TF Database Analysis Luiz Cheim and Lan Lin ABB Inc. Luiz Cheim, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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TF Database Analysis Luiz Cheim and Lan Lin ABB Inc. Luiz Cheim, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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IEEE C57.104 Revision (Nov 2011) TF Database Analysis Luiz Cheim and Lan Lin ABB Inc. Luiz Cheim, Lan Lin - IEEE Fall Meeting - Milwaukee 10/23/2012 Building the Database + HQ = 521,700 records Transformers Age Groups Transformers Power

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Luiz Cheim, Lan Lin - IEEE Fall Meeting - Milwaukee 10/23/2012

IEEE C57.104 Revision (Nov 2011)

TF Database Analysis

Luiz Cheim and Lan Lin ABB Inc.

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Building the Database

+ HQ = 521,700 records

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Transformers Age Groups

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Transformers Power Ratings

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Transformers Voltage Classes

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Transformers Oil Preservation Type

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Reason for DGA

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Percentiles of Hydrocarbons (all data)

% ppm

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Percentiles of CO,CO2 and TDCG (all data)

% ppm

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Percentiles of H2, C2H2 and CO vs. Age Groups

% ppm

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Percentiles of H2, C2H2 and CO vs. Voltage Class

% ppm

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Percentiles of H2, C2H2 and CO vs. Power Ratings

% ppm

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Percentiles of H2, C2H2 and CO vs. Source of Data

% ppm

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Percentiles of All Gases (Suspicious Units)

% ppm

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Percentiles of H2, C2H2 and CO vs. Power Ratings (Suspicious Units)

% ppm

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Percentiles of H2, C2H2 and CO vs. Voltage Class (Suspicious Units)

% ppm

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Percentiles of H2, C2H2 and CO vs. Oil Preservation

% ppm

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Annual Rate of Gas Formation (ppm/year) Percentiles of All Gases

% ppm

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After that…

  • 1. HQ Data incorporated
  • 2. Discussed unknown oil preservation system
  • 3. Question of Rate of Gas Formation vs Levels
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Montreal Meeting (May 2o12)

Revisited Percentiles with Following Condition: O2/ (N2 + O2) < 5% and N2 > 70,000 => N2 Blanket 5 – 15% Membrane/Rubber Bag > 15% Open Breather

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Legend (next slides)

IEEE Condition 1 Limit Cigre Typical Value (Brochure SCD1.32, 2010) AFMo Arc Furnace, 90th Percentile (mineral oil) AFSi Arc Furnace, 90th Percentile (Silicon oil)

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H2 – All Data

IEEE AFMo AFSi Cigre

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CH4 – All Data

IEEE AFMo AFSi Cigre

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C2H2 – All Data

IEEE AFMo AFSi Cigre

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C2H4 – All Data

IEEE AFMo AFSi Cigre

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C2H6 – All Data

IEEE AFMo AFSi Cigre

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CO – All Data

IEEE AFMo AFSi = 1936

Cigre

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CO2 – All Data

IEEE AFMo AFSi = 25,387

Cigre

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TDCG – All Data

IEEE AFMo AFSi = 2,160

Cigre

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Further Breakdown…

Given a type of oil preservation (say, N2 Blanket) What happens to Gas Levels vs Voltage Class, MVA, Age?

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H2, 90th Percentile – Per Voltage Class

IEEE AFMo AFSi Cigre

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H2, 90th Percentile – Per MVA Rating

IEEE AFMo AFSi Cigre

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H2, 90th Percentile – Per Age Group

IEEE AFMo AFSi Cigre

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C2H6, 90th Percentile – Per Voltage Class

Cigre

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Gas Rate Subject

  • 1. Should we calculate rates percentiles for all gases?
  • 2. Should we associate rates to levels? How?
  • 3. Cigre recent experience
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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Cigre Levels vs Sampling Intervals

Cigre SCD1.32 Brochure, December 2010

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Cigre Rates vs Sampling Intervals

Cigre SCD1.32 Brochure, December 2010

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Cigre SCD1.32 Brochure December 2010

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Proposal Under Discussion – Level vs Rate

Frequency of DGA

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Proposal Under Discussion – Level vs Rate

Severity of Fault (?)

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Gas Rates (IEEE Database)

t ppm  

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Gas Rates (IEEE Database)

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Gas Rate Issues

72 115 133 days

day ppm t ppm / 323 . 133 72 115     

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Gas Rate Issues

72 115 133 days

year ppm t ppm / 118 133 72 115     

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Gas Rate Issues  ± 15% Cigre Typical Lab Accuracy

133 days

year ppm t ppm / 41 133 83 98     

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Gas Rate Issues

72 115 343 days

year ppm t ppm / 50 343 115 68      

68

?

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Gas Rate Issues

year ppm t ppm / 5 . 13   

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Another Example

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Another Example 27 ppm/year

500 ppm/year

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Inherent Uncertainty in Trend Calculation

  • 1. Multiple Laboratories
  • 2. Lab Variations (repeatability, reproducibility, accuracy)
  • 3. Seasonal variations (temperature, etc)
  • 4. Sampling errors (humans, sample contamination, etc)
  • 5. Type of Transformer (N2, etc…)
  • 6. Sampling interval??
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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Distribution of DGA Sampling Interval

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Distribution of DGA Sampling Interval

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Distribution of DGA Sampling Interval

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Gas Rates Distribution vs DGA Sampling Interval

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Gas Rates Distribution vs DGA Sampling Interval

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Gas Rates Distribution vs DGA Sampling Interval

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Gas Rates Distribution vs DGA Sampling Interval

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Gas Rates Distribution vs DGA Sampling Interval

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Gas Rates Distribution vs DGA Sampling Interval

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Gas Rates Distribution vs DGA Sampling Interval

38%

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Rates Distribution vs DGA Sampling Interval

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis

53 204

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Food for Thought!

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Proposal for Discussion – Level vs Rate

Severity of Fault (N2 Blanket, etc)

90th | t 95th | t …

Table conditioned to t = Sampling Interval

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Rate of Gas Increase vs Sampling Interval???

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Rate of Gas Increase vs Sampling Interval???

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Revision C57.104 – TF on Data Analysis Rate of Gas Increase vs Sampling Interval???

Food for Thought…

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