The Economic Consequences of Trade and Immigration for Local Labor - - PDF document
The Economic Consequences of Trade and Immigration for Local Labor Markets Gordon Hanson University of California, San Diego And National Bureau of Economic Research Presentation delivered at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the International
❯❈❙❉ ❛♥❞ ◆❇❊❘
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Mexico USA
Total fertility rate (live births per woman)
❞❡♠❛♥❞ ❢♦r ♠✐❞❞❧❡✲s❦✐❧❧ ✇♦r❦❡rs ✭❆✉t♦r ✫ ❉♦r♥✮
♠❛♥✉❢❛❝t✉r✐♥❣✱ r❡❞✉❝✐♥❣ ❧❛❜♦r ❞❡♠❛♥❞ ✭❆✉t♦r ❉♦r♥ ✫ ❍❛♥s♦♥✮
r❡❞✉❝❡❞ ✇❛❣❡s ❢♦r s♦♠❡ ❯❙ ✇♦r❦❡rs ✭❇♦r❥❛s✮
✶ ▲❛❜♦r ♠❛r❦❡t s❤♦❝❦s ✷ ▲♦❝❛❧ ▲❛❜♦r ▼❛r❦❡t ❊①♣♦s✉r❡ ✸ ▲❛❜♦r ▼❛r❦❡t ■♠♣❛❝ts
5 10 15 20 percent 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year China Other emerging economies Brazil, India, Russia Frontier economies
Shares of world manufacturing value added
$26.3&bil& $10.3&bil& $121.6&bil& $23.0&bil& $330.0&bil& $57.4&bil& $0&bil& $50&bil& $100&bil& $150&bil& $200&bil& $250&bil& $300&bil& $350&bil& $400&bil& Imports& Exports&
Trade&Flows&Between&U.S.&and&&China&
(Billions&of&2007&US&Dollars)& 1991& 2000& 2007&
Notes: Numbers in parentheses in the legend indicate average growth of import penetration within industry group, weighted by 1991 employment. Values for growth of import penetraton are winsorized at 100.
.2 .4 .6 .8 1 Share of Production Workers 1991 20 40 60 80 100 Growth of Import Penetration 1991-2007 food/tobacco (0.6) textile/apparel/leather (16.7) wood/furniture (15.2) paper/print (1.4) chemical/petroleum (1.4) plastic/rubber/glass (7.0) metal/metal products (6.1) machines/electrical (15.2) transportation (1.7) toys/other (32.6)
Growth of Trade Exposure vs Share of Production Workers
.08 .1 .12 .14 Manufacturing emp/pop .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 Import penetration 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Year China import penetration ratio Manufacturing employment/Population
.1 .2 .3 .4 .5 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Year less than high school high school degree some college college degree advanced degree
(Source: CPS, 1994 to 2012.)
Foreign born share of hours worked by education group
.1 .2 .3 .4 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Year less than high school high school degree some college college degree advanced degree
(Source: CPS, 1994 to 2012.)
Share of hours worked by education group
10 20 30 40 50 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Year workers in STEM occupations with BA degree workers in STEM occupations with advanced degree
(Source: CPS, 1994 to 2012.)
Foreign born share of employment, STEM occupations (%)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 share of employment (%) Software Developers Software Engineers Electrical Engineers Computer Scientists Network Administrators Other Engineers Operations Research
(Source: ACS 2009, 2010, 2011.)
Foreign born worker share, MA degree
Share of ‘Routine’ Occupations by Occupational Skill Percentile
.1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 20 40 60 80 100 Skill Percentile (Ranked by 1980 Occupational Mean Wage)
Routine Occupation Share
✶ ▲❛❜♦r ♠❛r❦❡t s❤♦❝❦s ✷ ▲♦❝❛❧ ▲❛❜♦r ▼❛r❦❡t ❊①♣♦s✉r❡ ✸ ▲❛❜♦r ▼❛r❦❡t ■♠♣❛❝ts
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♣❡r ✇♦r❦❡r × ✐♥❞✉str②✬s ✶✾✾✶ s❤❛r❡ ♦❢ ❈❩ ❡♠♣❧♦②♠❡♥t✮
✭❛s ♦♣♣♦s❡❞ t♦ ❛❜str❛❝t✲t❛s❦ ♦r ♠❛♥✉❛❧✲t❛s❦ ♦❝❝✉♣❛t✐♦♥s✮
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✶ ▲❛❜♦r ♠❛r❦❡t s❤♦❝❦s ✷ ▲♦❝❛❧ ▲❛❜♦r ▼❛r❦❡t ❊①♣♦s✉r❡ ✸ ▲❛❜♦r ▼❛r❦❡t ■♠♣❛❝ts
!.83%%% !.21%%% .19%%% !.01%%% .65%%% .21%%% !1.0%%% !0.8%%% !0.6%%% !0.4%%% !0.2%%% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8%
Import'Exposure- Routine'Employment'Share-
Import%Exposure%per%Worker,%Ini>al%Rou>ne%Employment%Share%and% Changes%in%Employment%Status%in%Commu>ng%Zones,%1990!2007%
!
All%Working!Age%Adults%
Emp/Pop% Unemp/Pop% NILF/Pop%
$3.65& $8.40& $10.00& $15.04& $18.27& $0& $2& $4& $6& $8& $10& $12& $14& $16& $18& $20& Unemployment& and&TAA&Benefits& SSA&Disability& Benefits& SSA&ReRrement& Benefits& Other&Government& Income&Assistance& Govt&Medical& Benefits&
Dollar&Change&&
Imports&from&China&and&Change&of&Government&Transfer&Receipts&in& CommuRng&Zones&(1990L2007)&&
& Effect&of&an&$1000&Per&Worker&Increase&in&Imports&from&China&during& 1990=2007&on&Dollar&Change&of&Annual&Transfer&Receipts&per&Capita&