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW

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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW

Census tract area = 4km2

Number of low-income children = 290

Census tract area = 4km2

Number of low-income children = 600

Children 5 yrs and younger in low-income

Downtown Eastside, Strathcona and East Chinatown Holly Park & Guildford Mall Area

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WORK AHEAD

Explore spatial relationships with other indicators and variables (ethnicity & race, education, unemployment, commuting patterns, etc.)

Recent immigrants concentrations

Immigrants who arrived in Canada between 2006 and 2011 as a percentage of total residents

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WORK AHEAD

How are these neighbourhoods unique?

Recent immigrants concentrations

Immigrants who arrived in Canada between 2006 and 2011 as a percentage of total residents

32%

22%

10%

18%

11%

16%

9% 7% 7% 6% 7% 6% 7%

29% 25% 14% 13% 13%

HOLLY PARK KPU AREA GATEWAY STN SURREY VAN CY METRO VAN

Arrived in Canada between 2006 and 2011 Arrived in Canada between 2001 and 2005

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WORK AHEAD

Explore spatial relationships with other indicators and variables (ethnicity & race, education, unemployment, commuting patterns, etc.)

Mode of transportation – all residents – rounded to the nearest multiple of 5 COMMUTING TO WORK*

80%

15%

60%

30%

60%

35%

85%

15%

50%

30%

70%

20%

KPU AREA HOLLY PARK GATEWAY STN SURREY VAN CY METRO VAN

Car Public Transit

5% 10% 5%

15%

5% 5% 5%

Walk Bicycle

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WORK AHEAD

Publish a report on the maps Contextualize change over time Compare Surrey neighbourhoods with the neighbourhoods in other municipalities

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THE END

this

TRANSPORTATION / HOUSING / INCOME / SUPPORT is the change

A Forum on Collective Impact and Reducing Poverty in Surrey

By the Surrey Poverty Reduction Coalition Monday February 16, 2015 8am-4pm Kwantlen University Conference Centre 1266672nd Ave, Surrey, BC

www.surreyprc.ca @MakeTHIS_Happen #THIS2015

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EXTRA

Measuring Poverty: LICO

LICO = Low-Income Cut-Off Standard measure for studies on poverty for many years No longer available as a standard product by Stats Canada Stats Canada discourages the use of LICO

INCOME COMPOSITION:

Employment income, interest & investment income, retirement pensions, Old Age Security pension, Canada Pension Plan benefits, employment insurance benefits, child benefits