SALESFORCE BRIEFING
BUILDING ON A STRONG PLATFORM
MARCH 2016
SALESFORCE BRIEFING BUILDING ON A STRONG PLATFORM MARCH 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
SALESFORCE BRIEFING BUILDING ON A STRONG PLATFORM MARCH 2016 DISCLAIMER For the purposes of the following disclaimers, references to this document shall mean higher cost for future service and growing deficit in relation to past service
MARCH 2016
For the purposes of the following disclaimers, references to this “document” shall mean this presentation pack and shall be deemed to include references to the related speeches made by or to be made by the presenters, any questions and answers in relation thereto and any other related verbal or written communications. This document contains certain “forward-looking statements” with respect to Pennon Group’s financial condition, results of operations and business and certain of Pennon Group's plans and objectives with respect to these matters. Forward-looking statements are sometimes, but not always, identified by their use of a date in the future or such words as “anticipate”, “aim”, “believe”, “continue”, “could”, “due”, "estimate“, “expect”, “forecast”, “goal”, “intend”, "may", “plan", “project”, “seek”, “should”, “target”, “will” and related and similar expressions, as well as statements in the future tense. By their very nature forward-looking statements are inherently unpredictable, speculative and involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will or will not occur in the future. Various known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to substantial differences between the actual future results, financial situation development
reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements which are made only as of the date of this document. Important risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results, performance or achievements of Pennon Group to differ materially from any outcomes or results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements are changes in law, regulation or decisions by governmental bodies or regulators; non- recovery of customer debt; poor operating performance due to extreme weather and climate change; poor service provided to customers; global economic downturn pressuring volumes and margins; downward pressure on UK wholesale power prices; business interruption or significant operational failures/ incidents; non-compliance or
projects and/or Joint Ventures not achieving predicted revenues or performance; exposure to contractor failure to deliver construction progress, increasing costs and potentially requiring lengthy legal action or other redress; reduced customer base, increased competition affecting prices or reduced demand for services; information technology systems requiring replacement, development or upgrading to meet growing requirements of the business; an inability to raise sufficient funds to finance its activities
computations where liabilities remain to be agreed and pension costs increasing due to higher cost for future service and growing deficit in relation to past service in the Defined Benefit Schemes. Forward looking statements should therefore be construed in light of such risks, uncertainties and other factors and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Nothing in this document should be construed as a profit forecast. All written or verbal forward-looking statements, made in this document or made subsequently, which are attributable to Pennon Group or any other member of the Pennon Group or persons acting on their behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the factors referred to above. Pennon Group may or may not update these forward- looking statements. This document is not an offer to sell, exchange or transfer any securities of Pennon Group or any of its subsidiaries and is not soliciting an offer to purchase, exchange or transfer such securities in any jurisdiction. Without prejudice to the above, whilst Pennon Group accepts liability to the extent required by the Listing Rules, the Disclosure Rules and the Transparency Rules of the UK Listing Authority for any information contained within this document which the Company makes publicly available as required by such Rules: a) neither Pennon Group nor any other member of Pennon Group or persons acting on their behalf shall otherwise have any liability whatsoever for loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from use of the information contained within this document; b) neither Pennon Group nor any other member of Pennon Group or persons acting on their behalf makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained within this document; and c) no reliance may be placed upon the information contained within this document to the extent that such information is subsequently updated by or on behalf of Pennon Group. Past performance of securities of Pennon Group cannot be relied upon as a guide to the future performance of any securities of Pennon Group.
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Varied contract lengths Managed commodity exposure Long-term contracted
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£BN
Water RCV (1) Viridor Asset Base (2) (1)
EFFICIENT, EFFECTIVE ASSET BASE
Water Wholesale and HH Retail
(1) South West Water RCV, plus Bournemouth Water RCV from 2015-16 onwards (2) Includes NBV of PPE assets, JV Shareholder Loans and IFRIC 12 Financial Assets (3) Revenue based on H1 2015-16, adjusted to include share of JV revenue and excluding landfill tax, IFRIC 12 construction revenue and revenue subject to natural offset within the Group (i.e. power and recyclate purchase costs) (4) Non-Regulated and Non-Household Retail Revenue (excluding wholesale charges)
Water Wholesale and HH Retail 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 Water 47% 2 ERF - lt 12% 3 Other contracts - lt 9% 4 ERF - not lt 3% 5 Recycling, landfill, collections & contracts 17% 7 ERF power & Landfill Gas 6% Recyclate 5% 9 NHH Retail 1% 0%
REVENUE PROFILE
Water Wholesale and HH Retail
(3)
1 Water 47% 2 ERF - lt 12% 3 Other contracts - lt 9% 4 ERF - not lt 3% 5 Recycling, landfill, collections & contracts 17% 7 ERF power & Landfill Gas 6% Recyclate 5% 9 NHH Retail 1% 0%
Water Wholesale and HH Retail
Contracts ERF gate fees
1 Water 47% 4 ERF - not lt 3% 5 Recycling, landfill, collections & contracts 17% 7 ERF power & Landfill Gas 6% Recyclate 5% 9 NHH Retail 1% 0%
Recycling, landfill, collections and contracts ERF – gate fees Recyclate ERF power and landfill gas Water – Competition
0%
NHH Market Opening 2017
(4)
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Note: Full Year dividend in pence per share
2010/11
+4.9%
+6.5% +7.3% +7.6% 26.52 28.46 30.31 31.80 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20
+4%
annual increase above RPI policy to 2020 Scrip dividend alternative
24.65
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Ofwat Water and sewerage companies’ Return on Regulated Equity (RoRE) 2015-20
(1)As at H1 2015/16
Base returns in SWW Business Plan
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Note: Operational RoRE calculated from outperformance on Total Expenditure (TOTEX) compared to 2014 Final Determination allowances and performance on Outcome Delivery Incentives (ODI). Regulatory reporting requirements still to be confirmed by Ofwat for 2015/16 and therefore approach to calculating returns may be amended when further guidance is published
K6 Business Plan Commitment
ODIs TOTEX SIM
+1.5% +2.3% +0.2%
+2.2% 0.0% +0.3% £12.5m £0.1m £1.8m
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Operational ERF 2016-18 Consented facility
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9
LONG TERM CONTRACTED (C.80%)
MEDIUM TERM CONTRACTED SHORT TERM
70% WASTE FUEL INPUT (GATE FEES) 25% POWER OUTPUT
5% RECOVERED METALS
WASTE FUEL INPUT (GATE FEES)
ERF REVENUE
Pennon - natural hedge SWW/Viridor (c.25%)
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VIRIDOR One of the leading UK renewable energy, recycling and resource management companies providing services to more than 150 local authorities and major corporate clients as well as over 32,000 customers across the UK. SOUTH WEST WATER SWW provides water and sewerage services to a population of c.1.7 million in Devon and Cornwall and parts of Dorset and Somerset. SWW was awarded enhanced status for its 2015-2020 business plan, meaning it has the highest potential returns in the water sector. SWW is already
BOURNEMOUTH WATER Provides water services to a population of c.0.4 million in the Bournemouth and Christchurch region. Bournemouth was acquired in April 2015. Bournemouth Water is currently being integrated into SWW to deliver synergies and savings. The combined company is targeting frontier efficiency ahead of the 2019 Price Review. Bournemouth Water is one of the highest performing water companies with outstanding customer service and is also outperforming its business plan as at H1 2015/16.
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Recycling / Resource s Energy Retail Wholesale
Household Non- Household
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(Non-Household Retail)
(includes Bournemouth Water)
Recycling Contracts, Collections & Other(2) Landfill & Landfill Gas ERFs(2) South West Water Non-Household Retail
(1) As at H1 2015/16 (2) Includes share of JVEBITDA and IFRIC 12 interest receivable
PENNON GROUP EARNINGS PROFILE (1)
Underlying Group EBITDA
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INITIATIVES UNDERWAY ACROSS THE GROUP
(c.£27m of net synergies for K6)(2)
savings)(2)
ALONGSIDE DELIVERING IMPROVED CUSTOMER SERVICE AND ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE
(1) Full year annual equivalent of H1 2015/16 performance (2) Exceptional Group restructuring costs of c.£10m recognised in 2015/16 to implement changes, with a two year
payback
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SUSTAINABLE DEBT FUNDING
STRONG LIQUIDITY POSITION
(1) Net borrowings/(equity + net borrowings) (2) Including £211m of deposits with Letters of Credit providers and Lessors
CASH/COMMITTED FACILITIES(2)
(30 September 2015) GROUP NET BORROWINGS
(30 September 2015) GROUP NET GEARING(1)
(30 September 2015)
3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0%
Pennon Water Sector SWW
K4 (2005-10)
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PENNON EFFECTIVE INTEREST RATES
SUSTAINABLE AND EFFICIENT FINANCING – BALANCING RISK AND REWARD
WATER INDUSTRY 2014/15 AVERAGE INTEREST RATE ON NET DEBT
Source: Pennon calculation based on company Annual Reports Basis: Net interest payable excluding pensions net interest, IFRIC 12 “interest receivable”, discount unwind on provisions and interest receivable
(Includes: Anglian Water, Dwr Cymru, Northumbrian Water, Severn Trent, South West Water, Southern Water, Thames Water, United Utilities,
Wessex Water, Yorkshire Water
7.8% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 4.9% 4.7% 4.1% 4.1% 3.5% 3.3% SWW 3.2% SWW H1 2015/2016
K5 (2010-15) K6 (2015-20)
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11.5% K4 (2005-10) K5 (2010-15) K6 (H1 2015/16)
GROUP CASH GENERATED FROM OPERATIONS
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SWW RETURN ON REGULATED EQUITY (RORE)(2)
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 £M
394.8 407.3 411.0
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
GROUP EBITDA(1) £M
(1)Before exceptional items (2)Calculated from base equity returns allowed within the Final Determination plus outperformance delivered
ERFs expected to contribute
EBITDA by 2016/17 ERFs contributing significantly post - build out £m 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
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BASE ALLOWED RETURNS – 6.0% COMBINED TOTEX OUTPERFORMANCE – 2.2% RoRE
SIM OUTPERFORMANCE – 0.0% RoRE
ODI OUTPERFORMANCE – 0.3% RoRE
FINANCING COST – 3.0% RoRE
REGULATED EQUITY
(1) Final Determination allowances are sourced from Ofwat published models at outturn prices. Regulatory reporting requirements still to be confirmed by Ofwat for 2015/16 and therefore approach to calculating returns may be amended when further guidance published (2) Assuming recognition of advancements and deferrals from Final Determination and non-appointed costs (3) 22% of ODIs are in period rewards/penalties. (4) Inflated using average RPI for the half year to 30 September 2015 of 1.0%
Source: DEFRA, SEPA, NRW and Viridor analysis
UK COMBUSTIBLE RESIDUAL WASTE MARKET (MT)
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5 10 15 20 25 30 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Other ERF Capacity Viridor ERF Capacity UK ERF Under-capacity
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Source: Viridor Analysis
Long-term contracts at the start of the ERF programme
Balance of short and medium-term contracts (Municipal and Commercial & Industrial) Viridor capacity (operational & in construction) VIRIDOR CAPACITY
Fuel Load 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2010 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20
Clyde Valley Preparation Clyde Valley PQQ, ISOS & Detailed Submission Stage Clyde Valley Preferred Bidder & Contracting Complete Further Tenders Expected
Trident Contracting Status Dunbar Contracting Status
Source: Viridor Analysis
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fuel Load
TRIDENT PARK ERF
Project Gwyrdd Outline Bid Staged Stage Project Gwyrdd in Detailed Bid & Final Bid Stage Project Gwyrdd Contract signed & Tomorrow's Valley in Procurement Tomorrow’s Valley Completed Further Capacity Available
DUNBAR ERF
Planning & Permitting Achieved Planning & Permitting Achieved Plant Commissioning Plant Commissioning Plant Operational Plant Operational
Contracted % Merchant %
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OPERATIONAL RAMP-UP AT NEW PLANTS
ERFs brought on-stream in 2014/15, the same process performed at Lakeside
the plant delivered on time and below budget
performance at design capacity over c.12 months
the life of each plant and world class utilisation CONSTRUCTION OF THREE NEW ERFs PROGRESSING WELL AND TO BUDGET
construction progressing well
LAKESIDE RAMP-UP
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 Design 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Waste Inputs (tonnes)
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Source: Viridor Analysis
100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Design 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Power Exported (MWh)
AN ILLUSTRATIVE, LARGE ERF (C.300KT) WILL CONTRIBUTE C.£28M TO VIRIDOR EBITDA IAS 16 IFRIC 12 JVs
(Trident Park)
(Beddington)
(not committed)
ILLUSTRATIVE ERF(1) IAS 16 IFRIC 12 JVs EBITDA £28m £12m
Receivable
Underlying EBITDA £28m £28m £14m
(1) From first full year of operation (2) Local authority funding, interest income will be negligible
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PROGRESS ON ERF PIPELINE
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(1) Capital cost excludes capitalised interest and for projects for which the Engineering Procurement Construction (EPC) contract has not yet been executed, capital cost may vary in accordance with the Euro exchange rate (2) Operational period post construction. This is usually the minimum guaranteed plant life (3) Joint ventures economic interest (Lakeside 50%; Runcorn I 37.5%) (4) Project is not yet committed (5) Plus heat 51MWth (6) Plus heat 17MWth
SITE CAPITAL COST (1) GROSS CAPACITY STATUS BASE LOAD MUNICIPAL CONTRACT ACTUAL/EXPECTED COMMISSIONING Tonnes (000) Electricity MWe Lakeside(3) 150 410 38 Fully operational Merchant Commissioned Bolton N/A 120 9 Fully operational Greater Manchester Commissioned Exeter 48 60 3 Fully operational Exeter Commissioned Oxford (Ardley) 204 300 24 Operational ramp-up Oxfordshire Commissioned Cardiff (Trident Park) 207 350 28 Operational ramp-up Gwyrdd (SE Wales) Commissioned Runcorn I(3) 236 375 28(5) Operational ramp-up Greater Manchester Commissioned Runcorn II 217 375 41 Operational ramp-up Merchant Commissioned Peterborough 72 80 7 Operational ramp-up Peterborough Commissioned Glasgow 155 200 15 Moving to early commissioning Glasgow H1 2016/17 Dunbar 177 300 23(6) Construction in progress Merchant (Preferred Bidder Clyde Valley) H2 2017/18 South London (Beddington) 199 275 26 Construction in progress S London H1 2018/19 Sub Total 2,845 242 Avonmouth(4) 233 350 28 Planning permission achieved TBA TBA Grand Total 3,195 270
£M CUMULATIVE SPEND AT 1 APRIL 2015(2) CAPITAL INVESTMENT H1 2015/16 CUMULATIVE SPEND TO 30 SEP 2015 REMAINING SPEND TO COMPLETION TOTAL PROJECT SPEND ORIGINAL PLANNED PROJECT SPEND ERF projects in operation Exeter 47 1 48
47 Oxford (Ardley) 203 1 204
210 Cardiff (Trident Park) 207
223 Runcorn II 207 10 217
216 Total 664 12 676
696 ERF projects under construction Glasgow 121 7 128 27 155 155 Peterborough 53 13 66 6 72 72 Dunbar 11 23 34 143 177 177 South London (Beddington)
30 169 199 199 Total 185 73 258 345 603 603 Total 849 85 934 345 1,279 1299 Peterborough financed by local authority (53) (13) (66) (6) (72) (72) Total impact on net debt 796 72 868 339 1,207 1,227 31
(1) Excluding capitalised interest, £2m in H1 2015/16 and £60m cumulatively to 30 September 2015 (2) Including capital investment reclassified from construction in progress
MARCH 2016