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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods T urbocharging Monte Carlo pricing under rough volatility Mikko Pakkanen Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, UK Jim Gatherals 60th


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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Turbocharging Monte Carlo pricing under rough volatility

Mikko Pakkanen

Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, UK

Jim Gatheral’s 60th Birthday Conference Courant Institute, New York, 14 October 2017 Joint work with Ryan McCrickerd

Ω F P Imperial Network of Excellence in

Probabilistic

Methods and Modelling

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Volatility is (still) rough — 3rd anniversary!

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 −0.6 −0.2 0.2 t Wt Standard Brownian motion t log(RVt) 2008−01−01 2010−01−01 2012−01−01 2014−01−01 2016−01−01 2018−01−01 −12 −8 −6 Daily realised variance of CAC 40 index Source: Oxford−Man Realized Library ''Volatility is Rough'' posted on arXiv 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 −1.5 0.0 1.0 t Zt Fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index 0.15

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

The rough Bergomi model

The rough Bergomi model (Bayer, Friz, and Gatheral, 2016) is a non-Markovian extension of the variance curve model of Bergomi (2005).

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

The rough Bergomi model

The rough Bergomi model (Bayer, Friz, and Gatheral, 2016) is a non-Markovian extension of the variance curve model of Bergomi (2005). This model, under a pricing measure, is given by dSt St =

  • Vt

ρdWs +

  • 1 − ρ2dW⊥

s

  • =:Bs

,

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

The rough Bergomi model

The rough Bergomi model (Bayer, Friz, and Gatheral, 2016) is a non-Markovian extension of the variance curve model of Bergomi (2005). This model, under a pricing measure, is given by dSt St =

  • Vt

ρdWs +

  • 1 − ρ2dW⊥

s

  • =:Bs

, where W and W⊥ are independent Brownians and ρ ∈ [−1, 1].

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

The rough Bergomi model

The rough Bergomi model (Bayer, Friz, and Gatheral, 2016) is a non-Markovian extension of the variance curve model of Bergomi (2005). This model, under a pricing measure, is given by dSt St =

  • Vt

ρdWs +

  • 1 − ρ2dW⊥

s

  • =:Bs

, where W and W⊥ are independent Brownians and ρ ∈ [−1, 1]. The spot variance Vt is a product Vt = ξ0(t)E(ηWα)t of

  • the forward variance curve t → ξ0(t), known at time 0,
  • the Wick exponential E(ηWα)t = exp ηWα

t − 1 2Var[ηWα t ] of

a parameter η > 0 times a Gaussian random variable Wα

t .

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

The rough Bergomi model (cont.)

The random variable Wα

t follows the Gaussian Riemann–

Liouville process Wα

t =

√ 2α + 1 t (t − s)αdWs, t ≥ 0, where the parameter α ∈ (− 1

2, 0) controls the roughness of

paths.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

The rough Bergomi model (cont.)

The random variable Wα

t follows the Gaussian Riemann–

Liouville process Wα

t =

√ 2α + 1 t (t − s)αdWs, t ≥ 0, where the parameter α ∈ (− 1

2, 0) controls the roughness of

paths. The paths of Wα have Hölder regularity α + 1

2 and locally look

like the paths of a fractional Brownian motion with H = α + 1

2.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Example: rough Bergomi paths

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

t

3 2 1 1 2 3

W α

t

α = 0

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

t

3 2 1 1 2 3

W α

t

α = − 0. 43

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

t

0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2

St ρ = − 0. 9, α = − 0. 43

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

t

0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2

St ρ = 0, α = − 0. 43

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Intuition on the parameters

The rough Bergomi model has three time-homogeneous parameters, α, η, and ρ, with the following interpretations in terms of the implied volatility surface:

  • η — smile,
  • ρ — skew,
  • α — near-maturity explosion (of smile and skew).

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Example: rough Bergomi smiles

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3

k

0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

σBS(k, t) ρ = − 0. 9, α = − 0. 43

1D 1W 1M 3M 6M 1Y 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

k

0.20 0.22 0.24 0.26 0.28

σBS(k, t) ρ = 0, α = − 0. 43

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3

k

0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

σBS(k, t) ρ = − 0. 9, α = 0

0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

k

0.20 0.22 0.24 0.26 0.28

σBS(k, t) ρ = 0, α = 0

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Example: rough Bergomi smiles

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3

k

0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

σBS(k, t) ρ = − 0. 9, α = − 0. 43

1D 1W 1M 3M 6M 1Y 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

k

0.20 0.22 0.24 0.26 0.28

σBS(k, t) ρ = 0, α = − 0. 43

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

σBS(∆, t) ρ = − 0. 9, α = − 0. 43

1D 1W 1M 3M 6M 1Y 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

0.20 0.22 0.24 0.26 0.28

σBS(∆, t) ρ = 0, α = − 0. 43

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Pricing by Monte Carlo

The introduction of the rough Bergomi model has launched a quest for efficient pricing methods for the model.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Pricing by Monte Carlo

The introduction of the rough Bergomi model has launched a quest for efficient pricing methods for the model. The model is non-affine and non-Markovian so standard methods (PDEs, characteristic functions) seem inapplicable.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Pricing by Monte Carlo

The introduction of the rough Bergomi model has launched a quest for efficient pricing methods for the model. The model is non-affine and non-Markovian so standard methods (PDEs, characteristic functions) seem inapplicable. Currently, the only operational pricing method for mere vanilla options is Monte Carlo.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Pricing by Monte Carlo

The introduction of the rough Bergomi model has launched a quest for efficient pricing methods for the model. The model is non-affine and non-Markovian so standard methods (PDEs, characteristic functions) seem inapplicable. Currently, the only operational pricing method for mere vanilla options is Monte Carlo. Thus it is worthwhile to try to optimise, “turbocharge”, Monte Carlo pricing as much as possible.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Pricing by Monte Carlo

The introduction of the rough Bergomi model has launched a quest for efficient pricing methods for the model. The model is non-affine and non-Markovian so standard methods (PDEs, characteristic functions) seem inapplicable. Currently, the only operational pricing method for mere vanilla options is Monte Carlo. Thus it is worthwhile to try to optimise, “turbocharge”, Monte Carlo pricing as much as possible. In general, a good Monte Carlo pricer should have:

  • low bias, to avoid systematic error,
  • low variance, such that good accuracy can be achieved in

reasonable runtime.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Simulating the rough Bergomi model

The rough Bergomi model has a simple stochastic structure — all randomness comes from a bivariate Gaussian process (B, Wα), while S can be approximated by Riemann sums.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Simulating the rough Bergomi model

The rough Bergomi model has a simple stochastic structure — all randomness comes from a bivariate Gaussian process (B, Wα), while S can be approximated by Riemann sums. The covariance structure of (B, Wα) is not difficult to work out, so we could simulate exactly X := (B0, Wα

0), (B1/n, Wα 1/n), (B2/n, Wα 2/n), . . . , (B⌊nt⌋/n, Wα ⌊nt⌋/n)

by sampling from a 2⌊nt⌋-dimensional Gaussian distribution.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Simulating the rough Bergomi model

The rough Bergomi model has a simple stochastic structure — all randomness comes from a bivariate Gaussian process (B, Wα), while S can be approximated by Riemann sums. The covariance structure of (B, Wα) is not difficult to work out, so we could simulate exactly X := (B0, Wα

0), (B1/n, Wα 1/n), (B2/n, Wα 2/n), . . . , (B⌊nt⌋/n, Wα ⌊nt⌋/n)

by sampling from a 2⌊nt⌋-dimensional Gaussian distribution. The simulation is based on the Cholesky factorisation of the covariance matrix of X, which requires O(n3) flops.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Simulating the rough Bergomi model

The rough Bergomi model has a simple stochastic structure — all randomness comes from a bivariate Gaussian process (B, Wα), while S can be approximated by Riemann sums. The covariance structure of (B, Wα) is not difficult to work out, so we could simulate exactly X := (B0, Wα

0), (B1/n, Wα 1/n), (B2/n, Wα 2/n), . . . , (B⌊nt⌋/n, Wα ⌊nt⌋/n)

by sampling from a 2⌊nt⌋-dimensional Gaussian distribution. The simulation is based on the Cholesky factorisation of the covariance matrix of X, which requires O(n3) flops. The Cholesky factor needs to be computed only once, but subsequent realisations of X still take O(n2) flops.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Approximating the process Wα

Exact simulation being too expensive, we seek to approximate the process Wα.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Approximating the process Wα

Exact simulation being too expensive, we seek to approximate the process Wα. A naive approach would be to use forward Riemann sums Wα

i/n = i

  • k=1
  • i

n− k−1 n i n − k n

i

n−sαdWs ≈ i

  • k=1

k

n

α W i

n − k−1 n −W i n− k n

  • =:

Wα,n

i/n .

Since Wα,n

i/n is a discrete convolution,

Wα,n

0 ,

Wα,n

1/n, . . . ,

Wα,n

⌊nt⌋/n can

be generated (using FFT) in O(n log n) flops.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Approximating the process Wα

Exact simulation being too expensive, we seek to approximate the process Wα. A naive approach would be to use forward Riemann sums Wα

i/n = i

  • k=1
  • i

n− k−1 n i n − k n

i

n−sαdWs ≈ i

  • k=1

k

n

α W i

n − k−1 n −W i n− k n

  • =:

Wα,n

i/n .

Since Wα,n

i/n is a discrete convolution,

Wα,n

0 ,

Wα,n

1/n, . . . ,

Wα,n

⌊nt⌋/n can

be generated (using FFT) in O(n log n) flops. However:

  • Forward Riemann sums are inaccurate since the

integrand s → i

n − sα has a singularity.

  • This leads to biased estimates of implied volatility.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

The hybrid scheme

The hybrid scheme of Bennedsen, Lunde, and Pakkanen (2017) fixes the deficiencies of forward Riemann sums by using:

  • Wα,n

i/n := κ

  • k=1
  • i

n − k−1 n i n− k n

i

n − sαdWs

  • exact for κ slices

+

i

  • k=κ+1

bk

n

α W i

n − k−1 n − W i n− k n

  • Riemann sum for the rest

, where bk ∈ [k − 1, k] \ {0} can be chosen (MSE) optimally.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

The hybrid scheme

The hybrid scheme of Bennedsen, Lunde, and Pakkanen (2017) fixes the deficiencies of forward Riemann sums by using:

  • Wα,n

i/n := κ

  • k=1
  • i

n − k−1 n i n− k n

i

n − sαdWs

  • exact for κ slices

+

i

  • k=κ+1

bk

n

α W i

n − k−1 n − W i n− k n

  • Riemann sum for the rest

, where bk ∈ [k − 1, k] \ {0} can be chosen (MSE) optimally. Usually κ = 1 suffices.

13 / 29

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

The hybrid scheme

The hybrid scheme of Bennedsen, Lunde, and Pakkanen (2017) fixes the deficiencies of forward Riemann sums by using:

  • Wα,n

i/n := κ

  • k=1
  • i

n − k−1 n i n− k n

i

n − sαdWs

  • exact for κ slices

+

i

  • k=κ+1

bk

n

α W i

n − k−1 n − W i n− k n

  • Riemann sum for the rest

, where bk ∈ [k − 1, k] \ {0} can be chosen (MSE) optimally. Usually κ = 1 suffices. The variates Wα,n

0 ,

Wα,n

1/n, . . . ,

Wα,n

⌊nt⌋/n can be generated by

sampling ⌊nt⌋ iid draws from a κ + 1-dimensional Gaussian distribution and computing a discrete convolution.

13 / 29

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

The hybrid scheme

The hybrid scheme of Bennedsen, Lunde, and Pakkanen (2017) fixes the deficiencies of forward Riemann sums by using:

  • Wα,n

i/n := κ

  • k=1
  • i

n − k−1 n i n− k n

i

n − sαdWs

  • exact for κ slices

+

i

  • k=κ+1

bk

n

α W i

n − k−1 n − W i n− k n

  • Riemann sum for the rest

, where bk ∈ [k − 1, k] \ {0} can be chosen (MSE) optimally. Usually κ = 1 suffices. The variates Wα,n

0 ,

Wα,n

1/n, . . . ,

Wα,n

⌊nt⌋/n can be generated by

sampling ⌊nt⌋ iid draws from a κ + 1-dimensional Gaussian distribution and computing a discrete convolution. Again, this requires only O(n log n) flops.

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Approximating x → xα

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 2 4 6 8 10 x g(x)

  • g(x) = xα

n = 10 α = −0.4

  • true value

approximation 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 2 4 6 8 10 x g(x)

  • g(x) = xα

n = 10 κ = 2 α = −0.4

  • true value

approximation

Forward Riemann sums vs. the hybrid scheme

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Numerical results: implied volatility smiles

−0.4 −0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 k IV (k, T ) T = 0.041

exact κ = 0 κ = 1 κ = 2

−0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 k IV (k, T ) T = 1

exact κ = 0 κ = 1 κ = 2

Solid/patterned line: optimal bk Dashed line: bk = k. S0 ξ0(t) η α ρ n paths 1 0.2352 1.9 −0.43 −0.9 500 106

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Towards variance reduction

While the hybrid scheme simulates the variance process V efficiently, ceteris paribus it does essentially nothing to the variance of the Monte Carlo pricer.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Towards variance reduction

While the hybrid scheme simulates the variance process V efficiently, ceteris paribus it does essentially nothing to the variance of the Monte Carlo pricer. Indeed there is scope for improving the efficiency of the pricer by deploying a “cocktail” of variance reduction methods.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Towards variance reduction

While the hybrid scheme simulates the variance process V efficiently, ceteris paribus it does essentially nothing to the variance of the Monte Carlo pricer. Indeed there is scope for improving the efficiency of the pricer by deploying a “cocktail” of variance reduction methods. To this end, we work with price estimators of the form ˆ Pn(k, t) := 1 n

n

  • i=1

(Xi − ˆ αnYi) − ˆ αnE[Y], where (X1, Y1), . . . , (Xn, Yn) are identical copies of a random vector (X, Y) and ˆ αn is a free parameter, to be defined shortly.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Base estimator

Our reference estimator, which we call the Base estimator, uses X := f(St) :=      (St − S0ek)+, k ≥ 0, (S0ek − St)+, k < 0, Y := 0.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Base estimator

Our reference estimator, which we call the Base estimator, uses X := f(St) :=      (St − S0ek)+, k ≥ 0, (S0ek − St)+, k < 0, Y := 0. This is really just the “naive” estimator, except that we price the out-of-the-money European call/put, which is less noisy, and derive implied volatility from its price.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Base estimator

Our reference estimator, which we call the Base estimator, uses X := f(St) :=      (St − S0ek)+, k ≥ 0, (S0ek − St)+, k < 0, Y := 0. This is really just the “naive” estimator, except that we price the out-of-the-money European call/put, which is less noisy, and derive implied volatility from its price. Without loss of generality, assume S0 = 1.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Mixing formula

The well-known result of Romano and Touzi (1997) implies that E[f(St)] = E

  • BS
  • (1 − ρ2)

t Vsds, SW

t , k

  • ,

where BS is the appropriate Black–Scholes function, dSW

t /SW t = √Vt ρ dWt

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Mixing formula

The well-known result of Romano and Touzi (1997) implies that E[f(St)] = E

  • BS
  • (1 − ρ2)

t Vsds, SW

t , k

  • ,

where BS is the appropriate Black–Scholes function, dSW

t /SW t = √Vt ρ dWt

This suggests that we could use X := BS

  • (1 − ρ2)

t Vsds, SW

t , k

  • .

This method alone is rather effective in reducing variance when ρ ≈ 0, but its benefits evaporate as ρ → −1.

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Control variate

Inspired by the idea of Bergomi (2016) of using a timer option as a control variate, we choose Y := BS

  • ρ2

ˆ Qn − t Vsds

  • , SW

t , k

  • ,

where ˆ Qn is a free parameter, “variance budget”, to be chosen post simulation.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Control variate

Inspired by the idea of Bergomi (2016) of using a timer option as a control variate, we choose Y := BS

  • ρ2

ˆ Qn − t Vsds

  • , SW

t , k

  • ,

where ˆ Qn is a free parameter, “variance budget”, to be chosen post simulation. By a martingale argument, E[Y] = BS(ρ2 ˆ Qn, 1, k)

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Mixed estimator

Our “turbocharged” Mixed estimator (McCrickerd and Pakkanen, 2017) is given by X := BS

  • (1 − ρ2)

t Vsds, SW

t , k

  • ,

Y := BS

  • ρ2

ˆ Qn − t Vsds

  • , SW

t , k

  • .

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Mixed estimator

Our “turbocharged” Mixed estimator (McCrickerd and Pakkanen, 2017) is given by X := BS

  • (1 − ρ2)

t Vsds, SW

t , k

  • ,

Y := BS

  • ρ2

ˆ Qn − t Vsds

  • , SW

t , k

  • .

We set, post simulation, ˆ αn := − n

i=1(Xi − Xi)(Yi − Yi)

n

i=1(Yi − Yi)2

, ˆ Qn := max

i=1,...,n

t Vsds

  • i

.

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Mixed estimator

Our “turbocharged” Mixed estimator (McCrickerd and Pakkanen, 2017) is given by X := BS

  • (1 − ρ2)

t Vsds, SW

t , k

  • ,

Y := BS

  • ρ2

ˆ Qn − t Vsds

  • , SW

t , k

  • .

We set, post simulation, ˆ αn := − n

i=1(Xi − Xi)(Yi − Yi)

n

i=1(Yi − Yi)2

, ˆ Qn := max

i=1,...,n

t Vsds

  • i

. Additionally, we couple (X2i−1, Y2i−1) and (X2i, Y2i) for any i ≥ 1 by using antithetic pairs (B, W) and (−B, −W) as drivers.

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Numerical results: Base estimator

4 2 2 4 1 2 3

k = − 0. 18 σBS = 29. 6 B = − 0. 05 S = 1. 28

10 Delta Put

4 2 2 4

Base error : 100(ˆ σn

BS i − σBS). ρ = − 0. 9, n = 1000, τ = 114. 4ms, N = 1000, ψ 2 = 131. 4

k = 0. 00 σBS = 20. 6 B = 0. 01 S = 1. 24

ATM

4 2 2 4

k = 0. 10 σBS = 15. 8 B = − 0. 04 S = 0. 52

10 Delta Call

4 2 2 4 1 2 3

k = − 0. 15 σBS = 24. 2 B = − 0. 00 S = 0. 94

10 Delta Put

4 2 2 4

Base error : 100(ˆ σn

BS i − σBS). ρ = − 0. 0, n = 1000, τ = 114. 6ms, N = 1000, ψ 2 = 133. 6

k = 0. 00 σBS = 21. 7 B = − 0. 01 S = 1. 03

ATM

4 2 2 4

k = 0. 17 σBS = 24. 7 B = 0. 01 S = 1. 25

10 Delta Call

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Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Numerical results: Mixed estimator

4 2 2 4 1 2 3

k = − 0. 18 σBS = 29. 6 B = 0. 00 S = 0. 55

10 Delta Put

4 2 2 4

Mixed error : 100(ˆ σn

BS i − σBS). ρ = − 0. 9, n = 1000, τ = 70. 6ms, N = 1000, ψ 2 = 10. 4

k = 0. 00 σBS = 20. 6 B = 0. 03 S = 0. 27

ATM

4 2 2 4

k = 0. 10 σBS = 15. 8 B = − 0. 03 S = 0. 26

10 Delta Call

4 2 2 4 1 2 3

k = − 0. 15 σBS = 24. 2 B = 0. 04 S = 0. 26

10 Delta Put

4 2 2 4

Mixed error : 100(ˆ σn

BS i − σBS). ρ = − 0. 0, n = 1000, τ = 69. 8ms, N = 1000, ψ 2 = 3. 9

k = 0. 00 σBS = 21. 7 B = 0. 02 S = 0. 15

ATM

4 2 2 4

k = 0. 17 σBS = 24. 7 B = 0. 05 S = 0. 28

10 Delta Call

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slide-49
SLIDE 49

Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Calibration experiment

Ultimately, the goal of this simulation methodology is to calibrate the rough Bergomi model to a volatility surface.

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slide-50
SLIDE 50

Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Calibration experiment

Ultimately, the goal of this simulation methodology is to calibrate the rough Bergomi model to a volatility surface. We conduct a simple experiment to demonstrate what difference using the Mixed estimator in calibration makes.

24 / 29

slide-51
SLIDE 51

Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Calibration experiment

Ultimately, the goal of this simulation methodology is to calibrate the rough Bergomi model to a volatility surface. We conduct a simple experiment to demonstrate what difference using the Mixed estimator in calibration makes. We calibrate the parameters η and ρ to a 3M rough Bergomi reference smile at 19 points, minimising RMSE using L-BFGS-B.

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slide-52
SLIDE 52

Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Calibration experiment

Ultimately, the goal of this simulation methodology is to calibrate the rough Bergomi model to a volatility surface. We conduct a simple experiment to demonstrate what difference using the Mixed estimator in calibration makes. We calibrate the parameters η and ρ to a 3M rough Bergomi reference smile at 19 points, minimising RMSE using L-BFGS-B. We initialise the solver at the true parameter values and let it run for 700 milliseconds.

24 / 29

slide-53
SLIDE 53

Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Calibration experiment

Ultimately, the goal of this simulation methodology is to calibrate the rough Bergomi model to a volatility surface. We conduct a simple experiment to demonstrate what difference using the Mixed estimator in calibration makes. We calibrate the parameters η and ρ to a 3M rough Bergomi reference smile at 19 points, minimising RMSE using L-BFGS-B. We initialise the solver at the true parameter values and let it run for 700 milliseconds. Throughout the experiment, we use n = 1 000.

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slide-54
SLIDE 54

Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Numerical results: calibration experiment

1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2

ρ

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

η Base targeting ( − 0. 9, 1. 9)

0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

ρ

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

η Base targeting (0, 1. 9)

1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2

ρ

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

η Mixed targeting ( − 0. 9, 1. 9)

0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

ρ

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

η Mixed targeting (0, 1. 9)

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slide-55
SLIDE 55

Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Some alternative variance reduction methods

  • Multilevel Monte Carlo — compatible with the hybrid

scheme, but does not appear to effective in reducing variance in this setting (Mamallan, 2017).

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slide-56
SLIDE 56

Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Some alternative variance reduction methods

  • Multilevel Monte Carlo — compatible with the hybrid

scheme, but does not appear to effective in reducing variance in this setting (Mamallan, 2017).

  • Importance sampling — seems unattractive as it would

need to be tuned strike by strike.

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slide-57
SLIDE 57

Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Some alternative variance reduction methods

  • Multilevel Monte Carlo — compatible with the hybrid

scheme, but does not appear to effective in reducing variance in this setting (Mamallan, 2017).

  • Importance sampling — seems unattractive as it would

need to be tuned strike by strike.

  • Quasi Monte Carlo (Sobol sequences etc) — applicable

and useful here, albeit the speed-up appears not to be dramatic.

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SLIDE 58

Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

References

  • C. Bayer, P. K. Friz, and J. Gatheral (2016): Pricing under rough volatility.
  • Quant. Finance 16(6), 887–904.
  • M. Bennedsen, A. Lunde, and M. S. Pakkanen (2017): Hybrid scheme for

Brownian semistationary processes. Finance Stoch. 21(4) 931–965.

  • L. Bergomi (2005): Smile dynamics II, Risk October 2005, 67–73.
  • L. Bergomi (2016): Stochastic Volatility Modeling. CRC Press, Boca

Raton.

  • C. Mamallan (2017): Efficient implementation of the rBergomi model

with comparison to the Heston model. Unpublished MSci dissertation, Imperial College London.

  • R. McCrickerd and M. S. Pakkanen (2017): Turbocharging Monte Carlo

pricing for the rough Bergomi model. Preprint: http://arxiv.org/abs/1708.02563

  • M. Romano and N. Touzi (1997): Contingent claims and market

completeness in a stochastic volatility model. Math. Finance 7(4), 399–412.

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slide-59
SLIDE 59

Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Implementation

Python implementation of turbocharged pricing along with a Jupyter notebook are available from: https://github.com/ryanmccrickerd/roughbergomi

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SLIDE 60

Pricing under rough volatility Simulating rough volatility Variance reduction methods

Finally...

Happy birthday Jim!

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