Sparebanken Sør Boligkreditt AS
Investor Presentation March 2016
Sparebanken Sr Boligkreditt AS Investor Presentation March 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Sparebanken Sr Boligkreditt AS Investor Presentation March 2016 Executive summary The fifth largest savings bank in Norway with a strong market position in Southern Norway High capitalization; Capital ratio of 15.5 % - Core Tier 1
Sparebanken Sør Boligkreditt AS
Investor Presentation March 2016
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Executive summary
Sparebanken Sør
Sparebanken Sør Boligkreditt
Norwegian economy
stemming from the lower oil investments
rate remains well below the European levels
government pension fund, which accounts over 200% of the GDP, provides the government with substantial economic leeway
Southern region economy
slightly, at a similar pace than the national average
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Sparebanken Sør
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Financial key figures Sparebanken Sør Boligkreditt Contact details
Table of content
Norwegian economy
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Historical milestones
190 years of development and renewal
Arendal Sparebank was founded in 1825 as one of the first savings banks in Norway. 1973 The bank merged with 4
Aust-Agder, and formed Aust-Agder Sparebank. Sparebanken Sør was established in 1984 after a merger between Aust- Agder Sparebank, 2 other savings banks in Aust- Agder and 9 from Vest- Agder. 1985 The bank entered for the first time Telemark, through a merger with Nissedal Sparebank and totals today 7 branches in the county, where the latest was the opening of an
The bank´s history dates back to 1824 when Christianssand Sparebank was established as one
banks in Norway. The banks more recent history starts in 1984 when Sparebanken Agder was established through a merger between Christianssands Sparebank, Halse and Harkmark Sparebank, Iveland Sparebank, Oddernes Sparebank, Vennesla Sparebank and Øvrebø and Hægeland Sparebank. Four savings banks in Telemark and Sparebanken Agder joined forces in 1987. Through the merger the bank was named Sparebanken Agder and
name was changed to Sparebanken Pluss In January 1997 Sparebanken Pluss and Sparebanken NOR agreed that Sparebanken NOR was to take over Sparebanken Pluss’ branches in Telemark while Sparebanken Pluss was to take
in Kristiansand. Through this deal the banks business again was concentrated in the Agder counties. 2014 Merger between Sparebanken Pluss and Sparebanken Sør and the new bank is named Sparebanken Sør.
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Sparebanken Sør
Proven operational platform | Established customer base| Stable outlook
Note(*): based on the share price per 03.02.161 2 4 6 7 8 5 3
Sparebanken Sør is an independent financial group with a history dating back to 1824 The 5th largest Norwegian-owned bank with assets above NOK 100 billions in 2015 Geographical presence mainly in Aust-Agder, Vest-Agder and Telemark Some 450 employees in 36 locations in the Southern part of Norway. General banking services- and products, in addition to real-estate agency, life- and non-life insurance, security trade services and leasing through wholly- and partially owned subsidiaries and companies. Sparebanken Sør is an independent savings bank offering its products and services to the retail banking market, corporate market and to the public sector. 4,768,674 equity certificates listed on Oslo Stock Exchange with a market capitalization of NOK 711m * With a strong and powerful ambition, Sparebanken Sør is committed to create further growth and development in its region.
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Complete provider of financial services
Significant product range - still potential for increased product sales
Subsidiaries Vendors Affiliates
wholly owned subsidiary of Sparebanken Sør
a financial enterprise with the right to issue bonds where investors receive preferential coverage in home mortgages issued by the bank
Sør Group to offer mortgages with competitive terms to its customers
under the name Sørmegleren.
Sørmegleren Holding AS which is the parent to the real estate company Sørmegleren AS
as well as 9 branches in 9 other cities
thereby the regions largest real estate agent
Holding in 2008, and is one of 15 independent savings banks with stakes in the company
insurance, both life and non-life to corporates and private customers
10 independent savings banks, Sør owns 14%
through own banks, via dealers of capital and through its own sales organization
corporate finance - services, analysis, and stock and bond brokerage
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Company structure
Sparebanken Sør (parent bank) rated A1 Moody’s Sørmegleren (real estate broker)
Ownership 91 %
Sparebanken Sør Boligkreditt (covered bond company) rated Aaa Moody’s
Ownership 100 %
Frende (insurance)
Ownership 10 %
Brage (leasing)
Ownership 14 %
Norne (brokerage)
Ownership 18 %
Subsidiaries Affiliates
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A broad geographical footprint
Important operator in the south: Aust-Agder, Vest-Agder and Telemark
Local relationships and market proximity is essential for good savings bank operations Supporter of local business development
INDUSTRY
The market is totalling 450.000 people and about 9 percent of all business in Norway. Sparebanken Sør is the only bank covering this area.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE TRANSPORTATION TRAVEL HEALTH AGRICULTURE FINANCIAL SERVICES RETAIL PUBLIC SECTOR EDUCATION
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Sparebanken Sør
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Financial key figures Sparebanken Sør Boligkreditt Contact Details
Table of content
Norwegian economy
10 8,9 % 8,4 % 2014 2015 43,2 % 46,2 % 2014 2015 1.511 1.521 2014 2015
Financial key figures
Solid foundation, both financially and operationally
Note(*): 2014 is adjusted for gains from the sale of a stake in Nets with NOK 71m and recognition of negative goodwill of NOK 200m |Net interest income (NOKm) Cost ratio* Impairment ratio Net income (NOKm) * Total assets (NOKm) Net lending (NOKm) Return on equity* CET 1 ratio
0,33% 0,11% 2014 2015 94.062 101.334 2014 2015 80.913 88.387 2014 2015 13,1 % 12,7 % 2014 2015 0.7% 6.9%
1.6% 7.7% 9.2%
614 624 2014 2015
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Diversified loan portfolio(I)
High retail share and a broad geographic presence contribute to a balanced portfolio
Note(*): KNIF = Kristen-Norges interessefellesskap -> consists of more than 70 national organizationsLending by region Distribution of retail banking - SME/corporate banking
46 % 27 % 27 %
Vest-Agder Aust-Agder Telemark & Other
35 % 65 %
SME/Corporate (CM) Retail market (RM)
Gross loans Gross loans
growth outside the region
average LTV, even in a case of a 30% house price drop, lead to a low overall risk level
12 20% 13% 20% 30% 12% 5% < 40 % 41 - 50 % 51 - 60 % 61 - 70 % 71 - 75 % > 75 %
Diversified loan portfolio(II)
Detailed overview of the retail and commercial portfolio
Note(*): Other includes : construction of real estate(4%), wholesale and retail(4%), industry (3%), housing associations(3%), primary(2%), public sector(2%), transportation (2%), hotel and restaurants (1%) Note(**): 100% subsidiary= important funding instrumentSME/corporate loans grouped by industry Retail loans grouped by size (NOK m) Share of loans in the Retail portfolio Key points for SME/corporate LTV for Sparebanken Sør Boligkreditt Key points for Retail market
50% 12% 11% 7% 20%
Rental real estate Social services Property development Commercial services Other (Trade, Manufacturing etc.)44 % 56 % Sparebanken Sør Boligkreditt AS Sparebanken Sør 54% 25% 12% 4% 2% 2% < 1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 > 5
transferred to Sparebanken Sør Boligkreditt **
principal below NOK 2m
SBK has LTV below 75%
portfolio, even in “stormy weather”
quality in the SME-portfolio
based on local expertise and balanced risk appetite
significantly in the sector ”Social services”
Gross loans Gross loans Gross loans
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Diversified loan portfolio(III)
Low exposure to oil & offshore | stable exposure to real estate
Note(*): Industribyggerne 2015 - Rapport IRIS 2015/031 (direkte og indirekte sysselsatte knyttet til petroleumsindustrien) || Note(**): Swedbank Research, EAD Oil and Oil service, except ** - in % of total lendingNorway's largest oil regions * Exposure to oil and the oil industry**
Østfold Ytre Sogn Grenland Molde/Kristiansund Trondheims region Arendal- og Kr.sand region Vestfold (expanded) region Sunnmøre Sunnhordaland Bergens region Oslo/Akershus Stavanger region 0,1 % 0,9 % 1,1 % 1,9 % 3,1 % 4,9 % 7,0 % 8,9 % SØR* Sandnes Sparebank* Sparebanken Vest Sparebank 1 Nord Norge* Sparebanken More* Sparebank 1 SMN DNB Sparebank 1 SR
Overall real estate exposure in SME/corporate
17,5 % 3,7 % 1,4 % 0,9 % 23,5 % Overall real estate exposure Split Rental real estate Property development Construction Cooperative housing Gross loans
and Telemark
area, along with its customers that operate very effectively with high level of occupancy
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Credit risk(I)
Manageable risks across the portfolio
Note(*): Individual commitmentsLoans grouped by size* Deposits grouped by size SME/corporate portfolio grouped by risk Retail portfolio grouped by risk
51,3 % 18,5 % 30,2 % < 2m 2 - 8m > 8m 77,0 % 17,6 % 5,4 % < 10 mill 10 - 100 mill > 100 mill 94,5 % 4,2 % 1,3 % Low Medium High 69,6 % 19,9 % 10,5 % Low Medium High
Key points Risk categories
Category Lower bound Upper bound A 0,00 0,10 B 0,10 0,25 C 0,25 0,50 D 0,50 0,75 E 0,75 1,25 F 1,25 2,00 G 2,00 3,00 H 3,00 5,00 I 5,00 8,00 J 8,00 99,99 K 100NOK 8m
risk category
below NOK 100m (few large individual commitments)
is in the low or medium risk category
15 608 488 457 576 594 479 488 418
0,77% 0,61% 0,57% 0,71% 0,72% 0,57% 0,57% 0,48%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015 Gross loans in arrears > 90 days Arrears in % of loans
Credit risk(II)
Solid buffer in place –no surprises expected due to strong risk management
Note(*): Annualised|| Note(**): Consists of: ”arrear >31 – 60 days”, ”arrear > 61 – 90 days”,” arrear >90 days” and ”remaining doubtful loans”, || Note(***): Sparebank 1 Markets, ukerapport 11.01.2016Loan loss expenses Gross arrears > 90 days Loan loss provisions (collective and individual) Non-performing and doubtful loans** Key points
loans amounted to 1.5% of the gross loan portfolio for Q4-15
and individual, represented more than 50% of the total non-performing and doubtful loans in Q4-2015
through a solid loan loss provision level vs. similar banks in Norway Total provisions compared to other banks ***
0,82% 0,77% 0,72% 0,62% 0,57% 0,45% 0,45% 0,37% SOR DNB SVEG MORG NONG SB1HE SRBANK MING 1.500 1.271 1.944 1.651 1.634 1.457 1.434 1.320
1,90% 1,60% 2,42% 2,04% 1,98% 1,74% 1,68% 1,51%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015 Non-performing and doubtful loans As % of gross loans NOKm NOKm NOKm 669 637 806 714 681 692 694 722
44,6 % 46,0 % 50,1 % 39,7 % 41,5 % 44,8 % 48,0 % 52,4 %Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015
Total deposits Collective % of defaulted and doubtful loansNOKm % of loans 1 56 23 112 45 3 15 24 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015
Loss provisions Unexpected losses Reversals16 44,2 % 46,8 % 36,3 % 45,8 % 42,6 % 43,9 % 54,2 % 45,7 % Q1 ** Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015 1,64% 1,60% 1,58% 1,59% 1,57% 1,57% 1,55% 1,53% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015
Operational effectiveness
Low interest margin offset by good cost and loss rate
Note(*): Annualised (Figures from the income statement x4) || Note(**): Adjusted for gains from the sale of a stake in Nets with NOK 71m and recognition of negative goodwill of NOK 200mNet interest margin* Impairment ratio* Cost ratio
0,14% 0,14% 0,97% 0,09% 0,07% 0,09% 0,08% 0,22% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015
As a result of increased provisions for future losses after an extensive review of the bank's loan portfolio to CM
Net interest income / average assets Operating expenses before loss / net income Losses on loans and guarantees / average net loans to customers
in 2015
strengthening of loss provisions
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Capital requirements
Core capital of 12,7% in 2015 – expected core capital in 2016 of 14,5%
and the Financial Supervisory Authority will conclude on individual Pillar II requirements later in 2016
Supervisory Authority ("FSA"), there has been an expectation to bank on CET 1 at the end of 2016 of 14.5% (including Pillar II)
FSA, Sør will continue to strengthen profitability, making adjustments in the balance sheet and restricting growth in lending
issue of NOK 600m during H1-16
capital per 31.12.2015 from 12.7% to 13.7%
ensure that Sør will have CET1 of 14.5% at the end of 2016 Sparebanken Sør - Actual coverage, requirements and objectives Key points
7,0 % 11,0 % 11,5 % 12,7 % 14,5 % 1,5 % 1,5 % 0,8 % 1,5 % 2,0 % 2,0 % 1,9 % 2,0 %
Unweighted core capital ratio Requirements from the FSA 31.12.2015 (Pilar I) Requirements from the FSA 31.12.2016 (Pilar I) Capital ratio 31.12.2015 Expected capital requirements from the FSA 31.12.2016 (Pilar II)CET1 Additional tier 1 Additional Tier 2 Leverage ratio Requirements Today Expected
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Sparebanken Sør
II III IV V
Financial key figures Sparebanken Sør Boligkreditt Contact Details
Table of content
Norwegian economy
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Sparebanken Sør Boligkreditt
Executive summary
secures the refinancing risk
stable
downgrades
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Sparebanken Sør Boligkreditt
Breakdown of portfolio
29 % 36 % 35 %
Cov.bond Other retail SME/corporate
20% 13% 20% 30% 12% 5%
< 40 % 41 - 50 % 51 - 60 % 61 - 70 % 71 - 75 % > 75 % Sparebanken Sør total loan portfolio LTV breakdown of Sparebanken Sør Boligkreditt (cover pool) 55,3 % 59,7 % 67,2 % 76,8 % 16,8 % 14,5 % 10,3 % 2,9 %
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Status Q4 15 House price decline 10 % House price decline 20 % House price decline 30 % Weighted average LTV Nominal OC
Stress test of the cover pool
21 Category Type of Collateral 100 % residential Total loan balance NOK 25,673,390,250 Average loan balance NOK 1,017,614
25,229 WA seasoning (in months): 36 WA remaining term (in months): 206
22,752
24,755 WA Indexed LTV 55.30 % WA LTV 58.30 % Percentage of variable mortgages (S.Def.): 100.00 % Loans in arrears > 90 days (e.g. 1% or 0.01): 0.00 % Committed over collateralisation: 2.00 % Over Collateralisation: 16.76 % Total Cover Pool 25,673,390,250
The Cover Pool(I)
Cover pool composition
above 2.0 %
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0-≤40% >40%-≤50% >50%-≤60% >60%-≤70% >70%-≤80% >80%
well below the legislative maximum of 75 % for residential mortgages Indexed LTV distribution
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The Cover Pool(II)
Source: Moody’s deal-by-deal overview Q2 2015 and Sparebanken Sør Boligkreditt performance overview Sep 2015
Cover pool geographic split
Aust-Agder, as well as Oslo and Telemark to some extent
has been more modest than in the rest of the country
assigned a c-score of 5.0% (4.3% excluding systemic risk)
well with international peers
assigned a TPI of ’high’ and has ’Aaa’ rating with 5 notches of
rating downgrades
Vest-Agder (44%) Aust-Agder (29%) Telemark (8%) Oslo (9%)
Moody’s collateral scores
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% CA FR FI NL SE UK Sør NO IE PT BE IT DE AT DK ES
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Funding
Well diversified maturity profile giving great confidence during turmoil
covered bonds
affecting liquidity and price volatility in Norwegian bonds
profile and few expiring bonds in 2016 and 2017
corresponding with the average among similar Norwegian banks Key points Remaining maturity of outstanding wholesale funding
3.314 2.702 3.719 3.238 4.687 860 520 819 1.314 2.202 4.521 4.542 6.444 2.000 405 600 4.628 4.904 8.240 7.780 11.131 2.860 520 405 1.419 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 > 2024 Sparebanken Sør Sparebanken Sør Boligkreditt
11% 3% 1% 7% 27% 19% 20% 12% 1%
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Covered Bond programme
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Sparebanken Sør
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Financial key figures Sparebanken Sør Boligkreditt Contact Details
Table of content
Norwegian economy
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Key indicators for the Norwegian economy
Temporary slowdown in growth
Source: Estimates from Norges Bank’s December Monetary Policy report and Statistics Norway (Current account)In % 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E GDP growth, mainland 2.3 1.0 1.1 1.9 2.3 Core inflation 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.0 Unemployment rate registered 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.3 Key policy rate 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.7 Current account surplus / GDP 9.7 8.0 7.1 7.9 8.2 Sovereign wealth fund / GDP 204 224 N.A N.A N.A
economy
contained in the European context
government pension fund accounting over 200% of GDP
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Mainland growth
Weaker growth due to lower oil investments
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NOK, oil price and competitiveness
Weak NOK has reduced cost level significantly
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Mainland exports
Export sector benefits from weak NOK and is boosting growth
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Breakdown of Norwegian exports
Norwegian exports is more than oil
Source: Statistics NorwayFish 20 % Food 2 % Raw materials 4 % Chemicals 15 % Metals 19 % Machines 28 % Other 12 %
Export of traditional goods
Traditional goods 32 % Oil and Gas 39 % Services 29 %
Exports
REGION EU ex Nordic Asia North America Nordics South America Europe ex EU Oceania Africa SHARE OF GOODS EXPORT 30 % 20 % 16 % 14 % 6 % 5 % 3 % 3 %
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Public finances
Strong fiscal power to support the economy
to NOK 7,000bn (approx. EUR 737bn) which is more than twice the size of the Mainland GDP and equals to five annual national budgets
economic leeway
the national budget (expected real return on the fund)
be tapped. Thus the fiscal break even oil price is zero
be 0.7% of the Mainland GDP in 2016
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Western Norway is the oil region
Sparebanken Sør’s operating regions is less exposed to oil
Source: IRISIndirect employment Supply industry export Supply industry home market Employed onshore Employed offshore
Indirect employment Supply industry export Supply industry home market Employed onshore Employed offshoreDirect and indirect employment in the oil sector
Employed in oil sector in absolute numbers and % of employment
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Bank specific exposure to oil related industries
* Source: Industribyggerne 2015 – Rapport IRIS 2015/031 (direct and indirect employment petroleum) ** Source: Swedbank Research, EAD Oil and Oil service, except * - in % of total lendingSparebanken Sør has practically no exposure to oil or oil service industry
0,1 % 0,9 % 1,1 % 1,9 % 3,1 % 4,9 % 7,0 % 8,9 %
SØR* SADG* SVEG NONG* MORG* MING DNB SRBANK
Østfold Ytre Sogn Grenland Molde/Kristiansund Trondheims region Arendal- og Kr.sand region Vestfold region +,+ Sunnmøre Sunnhordaland Bergens region Oslo/Akershus Stavanger region
Norway’s largest petroleum regions* Banks exposure towards oil- and oil service**
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Unemployment
Only moderate increase in unemployment in Sparebanken Sør’s regions
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Household economy
Low interest rate burden and solid financial buffers
Estimates from Norges Bank’s December Monetary Policy report36
Norwegian housing market(I)
House prices have increased alongside income growth
City 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sum Oslo 1 % 8 % 10 % 10 % 5 % 1 % 10 % + 45 % Kr.sand 2 % 7 % 6 % 1 %
6 % + 19 % Stavanger 2 % 12 % 13 % 8 % 4 %
1 % + 38 % Norway 2 % 8 % 9 % 7 % 5 % 2 % 7 % + 40 %
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Norwegian housing market(II)
Key characteristics
Source: Finance Norway, Norwegian Labour and Welfare AdministrationHigh home
Key features of residential mortgage loans in Norway
institutions (97 % as of January 2015)
mortgage (e.g. tax records for the last three years, any debt collection outstanding, any bankruptcies)
allowed to increase the interest rate with a six weeks’ notice
Good tax incentives and supportive social security system
the dwelling is sold
income and is paid for up to 104 weeks
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Financial key figures for 2015 and expectations for 2016
Operational measures are implemented to ensure the bank's continued growth
Cost development (The bank) Return on equity Common equity (The group) Lending growth Dividend ratio 50% 50%
2015 2016
9,2 % 2,0 % 2,0 %
2015 2016
12,7 % 14,5 % 1,0 %
2015 2016 Equity emission added
8,4 % 9,0 %
2015 2016 Potential buffer / Effect of initiatives
46,2 % 42%
2015 2016 Satisfying level given the banks solid equity ratio 2015 was impacted by the spread widening in the liquidity portfolio
13.7% 4.0%
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Contact details
and website
Marianne Lofthus – Managing director/CEO Sparebanken Sør Boligkreditt AS Phone, direct line + 47 38 17 35 38 Phone, mobile + 47 90 51 41 83 E mail marianne.lofthus@sor.no Bjørn Erik Kittelsen – Head of Treasury, Sparebanken Sør Phone, mobile + 47 90 92 86 63 E mail bjorn.kittelsen@sor.no
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Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared solely for use at this presentation. By attending the meeting where this presentation is made, or by reading the presentation slides, you agree to be bound by the following limitations. This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of Sparebanken Sør Boligkreditt AS (the “Company”), in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. This presentation has been prepared solely for use in connection with the presentation of the Company. The information contained in this document is strictly confidential and is being provided to you solely for your information and cannot be distributed to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose. It may not be reproduced, redistributed, passed on or published, in whole or in part, to any other person for any purpose. Failure to comply with this and the following restrictions may constitute a violation of applicable securities laws. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein. None of the Company or any of their respective affiliates, advisors or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the presentation. This presentation is only for persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments and must not be acted or relied on by persons who are not Relevant Persons (as defined below). Solicitations resulting from this presentation will only be responded to if the person concerned is a Relevant Person. This presentation is not an offer of securities for sale in the United States. Neither the presentation nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into United States, its territories or possessions or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States, its territories or possessions, except to qualified institutional buyers as defined in Rule 144A under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) or outside the United States in reliance on Regulation S under the Securities Act. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of the United States securities laws.