TEEKAY OFFSHORE PARTNERS INVESTOR DAY
September 30, 2014
Photo Credit: John Mikal Torgersen
TEEKAY OFFSHORE PARTNERS INVESTOR DAY September 30, 2014 Photo - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
TEEKAY OFFSHORE PARTNERS INVESTOR DAY September 30, 2014 Photo Credit: John Mikal Torgersen KENNETH HVID Chief Strategy Officer 2 2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements (as defined in Section
Photo Credit: John Mikal Torgersen
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This presentation contains forward-looking statements (as defined in Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) which reflect management's current views with respect to certain future events and performance. All statements included in or accompanying this presentation, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees and actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Forward- looking statements in this presentation include, among others, statements regarding: the fundamentals in and growth potential of the
in new offshore projects or to grow organically; the accretive nature of any acquisitions and any future increases in the Partnership’s distributable cash flows; the amount of the Partnership’s forward fee-rate revenues; estimated future total assets of the Partnership and its segments; estimated capital expenditures for existing growth projects; illustrative annual distribution growth of the Partnership; the cost and timing of delivery of new and converted vessels and commencement of their time-charter contracts; the timing of completion of operational testing on the HiLoad DP vessel; the status, timing, cost and expected distributable cash flow to be generated from the potential acquisition by the Partnership of the Knarr FPSO; the timing and certainty of entering into long-term financing and charter contracts for the FAU newbuildings prior to their deliveries; the timing and certainty of the Partnership’s joint venture with Odebrecht completing negotiations for the Libra FPSO project with Petrobras, and the expected related cost and charter period; expected additional project bidding by the Partnership; the Partnership’s FPSO deal execution capacity; and the potential for Teekay Corporation or third parties to offer additional vessels or projects to the Partnership and the Partnership agreeing to acquire such vessels or projects. The following factors are among those that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties, and that should be considered in evaluating any such statement: vessel operations and oil production volumes; significant changes in oil prices; variations in expected levels of field maintenance; increased operating expenses; levels of oil production in the North Sea and Brazil
Partnership to secure financing or charter contracts for FAU newbuildings; changes in exploration, production and storage of offshore oil and gas, either generally or in particular regions; delays in the commencement of time-charters; the inability to successfully complete the
to acquire the Knarr FPSO unit; failure to complete negotiations with Petrobras for the Libra FPSO project; potential delays in the commencement of operations of the Knarr FPSO unit; the Partnership’s ability to raise adequate financing to purchase additional assets; and other factors discussed in the Partnership’s filings from time to time with the SEC, including its Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013. The Partnership expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in the Partnership’s expectations with respect thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.
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○ Floating production ○ Offshore logistics
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$7.8 billion
fee-based revenues Deepwater
production is set to double by 2025 Market leader in harsh weather FPSOs and shuttle tankers $3.2 billion
growth
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Distribution CAGR Since IPO in 2006
2006
Contracts
Customers
duration of 5.3 years (excluding options)
Total Shareholder Return Since IPO
2014
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North Sea
Brazil
Falcon Spirit FSO Suksan Salamander FSO Dampier Spirit FSO Pattani Spirit FSO
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80% 7% 13% 56% 37% 3% 4% 30% 49% 6% 2% 9% 4%
true “pure-play” in the build-out of offshore crude oil production
Total Assets 2007 by Segment
Total Assets $2.0B Total Assets $3.9B Total Assets $7.1B*
Conventional Tankers FSOs Shuttle Tankers FPSOs FAUs Towing Total Assets 2013 by Segment Total Assets 2013 PF* by Segment
* December 2013 pro forma to include known growth projects delivering through 2017.
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Forward Fee-Based Revenues by Segment* Average Remaining Contract Length by Segment*
FPSO FSO Shuttle Tankers Conventional Tankers FAU
6 years 5 years 4 years 4 years 3 years
Total Forward Fee-Based Revenues
* Excludes extension options and includes the Knarr FPSO which has been offered to Teekay Offshore
56% 31% 9% 3% 1%
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FPSO (Shipshape) FSO Floating Accommodation HiLoad DP Ocean Towage FPSO (Cylindrical)
Offshore Production
Shuttle Tankers
Offshore Logistics
Teekay Offshore’s growth driven by:
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TERMINAL REFINERY OFFSHORE UNITS CONVENTIONAL FLOATING ACCOMMODATION HI-LOAD FSO
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OFFSHORE PLATFORM OFFSHORE PLATFORM
TOWAGE & INSTALLATION SHUTTLE FPSO
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With deepwater taking an increasing share
disappearing; new supply will increasingly come from unconventional plays
production is set to double by 2025
are at the forefront of these new developments
ExxonMobil Eni Statoil Noble ExxonMobil Eni Statoil Noble
2 4 6 8 10 12 Million boe/d
Source: IHS
ExxonMobil Eni Statoil
Shell
BP
Total Chevron Petrobras
Others
Deepwater Oil Production by Company
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8% 20% 21% 23% 28%
Oil Sands Conventional Onshore Conventional Shallow Deepwater Unconventional
7% 18% 19% 31% 25%
2020 New Production Sources
Top 26 IOCs Top 26 IOCs + Petrobras
Total 16 mb/d Total 18 mb/d
Overall production volume growth of the top IOCs requires a balanced production portfolio, despite an increased focus on unconventional sources by many Independents
Source: IHS
Rising to 31% when Petrobras is Added
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Known Growth Capex by Segment
FSO 2014 Dropdown FPSOs (Estimated) 2016 2015 2017 Towage Vessels Shuttle / Hi-Load FAUs
49% 14% 2% 7% 19% 9%
Known Growth Projects
FPSO
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Actively bidding on 2017 / 2018 Offshore projects and on-the-water acquisitions to drive future distribution growth
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 Annual Capital Investment ($millions)
TOO Growth CAPEX - Committed vs. Illustrative Target
Cumulative Capital Investments (Known) Cumulative CAPEX Required for Illustrative Distribution Growth TOO Known Annual Asset Deliveries
83% of Capex to achieve illustrative growth already committed
Illustrative Distribution Growth 7.5% 5% 5%
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$80 billion market opportunity in our segments
$56 billion
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Offshore Unit Requirement Capex $ Billions Number of units FPSO FSO Shuttle FAU
Offshore Unit Demand 2015-2020
Source: Internal Estimates
$80B
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:
Current Core Markets Potential New Markets
Southeast Asia
Increase in development of smaller fields
West Africa
Increasing complexity of
East Coast Canada
Expanding Shuttle Region
Gulf of Mexico
Growing demand for offshore services
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Brazil a key region for new FPSO demand
increase during the next 5 years
FPSO demand
instead of oil company owned units 40 34 15 15 20
Brazil Africa
S.E. Asia Others
Historical & Forecast FPSO Contracting Planned FPSO Projects by Region
14 10 9 10 5 4 1 4 3 1 3
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
BW Offshore SBM MODEC Teekay / TOO Bumi Armada Bluewater
Leased FPSO Operators
Existing On Order 5 10 15 20 25
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Number of Contracts Source: Clarksons / Energy Maritime Associates Forecast Historical
14-16 contract awards per year
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FPSO Unit Centrica 2021 2020 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2022 2023 2024 Petrojarl Banff CNR TK Hummingbird Spirit Options TK Petrojarl Varg Talisman Options TOO Voyageur Spirit E.ON Options TOO Cidade de Rio das Ostras Petrobras Options TOO Cidade de Itajai (50%) Petrobras TOO Piranema Spirit Petrobras Options TOO Libra (Conversion) (50%) Petrobras TOO Petrojarl Knarr (Newbuilding) BG TK Owner Petrojarl I TK Evaluating opportunities for redeployment, or sale Petrojarl Foinaven TK BP Extension
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Remaining FPSOs targeted for dropdown to TOO by end-2016
FPSO Current Status Dropdown Trigger Petrojarl Knarr
installation
Teekay Parent Petrojarl Banff
Q1 2015 Hummingbird Spirit
contract run through March 2017
life extension analysis
based-on enhanced field life Foinaven
field to produce below
charterer’s approval to transfer
Petrojarl 1
contract (would require upgrade), or
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for offshore installation
October – will then commence mooring and riser installation (weather dependent)
October to late-November
charter to BG in December
* Distributable Cash Flow is a non-GAAP measure used by certain investors to measure the financial performance of Teekay Offshore and other master limited partnerships
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with Petrobras today
early-2017
partner, Odebrecht Oil and Gas
basis)
Shipyard in Singapore utilizing 1995-built TOO shuttle tanker, Navion Norvegia
Libra field considered to be the largest oil field in Brazil with 8-12B recoverable barrels
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Key Focus Areas Action Continue to strengthen the organization Reorganized into stand-alone regional teams in Aberdeen, Trondheim and Brazil and established a permanent, Asia-based FPSO execution team Increase access to engineering and project resources Resource sharing agreements with Sevan and Kanfa Enhance risk mitigation Implemented a more rigorous risk management process for tendering and execution of projects Improve start-up and field commissioning processes Installed and commissioned Banff successfully and transferred the same installation and commissioning team to Knarr Achieve full production capacity on all units Restored full production capacity on Banff, Voyageur and Foinaven
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Focused on core North Sea and Brazil markets
North Sea Brazil
regulated, harsh weather operational environment
North Sea
no turret required
size and complexity
Expect to bid on 3 projects in next 24 months Expect to bid on 4 projects in next 24 months
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Hi-Load
Innovative technology
Shuttle Tankers
Core of the franchise
FSOs
High-return conversions Quality and know-how
Long-haul Towage
Sevan technology
FAUs
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focus on profitability:
○ Operating costs reduced by approximately 20% compared to three years
ago:
− Implemented Filipino manning program, reducing crew costs
○ G&A reduced by approximately 20%
− Eliminated middle management layer
○ Increased average revenues per ship day
shuttle tankers
○ Applying core competencies in DP and offshore operations to FAUs, Long-
haul towage, Hi-Load units
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Includes a requirement for both DP shuttle tankers and Hi-Load units
new shuttle tanker demand to 2020
vessels 20+ years in the North Sea
vessels East Coast Canada
tanker opportunities anticipated in the next 5 years
34 25 5 2 3 2 3 2 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 TOO Knutsen Viken AET Lauritzen Tsakos
Shuttle Tankers
Existing On Order 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 North Sea CoA* North Sea TC East Coast Canada Brazil** TOTAL Number of Vessels
Source: Internal Estimates
Estimated New Shuttle Tanker Requirement to 2020
*Includes replacement demand **Includes Hi-Load units
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from offshore fields
○ Eliminates need for regional
transshipment
expected to be completed during Q4-14
○ Completed multiple loadings from an
export using Suezmax and VLCC tankers
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○ Receiving up to 1000 m3/day ○ 100 days of operation
○ Remote area ○ Challenging logistics ○ 180 days of operation
(Philippines – 2015)
○ Loading, storing, transportation ○ Signed LOI – final contract pending ○ Expected start up March 2015 for ~200 days
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FSOs
○ Harsh-weather North Sea units
$300 to $500 million
○ Asia-based units $50 to
$100 million
to increase in the next 5 years
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
S.E. Asia North Sea GoM MED Africa Brazil
Source: Energy Maritime Associates
Existing FSO markets for TOO 6 5 3 3 3 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
TOO Omni MODEC Trada Maritime MISC
Leased FSO Operators
Existing On Order / Future Conversion
Planned FSO Projects by Region
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2017 – 2020 Prospects
Gina Krog FSO Conversion
Commence conversion of 1995- built Randgrid shuttle tanker Commence 3-15 year contract with Statoil
Premier Oil – Sea Lion Field
+ potentially Hi-Load
Xcite – Bentley Field
Maersk – Culzean Field
2015 2016/2017
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Strong demand for modern DP units to meet growth and replace older units
8 12 12 11 10 10 11 11 11 12 2 3 4 8 9 9 11 12 4 4 5 5 6 7 10 12 13 14 2 3 3 4 4 10 20 30 40 50 60
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
FAU Supply / Demand Balance
Mexico Brazil North Sea RoW Supply Adjusted Supply*
*Adjusted to account for scrapping (30% of units aged 30+ years) & excluding low-spec units on order Source: Platou
24% 4% 12% 60%
Age Profile of FAU Fleet
0-4 years 5-9 years 25-29 years 30+ years 11 3 1 1 4 2 3 2 2 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Prosafe Floatel TOO Cotemar Gran Energia
Floating Accommodation
Existing On Order
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provides high stability and uptime
○ Superior to semi-sub units
fuel, etc.)
○ +2,000 m2 deck space
the customer:
○ Motion stability ○ Station keeping
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Short Term Response in Irregular Waves
Typical wave periods in normal operating conditions
More Stable Less Stable TOO FAU
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North Sea and UK Continental Shelf
months)
CoAs (higher field maintenance during summer)
Mexico
term contracts (3 – 10 years)
Brazil
assets (6 - 8x EBITDA)
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2015 2014 2016 - 2017 Rig #1
Complete construction and commence 3-year contract with Petrobras Non-conditional options for an additional 5 units Will consider exercising options based-on market conditions
Rig #2
Complete construction and tender for new contract
Rig #3
Complete construction and tender for new contract
2016 - 2017
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Design long-distance towing and anchor handling vessels delivering in 2016
○ Capable of operating at full load for 45 days without refuelling ○ Equipped with anchor handling capabilities required for mooring and
installation
decommissioning
10 20 30 40 50
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Forecast Installation Mobilisation Towage
Source: ABN Amro
Towage vessels required to 2020
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positions
fundamentals
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