Renewable Heating Technologies 2008 Andrew Giles Abdel Eljidi 14 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Renewable Heating Technologies 2008 Andrew Giles Abdel Eljidi 14 th May 2009 Starting: 15:00 hrs Brussels Time (GMT+1) 14:00 hrs UK Time (GMT) 09:00 hrs New York Time slides will be recorded and presented on www.solarthermalworld.org 1

Who are we? Andrew Giles , MA General Manager BSRIA - World Market Intelligence (WMI) At BSRIA for 24 years Abdel Eljidi Senior Manager BSRIA - World Market Intelligence (WMI) At BSRIA for 4 years 2

BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence � Turnover £2.1 million ($3.8m) � 60% market reports � 40% private client Central Central Workstation Workstation Remote Access Remote Access � Research across 94 countries � 30 permanent multi-lingual staff HVAC HVAC Access Access CCTV CCTV Fire Alarm Fire Alarm Lighting Lighting Energy Energy Control Control Management Management � Offices in China, France, Spain, Intelligent Building Heating and Germany, partners in other countries controls - Security / renewables Fire / Environmental � Global network of associates Air conditioning Water conservation FM and contracting IT cabling and refrigeration & Sanitary ware 3

Introduction � Europe : 14 countries Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, UK, Croatia, Hungary, Poland � World : Europe (14) plus U.S.A., China, Brazil, South Korea. � Flat plate + Vacuum tubes (only glazed collectors) 4

Multiclient Methodolgy � 2 pronged attack RESEARCH FIELDWORK GLOBAL ANALYST � Primary research Abdel Eljidi (global market specialist) attends exhibitions, � Annual study now in fifth year conferences, seminars � Face to face interviews in every � country ( � expert to expert � Media monitoring ) � Constant discussion with � Telephone interviews network of industry experts � Database from headquarters Japanese contacts � � Global market specialist Utilities � � Strong QA procedures Institues � � Country specialists Manufacturers � � Web research ( products and Secondary: Online and desk companies) research � QA research reports 5

What is the impact of alternative heating technologies on traditional heating markets? 6

Solar Thermal markets update 2008 7

Changing nature of the HVAC industry in 2008/9 � Lower growth of boiler sales in large European markets � Strong growth of renewable varies across technologies and markets � Micro-CHP in field trial phase in Europe 2009/10 � German solar market is booming with new subsidies in place � Investment in renewable technologies strong in 2008 � Stronger presence of Japanese AC companies � Decreasing heating load for space heating in the new build insulation � Likely to see some consolidation in HVAC market in 2009 8

Market Drivers � Concern fossil fuel supplies maybe disrupted (Russian winter blues, political instability in the Middle East) � Prices of oil/ gas likely to increase to similar peaks in 2008 � Construction slowing down � US & Europe � Nuclear energy is becoming popular as alternative � Increasing environmental awareness to climate change � More stricter building regulations (EPBD, EuP, 2020 � ) � Race by HVAC mfrs to develop renewable products/ partnerships � Various regional/ national subsidies to kick start the market! � Promotions by utilities � The role of some utilities changing from energy supply to energy management 9

Diversification on all fronts Heat emitters Utilities changing � Air Air Heating conditionin conditioning g Renewables Specialists Heat M-CHP Pumps 10

Diversification of Leading Boiler Manufacturers, 2008 Water Solar Heat Heat Micro- Boilers A/C Recovery Biomass Solar PV Heaters Thermal pumps CHP / FC trials Bosch Therm. R & D Vaillant Group Viessmann 2007 trials MTS trials ?? ?? BAXI ?? ?? trials De Dietrich-Remeha Riello Ferroli Stiebel Eltron R & D 11

Key findings 12 12

Impact on SOLAR THERMAL Solar supply is much more than a matter of adding some solar collectors Plenty of extra pipework, valves, pumps and controls 13

Various Incentives Federal/ National Grants Regional Lower VAT Tax credits Local Utilities Feed in tariffs Cheaper loans tariffs public Green agencies Loans 14

Selected Incentives schemes � Different situation regarding incentives in various countries. Important driver together with legislation. � Germany, Austria,Italy, France among others offer incentives. National and regional. Germany : MAP ( � � Marktanreizprogramm zu Gunsten erneuerbarer Energien � ) by BAFA (minimum � 410 per installation) � France : 50% tax credits Italy : 55% tax credit up to 60,000 � (uncertainy for the future) � Austria : varies from 600 � to over 3,000 � � � No incentives in Greece, Turkey and limited in the UK � But in some countries ( Spain , Israel ) solar is becoming mandatory 15

World markets � Solar Thermal Worldwide Reach 16

World markets � Heat Pumps Limited penetration 17

Vacuum tube, value, 2007/8 Others � Germany 16.0M � 22.1M France � 6.3M Others � 93.7M China UK Italy � � 8.3M 1006.5M � 11.3M Poland Turkey � 9.4M � 10.5M South Korea � 9.8M � 1,100 million 18.9 million m2 18

Flat plate collector, value 2007/8 Others � 60.4M USA Germany � 26.1M � 113.3M Austria � 30.5M China � 252.0M France Others Spain � � � 41.4M 59.8M 530.2M Turkey � 45.3M Brazil � 55.8M Greece � 46.6M Italy � 51.0M � 782 million 6.3 million m2 19

US Solar Water Heating Market Trends & Forecasts 2003-2010 Sq.meters 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Excluding swimming pool collectors 20

USA solar collector market 2008 All others Heliodyne Radco Products Alternate SunEarth Energy Technologies Value � million 2 Type of collectors Volume m (at MSP) Flat plate collectors 200,560 31.3 Vacuum tubes 8,590 1.7 Total 209,150 33.0 21

European flat plate market size, in � million (MSP), 2008 Hungary Poland 0.3% Croatia 2% 0.3% Austria Turkey UK 6% Belgium 8% 3% 2% France Switzerland 9% 2% Spain 15% Portugal Germany 2% 28% Italy Greece 14% 9% 2008: � 546 million 22

European vacuum tubes market size, in � million (MSP), 2008 Austria Hungary Poland Belgium 1% France 2% 14% 2% 8% Croatia 0.4% UK 11% Germany 27% Turkey 10% Switzerland 1% Italy Greece Portugal Spain 17% 2% 1% 4% 2008: � 100.4 million 23

European solar thermal market (14 countries), in thousand m 2 , 2003-2012 8,000.0 7,000.0 6,000.0 5,000.0 4,000.0 3,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 24

European flat plate market, 2008, volume in m 2 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2008: 3,751,000 m2 25

European vacuum tubes market, 2008, volume in m 2 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2008: 596,000 m2 26

Solar market trends and forecasts, 2003-2012 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 a d m l y y e a n e y A K a d n l n e c i i e c S U g a a n u a r a k e t r n u p o t U a i m r s I l g e a o t u S K l u r l r r r P e r T e o G A F e B h z P G t t u i w o 50% S S 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 27

European, type of circulation, 2008 Drainback 2% Thermosiphon 34% Forced Circulation (with pump) 64% 28

European end-users, 2007 Non-residential first time Non-residential installation replacement 6% 1% Residential new Non-residential build new build 36% 5% Residential first Residential time installation replacement 42% 10% 29

European applications, 2007 Commercial space Swimming pools heating (combi) (excluding unglazed 1% collectors) Commercial hot water 2% heating 9% Domestic space heating (combi) 19% Domestic hot water heating 69% 30

Europe, type of installation, 2007 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% a d y y e n d a e y l m y K a n i c l n r c i n e i t a g a a U r u a a n e a a k t t u g p s i o e I l g m a l r o S r u t n u r r r l r e C P e r F T A G o u e z H B P G t i w S Stand alone installation � unassisted by other heating systems Solar thermal system combined with heat pump � total renewable solution Solar thermal system assisted by electric water heater Solar thermal system assisted by a boiler (Gas/ oil/ Biomass) 31

Germany, flat plate market shares, 2008 Pro Solar Thermosolar Sunset (Chromagen) Vaillant Wolf Solvis Weishaupt (Centrosolar) (Schweizer) Broetje (Baxi) Other Manu- facturers Schueco Other GC Group Importers BBT Sonnenkraft Wagner Viessmann 2008: 1,850,000 m2 32

Germany, vacuum tubes, 2008 Consolar Solvis Solar Technologies Elco- Wagner Kloeckner BBT Vaillant Others Viessmann 2008: 160,000 m2 Paradigma 33