Renewable Heating Technologies 2008 Andrew Giles Abdel Eljidi 14 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Renewable Heating Technologies 2008

Andrew Giles Abdel Eljidi 14th May 2009 Starting: 15:00 hrs Brussels Time (GMT+1) 14:00 hrs UK Time (GMT) 09:00 hrs New York Time slides will be recorded and presented on www.solarthermalworld.org

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Who are we?

Andrew Giles, MA General Manager BSRIA - World Market Intelligence (WMI) At BSRIA for 24 years Abdel Eljidi Senior Manager BSRIA - World Market Intelligence (WMI) At BSRIA for 4 years

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Heating and renewables Air conditioning and refrigeration IT cabling FM and contracting

• Turnover £2.1 million ($3.8m)

60% market reports 40% private client

• Research across 94 countries
• 30 permanent multi-lingual staff
• Offices in China, France, Spain,

Germany, partners in other countries

• Global network of associates

Water conservation & Sanitary ware

BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence

HVAC Lighting Fire Alarm CCTV Access Control Energy Management Central Workstation Remote Access HVAC Lighting Fire Alarm CCTV Access Control Energy Management Central Workstation Remote Access

Intelligent Building controls - Security / Fire / Environmental

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Introduction

Europe: 14 countries Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, UK, Croatia, Hungary, Poland World: Europe (14) plus U.S.A., China, Brazil, South Korea. Flat plate + Vacuum tubes (only glazed collectors)

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Multiclient Methodolgy 2 pronged attack

RESEARCH FIELDWORK Primary research

• Annual study now in fifth year
• Face to face interviews in every

country ( expert to expert )

• Telephone interviews
• Database from headquarters
• Global market specialist
• Strong QA procedures
• Country specialists

Secondary: Online and desk research GLOBAL ANALYST

• Abdel Eljidi (global market

specialist) attends exhibitions, conferences, seminars

• Media monitoring
• Constant discussion with

network of industry experts

• Japanese contacts
• Utilities
• Institues
• Manufacturers
• Web research ( products and

companies)

• QA research reports

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What is the impact of alternative heating technologies

• n traditional heating markets?

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Solar Thermal markets update 2008

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Changing nature

• f the HVAC industry in 2008/9

Lower growth of boiler sales in large European markets

Strong growth of renewable varies across technologies and markets Micro-CHP in field trial phase in Europe 2009/10 German solar market is booming with new subsidies in place Investment in renewable technologies strong in 2008 Stronger presence of Japanese AC companies Decreasing heating load for space heating in the new build insulation Likely to see some consolidation in HVAC market in 2009

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Market Drivers

• Concern fossil fuel supplies maybe disrupted (Russian winter

blues, political instability in the Middle East)

• Prices of oil/ gas likely to increase to similar peaks in 2008
• Construction slowing down

US & Europe

• Nuclear energy is becoming popular as alternative
• Increasing environmental awareness to climate change
• More stricter building regulations (EPBD, EuP, 2020)
• Race by HVAC mfrs to develop renewable products/ partnerships
• Various regional/ national subsidies to kick start the market!
• Promotions by utilities
• The role of some utilities changing from energy supply to

energy management

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Diversification on all fronts

Renewables Specialists

Air conditionin g Heating

Heat emitters

Air conditioning

M-CHP Heat Pumps Utilities changing

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Diversification of Leading Boiler Manufacturers, 2008

Boilers Water Heaters A/C Solar Thermal Heat pumps Heat Recovery Biomass Solar PV Micro- CHP / FC Bosch Therm.

trials

Vaillant Group

R & D

Viessmann 2007

trials

MTS

trials

BAXI ?? ?? De Dietrich-Remeha ?? ??

trials

Riello Ferroli Stiebel Eltron

R & D

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Key findings

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Solar supply is much more than a matter of adding some solar collectors Plenty of extra pipework, valves, pumps and controls

Impact on SOLAR THERMAL

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Various Incentives

National

Federal/ Regional

Green Loans public agencies Utilities

Tax credits Cheaper tariffs Feed in tariffs loans Grants Lower VAT

Local

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Selected Incentives schemes

• Different situation regarding incentives in various countries.

Important driver together with legislation.

• Germany, Austria,Italy, France among others offer incentives.

National and regional.

• Germany: MAP (

Marktanreizprogramm zu Gunsten erneuerbarer Energien ) by BAFA (minimum 410 per installation)

• France: 50% tax credits
• Italy: 55% tax credit up to 60,000(uncertainy for the future)
• Austria: varies from 600to over 3,000
• No incentives in Greece, Turkey and limited in the UK
• But in some countries (Spain, Israel) solar is becoming

mandatory

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World markets Solar Thermal

Worldwide Reach

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World markets Heat Pumps

Limited penetration

18 China

• 1006.5M

Others

• 93.7M

Turkey

• 10.5M

South Korea

• 9.8M

Poland

• 9.4M

UK

• 8.3M

France

• 6.3M

Others

• 16.0M

Germany

• 22.1M

Italy

• 11.3M

Vacuum tube, value, 2007/8

1,100 million 18.9 million m2

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Flat plate collector, value 2007/8

Others

• 530.2M

China

• 252.0M

Germany

• 113.3M

Spain

• 59.8M

Brazil

• 55.8M

Italy

• 51.0M

Greece

• 46.6M

Turkey

• 45.3M

France

• 41.4M

Austria

• 30.5M

USA

• 26.1M

Others

• 60.4M

782 million 6.3 million m2

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US Solar Water Heating Market

Trends & Forecasts 2003-2010

Sq.meters

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Excluding swimming pool collectors

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USA solar collector market 2008

Alternate Energy Technologies SunEarth Radco Products Heliodyne All others

Type of collectors Volume m

2

Value million (at MSP) Flat plate collectors 200,560 31.3 Vacuum tubes 8,590 1.7 Total 209,150 33.0

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European flat plate market size, in million (MSP), 2008

2008: 546 million

UK 3% Croatia 0.3% Hungary 0.3% Poland 2% Austria 6% Belgium 2% France 9% Germany 28% Greece 9% Italy 14% Portugal 2% Turkey 8% Switzerland 2% Spain 15%

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European vacuum tubes market size, in million (MSP), 2008

2008: 100.4 million

Switzerland 1% Portugal 1% Spain 4% Turkey 10% UK 11% Croatia 0.4% Hungary 2% Poland 14% Belgium 2% Austria 1% France 8% Germany 27% Greece 2% Italy 17%

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European solar thermal market (14 countries), in thousand m2, 2003-2012

0.0 1,000.0 2,000.0 3,000.0 4,000.0 5,000.0 6,000.0 7,000.0 8,000.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F

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European flat plate market, 2008, volume in m2

2008: 3,751,000 m2

200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000

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European vacuum tubes market, 2008, volume in m2

2008: 596,000 m2

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000

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Solar market trends and forecasts, 2003-2012

50%

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

G e r m a n y T u r k e y G r e e c e A u s t r i a S p a i n S

• u

t h K

• r

e a F r a n c e I t a l y U S A P

• l

a n d S w i t z e r l a n d U K B e l g i u m P

• r

t u g a l

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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European, type of circulation, 2008

Thermosiphon 34% Drainback 2% Forced Circulation (with pump) 64%

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European end-users, 2007

Residential new build 36% Residential replacement 10% Residential first time installation 42% Non-residential replacement 1% Non-residential new build 5% Non-residential first time installation 6%

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European applications, 2007

Commercial space heating (combi) 1% Swimming pools (excluding unglazed collectors) 2% Commercial hot water heating 9% Domestic space heating (combi) 19% Domestic hot water heating 69%

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Europe, type of installation, 2007

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% A u s t r i a C r

• a

t i a G r e e c e I t a l y P

• l

a n d P

• r

t u g a l H u n g a r y B e l g i u m G e r m a n y F r a n c e S p a i n S w i t z e r l a n d T u r k e y U K Stand alone installation unassisted by other heating systems Solar thermal system combined with heat pump total renewable solution Solar thermal system assisted by electric water heater Solar thermal system assisted by a boiler (Gas/ oil/ Biomass)

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Germany, flat plate market shares, 2008

Solvis Sunset (Chromagen) Weishaupt (Schweizer) Other Manu- facturers Pro Solar Vaillant Thermosolar Broetje (Baxi) Schueco GC Group Sonnenkraft Wagner Other Importers BBT Viessmann Wolf (Centrosolar)

2008: 1,850,000 m2

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Germany, vacuum tubes, 2008

Wagner Consolar Solvis BBT Others Paradigma Solar Technologies Elco- Kloeckner Vaillant Viessmann

2008: 160,000 m2

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UK flat plates, market share, in volume, 2008

Total: 47,900 m2

Solar Tw in Genersys Wolf Viessmann Filsol Others AES Solar Sundw el

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UK vacuum tubes, market share, in volume, 2008

Total: 30,000 m2

Collectra AG (by Smart Energy) Others Vaillant Sonnenkraft Viessmann Rayotec Kingspan Renew ables

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Commercial and Industrial Applications Untapped market!

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Opportunities in the Commercial and Industrial Markets

• Natural gas/ oil remain the main fuel but desire to phase out oil systems
• Collective Solar market growing but focus on hot water
• Share of renewables in industrial applications very low, mostly PV
• Large capacity high temp. heat pumps (CO2) limited to residential use
• Current various CSP systems still too costly and have limitations
• Restricted due to space required: cannot fixed securely on roofs or integrated

in the same way as ordinary flat plate/ evacuated tubes collectors

• Low awareness to solar heat potential in industrial/ commercial segments
• Several industries could benefit from medium to high temp renewables

systems, where pressure on reducing energy costs is high.

• Lack of incentives for commercial and industrial processes

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Key Target Applications for high efficiency collectors

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Solar cooling Market overview

Currently over 100 systems installed in Europe Most of solar suppliers interested in this segment Small number of manufacturers, mostly small/ medium companies <10 A combination of absorption/ adsorption chillers below 100kW For optimum efficiency solar collectors have limited use depending on location Vacuum tubes offer better potential but have short life span (fragile) Southern European (Italy, Spain, Greece) key target for market deployment The hotel and leisure industry, public buildings offer the largest potential Can reduce pressure on the electricity grid during peak times in the summer Clean, no refrigerants Commercial launch is dependent on higher fossil fuel costs and politics

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Solar cooling 1

Attractiveness of Solar cooling:

The technology appeals to end users due to lack of harmful refrigerants no GHG Can reduce pressure on the electricity grid during peak times in the summer Commercial launch is dependent on higher fossil fuel costs and politics Most manufacturers planning commercial launch in 2009/10

Current solar assisted cooling systems:

Climatewell: 10 kW, suitable for existing flat plat collectors <80C Sonnenklima (Suninverse): 10kW cooling, works on absorption principle with temp

from 55C to 105C, suitable for small buildings below 200m2

Sortech AG (7.5kW) Yazaki (Japan): now with fully fledged European office, mostly focused on OEM Solarctic

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Solar cooling 2

Potential competition:

Cheap and efficient electrical heat pumps subject to cheap electricity

price

Gas engine heat pumps (GHP): can do cooling + hot water

proven technology

GHP are successfully promoted in Italy, Spain, and recently

Germany and France

GHP are supplied by some leading A/C manufacturers: Sanyo, Aisin,

MHI

Hybrid systems: Gas absorption systems: Rotarktika (Spain),

Vaillant (Germany)

Hybrid biomass systems: cheap fuel as an alternative to solar

thermal in low radiation areas (Austria, Germany)

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Process heat

• High potential in segment below 300¢ºC
• Several industries could benefit
• Currently lacks awareness
• Almost 1/3 of process heat is below 200C, suitable for roof installation
• Current systems:
• Linear Fresnel: PSA AG (Germany)
• Requires large area of collectors
• Not suitable for roof installations
• Vulnerable to wind
• Peak power: 500W/m2
• For solar cooling: 1kWp/2m2
• R&D on reducing thermal loss of flat plate collectors (70-120C)
• R&D into heat storage (sorption heat storage)
• Large scale solar for district heating <1% (some 15 plants so far >500m2 area)
• Planned commercialisation 2009/10

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Big Changes on the way

• Solar thermal to be mandatory in new buildings
• Changing focus, from new build to renovation
• Big opportunities in the non-residential market
• Evolution towards mass market
• Energy storage becoming important
• Hybrid solution on the rise solar thermal + HP
• Micro-CHP a boiler progression but likely to

remain niche systems