SECOND PRE- ELECTION SURVEY DEFOE-SPIN DECEMBER 2017 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

DEFOE-SPIN SECOND PRE- ELECTION SURVEY

encuestadefoe-spin.com

DECEMBER 2017

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY DEC-2017

The Second Pre-Election Survey DEFOE-SPIN is a project of investigation based on the electoral campaigns of 2018 in Mexico, which pretends to be a methodological and analytical resource for all those who are interested in subjects related to public opinion, electoral behavior and political campaigns, including academics, analysts, journalists, and members of the media, in Mexico as in any part of the world. The Second Pre-Election Survey DEFOE-SPIN explores methodological appearances related with the process of data collection, the design of questionnaire phrasing, and the potential sources of error of the surveys in Mexico (of coverage, sampling, non-response, between others).

METHODOLOGY DEC-2017

• The study consisted of 1191 interviews nationwide.
• The sampling frame used in the sample design were the electoral

sections reported by the National Electoral Institute (INE).

• The selection of electoral sections was made in a systematic manner

with proportional probability to their size in each district, using the Nominal List as a measure.

• The selection of housing was made under a systematic jump of 3

houses whether or not there was an interview conducted.

METHODOLOGY DEC-2017

• The sampling model was stratified by districts in three areas of the

country with equitable sample allocation:

• The area or stratum 1 corresponds to the states of Aguascalientes,

Baja California, Baja California Sur, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Nayarit, Nuevo León, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, Sinaloa, Sonora, Tamaulipas and Zacatecas.

• The area or stratum 2 corresponds to the states of Campeche,

Chiapas, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatán.

• The area or stratum 3 corresponds to the states of Colima, Mexico

City, the State of Mexico, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Michoacán, Morelos, Puebla and Tlaxcala.

• The survey was applied to people over 18 years old with residence in

the area selected at the time of the interview. The interviews were applied personally, face to face, at the homes of the people selected within the sample. For this purpose, the survey was carried out by 112 pollsters and 27 supervisors.

• Assuming simple random sampling, the margin of error is +/- 2.83%

associated with a statistical confidence level of 95%.

• The survey was applied between the dates of December 15 and 18,

2017.

METHODOLOGY DEC-2017

PARTICIPANTS DEC-2017

• The sponsorship and design of the study of the First Pre-Election

Survey DEFOE-SPIN were carried out jointly by Defoe, Experts on Social Reporting, S.C. and SPIN-Taller de Comunicación Política, S.C.

• The application and generation of the survey database was executed

by Defoe, Experts on Social Reporting, S.C.

INDEX DEC-2017

PARTY IDENTIFICATION

• Party identification
• Party rejection

ELECTORAL PREFERENCE

• Presidential ballot
• Second best option
• Vote for alliances
• Federal deputy ballot
• Independent candidates
• Head-to-head matchups

INDEX DEC-2017

POSITIONING OF CHARACTERS

• Knowledge
• Opinion

EVALUATION OF AUTHORITIES

• Approval of institutions
• Presidential approval
• Presidential performance

INDEX DEC-2017

ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

• Country’s situation
• Country’s economic situation
• Personal economic situation

COMPARATIVES FIRST SURVEY (NOV-17) AND SECOND SURVEY (DEC-17)

PARTY IDENTIFICATION DEC-2017

23% 21% 17% 7% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 14% 6%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

PARTY IDENTIFICATION

PARTY IDENTIFICATION DEC-2017

Regardless of who you voted for, which political party do you sympathize with the most? (% sum of “much” and “less”)

DK/NA None

39% 12% 10% 9% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 9% 10%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

PARTY REJECTION

For which party would you NEVER vote for in a presidential election?

DK/NA None Otro

PARTY IDENTIFICATION DEC-2017

ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017

23% 22% 16% 11% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 4% 2% 10%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT

ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017

If today was the election for President of the Republic, which party would you vote for?

None Null vote DK

23% 18% 16% 14% 6% 3% 2% 2% 1% 2% 4% 2% 9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 24% 26% 7% 19% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 4% 2% 11%

PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT

PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL

If today was the election for President of the Republic, which party would you vote for? QUESTION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE QUESTIONNAIRE QUESTION IN THE MIDDLE OF THE QUESTIONNAIRE

None

Null vote

DK None

Null vote

DK

ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017

18% 15% 10% 8% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 5% 19% 10%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

SECOND BEST OPTION

PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL

If you were not to vote for the option you just chose, which would be your second best option?

None DK/NA

ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017

1st VS 2nd BEST OPTION

PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL

If you were not to vote for the option you just chose, which would be your second best option? President Ballot PAN PRI PRD Morena None Total

PAN

77 36 16 64 23 262

29% 14% 6% 24% 9% PRI

29 45 6 11 29 183

16% 25% 3% 6% 16% PRD

14 10 36 38 7 128

11% 8% 28% 30% 5%

42 4 23 69 46 250

17% 2% 9% 28% 18% Total

164 96 81 187 105

ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017

29% 21% 19% 7% 1% 12% 10%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

VOTE FOR ALLIANCES

PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL

Assuming that some parties will make alliances for the next election, if the presidential elections were held today, which party or alliance would you vote for?

Ninguno Otro DK/NA None Other

ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017

22% 19% 16% 12% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 2% 4% 3% 12%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

FEDERAL DEPUTY BALLOT

PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL

If the federal deputy elections were held today, which party would you vote for?

None DK Null vote

ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017

11% 5% 4% 4% 4% 1% 38% 34%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES

PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL

Who do you prefer as an independent candidate for the Presidency?

M Zavala P Ferriz MJ Patricio A Ríos J Rodríguez Other None DK/NA

ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017

27% 14% 13% 5% 1% 15% 25%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS, SCENARIO 1

PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL

If the presidential election was only between (…) Who would you vote for?

AMLO JA Meade R Anaya M Zavala None DK/NA Other

ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017

29% 16% 14% 3% 1% 12% 25%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS, SCENARIO 2

PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL

None DK/NA

If the presidential election was only between (…) Who would you vote for?

J Rodríguez AMLO JA Meade R Anaya Other

ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS, SCENARIO 3

PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL

If the presidential election was only between (…) Who would you vote for?

30% 15% 15% 4% 2% 1% 11% 22%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% AMLO R Anaya JA Meade M Zavala J Rodríguez None DK/NA Other

ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017

POSITIONING OF CHARACTERS DEC-2017

KNOWLEDGE ABOUT CHARACTERS (“SPONTANEOUS”)

POSITIONING OF CHARACTERS DEC-2017

Have you heard about (…)?

56% 26% 18% 16% 6% 3% 44% 74% 82% 84% 94% 97% AMLO R Anaya M Zavala JA Meade P Kumamoto J Rodríguez Sí No Yes

OPINION OF CHARACTERS

POSITIONING OF CHARACTERS

What is your opinion of (...) very good, good, bad or very bad?

POSITIONING OF CHARACTERS DEC-2017

62% 49% 37% 28% 22% 19% 7% 15% 14% 20% 29% 33% 5% 19% 30% 30% 22% 26% 26% 16% 19% 22% 27% 22% P Kumamoto AMLO JA Meade R Anaya M Zavala J Rodríguez Muy buena/buena Regular Mala/muy mala NS/NC Bad/very bad Very good/good

EVALUATION OF AUTHORITIES DEC-2017

46% 43% 37% 36% 35% 30% 30% 28% 27% 27% 26% 26% 28% 28% 30% 29% 28% 30% 27% 23% 25% 28% 29% 33% 32% 38% 39% 39% 43% 49% 3% 3% 6% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% La Marina El Ejército La Gendarmería Nacional Mexicana La Policía Federal El Gobernador de su estado (Jefe de gobierno) El presidente municipal (Delegado) Los Diputados Federales Los Diputados Locales Los Senadores El Presidente de la República Enrique Peña Nieto

Aprueba mucho/Aprueba algo Ni aprueba ni desaprueba Desaprueba algo/Desaprueba mucho No sabe/no contestó

Navy Army Gendarmería Nacional Mexicana Federal Police Governor of your state (Head of Government) Mayor (Delegate) Federal Deputies Local Deputies Senators President Enrique Peña Nieto

Strongly approve/somewhat approve Strongly disapprove/somewhat disapprove

APPROVAL OF INSTITUTIONS

EVALUATION OF AUTHORITIES DEC-2017

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way (…) is handling their job? Neither approve nor disapprove DK/NA

27% 23% 49% 2%

Aprueba mucho/aprueba algo Ni aprueba ni desaprueba Desaprueba mucho/desaprueba algo No sabe/No contestó

PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way President Enrique Peña Nieto is handling his job?

EVALUATION OF AUTHORITIES

Strongly approve/somewhat approve Strongly disapprove/somewhat disapprove Neither approve nor disapprove DK/NA

EVALUATION OF AUTHORITIES DEC-2017

PRESIDENTIAL PERFORMANCE

EVALUACIÓN DE LAS AUTORIDADES

How would you rate the performance of President Enrique Peña Nieto in the following aspects?

23% 23% 23% 22% 22% 21% 21% 21% 20% 19% 19% 18% 17% 16% 16% 16% 25% 29% 29% 26% 25% 25% 23% 26% 27% 23% 20% 21% 23% 22% 19% 21% 49% 44% 45% 49% 51% 52% 53% 48% 50% 56% 59% 59% 55% 59% 61% 60% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 5% 3% 2% 3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 3%

Apoyo a damnificados por desastres naturales Promoción del turismo Apoyo a las mujeres Mejora de caminos y vialidades Educación Servicios de salud Mejora de vivienda Apoyo al campo Apoyo a los jóvenes Generación de empleos Combate a la corrupción Combate a la pobreza Transparencia Manejo de la economía Combate al narcotráfico Combate a la delincuencia

Muy bien/Bien Regular Muy mal/mal No sabe/No contestó

Support for natural disaster victims Tourism promotion Support for women Improvement of roads and highways Education Health Services Housing improvement Support to the countryside Support for the young people Job creation Fight against corruption Fight against poverty Transparency Handling of the economy Fight against drug trafficking Fight against crime Very good/good Very bad/bad DK/NA

EVALUATION OF AUTHORITIES DEC-2017

ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE DEC-2017

COUNTRY’S SITUATION

ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE DEC-2017

Considering the country’s economic performance, do you think Mexico is headed on the right path or the wrong path?

13% 70% 17%

Camino correcto Camino equivocado NS/NC Right path Wrong path DK/NA

COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC SITUATION

13% 19% 36% 35% 45% 40% 6% 7% Retrospective Prospective

Much better/better As good as/as bad as Much worse/worse DK/NA

ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

Considering Mexico’s economic situation now/next year, would you say the economy is much better, better, the same, worse, much worse than it was a year ago/currently?

ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE DEC-2017

PERSONAL ECONOMIC SITUATION

Considering your economic situation now/next year, would you say it is much better, better, the same, worse, much worse than it was a year ago/currently?

ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE DEC-2017

26% 19% 30% 31% 36% 40% 7% 10% Prospectiva Retrospectiva

Mucho mejor/mejor Igual de bien/Igual de mal Mucho peor/peor NS/NC

Retrospective Prospective

Much better/better As good as/as bad as

Much worse/worse

DK/NA

COMPARATIVES FIRST SURVEY (NOV-17) AND SECOND SURVEY (DEC-17)

25% 20% 15% 10% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 6% 2% 7% 16% 22% 23% 11% 2% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% 4% 2% 10%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT

COMPARATIVES FIRST SURVEY (NOV-17) AND SECOND SURVEY (DEC-17)

DK None Null vote

First column (Nov-2017) Second column (Dec-2017)

If today was the election for President of the Republic, which party would you vote for?

12% 12% 21% 8% 8% 6% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 16% 8% 10% 15% 18% 8% 5% 4% 2% 5% 3% 1% 0% 19% 10%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

SECOND BEST OPTION

COMPARATIVO

DK/NA Other None

If you were not to vote for the option you just chose, which would be your second best

• ption?

COMPARATIVO

COMPARATIVES FIRST SURVEY (NOV-17) AND SECOND SURVEY (DEC-17)

First column (Nov-2017) Second column (Dec-2017)

27% 26% 22% 4% 1% 14% 7% 29% 19% 21% 7% 1% 12% 10% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Assuming that some parties will make alliances for the next election, if the presidential elections were held today, which party or alliance would you vote for?

VOTE FOR ALLIANCES

DK/NA Other None

COMPARATIVES FIRST SURVEY (NOV-17) AND SECOND SURVEY (DEC-17)

First column (Nov-2017) Second column (Dec-2017)

24% 20% 16% 7% 0% 15% 17% 27% 14% 13% 5% 1% 15% 25%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS, SCENARIO 1

DK/NA Other None

If the presidential election was only between (…) Who would you vote for?

M Zavala AMLO JA Meade R Anaya

COMPARATIVES FIRST SURVEY (NOV-17) AND SECOND SURVEY (DEC-17)

First column (Nov-2017) Second column (Dec-2017)

13% 7% 6% 5% 5% 1% 34% 29% 11% 5% 4% 4% 4% 1% 38% 34%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES

DK/NA Other None

Who do you prefer as an independent candidate to be the President of the Republic?

M Zavala P Ferriz MJ Patricio A Ríos J Rodríguez

COMPARATIVES FIRST SURVEY (NOV-17) AND SECOND SURVEY (DEC-17)

First column (Nov-2017) Second column (Dec-2017)

29% 17% 51% 3% 27% 23% 49% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Aprueba mucho/Aprueba algo Ni aprueba ni desaprueba Desaprueba algo/Desaprueba mucho No sabe/no contestó

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way President Enrique Peña Nieto is handling his job?

PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL

COMPARATIVO

COMPARATIVES FIRST SURVEY (NOV-17) AND SECOND SURVEY (DEC-17)

First column (Nov-2017) Second column (Dec-2017)

Neither approve nor disapprove Strongly disapprove/ somewhat disapprove

DK/NA

Strongly approve/ Somewhat approve