SECOND PRE- ELECTION SURVEY DEFOE-SPIN DECEMBER 2017 encuestadefoe-spin.com
PURPOSE OF THE STUDY DEC-2017 The Second Pre-Election Survey DEFOE-SPIN is a project of investigation based on the electoral campaigns of 2018 in Mexico, which pretends to be a methodological and analytical resource for all those who are interested in subjects related to public opinion, electoral behavior and political campaigns, including academics, analysts, journalists, and members of the media, in Mexico as in any part of the world. The Second Pre-Election Survey DEFOE-SPIN explores methodological appearances related with the process of data collection, the design of questionnaire phrasing, and the potential sources of error of the surveys in Mexico (of coverage, sampling, non-response, between others).
METHODOLOGY DEC-2017 • The study consisted of 1191 interviews nationwide. • The sampling frame used in the sample design were the electoral sections reported by the National Electoral Institute (INE). • The selection of electoral sections was made in a systematic manner with proportional probability to their size in each district, using the Nominal List as a measure. The selection of housing was made under a systematic jump of 3 • houses whether or not there was an interview conducted.
METHODOLOGY DEC-2017 The sampling model was stratified by districts in three areas of the • country with equitable sample allocation: • The area or stratum 1 corresponds to the states of Aguascalientes, Baja California, Baja California Sur, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Nayarit, Nuevo León, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, Sinaloa, Sonora, Tamaulipas and Zacatecas. • The area or stratum 2 corresponds to the states of Campeche, Chiapas, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatán. • The area or stratum 3 corresponds to the states of Colima, Mexico City, the State of Mexico, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Michoacán, Morelos, Puebla and Tlaxcala.
METHODOLOGY DEC-2017 • The survey was applied to people over 18 years old with residence in the area selected at the time of the interview. The interviews were applied personally, face to face, at the homes of the people selected within the sample. For this purpose, the survey was carried out by 112 pollsters and 27 supervisors. Assuming simple random sampling, the margin of error is +/- 2.83% • associated with a statistical confidence level of 95%. The survey was applied between the dates of December 15 and 18, • 2017.
PARTICIPANTS DEC-2017 The sponsorship and design of the study of the First Pre-Election • Survey DEFOE-SPIN were carried out jointly by Defoe, Experts on Social Reporting, S.C. and SPIN-Taller de Comunicación Política, S.C. • The application and generation of the survey database was executed by Defoe, Experts on Social Reporting, S.C.
INDEX DEC-2017 PARTY IDENTIFICATION o Party identification o Party rejection ELECTORAL PREFERENCE o Presidential ballot o Second best option o Vote for alliances o Federal deputy ballot o Independent candidates o Head-to-head matchups
INDEX DEC-2017 POSITIONING OF CHARACTERS o Knowledge o Opinion EVALUATION OF AUTHORITIES o Approval of institutions o Presidential approval o Presidential performance
INDEX DEC-2017 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE o Country’s situation o Country’s economic situation o Personal economic situation COMPARATIVES FIRST SURVEY (NOV-17) AND SECOND SURVEY (DEC-17)
PARTY IDENTIFICATION DEC-2017
PARTY IDENTIFICATION DEC-2017 PARTY IDENTIFICATION Regardless of who you voted for, which political party do you sympathize with the most? (% sum of “much” and “less”) 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 23% 20% 21% None 17% 15% 14% 10% DK/NA 7% 5% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0%
PARTY IDENTIFICATION DEC-2017 PARTY REJECTION For which party would you NEVER vote for in a presidential election? 45% 40% 39% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% DK/NA 12% None 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 5% Otro 2% 2% 1% 1% 3% 3% 0%
ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017
ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017 PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT If today was the election for President of the Republic, which party would you vote for? 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 23% 22% 15% 16% DK 10% 11% 10% None Null vote 5% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 4% 4% 3% 0%
ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017 PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT If today was the election for President of the Republic, which party would you vote for? 45% QUESTION AT THE QUESTION IN THE 40% BEGINNING OF THE MIDDLE OF THE 35% QUESTIONNAIRE QUESTIONNAIRE 30% 26% 24% 25% 23% 19% 20% 18% 16% 14% 15% DK DK 11% 9% 10% 7% None None 6% 4% 4% Null vote 5% Null vote 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%
ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017 PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL SECOND BEST OPTION If you were not to vote for the option you just chose, which would be your second best option? 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% None 19% 18% 15% 15% DK/NA 10% 10% 10% 8% 5% 2% 1% 5% 5% 4% 3% 0%
ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017 PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL 1st VS 2nd BEST OPTION If you were not to vote for the option you just chose, which would be your second best option? President PAN PRI PRD Morena None Total Ballot 77 36 16 64 23 262 PAN 29% 14% 6% 24% 9% 29 45 6 11 29 183 PRI 16% 25% 3% 6% 16% 14 10 36 38 7 128 PRD 11% 8% 28% 30% 5% 42 4 23 69 46 250 17% 2% 9% 28% 18% Total 164 96 81 187 105
ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017 PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL VOTE FOR ALLIANCES Assuming that some parties will make alliances for the next election, if the presidential elections were held today, which party or alliance would you vote for? 45% 40% 35% 30% 29% 25% 20% 21% 19% 15% None DK/NA 12% 10% 10% Ninguno 7% 5% Other Otro 1% 0%
ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017 PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL FEDERAL DEPUTY BALLOT If the federal deputy elections were held today, which party would you vote for? 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 22% 20% 19% 15% DK 16% 12% 12% 10% None 5% Null vote 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 4% 3% 3% 0%
ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017 PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES Who do you prefer as an independent candidate for the Presidency? 45% 40% None 38% DK/NA 35% 34% 30% 25% 20% 15% M Zavala 10% 11% P Ferriz MJ Patricio A Ríos J Rodríguez Other 5% 5% 1% 4% 4% 4% 0%
ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017 PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS, SCENARIO 1 If the presidential election was only between ( … ) Who would you vote for? 45% 40% 35% 30% AMLO DK/NA 27% 25% 25% 20% None JA Meade 15% R Anaya 15% 14% 13% 10% M Zavala 5% 5% Other 1% 0%
ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017 PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS, SCENARIO 2 If the presidential election was only between ( … ) Who would you vote for? 45% 40% 35% AMLO 30% 29% DK/NA 25% 25% 20% R Anaya JA Meade 15% 16% None 14% 12% 10% 5% Other J Rodríguez 3% 1% 0%
ELECTORAL PREFERENCE DEC-2017 PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS, SCENARIO 3 If the presidential election was only between ( … ) Who would you vote for? 45% 40% 35% AMLO 30% 30% 25% DK/NA 22% 20% R Anaya JA Meade 15% 15% 15% None 10% 11% M Zavala J Rodríguez 5% Other 2% 4% 1% 0%
POSITIONING OF CHARACTERS DEC-2017
POSITIONING OF CHARACTERS DEC-2017 KNOWLEDGE ABOUT CHARACTERS (“SPONTANEOUS”) Have you heard about ( … )? AMLO 56% 44% R Anaya 26% 74% M Zavala 18% 82% JA Meade 16% 84% P Kumamoto 6% 94% J Rodríguez 3% 97% Yes Sí No
POSITIONING OF CHARACTERS POSITIONING OF CHARACTERS DEC-2017 OPINION OF CHARACTERS What is your opinion of (...) very good, good, bad or very bad? P Kumamoto 62% 7% 5% 26% AMLO 49% 15% 19% 16% JA Meade 37% 14% 30% 19% R Anaya 28% 20% 30% 22% M Zavala 22% 29% 22% 27% J Rodríguez 19% 33% 26% 22% Very good/good Muy buena/buena Regular Mala/muy mala NS/NC Bad/very bad
EVALUATION OF AUTHORITIES DEC-2017
EVALUATION OF AUTHORITIES DEC-2017 APPROVAL OF INSTITUTIONS In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way ( … ) is handling their job? La Marina 46% 26% 25% 3% Navy El Ejército 43% 26% 28% 3% Army La Gendarmería Nacional Mexicana 37% 28% 29% 6% Gendarmería Nacional Mexicana La Policía Federal 36% 28% 33% 3% Federal Police El Gobernador de su estado (Jefe de gobierno) 35% 30% 32% 3% Governor of your state (Head of Government) El presidente municipal (Delegado) 30% 29% 38% 3% Mayor (Delegate) Los Diputados Federales 30% 28% 39% 3% Federal Deputies Los Diputados Locales 28% 30% 39% 3% Local Deputies Los Senadores 27% 27% 43% 3% Senators El Presidente de la República Enrique Peña Nieto 27% 23% 49% 2% President Enrique Peña Nieto Aprueba mucho/Aprueba algo Ni aprueba ni desaprueba Strongly approve/somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Desaprueba algo/Desaprueba mucho Strongly disapprove/somewhat disapprove No sabe/no contestó DK/NA
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