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LOW-INCOME STATS & MAPS: SURREY BC TRANSPORTATION / HOUSING / INCOME / SUPPORT is the change this A Forum on Collective Impact and Reducing Poverty in Surrey By the Surrey Poverty Reduction Coalition www.surreyprc.ca Monday February
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LOW-INCOME STATS & MAPS: SURREY BC
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TRANSPORTATION / HOUSING / INCOME / SUPPORT is the changeA Forum on Collective Impact and Reducing Poverty in Surrey
By the Surrey Poverty Reduction Coalition Monday February 16, 2015 8am-4pm Kwantlen University Conference Centre 1266672nd Ave, Surrey, BCwww.surreyprc.ca @MakeTHIS_Happen #THIS2015
A presentation by Jacopo Miro
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TODAY’S SESSION:
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NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: A PRIMER
THE 2011 NHS: WHAT IS IT?
NHS = National Household Survey Random survey Voluntary (not mandatory)
WHAT DOES IT DO?
The NHS replaces the long-form census Gathers data on the social, demographic and economic profile of Canadians, and the dwellings in which they live
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NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: CONT’D
THE 2011 NHS: KEY POINTS
Prone to higher “non-response bias” Small geographic area & small population group = higher risk of error NHS data meets Stats Canada quality standards
108 Ave 104 Ave 132 St King George Blvd CHUCK BAILEY REC CENTRE GATEWAY STN BOLIVAR CREEK WHALLEY ATHLETIC PARK 112 Ave S K Y T R A I NLow risk Medium risk High risk
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NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: CONT’D
BUT…
Changes to survey method affect how NHS data should used
MEANING…
Use great caution
“It is impossible to determine with certainty whether, and to what extent, differences in a variable are attributable to an actual change or to non- response bias (Stats Can, 2013).” “2011 NHS data on low-income is NOT comparable to census data of previous years (Stats Can, 2013).”
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NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: CONT’D
WHAT ONE CAN DO
Compare 2011 low-income data across population groups and across geographic areas
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NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: CONT’D
HOW TO TELL THE QUALITY OF NHS DATA?
GNR = Global Non-response Rate GNR = Statistical weighted measure used to ascertain the level of non-response to the NHS Percentage of households who did not respond to the survey
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NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: CONT’D
THE GNR: KEY POINTS
The higher the GNR the weaker the data (i.e. the higher the likelihood of bias) Know your GNR Threshold for publication = GNR is less than 50%
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NHS DATA & LOW INCOME RESEARCH: CONT’D
Measuring Poverty: LIM
LIM = Low-Income Measure Best available tool for low-income studies
LIM: KEY CHARACTERISTICS
“A household has low income if its income is less than half of the median income
LIM is adjusted for household size but not for geographic area LIM-AT (after tax) and LIM-BT (before tax)
Low-Income Measure Thresholds for Households of Canada, 2010*
Household Size After-tax Income ($) Before-tax Income ($) 1 person 19,460 22,160 2 persons 27,521 31,339 3 persons 33,706 38,382 4 persons 38,920 44,320 5 persons 43,514 49,551 6 persons 47,667 54,281 7 persons 51,486 58,630 * ¡ ¡
FACTS & MAPS: SOME POINTERS
Initial stages of analysis Preliminary findings (a ‘sneak preview’) Publish the complete report on our website in the next four to six weeks
WHERE ARE WE AT?
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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW
GNR are considerable and varied
Non-Response rates (i.e. the GNR)
METRO VANCOUVER SURREY RICHMOND (Min) ANMORE & WEST VAN (Max) 24% 26% 21% 28% Municipal level Cambie & Broadway Cedar Hills (98 Av & 124 St) 14% 49% Neighbourhood/CT level Surrey Surrey Memorial Hospital Cedar Hills (98 Av & 124 St) 18% 49% Many neighbourhoods in the 30% range
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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW
High GNR are correlated with high incidence of low-income
What to make of this?
The lower the GNR the stronger the data Low-income data is likely equivalent to a ‘minimum/conservative count’ It is better to compare geographic areas with similar GNR
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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW
General findings
Highs are around 20% Surrey’s low-income population = 72,000 people Lows are around 10% Roughly 400,000 (17%) people classify as low-income in Metro Vancouver The incidence of low-income for Surrey is on par with the metropolitan average (16%)
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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW
General findings
“The updated Fact Sheets are a good starting point for thinking about poverty issues in
socio-demographic groups in matters of housing, transportation, income and support.
The updated Fact Sheets don’t reveal anything radically different than previous years
TRANSPORTATION HOUSING INCOME SUPPORT TRANSPORTATION HOUSING INCOME SUPPORT Discounted transit passes The Ministry of Social Development and Social Innovation provides discount- ed transit passes for low-income seniors and people with disabilities. This pro- gram can make a real diference in helping seniors and people with disabilities who are in low income and struggling to make ends meet. 72% 22% ABORIGINAL PEOPLES How do people get to work? COMMUTING PATTERN FOR ABORIGINAL PEOPLES, RECENT IMMIGRANTS, AND PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES Commute by cartransportation
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TRANSPORTATION / HOUSING / INCOME / SUPPORTIS HOW WE END POVERTY IN SURREY
FREQUENT TRANSIT NETWORK: SURREY CITY CENTRE L E T ’ S D Othis
This fact sheet is part of a series of ¡ ¡
FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW
Fine-grained data means more detailed findings
Neighbourhood Level Analysis
Adds analytical depth Reveals patterns that would otherwise go unnoticed Informs placed-based policies
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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW
How and to what extent are things getting better or worse?
Trends Overtime
Contextualize change Where? Understand structural and systemic forces at play
LOW VERY HIGH HIGH MEDIUM LOW MEDIUM HIGH
LIM is but one indicator of low-income Various things affect these maps: Students House-rich cash-poor seniors Foreign assets Investment income Part-time vs full-time work
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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW
The distribution of low-income people varies not only across space, but also across age demographics
Age Profile
Less than 18 yrs 18 to 24 yrs 65 yrs and plus
28% 9%
Less than 18 yrs 18 to 24 yrs 65 yrs and plus
22% 11% 71%
Less than 18 yrs 18 to 24 yrs 65 yrs and plus
16% 13%
Surrey Metro Vancouver City of Vancouver
ALL AGES:
Percentage of people of all ages in low income*
Less than 10% 10 - 14% 15 - 19% 20 - 24% 25% AND MORE Source: 2011 National Household Survey, 2011CLOVERDALE NEWTON WHALLEY GUILDFORD FLEETWOOD SOUTH SURREY
96 Ave Hwy 10 Hwy 99 Hwy 15 King George Bldv Hwy 1A Hwy 1 CITY CENTRE *According to Statistics Canada’s Low-Income Measure After-Tax (LIM-AT) Produced by the Surrey Poverty Reduction Coalition www.surreyprc.ca Jan 2015Affluent and poorer areas
Neighoburhood Level Analysis
Further localized and clustered in specific areas Low-income people are distributed unevenly in Surrey
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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW
Child Poverty in the Spotlight
30%
15%
SURREY VAN CY
CHILDREN AND YOUTH MAKE WHAT PERCENT OF THE LOW-INCOME POPULATION?
20%
METRO VAN 2,300
5,500
2,600
SURREY VANCOUVER CY BURNABY RICHMOND CHILDREN 5 YEARS AND YOUNGER LIVING IN POVERTY
6,200
20,000 children and youth live in poverty in Surrey… …more than in any other municipality in the region, including the City of Vancouver Also true for children 5 years and younger
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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW
Child Poverty in the Spotlight Cont’d 11
SURREY COQUITLAM
YOUTH & CHILD POVERTY: THE 20 POOREST NEIGHBOURHOODS* WHERE ARE THEY?
4
RICHMOND
2
VAN CY PORT COQUITLAM
1 2
*Neighbourhoods with the largest populations of low-income children and youth
The 4 neighbourhoods with the largest populations of low-income children (ages 5 and younger) are all in Surrey
800 children and youth live in
poverty around Holly Park, more than in any other neighbourhood in Metro Vancouver
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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW
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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW
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FACTS & MAPS: OVERVIEW
Census tract area = 4km2
Number of low-income children = 290
Census tract area = 4km2
Number of low-income children = 600
Children 5 yrs and younger in low-income
Downtown Eastside, Strathcona and East Chinatown Holly Park & Guildford Mall Area
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WORK AHEAD
Explore spatial relationships with other indicators and variables (ethnicity & race, education, unemployment, commuting patterns, etc.)
Recent immigrants concentrations
Immigrants who arrived in Canada between 2006 and 2011 as a percentage of total residents
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WORK AHEAD
How are these neighbourhoods unique?
Recent immigrants concentrations
Immigrants who arrived in Canada between 2006 and 2011 as a percentage of total residents
32%
22%
10%
18%
11%
16%
9% 7% 7% 6% 7% 6% 7%
29% 25% 14% 13% 13%
HOLLY PARK KPU AREA GATEWAY STN SURREY VAN CY METRO VAN
Arrived in Canada between 2006 and 2011 Arrived in Canada between 2001 and 2005
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WORK AHEAD
Explore spatial relationships with other indicators and variables (ethnicity & race, education, unemployment, commuting patterns, etc.)
Mode of transportation – all residents – rounded to the nearest multiple of 5 COMMUTING TO WORK*
80%
15%
60%
30%
60%
35%
85%
15%
50%
30%
70%
20%
KPU AREA HOLLY PARK GATEWAY STN SURREY VAN CY METRO VAN
Car Public Transit
5% 10% 5%
15%
5% 5% 5%
Walk Bicycle
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WORK AHEAD
Publish a report on the maps Contextualize change over time Compare Surrey neighbourhoods with the neighbourhoods in other municipalities
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THE END
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TRANSPORTATION / HOUSING / INCOME / SUPPORT is the changeA Forum on Collective Impact and Reducing Poverty in Surrey
By the Surrey Poverty Reduction Coalition Monday February 16, 2015 8am-4pm Kwantlen University Conference Centre 1266672nd Ave, Surrey, BCwww.surreyprc.ca @MakeTHIS_Happen #THIS2015
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EXTRA
Measuring Poverty: LICO
LICO = Low-Income Cut-Off Standard measure for studies on poverty for many years No longer available as a standard product by Stats Canada Stats Canada discourages the use of LICO
INCOME COMPOSITION:
Employment income, interest & investment income, retirement pensions, Old Age Security pension, Canada Pension Plan benefits, employment insurance benefits, child benefits