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Tax Capacity, Fiscal Federalism and Development - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Tax Capacity, Fiscal Federalism and Development , ,


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SLIDE 1

Tax Capacity, Fiscal Federalism and Development

, , 1, 2015

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SLIDE 2

q ︎

  • OLS Coefficient: 5.72 (1.24)

10 20 30 40 50

Total taxes / GDP

7 8 9 10 11

Log GDP per Capita in 2005

  • A. Total Tax Revenue to GDP

Source: Kleven, Kreiner, Saez (2015)

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SLIDE 3

q ︎ 10%

40%”? ( 2013) ?

q

( 2014)

q

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SLIDE 4

.. , 1990

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SLIDE 5

q ︎ 10%

40%”?( 2013) ?

q

( 2014)

q

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SLIDE 6
  • 1.

2.

) )

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) : )

4. 5.

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SLIDE 7

1.

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  • ()

q

,

  • q
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SLIDE 8

.1 .2 .3 .4 .5 Share of taxes in GDP (1999) 6 7 8 9 10 11 Log GDP per capita in 2000 High income in 2000 Mid income in 2000 Low income in 2000 Fitted values

  • A. Country-level taxes and income

.1 .2 .3 .4 .5 5 year averages of share of taxes in GDP 6 7 8 9 10 11 5 year averages of log GDP per capita 1900-39 1940-49 1950-69 1970-99 Fitted values

  • B. Global-level taxes and income

.

  • /
  • /
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SLIDE 9

1.

  • 2. ()
  • ()

q

,

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SLIDE 10

.2 .4 .6 .8 Share of income taxes (1999) .2 .4 .6 Share of trade taxes (1999) High income in 2000 Mid income in 2000 Low income in 2000 Fitted values

  • A. Country-level income and trade taxes by GDP

.2 .4 .6 .8 5 year averages of share of income tax .2 .4 5 year averages of share of trade tax 1900-39 1940-49 1970-99 Fitted values

  • B. Global-level income and trade taxes by time period

.

(2012)

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SLIDE 11

1.

2.

()

  • ()

q

,

q

3.

( )

q ,

( ) .

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SLIDE 12

20 40 60 80 Top Statutory Income Tax Rate in 1990s .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 Share of Taxes in GDP (1999) High income in 2000 Mid income in 2000 Low income in 2000 Fitted values

  • (2012)
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SLIDE 13

1. 1990 2000

q

q . (

)

q q 2008

2.

5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ghana Kenya Nigeria Sub-Saharan Africa (developing only)

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SLIDE 14

q

q q (1927):

  • q

q / q

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SLIDE 15

3

,

  • Ø

:

Ø Ø /

Ø (1971):

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SLIDE 16

/

q

( ) ( 1972)

q

q q

’ , .

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/

q

? ( 1981)

Ø

»

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SLIDE 18
  • (2013)

– – .

Ø

  • Ø

Ø

:

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SLIDE 19
  • 1. -, :

[ – 2015]

  • 2. :

Ø () Ø (/ /)

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SLIDE 20

Ø : Ø :

,

Ø : - Ø :

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SLIDE 21

1. 2. 3.

.

  • .
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SLIDE 22

q

  • 1. -

– / () – (/) – ()

2.

– - /

3.

  • – ( )

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SLIDE 23

“ ” – ,

Source: Singhal (2014)

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SLIDE 24

,

  • Source: Singhal (2014)
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SLIDE 25

. . (2009, 2011)

Ø :

  • ,

Ø

  • Ø - ?

Ø , ?

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SLIDE 26
  • :

( : 50%)

Source: Kleven, Knudsen, Kreiner, Pedersen, Saez (2011) !

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SLIDE 27
  • : -

Brazil Germany Italy Japan Mexico United Kingdom United States DENMARK NORWAY SWEDEN .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .2 .4 .6 .8 Fraction self-employed

Source: Kleven (2014) !

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SLIDE 28

:

() : ? : ?

  • 1. , 2012 2014
  • 2. 2.
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SLIDE 29
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SLIDE 30
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SLIDE 31
  • 5.4%

, ’ , -

Ø ? Ø ?

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:

q 129 -

q : ,

, , , ., 500–1000.

q : ()

, , .

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:

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, 21 .

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42

Ø

3. .

Ø 111,

1300 .

Ø :

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SLIDE 34

– ( 2013) – - , -

.

  • : 1 , 40 , 2.7

!

– 22% ( ).

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SLIDE 35

. .

5 10 15 20

millions of consumers

2009m1 2010m1 2011m1 2012m1 Consumers with online accounts Consumers that ask for SSN receipts

a.

  • a. Number

Number of

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consumers asking asking for for SSN SSN receipts receipts and and nu numb mber er of

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consumers ers with ith online nline accounts ccounts

a: a: Timing Timing of

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lottery resu results lts -

  • Google

Google searches searches for for Nota Nota Fiscal Fiscal Paulista Paulista. .

1 1.05 1.1 1.15 1.2 Search volume relatively to the 1st day of the month 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 day of the month

Nota Fiscal Paulista Futebol (soccer)

Lottery results are released around the 15

th

  • f each month
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SLIDE 36

.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 2005m1 2005m11 2006m9 2007m7 2008m5 2009m3 2010m1 2010m11 2011m9 Retail Wholesale

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SLIDE 37

  • ( . 2014)
  • ://..///--
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SLIDE 38

:

Ø Ø , ,

, ,

:

Ø ( ) Ø

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SLIDE 39
  • (1971): ,

:

Ø ()

, ?

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  • ,

Ø -

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?

Ø : ----

(2014) :

Ø 60-70% Ø Ø

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SLIDE 41
  • 1. -

– () – ()

2.

– : () –

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Ø

, -

Ø :

  • : - [.. ]
  • : [, -

]

  • :
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SLIDE 43
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SLIDE 44

?

v v

( 1972)

v : ( ) (

, , )

v :

()

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:

v

– : – , ,

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SLIDE 46

: Ø — Ø — . 1. 2.

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.

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SLIDE 47

144

Table 6.1 Median Levels of Decentralization Measures by Geographic Region, 1995 (percentage) Decentralization Number of Sub-Saharan Latin Middle Eastern Former Western Measure Observations Africa East Asia South Asia America East Europe Soviet Union Europe Number of tiers 164 4 4 4 3 3.5 3 4 3 Percent elected 155 33.3 35.4 33.3 62.5 0.0 83.3 33.3 69.0 Subnational share

  • f public

expenditure 67 4.7 10.8 37.6 9.6 8.4 16.9 27.6 24.1 Subnational share

  • f total tax

revenue 53 4.0 6.5 N/A 6.7 6.3 7.3 24.2 13.4 Subnational share

  • f public

employment 90 23.1 41.0 50.0 20.8 35.8 26.4 35.4 48.4 Stipulated autonomy 133 6.9 11.8 20.0 23.5 0.0 8.3 15.4 33.0 Residual authority 133 3.8 5.9 20.0 22.2 0.0 16.7 7.7 23.8 Federal 164 4.8 5.2 28.6 14.8 5.3 9.1 7.1 23.8 Sources: Daniel Treisman, Defining and Measuring Decentralization: A Global Perspective (Los Angeles: University of California, 2002);

  • D. Elazar, Federal Systems of the World: A Handbook of Federal, Confederal and Autonomy Arrangements, 2nd ed. (London: Longman, 1994);
  • S. Saideman, D. Lanoue, M. Campenni, and S. Stanton, “Democratization, Political Institutions, and Ethnic Conflict: A Pooled Time-Series

Analysis, 1985–1998,” Comparative Political Studies 35 (1) (2002): 103–129.

07_Connerley_Ch6.qxd 4/19/10 3:21 PM Page 144

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1.

1990, - , ,

2.

– , ,

3.

4.

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SLIDE 49

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v – v –

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v

( 1959; 1972, 1999)

v v "" v v ()

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v ( )

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( 2015) – : .

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1. 2.

( 1999)

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1.

(, 2002)

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