The Book Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The question The theory The data and model Results The Book Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question The theory The data and model Results Should the Democrats move left on economic policy? Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Columbia University 6 Aug 2008 Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question The theory The data and model Results Should the Democrats move left on economic policy? ◮ Paul Krugman: “I read a lot of polls, and they suggest that the center of public opinion on the issues is, if anything, left of the center of the Democratic Party.” ◮ Harry Truman: “Given a choice between a fake Republican and a real one, the public will choose the real Republican every time.” Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question The theory The data and model Results Should the Democrats move left on economic policy? ◮ Paul Krugman: “I read a lot of polls, and they suggest that the center of public opinion on the issues is, if anything, left of the center of the Democratic Party.” ◮ Harry Truman: “Given a choice between a fake Republican and a real one, the public will choose the real Republican every time.” Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question The theory The data and model Results Should the Democrats move left on economic policy? ◮ Paul Krugman: “I read a lot of polls, and they suggest that the center of public opinion on the issues is, if anything, left of the center of the Democratic Party.” ◮ Harry Truman: “Given a choice between a fake Republican and a real one, the public will choose the real Republican every time.” Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question The theory The data and model Results Or maybe the Democrats should move to the right? ◮ Bill Clinton’s success with welfare reform and “triangulation” ◮ Over twice as many Americans identify as “conservative” than “liberal” Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question The theory The data and model Results Or maybe the Democrats should move to the right? ◮ Bill Clinton’s success with welfare reform and “triangulation” ◮ Over twice as many Americans identify as “conservative” than “liberal” Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question The theory The data and model Results Or maybe the Democrats should move to the right? ◮ Bill Clinton’s success with welfare reform and “triangulation” ◮ Over twice as many Americans identify as “conservative” than “liberal” Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question Median voter theorem The theory Multiple dimensions The data and model Measurement error Results Median voter theorem R D R D R −4 −2 0 2 4 −4 −2 0 2 4 −4 −2 0 2 4 Position on the economy Position on the economy Position on the economy ◮ Where should the Democrats go to win the most votes? Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question Median voter theorem The theory Multiple dimensions The data and model Measurement error Results Alternative model: Equilibrium ◮ Politicians are optimizers: they should already be at their optimal positions ◮ We don’t literally believe this, but . . . Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question Median voter theorem The theory Multiple dimensions The data and model Measurement error Results Alternative model: Equilibrium ◮ Politicians are optimizers: they should already be at their optimal positions ◮ We don’t literally believe this, but . . . Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question Median voter theorem The theory Multiple dimensions The data and model Measurement error Results Alternative model: Equilibrium ◮ Politicians are optimizers: they should already be at their optimal positions ◮ We don’t literally believe this, but . . . Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question Median voter theorem The theory Multiple dimensions The data and model Measurement error Results Extending the models: multiple dimensions conservative conservative on other issues on other issues R R liberal on conservative liberal on conservative economy on economy economy on economy D D liberal on liberal on other issues other issues ◮ Where will the Democrats win the most votes? Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question Median voter theorem The theory Multiple dimensions The data and model Measurement error Results Extending the model: measurement error ◮ Voters don’t know (or disagree) on where the candidates stand ◮ Something like 30% of voters thought Kerry was more “conservative” than Bush ◮ It no longer makes sense to be just next to the other party ◮ Return to median voter picture Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question Median voter theorem The theory Multiple dimensions The data and model Measurement error Results Extending the model: measurement error ◮ Voters don’t know (or disagree) on where the candidates stand ◮ Something like 30% of voters thought Kerry was more “conservative” than Bush ◮ It no longer makes sense to be just next to the other party ◮ Return to median voter picture Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question Median voter theorem The theory Multiple dimensions The data and model Measurement error Results Extending the model: measurement error ◮ Voters don’t know (or disagree) on where the candidates stand ◮ Something like 30% of voters thought Kerry was more “conservative” than Bush ◮ It no longer makes sense to be just next to the other party ◮ Return to median voter picture Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question Median voter theorem The theory Multiple dimensions The data and model Measurement error Results Extending the model: measurement error ◮ Voters don’t know (or disagree) on where the candidates stand ◮ Something like 30% of voters thought Kerry was more “conservative” than Bush ◮ It no longer makes sense to be just next to the other party ◮ Return to median voter picture Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question Median voter theorem The theory Multiple dimensions The data and model Measurement error Results Extending the model: measurement error ◮ Voters don’t know (or disagree) on where the candidates stand ◮ Something like 30% of voters thought Kerry was more “conservative” than Bush ◮ It no longer makes sense to be just next to the other party ◮ Return to median voter picture Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question The theory Data The data and model Model Results Data from National Election Study: October, 2004 ◮ Scores based on respondent’s placement on 3 economic issues and 3 social issues ◮ Perception of George W. Bush ◮ Perception of John Kerry ◮ Perception of self Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question The theory Data The data and model Model Results Data from National Election Study: October, 2004 ◮ Scores based on respondent’s placement on 3 economic issues and 3 social issues ◮ Perception of George W. Bush ◮ Perception of John Kerry ◮ Perception of self Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question The theory Data The data and model Model Results Data from National Election Study: October, 2004 ◮ Scores based on respondent’s placement on 3 economic issues and 3 social issues ◮ Perception of George W. Bush ◮ Perception of John Kerry ◮ Perception of self Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question The theory Data The data and model Model Results Data from National Election Study: October, 2004 ◮ Scores based on respondent’s placement on 3 economic issues and 3 social issues ◮ Perception of George W. Bush ◮ Perception of John Kerry ◮ Perception of self Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question The theory Data The data and model Model Results Data from National Election Study: October, 2004 ◮ Scores based on respondent’s placement on 3 economic issues and 3 social issues ◮ Perception of George W. Bush ◮ Perception of John Kerry ◮ Perception of self Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?

The question The theory Data The data and model Model Results Placements of Bush, Kerry, and self Perceptions of Bush Perceptions of Kerry Respondents’ positions Bush on social policies 8 Kerry on social policies 8 8 Self on social policies 4 4 4 B 0 0 0 K −4 −4 −4 −8 −8 −8 −8 −4 0 4 8 −8 −4 0 4 8 −8 −4 0 4 8 Bush on economic policies Kerry on economic policies Self on economic policies Andrew Gelman and Jeff Cai Should the Democrats Move Left?