Second Quarter 2015 August 5, 2015 Forward-Looking and Non-IFRS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Second Quarter 2015 August 5, 2015 Forward-Looking and Non-IFRS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Genworth MI Canada Inc. Second Quarter 2015 August 5, 2015 Forward-Looking and Non-IFRS Statements This presentation relating to Genworth MI Canada Inc. (the Company, Genworth Canada or MIC) includes certain forward-looking


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Second Quarter 2015

August 5, 2015

Genworth MI Canada Inc.

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Q2 2015 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 2

Forward-Looking and Non-IFRS Statements

This presentation relating to Genworth MI Canada Inc. (the “Company”, “Genworth Canada” or “MIC”) includes certain forward-looking

  • statements. These forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the Company’s future
  • perating and financial results, expectations regarding premiums written, losses on claims and investment income, the Canadian

housing market, and other statements that are not historical facts. These forward-looking statements may be identified by their use of words such as “may”, “would”, “could”, “will,” “intend”, “plan”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “seek”, “propose”, “estimate”, “expect”, and similar expressions. These statements are based on the Company’s current assumptions, including assumptions regarding economic, global, political, business, competitive, market and regulatory matters. These forward-looking statements are inherently subject to significant risks, uncertainties and changes in circumstances, many of which are beyond the control of the Company. The Company’s actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, including as a result of changes in the facts underlying the Company’s assumptions, and the other risks described in the Company’s Annual Information Form dated March 23, 2015, its Short Form Base Shelf Prospectus dated June 18, 2014, the Prospectus Supplements thereto, its most recently issued Management’s Discussion and Analysis and all documents incorporated by reference in such documents. Other than as required by applicable laws, the Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise. To supplement its financial statements, the Company uses select non-IFRS financial measures. Non-IFRS financial measures include net

  • perating income, interest and dividend income (net of investment expenses), operating earnings per common share (basic), operating

earnings per common share (diluted), shareholders’ equity excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (“AOCI”), operating return on equity and underwriting ratios such as loss ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio. The Company believes that these non- IFRS financial measures provide meaningful supplemental information regarding its performance and may be useful to investors because they allow for greater transparency with respect to key metrics used by management in its financial and operational decision

  • making. Non-IFRS measures do not have standardized meanings and are unlikely to be comparable to any similar measures presented

by other companies. These measures are defined in the Company’s glossary, which is posted on the Company’s website at http://investor.genworthmicanada.ca. A reconciliation from non-IFRS financial measures to the most readily comparable measures calculated in accordance with IFRS, where applicable can be found in the Company’s most recent management’s discussion and analysis, which is posted on the Company’s website and is also available at www.sedar.com.

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Q2 2015 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 3

$0.96 $1.03 $1.04 $0.99 2014 YTD 2015 YTD

$2.02

$34.17 $34.57 $35.02 $36.07 $36.18

Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015

Q2 2015 Financial Results

$MM except ROE, EPS and MCT Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2014 Q/Q Y/Y

Premiums written $205 $130 $161 +57% +28% Loss ratio 17% 22% 12%

  • 5 pts

+5 pts Net Operating Income $92 $97 $99

  • 5%
  • 7%

Operating ROE 12% 12% 13% flat

  • 1 pt

Operating EPS (diluted) $0.99 $1.03 $1.04

  • 4%
  • 5%

MCT1 231% 233% 231%

  • 2 pts

Flat

Book Value Per Share (diluted, including AOCI)

Highlights

  • Strong top line growth of +28% Y/Y
  • Loss ratio of 17%, 5 pt improvement Q/Q
  • Core operating income flat Q/Q excluding

favourable tax adjustment in Q1 2015

  • Consistent ROE performance
  • Strong capital position

Operating EPS (diluted)

1.Company estimate

$2.00 Q2 Q1

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Q2 2015 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 4 430 431 395 407 344 272 281 271 263 228 221 207 222 220 227 511 516 569 584 579 198 199 207 216 191 71 74 92 102 97 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 1,703 1,708 1,756 1,792 1,666

Outstanding Delinquencies

Stable Delinquency Trend

Ontario BC1 Alberta Quebec Atlantic

Highlights

  • Delinquencies down Q/Q due to typical

seasonality

  • 2% decline in Y/Y delinquency led by

Ontario and BC offset by modest increase in Quebec

Prairies

Delinquency Rates* Q4’14 Q1’15 Transactional 0.30% 0.31% Portfolio 0.09% 0.08% Total 0.22% 0.22%

* Delinquency rates are based on outstanding insured mortgages as at the end of the quarter and exclude delinquencies that have been incurred but not reported

1 BC includes the Territories

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Q2 2015 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 5

Region Average Home Price Average Income Average Gross Debt Servicing

Genworth Market % Variance Genworth Genworth Vancouver $420K $902K

  • 53%

$103K 27% Toronto $447K $617K

  • 28%

$105K 29% Calgary $422K $455K

  • 7%

$113K 26% Rest of Canada $281K $327K

  • 14%

$93K 23% Canada $313K $439K

  • 29%

$95K 24%

Note: Q2’15 data; Genworth average for purchase deals only, market average from CREA

GENWORTH PORTFOLIO REFLECTS FIRST-TIME HOMEBUYER PROFILE

Genworth’s Served Market

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Q2 2015 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 6

Highlights

  • Steady credit score improvement since 2009
  • Modest growth in home prices over last five

years

  • Gross debt ratios stable, strong preference

for 5 year fixed-rate mortgages

  • Financially disciplined first-time homebuyers

High Quality Insurance Portfolio

Average Credit Score Average Home Price Average Gross Debt Service Ratio

727 727 730 733 737 737 742 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 Q1'15 Q2'15 24 25 24 23 24 25 24 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 Q1'15 Q2'15 (%) Source: Company data based on new insurance written

STRONG PORTFOLIO QUALITY ... PROVEN RISK MANAGEMENT

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Q2 2015 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 7

Assessment Of Current Housing Risk

Metropolitan Area Risk Level 2015 NIW*

  • Avg. Credit

Score** Issues / Trends Vancouver 7% 745 Income gains, low interest rates and population growth supporting housing market, risk primarily in high-end segment Calgary 7% 741 Lower oil prices impacting housing demand, potential for modest price softening Toronto 17% 745 Housing risk remains slightly elevated, primarily in higher priced single family segment Montreal 8% 747 Gradually improving economic conditions supporting stable housing market, risk primarily related to condominium segment Halifax 1% 734 Improving economic conditions expected to support modest house price growth in 2H’15 & 2016 Stable Monitoring

* New Insurance Written ** YTD as at June 30,2015

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Q2 2015 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 8

Underwriting Performance Scorecard

2015 Objective 2015 YTD Observations

New Insurance Written Transactional Volume Moderate Growth 25% Realizing market share gains and a larger

  • rigination market while maintaining

strong portfolio quality Average Credit Score > 725 740 GDS < 26% 24.1% Losses on Claims Loss Ratio 20 to 30% 19% Reflects stable unemployment and house prices combined with proactive risk management Workout Penetration > 50% 57%

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Q2 2015 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 9

40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Portfolio<=2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1'15

Effective Loan-to-Value by Book Year 1 As At March 31, 2015

Portfolio

Q1'15

Portfolio Diversification

Transactional

BOOK YEAR AND GEOGRAPHIC DIVERSIFICATION MITIGATES REGIONAL PRESSURE

< 20% Equity > 20% Equity

20% 4% 44% 14% 5% 13%

Alberta Atlantic Ontario B.C. Prairies Quebec

Regional Dispersion 1 As At March 31, 2015

1: Based on Company’s estimate of outstanding balance of insured mortgages as at March 31, 2015 of $173B

O/S Insured Mortgage Balances1 -$B $63 $27 $12 $15 $16 $17 $20 $3

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Q2 2015 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 10

Solid Financial Performance

$MM except EPS and BVPS

Q2’15 Q1’15 Q2’14

Transactional premiums written $183 $104 $128 Portfolio premiums written 22 26 32 Premiums written $205 $130 $160 Premiums earned 144 143 141 Losses on claims (25) (31) (17) Expenses (29) (24) (27) Underwriting income $90 $87 $97 Investment income

(excl. realized gains / losses)

42 42 43 Net operating Income $92 $97 $99 Diluted operating EPS $0.99 $1.03 $1.04 Book value per share

(diluted, incl. AOCI)

$36.18 $36.07 $34.17

Highlights

  • Strong Y/Y top line primarily reflects

market penetration and 2014 premium rate increase

  • Loss ratio of 17% improved 5 pts Q/Q

due to seasonality

  • Consistent investment income
  • Core operating income flat Q/Q

excluding a non-recurring tax adjustment in Q1 2015

  • Book value per share up 6% Y/Y
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Q2 2015 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 11

Total Premiums Written $245 $335

71 104

128 183 2014 YTD 2015 YTD

Strong Premiums Written Growth

Incremental Premiums Written and Earned

2014 & 2015 Price Increases on $22 B of Transactional NIW Example ($ millions )

Transactional Premiums Written

($ millions) 45 100 130 130 2 15 40 65 2014 2015 2016 2017 Premiums Written Premiums Earned Q2 Q1

Highlights

  • Y/Y increase in transactional premiums

written reflects higher premium rates, market share gains, and a modestly larger

  • rigination market
  • June 1 price increase should drive

incremental premiums written of ~$25 to $30 million in 2015 and ~$55 to $60 million in 2016

PREMIUMS WRITTEN INCREASE PROVIDES TAILWIND FOR PREMIUMS EARNED

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Q2 2015 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 12

97 87 76 87 90 27 24 30 24 29 17 30 37 31 25 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15

Solid Underwriting Profitability

Underwriting Profitability

Underwriting profit Expenses Losses on claims Loss ratio

12% 21% 26% 22% 17%

Expense ratio

19% 17% 21% 17% 20%

Combined ratio

31% 38% 47% 39% 37%

New delinquencies net of cures

289 412 489 432 319 ($millions)

Highlights

  • YTD loss ratio of 19% compared to full

year loss ratio range of 20 to 30%

  • Favourable Q/Q loss performance driven

by lower new delinquencies net of cures reflecting seasonality

  • Expense ratio of 20% in line with target

Premiums earned $141 $140 $143 $143 $144

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Q2 2015 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 13 Cash 5% Federal 34% Provincial 17% Corporates 40% Common Equity 1% Preferred Equity 3%

Investments Contribute Steady Income

Total $5.7 billion

  • 1. Pre-tax equivalent book yield after dividend gross-up of general portfolio (as at June 30, 2015)

Portfolio Invested assets and cash (market value) $5.7 billion Pre-tax yield1 3.4% Duration 3.6 years

Highlights

  • Focus on high quality investments
  • Diversified portfolio with over 50%

government securities and cash

  • Reduced common shares in favour of

preferred shares

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Q2 2015 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 14 185% 185% 185% 185% 185% 46% 39% 40% 48% 46%

231% 224% 225% 233% 231%

Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15

Strong Capital Position

Minimum Capital Test Ratio (MCT)

Internal MCT target Buffer to internal target

Highlights

  • Completed $50 million share buyback in Q2’15
  • Holding company cash and liquid securities of

$105 million

  • Intend to operate moderately above the 220%

MCT holding target

FOCUSED ON BALANCING CAPITAL STRENGTH, FLEXIBILITY AND EFFICIENCY

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Q2 2015 Genworth MI Canada Inc. 15

Question and Answer

Philip Mayers

Chief Financial Officer 905.287.5393 philip.mayers@genworth.com investor@genworth.com www.genworth.ca

Contact: