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The Riksbanks monetary policy 26 November 2020 Increased spread of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Riksbanks monetary policy 26 November 2020 Increased spread of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Riksbanks monetary policy 26 November 2020 Increased spread of infection new downturn in the economy Zero interest rate and extended purchases of securities provide support in an uncertain time Increased spread of infection and new
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Increased spread of infection and new restrictions
Percentage of those tested. Weekly data until 15 November. Source: ECDC
5 10 15 20 25 5 10 15 20 25 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Europe, share of positive test Sweden, share of positive tests
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Already vulnerable sectors further impacted
Percentage change in turnover on a daily level, compared with 2019, in a sample
- f around 600 restaurants with an average turnover of SEK 18 billion.
Source: Caspeco.se
- 80%
- 60%
- 40%
- 20%
0% 20%
- 80%
- 60%
- 40%
- 20%
0% 20% Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Daily turnover Moving average (7 days)
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- 25
- 20
- 15
- 10
- 5
5 10 15
- 25
- 20
- 15
- 10
- 5
5 10 15 10 12 14 16 18 20
Other services Hotel and restaurant Total employment
Vulnerable groups have been impacted particularly severely on the labour market
Number of employed, annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data Source: Statistics Sweden
Quarter 2:
- 20.6 %
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New downturn in Swedish economy
- Six months of weak growth
- Households and companies are better prepared, however
- Small movements on the financial markets so far
- Support measures from governments and central banks in
place
- Once restrictions are lifted, the recovery may be rapid
But there is considerable uncertainty
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Long and uncertain way back
Index, 2019 Q4 = 100, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Extensive monetary policy support for as long as necessary
Extending and increasing asset purchases Up to SEK 700 billion over the full year 2021 Zero repo rate over next few years
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Substantial support from world’s central banks
Central banks’ balance sheet totals, percentage of GDP Source: Macrobond
20 40 60 10 20 30 40 50 60 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 The ECB The Federal Reserve The Riksbank
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Low interest rates to households and companies – supporting the recovery and inflation
Per cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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A combination of monetary and fiscal policy is making support measures more effective
The Riksbank’s measures effective in keeping interest rates low Fiscal policy more effective support for adversely affected sectors Extensive economic policy support required for a long time
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Volatile but gradually rising inflation
Per cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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