The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Q311 Results 4 th November 2011 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Q311 Results 4 th November 2011 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Q311 Results 4 th November 2011 Important Information Certain sections in this document contain forward-looking statements as that term is defined in the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform


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SLIDE 1

The Royal Bank of Scotland Group

4th November 2011

Q311 Results

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SLIDE 2

1

Important Information

Certain sections in this document contain ‘forward-looking statements’ as that term is defined in the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, such as statements that include the words ‘expect’, ‘estimate’, ‘project’, ‘anticipate’, ‘believes’, ‘should’, ‘intend’, ‘plan’, ‘could’, ‘probability’, ‘risk’, ‘Value-at-Risk (VaR)’, ‘target’, ‘goal’, ‘objective’, ‘will’, ‘endeavour’, ‘outlook’, ‘optimistic’, ‘prospects’ and similar expressions or variations on such expressions. In particular, this document includes forward-looking statements relating, but not limited to: the Group’s restructuring plans, capitalisation, portfolios, net interest margin, capital ratios, liquidity, risk weighted assets, return on equity (ROE), profitability, cost:income ratios, leverage and loan:deposit ratios, funding and risk profile; certain ring-fencing proposals; the Group’s future financial performance; the level and extent of future impairments and write-downs, including sovereign debt impairments; the protection provided by the Asset Protection Scheme (APS); and the Group’s potential exposures to various types of market risks, such as interest rate risk, foreign exchange rate risk and commodity and equity price risk. These statements are based on current plans, estimates and projections, and are subject to inherent risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from the future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. For example, certain of the market risk disclosures are dependent on choices about key model characteristics and assumptions and are subject to various limitations. By their nature, certain of the market risk disclosures are only estimates and, as a result, actual future gains and losses could differ materially from those that have been estimated. Other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those estimated by the forward-looking statements contained in this document include, but are not limited to: the full nationalisation of the Group or other resolution procedures under the Banking Act 2009; the global economic and financial market conditions and other geopolitical risks, and their impact on the financial industry in general and on the Group in particular; the financial stability of other financial institutions, and the Group’s counterparties and borrowers; the ability to complete restructurings on a timely basis, or at all, including the disposal of certain Non-Core assets and assets and businesses required as part of the EC State Aid restructuring plan; organisational restructuring, including any adverse consequences of a failure to transfer, or delay in transferring, certain businesses, assets and liabilities from RBS Bank N.V. to RBS plc; the ability to access sufficient funding to meet liquidity needs; the extent of future write-downs and impairment charges caused by depressed asset valuations; the inability to hedge certain risks economically; costs or exposures borne by the Group arising out of the origination or sale of mortgages or mortgage-backed securities in the United States; the value and effectiveness of any credit protection purchased by the Group; unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, yield curves, foreign currency exchange rates, credit spreads, bond prices, commodity prices, equity prices and basis, volatility and correlation risks; changes in the credit ratings of the Group; ineffective management of capital or changes to capital adequacy or liquidity requirements; changes to the valuation of financial instruments recorded at fair value; competition and consolidation in the banking sector; HM Treasury exercising influence over the operations of the Group; the ability of the Group to attract or retain senior management or other key employees; regulatory or legal changes (including those requiring any restructuring of the Group’s operations) in the United Kingdom, the United States and other countries in which the Group operates or a change in United Kingdom Government policy; changes to regulatory requirements relating to capital and liquidity; changes to the monetary and interest rate policies of central banks and other governmental and regulatory bodies; impairments of goodwill; pension fund shortfalls; litigation and regulatory investigations; general operational risks; insurance claims; reputational risk; changes in UK and foreign laws, regulations, accounting standards and taxes, including changes in regulatory capital regulations and liquidity requirements; the recommendations made by the UK Independent Commission on Banking and their potential implications; the participation of the Group in the APS and the effect of the APS on the Group’s financial and capital position; the ability to access the contingent capital arrangements with HM Treasury; the conversion

  • f the B Shares in accordance with their terms; limitations on, or additional requirements imposed on, the Group’s activities as a result of HM Treasury’s investment in

the Group; and the success of the Group in managing the risks involved in the foregoing. The forward-looking statements contained in this document speak only as of the date of this announcement, and the Group does not undertake to update any forward- looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. The information, statements and opinions contained in this document do not constitute a public offer under any applicable legislation or an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any securities or financial instruments or any advice or recommendation with respect to such securities or other financial instruments.

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2

Business highlights

Capital position maintained

Core Tier 1 ratio increased to 11.3% TNAV improves to 52.6p, primarily driven by FVoD and positive AFS and cash-flow hedging

reserve movements A robust balance sheet

Group funded assets decreased by £16bn, driven by Non-Core and GBM Group LDR improved by 200bps to 112%; Core LDR 100bps better at 95%

Core Retail & Commercial earnings broadly stable despite challenging environment

Reduced risk appetite impacting income in short-term, particularly in GBM Cost programmes to be extended and reinforced

Continued improvement in liquidity and funding profile

Liquidity portfolio increased £15bn to £170bn Short-term wholesale funding declined £7bn to £141bn or £100bn excluding bank deposits £23bn 2011 term funding issuance target already achieved

Impairments experience in-line with expectations

Group impairments declined 32% q-o-q, driven by lower Ulster Bank Non-Core charges Total Ulster Bank1 impairments declined 51% due to non-repeat of land value provisions

1 Ulster Bank Core and Non-Core impairments

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3

Clear on what’s important and focus on delivery

  • Q3 focus on:

— Strengthening the safety and soundness of the Group — Maintaining a solid balance sheet through ongoing risk reduction — Continued reduction in wholesale funding reliance — Precautionary expansion of liquidity portfolio

Group – Key performance indicators Core Tier 1 Capital ratio Liquidity portfolio

4

Leverage ratio

5

Return on Equity (RoE) Cost : income ratio

12

Loan : deposit ratio (net of provisions) Short-term wholesale funding

2

YTD 2011 2013 Target 11.3% £170bn 17.5x Core 12%

9,10

Core 59%

10

112% £141bn Likely >10% c£150bn <20x Under review <50% medium term c100% <£125bn Worst point 4%

7

£90bn

3

28.7x

6

(31%)

8

97%

11

154%

1

£297bn

3

Value drivers: Balance sheet & risk:

1 As at October 2008 2Amount of unsecured wholesale funding under 1 year including bank deposits <1 year excluding derivatives collateral. 3 As of December 2008 4 Eligible assets held for

contingent liquidity purposes including cash, government issued securities and other securities eligible with central banks. 5 Funded tangible assets divided by Tier 1 Capital. 6 As of June 2008 7 As of 1 January 2008. 8 Group return on tangible equity for 2008 9 Indicative: Core attributable profit taxed at 28% on attributable core average tangible equity (c75% of Group tangible equity based on RWAs). 10 Excluding fair value of own debt (FVoD). 11 2008. 12 Adjusted cost:income ratio net of insurance claims.

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4

Group P&L

Q311 £m Q211 £m Q310 £m YTD 11 £m YTD 10 £m YTD % Chg Income 6,358 7,767 7,917 22,158 25,203 (12%) Operating expenses (3,821) (3,892) (4,096) (11,834) (12,629) (6%) Claims (734) (793) (1,142) (2,439) (3,601) (32%) PBIL1 1,803 3,082 2,679 7,885 8,973 (12%) Impairment losses (1,536) (2,264) (1,953) (5,747) (7,115) (19%) Operating profit 267 818 726 2,138 1,858 15% Other2 1,737 (1,496) (2,286) (928) (2,249) Profit/(loss) before tax 2,004 (678) (1,560) 1,210 (391) Attributable profit/(loss) 1,226 (897) (1,146) (199) (1,137) Net interest margin 1.84% 1.97% 2.03% 1.94% 2.00% Adjusted C:I ratio3 68% 56% 60% 60% 58%

1 Profit before impairment losses. 2 Includes fair value of own debt (FVoD), payment protection insurance costs, sovereign debt impairments, restructuring & integration costs, APS CDS

movements fair value changes, amortisation of intangibles, strategic disposals. 3 Calculated using income net of insurance claims.

  • Quarterly income down 18% due to £0.9bn swing in volatile items in Non-Core and GBM

income down £0.5bn

  • Impairments decreased by £728m, or 32%, driven by lower Ulster Bank Non-Core charges
  • Other items credit of £1.7bn, reflects £2.4bn FVoD credit
  • YTD operating profit of £2.1bn up 15%, led by lower impairments
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5

Net Interest Income

Net Interest Income

  • R&C NIM broadly stable at c3.2%
  • Group NIM down 13bps driven by:

– Non-Core 6bps – Liquidity 3bps – Lower rates/swap roll-off 2bps – Funding 1bp

  • AIEA remain stable as the build up in liquidity reserves was offset by

continued run-off of Non-Core and GBM reduction

1 Average Interest Earning Assets, £bn. 2 Days basis

£m Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q-o-Q Reported NII 3,404 3,578 3,302 3,233 3,078 (5%) NII for NIM calculation 3,459 3,365 3,289 3,245 3,074 (5%) R&C NII 2,803 2,818 2,812 2,812 2,817 0% Group AIEA1 676.3 661.4 658.6 661.7 664.0 0% R&C AIEA1 347.5 348.3 348.7 350.0 350.9 0% % Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q-o-Q Group 2.03 2.02 2.03 1.97 1.84 (13bps) R&C 3.20 3.21 3.27 3.22 3.19 (3bps) GBM 1.13 0.93 0.76 0.70 0.71 1bp Non-Core 1.04 1.09 0.90 0.87 0.43 (44bps)

NIM2

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6

Operating expenses

Cost progression

3,892 (145) 44 30 3,821 Q311 Q211 Compen- sation1 Investment spend Other2 Q311 £m Q211 £m Q311 vs Q211 Q311 vs Q310 Staff costs 1,963 2,099 (6%) (9%) Premises & equipment 584 563 4% (2%) Other 858 834 3% (1%) Administrative expenses 3,405 3,496 (3%) (6%) Depreciation & amortisation 416 396 5% (11%) Operating expenses 3,821 3,892 (2%) (7%) £m

Cost breakdown

  • Operating expenses reduced by 7% vs Q310, down 2% q-o-q
  • Lower GBM revenues driving decline in staff costs
  • Cost reduction programmes will be expanded

1 Includes GBM compensation reduction and reduction in rest of group bonus payments/incentives. 2 Includes non repeat of regulatory cost provisions, property provisions and VAT release

  • ffset by increased marketing spend.
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7

Group credit trends

1 Includes GRG. 2 Excludes defaulted cases. 3 Retail balances consist of UK Retail, Ulster Bank Retail, US Retail, Non-Core Retail.

Early warning indicators – Corporate Watch List1,2

Overall reduction in

Corporate driven by GBM and Non-Core - UK SME still slightly elevated

Monitoring UK

Corporate trends closely

General improvement

across retail portfolios

  • ffset by Irish mortgage

trends

£bn

Early warning indicators – Retail Watch List2

£bn

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% Non Core US R&C Ulster Bank UK Retail As % of retail exposure (rhs)

3

30 60 90 120 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Non Core US R&C Ulster Bank UK Corporate GBM As % of corporate exposure (rhs)

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8

Below the line items

  • c£2bn swing in FVoD gain due

to widening CDS

  • 2009 to Q311 cumulative APS

CDS charge of £2.2bn taken through P&L

  • Additional impairment on

Greek Government bond exposure (£142m) – marked at 37%

  • Q3 tax charge of £791m vs

£222m in Q211 due to FVoD credit being taxable – Higher rate than statutory principally reflects Irish losses £m Q311 Q211 Q311 vs Q211

FVoD 2,357 339 2,018 APS CDS – fair value changes (60) (168) 108 Amortisation of purchased intangible assets (69) (56) (13) Integration & restructuring costs (233) (208) (25) Gain on redemption of own debt 1 255 (254) Strategic disposals (49) 50 (99) PPI (850) 850 Sovereign debt impairment (142) (733) 591 Other (68) (125) 57 Total 1,737 (1,496) 3,233 Tax Tax (charge)/credit at statutory rate (531) 179 Actual tax (charge) (791) (222) Difference (260) (401)

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9

Core performance

£m Q311 Q211 Q310 YTD 11 YTD 10 YTD % Chg Net Interest Income 2,968 3,000 3,050 9,020 9,297 (3%) Non Interest Income 3,344 3,789 3,997 11,628 13,263 (12%) Total Income 6,312 6,789 7,047 20,648 22,560 (8%) Operating expenses (3,498) (3,557) (3,535) (10,853) (10,854) 0% Claims (696) (703) (998) (2,183) (3,109) (30%) PBIL1 2,118 2,529 2,514 7,612 8,597 (11%) Impairment losses (854) (853) (782) (2,579) (2,850) (10%) Operating profit 1,264 1,676 1,732 5,033 5,747 (12%) R&C Income 4,171 4,179 4,296 12,488 12,556 (1%) R&C Operating profit 962 1,044 1,100 2,977 2,734 9%

1 Profit before impairment losses.

  • Income down 7% q-o-q due to subdued GBM revenue
  • Costs and claims still well controlled, down 2% q-o-q
  • Impairment losses stable with UK Corporate still at slightly elevated levels, gradual

improvement in Retail ex Ulster Bank ytd

  • YTD Core operating profit decline reflects GBM’s more challenging environment
  • R&C ytd operating profit up 9%, ex Ulster Bank up 17%
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10

Core RoE performance

YTD Divisional RoEs 12% 11% (27%) 6% 13% 18% 30% 10% 27% 11% Total Core GBM Insurance Total R&C Ulster Bank US R&C UK Corporate Wealth UK Retail GTS

  • Retail & Commercial ex Ulster Bank

+17%

  • Ongoing cost saving programmes
  • GTS, UK Retail, Wealth and UK

Corporate operating above cost of equity

  • US R&C and Insurance showing

steady improvement

1

1 Excluding Ulster Bank, Retail & Commercial RoE is 17% ytd.

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11

Core by division

UK Retail Q311 £m Q211 £m Q311 vs Q211 % Q311 vs Q310 % Income 1,366 1,419 (4%) (1%) PBIL 694 731 (5%) 7% Impairments (195) (208) (6%) (22%) Operating profit / (loss) 499 523 (5%) 25% UK Corporate Income 948 966 (2%) (4%) PBIL 529 563 (6%) (9%) Impairments (228) (218) 5% 44% Operating profit / (loss) 301 345 (13%) (29%) Wealth Income 296 297 (0%) 12% PBIL 75 77 (3%) 0% Impairments (4) (3) 33%

  • Operating profit / (loss)

71 74 (4%) (4%) GTS1 Income 576 560 3% 5% PBIL 240 218 10% (6%) Impairments (45) (54) (17%)

  • Operating profit / (loss)

195 164 19% (23%) UK Retail

Lower investment sales and reduced fee income Impairments continue to decline RoE broadly stable

UK Corporate

NII reduction driven by loan repayments Non II higher due to GBM revenue share income,

  • ffset by asset disposals gains in Q211

A few individual impairments, SME still elevated

Wealth

Stable performance despite reduction in AUM driven

by deterioration in global equity markets

Deposits up 7% y-o-y; L&A up 10% driven by UK

mortgage lending GTS

Strong performance Income up 3% driven by Trade Finance and

International Cash Management

Provision top up on existing problem single name

1 Q311 vs Q310 movement adjusts for the sale of Global Merchant Services (GMS) in November 2010.

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12

Core by division

Ulster Bank Q311 £m Q211 £m Q311 vs Q211 % Q311 vs Q310 % Income 245 222 10% 0% PBIL 108 80 35% (2%) Impairments (327) (269) 22% 14% Operating (loss) (219) (189) 16% 24% US R&C ($m) Income 1,193 1,165 2% 2% PBIL 321 313 3% 5% Impairments (136) (107) 27% (30%) Operating profit 185 206 (10%) 64% GBM Income 1,099 1,550 (29%) (29%) PBIL 80 483 (83%) (85%) Impairments 32 (37)

  • (20%)

Operating profit 112 446 (75%) (81%) Insurance Income 961 977 (2%) (8%) Claims (695) (704) (1%) (26%) Operating profit 123 139 (12%)

  • Ulster Bank

Slowly improving economic back-drop Top-line performance boosted by higher margins Impairments up 22%, a lagging indicator Tight cost control

US R&C

Performance impacted by MSR1 impairment and

higher securities impairments

Operating profit up 15% excluding these items

GBM

Credible performance in tough markets Focus on risk, capital and liquidity One off small provision release on historic

impairment Insurance

Q2 normally seasonally stronger Q3 continues recovery path Claims reduced 26% y-o-y GWP increased £43m (4%) q-o-q, driven by Motor

and Home

1 Mortgage servicing rights

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13

GBM

Revenues

1.6 1.6 2.4 1.6 1.1 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 £bn

  • Reasonable performance overall in light of difficult market

– Difficult quarter for credit and rates trading

  • Risk and balance sheet well controlled <£400bn funded assets
  • Expect markets to remain challenging
  • Continued focus on costs and balance sheet usage

Quarterly product income

£m Q311 Q211 Q310 Rates 94 316 440 Currencies 227 234 218 Credit & mortgage markets 93 437 349 FICC 414 987 1,007 PM, Equities & Origination 685 563 547 Total 1,099 1,550 1,554

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14

42,060 3,050 684 c27,000 445 7,636 c15,000 ROI Liabilities ROI Assets Spain Italy Greece Portugal

Eurozone periphery exposure

Lending Exposure2

(326) 705 3,038 137 (906) 2,788 981 38 3,977 109 12 2,844 974 38 772 (16) 294 115 Total ROI Spain Italy Greece Portugal 31 Dec 2010 30 Jun 2011 30 Sep 2011

Direct Sovereign Bond Exposure1

Funded with Intra-Group loans and equity

Modest peripheral government exposure. Well-spread loan exposures - RoI predominantly a domestic balance sheet

Lending % of Gross L&A 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1.6% 8.7% Domestically Funded

Sovereign exposure1 reduced

£3.2bn ytd to £0.8bn (<1% of Group balance sheet)

Ex Ireland, lending is primarily

to large GBM multi-national customers

Long established domestic

in-market bank in Ireland with a well diversified portfolio and strong customer base

1 Exposure to central & local governments; includes held for trading debt securities (net) and AFS debt securities at fair value. 2 As at 30/09/11, total lending exposure, which includes central & local

  • governments. Note: this excludes non-government AFS debt securities totalling: Portugal £139m, Greece £nil, Italy £774m, Spain £6,833m (covered bond portfolio), and RoI £381m. 3 Ulster Bank &

GBM assets in Republic of Ireland.

3

£m £m

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15

Non-Core performance

£m Q311 Q211 Q310 YTD11 YTD10 Net Interest Income 164 285 438 752 1540 Non Interest Income (118) 693 432 758 1103 Total Income 46 978 870 1,510 2,643 Operating expenses (323) (335) (561) (981) (1,775) PBIL1 (277) 643 309 529 868 Claims (38) (90) (144) (256) (492) Impairment losses (682) (1,411) (1,171) (3,168) (4,265) Operating loss (997) (858) (1,006) (2,895) (3,889) TPAs2, £bn 105 113 154 RWAs, £bn 118 125 167

1 Profit before impairment losses. 2 Third party assets, excluding derivatives.

  • Income reduction in Q3 of c£900m due to non-repeat of Q2 valuation gains (c£500m), one-
  • ff charge in relation to portfolio de-risking and increased marks on credit market assets
  • Impairments £729m lower in Q3, primarily due to non-repeat of Q2 Irish development land

provision

  • TPAs reduced 7% q-o-q, evenly split across disposals and run-off
  • RWAs declined broadly in-line with TPAs; £3bn due to disposals
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16

Non-Core run-down progress

258 201 138 105 96 85 36 21 30-40 8

2008 2009 2010 FY 2011

1

2012 2013

£bn

Un-drawn commitments Funded assets 153bn 65-75bn Q3 2011

Funded assets down 59% from FY08

reflecting:

— £66bn (58%) in Corporate — £36bn (77%) reduction in Markets — £28bn (44%)

2 reduction in CRE

— £13bn (62%) reduction in Retail

1 Previous target for funded assets for 2011 was £118bn. 2 47% reduction on a like-for-like basis adjusting for replacement of Irish Mortgages with Irish Commercial Real Estate announced at H1

2010 results. As at 30 June 2010 the CRE portfolio transferred was £5.0bn.

Target FY11-FY13 Good progress in the quarter: — £8bn funded asset reduction in

Q311, £33bn YTD

— On track to meet FY11 target — Increased disposal losses and

reduced impairments expected in 2012

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17

Customer Deposits Wholesale Funding >1 Year Wholesale Funding <1 Year Bank Deposits

Funding & Liquidity

Funding Profile is Improving

50 100 150 200 250 FY08 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% Group Customer funding gap (£bn) Group Loan to Deposit ratio (%) Core Loan to Deposit ratio (%)

FY08 Q311 £733bn

Actively terming out funding

FY09 £808bn £952bn 55% 50% 45% % Wholesale Funding >1yr1

£bn

48% 51% 59%

1 Wholesale debt securities and subordinated liabilities outstanding with residual maturity greater than one year, excluding bank deposits. 2 Debt securities and subordinated liabilities excluding bank

deposits

Group LDR improves 200bps to 112%, Core improves 100bps to 95% Deposits now 59% of funding up 100bps from Q211 Wholesale funding2 down 8% (£19bn) from Q211, short term down 5% (£6.7bn)

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18

Funding - Issuance

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

£bn

2010 2011 2012

Target Issuance

2013 Asset reduction lessens market funding requirement

Gross Issuance CGS Maturity2 Non-Core Run-down1 £23bn 2011 term funding

target already achieved

2012 outlook: — Indicative 2012 issuance

target of c£20bn term issuance

— Make-up of issuance

focused on secured and private markets

— Non-Core run-down

continues to exceed maturities

1 Non-Core third party assets excluding derivatives. 2 UK Government Credit Guarantee Scheme. 3 Unguaranteed term debt and subordinated liabilities contractual maturity.

Non-Core Run-Down Remaining Term Maturity3

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19

48 15 9 7 6 57 59 39 32 36 33 49 45 77 AAA to AA- rated governments Treasury Bills Other government securities Cash and central bank balances Unencumbered collateral

Short-term wholesale funding usage reduced; Liquidity pool above target

Short-term wholesale funding1 halved since 2008 Liquidity pool increased in size and quality

90 155 170 297 148 141 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 £bn

FY08 3Q11

Liquidity pool Short-term wholesale funding1

2Q11

1 Wholesale funding and bank deposits with residual maturity of less than 1 year, excluding derivative cash collateral.

FY08 3Q11 3Q10 2Q11

£90bn £151bn £155bn £170bn

£150bn 2013 Target

Short term wholesale funding position improved – down £7bn in Q311 to £141bn

  • r down to £100bn excluding bank deposits

Liquidity pool increased by £15bn in the quarter to £170bn and is above long-term

target of £150bn reflecting prudent approach to current market stresses

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20

RWA & Capital progression

RWAs, £bn Core Tier One Ratio, % Q211 APS relief 434 95 529 Q211 APS relief 9.8 1.3 11.1

Gross RWAs down £17bn to £512bn, driven by Non-Core and GBM de-leveraging and de-

risking activities

Core Tier One ratio increased to 11.3%, despite further Greek bond impairment, APS roll-

  • ff and a small underlying attributable loss

Estimated impact of CRD3 and Basel III reduced by c20%, c£20bn, due to risk reduction,

restructuring and mitigation in Non-Core and GBM:

— FY11 CRD3 RWA impact reduced to c£20bn vs £25bn-£30bn previous guidance — Basel III RWA impact reduced to c£60bn-£75bn vs £75bn-£85bn previous guidance

11.3 Q311 Q311 512 423 89 Non-Core Disposals / Run-off Risk reductions Other (5) (7) (5) 10.0 1.3 (0.1) (0.1) 0.4 Attributable loss1 APS RWAs

1 Attributable loss ex fair value of own debt

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21

Conclusions

Funding and liquidity strengthened despite difficult markets Robust capital levels maintained Retail & Commercial businesses broadly stable GBM facing difficult market conditions Group cost programmes to be extended and reinforced We remain well positioned to execute our plans with a strong balance sheet

and competitive cost base

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Appendix

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SLIDE 24

23

Ireland economic update

GDP quarterly change, %

  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 Q 1 8 Q 2 8 Q 3 8 Q 4 8 Q 1 9 Q 2 9 Q 3 9 Q 4 9 Q 1 1 Q 2 1 Q 3 1 Q 4 1 Q 1 1 1 Q 2 1 1

  • 10
  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 Q/Q (lhs) Y/Y (rhs)

Driven by the exports sector, % change

  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 Q 1 3 Q 4 3 Q 3 4 Q 2 5 Q 1 6 Q 4 6 Q 3 7 Q 2 8 Q 1 9 Q 4 9 Q 3 1 Q 2 1 1 Goods Sevices Total

Unit labour costs Harmonised index of consumer prices, % change

  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 6

Aug-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11

Ireland UK Euro zone 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012f

Euro area (17 countries) Ireland Greece Spain Portugal

Source:CSO Source:CSO Source: European Commission; 2000 = 100 Source: Ecowin

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SLIDE 25

24

Ireland economic update

Total employment (Seasonally Adjusted)

  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60

Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11

  • 10
  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 change in qtr (000s) (lhs) % yoy (rhs)

Consumer confidence & Retail sales volumes 10 year Government bond spreads relative to Germany EU/IMF programme primary govt. budget balance targets

Source:CSO Source:CSO

20 40 60 80 100

Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11

  • 10
  • 5

5 10

Consumer Confidence (lhs) Retail Sales (rhs)

3m avg y/y % Index

  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 IMF Target Actual Performance vs benchmark

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Ireland Spain Portugal Italy Greece

€bn

Source: Dept of Finance Source: Bloomberg

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25

Ulster Bank – Asset deep dive

Ulster Bank Core - gross L&A, £35.5bn Ulster Bank Non-Core - gross L&A1, £14.3bn

1 Excludes EMEA L&A of £0.4bn. 2 Risk elements in lending.

Q311 L&A £35.5bn

Mortgages £20.7bn 58% CRE – Investment £4.2bn, 12% Corporate – Other £8.1bn, 23% Personal unsecured £1.6bn, 4% CRE: 56% RoI 23% NI 21% UK Mortgages: 89% RoI 11% NI CRE - Development £0.9bn, 3% CRE - Investment £3.9bn, 27% CRE - Development £8.7bn, 61% Other £1.7bn 12% CRE: 64% RoI 27% NI 9% UK

Q311 L&A £14.3bn

Total portfolio of £49.8bn1, REIL of £17bn, covered at 52% - ‘in the pack’ versus peers Core mortgage book of £20.7bn, 10% non-performing2, 40% covered – lagging economic

indicator

Non-Core portfolio of £14.3bn1: — CRE development book of £8.7bn, 88% non-performing, 57% covered — CRE investment book of £3.9bn, 68% non-performing, 47% covered

slide-27
SLIDE 27

26

Ulster Bank – REIL, provision & coverage trends by category

Core Ulster Bank, £35.5bn loan book – 46% provision coverage1

2.14 2.01 1.78 0.68 0.77 0.85 8% 9% 10% Q111 Q211 Q311

£bn Mortgages

1.79 1.82 1.68 0.89 1.00 1.03 19% 21% 22% Q111 Q211 Q311

£bn Corporate - Other

1.16 0.84 0.77 0.28 0.33 0.37 18% 19% 27% Q111 Q211 Q311

£bn CRE - Investment REILs, £bn Provisions, £bn REIL as % of gross L&A

Non-Core Ulster Bank, £14.3bn loan book – 54% provision coverage1

7.69 7.85 7.59 3.52 4.37 4.34 86% 87% 88% Q111 Q211 Q311

£bn CRE - Development

2.68 2.66 2.45 1.06 1.23 1.25 62% 65% 68% Q111 Q211 Q311

£bn CRE - Investment

1.18 1.23 1.19 0.66 0.66 0.67 59% 68% 70% Q111 Q211 Q311

£bn Corporate - Other

1 Provisions as a percentage of risk elements in lending (REILs)

38% 38% 40% 53% 55% 57% 36% 40% 32% 43% 46% 46% 55% 54% 57% % Provision coverage1 46% 56% 57%

slide-28
SLIDE 28

27

Non-Core composition

  • Structured Credit

Portfolio £20.1bn

  • Equities £5.0bn
  • Credit Collateral

Financing £8.6bn

  • Exotic Credit Trading

£1.4bn

  • Sempra £6.3bn
  • Other Markets £6.2bn

Markets

2008 Year-End funded assets

Total Assets = £258bn

  • UK Mortgages &

Personal Lending £3.2bn

  • US Mortgages &

Personal Lending £11.9bn

  • Ireland Mortgages

£6.5bn

Retail

  • Real Estate Finance £38.7bn
  • UK B&C £11.4bn
  • Ireland £9.9bn1
  • US £2.8bn

Commercial Real Estate

  • Project & Export

Finance £21.3bn

  • Asset Finance

£24.2bn

  • Leveraged Finance

£15.9bn

  • Corporate Loans &

Securitisations £41.6bn

  • Asset Management

£1.9bn

  • Countries £6.7bn

Corporate

47 21

SME

  • UK SME

£4.2bn

  • US SME

£1.6bn

  • RBS Insurance £2.0bn
  • Bank of China / Linea

Directa £4.5bn

  • Whole Businesses £0.8bn
  • Shared Assets and Other

£1.5bn

Other

112 6 63 9

  • Structured Credit

Portfolio £9.6bn1

  • Equities £0.6bn
  • Credit Collateral

Financing £0.1bn

  • Exotic Credit Trading

£0.1bn

  • Sempra £0.3bn

Total Assets = £105bn

Markets

  • UK Mortgages &

Personal Lending £1.5bn

  • US Mortgages &

Personal Lending £5.0bn

  • Countries £0.9bn

Retail Commercial Real Estate

  • Project & Export

Finance £13.3bn

  • Asset Finance

£17.6bn

  • Leveraged Finance

£4.5bn

  • Corporate Loans &

Securitisations £10.0bn

  • Asset Management

£0.6bn

  • Countries £0.8bn

Corporate

11 8

  • UK SME

£2.1bn

  • US SME

£0.3bn

  • RBS Insurance £1.3bn
  • Shared Assets and

Other £0.6bn

Other

  • Real Estate Finance £22.0bn
  • UK B&C £4.1bn
  • Ireland £8.1bn2
  • US £1.0bn

47 2 35 2

Q3 2011 funded assets

1 SCP includes £5.5bn of Corporate (o/w CLOs £4.6bn), £1.0bn RMBS, £1.2bn CMBS and £1.1bn SPVs 2 Affected by the replacement of Irish Mortgages with Irish Commercial Real Estate

announced at H1 2010 results. As at 30 June 2010 the CRE portfolio transferred was £5.0bn.

SME