Rebecca Riley Business Development Director @CityREDI - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Rebecca Riley

Business Development Director

@CityREDI @RileyResearch #analystFEST

Welcome!

9.35 The Combined Authority and the role of data, research and intelligence Martin Reeves 9.50 Political mandate, public policy and data and analysis -Tony Bray 10.15 Evidence supporting WMCA Strategic Economic Plan - Delma Dwight 10.30 Panel Q&A on research demand 10.45 Coffee break 11.00 Meet the research project session 1 11.45 Lunch and networking 12.45 Meet the research project session 2 13.30 How the universities are supporting decision making in the West Midlands Richard Kenny 13.45 LARIA – promoting collaboration - Andy Davis 14.00 Team West Midlands – the research capacity across the region - Andy Baker 14.15 Panel Q&A on research supply 14.30 First steps to collaboration – getting Data Ducks in a row - Rebecca Riley 14.45 Closing remarks – Simon Collinson

Dr Martin Reeves Chief Executive, Coventry City Council Chief Executive, WMCA

AnalystFEST Event Programme

Tuesday 24 January 2017

Political mandate, public policy and data and analysis

AnalystFest: Tuesday 24th Jan 2017, Birmingham

Tony Bray

Area Director – West Midlands, Cities and Local Growth Unit Department for Communities and Local Government and Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy

5

What will I say...

6

Context – a changing world? A public policy framework Analysis making a difference – some case studies Wrap up

Context – A changing world?

7

A public policy framework

8

8 8 Source: ONS

LEGITIMACY Political mandate based on public confidence. Counter views can be ignored or managed by stakeholder engagement. How much ‘political capital’ is a policy worth? POLICY Legitimate policy clearly links to the political mandate. Evidence informs choices – rarely just

• ne way of doing something.

And evidence informs how to implement a policy. ACTION Delivery is king Centre for Public Impact 2016

Cumulative GVA growth by LEP

9

Political mandate, policy and analysis

Source: ONS 9

POLITICAL MANDATE Provides headline legitimacy for policy intent Constantly tested by opposition views, media and public Balance between political philosophy, complexity of delivery and

• ther priorities

POLICY Converting policy intent into firm, agreed and adopted policies Evidence and analysis is critical. ACTION Performance management critical to demonstrating impact. Benefits and value for money. Lessons learned – evaluation.

Cumulative GVA growth by LEP

10

Case study: The journey to LEPs and beyond....

Source: ONS 10

• Policy intent 2010: Abolish Regional Development Agencies – develop a more

localist solution. Subsequently further deepened through devolution deals.

• Analytical approach: Choice: devote a lot of resource to thinking about

functional economic areas or establish principles based on evaluation

– The importance of developing a local strategy rather than rushing to specific interventions: City Challenge Fund evaluation underlined the need to develop a clear, robust and realistic strategy that targets local needs. Then easier to make difficult decisions on prioritising limited resources. Early focus on Strategic Economic Plans. – Organising at the appropriate spatial scale: Growing evidence that local growth institutions reflect real economic geography (Functional Economic Areas). The latest economic evidence suggests growth penalty c.5-6% for each doubling in the number of administrative units in a city region. This is one of the key rationales for LEPs and MCAs. – The value of co-ordinating efforts: Factors found to make good partnerships work in the SRB context included the need to avoid ‘arranged marriages’ no matter how convenient and instead building on what already exists. Bottom- up approach to LEP partnerships. – Clear accountability and incentives: Multiple evaluations highlight being clear who does what and the tools they have leads to successful delivery and

• impacts. Develop role of LEPs, with MCAs where areas choose.

– The importance of better monitoring and evaluation at the right time: The evidence shows that many ineffectual schemes have been recycled and rebranded through a revolving door of area-based initiatives. Established the What Works Centre and the Gainshare evaluation panel.

• We continue to work very closely with analysts and academic experts as we

develop our policy.

An approximation of “functional economic

areas” across England2

Cumulative GVA growth by LEP

11

Case study: Delivering more homes

Source: DCLG 11

• Policy intent 2016: Increase scale and pace of house building to

increase supply, mix of tenures and improve affordability.

• Analytical approach: What are the barriers to investment and

how could it be incentivised?

• Three primary barriers to commercial viability:

– prohibitive up front costs (land acquisition, remediation etc.); – uncertainty over long-term income generation; – and a lack of ability to capture wider value (e.g. from proximate land price growth).

• Existing funding tools (e.g. CIL, Gainshare, New Homes Bonus, Local Growth Fund) have

individual merits but are difficult to align locally around strategic infrastructure priorities and to present as a compelling offer to investors, and so are less than the sum of their parts.

• Value uplift created through larger-scale site-enabling infrastructure is not captured by those

paying for it, meaning sites that offer development potential but require expensive up front infrastructure investment cannot be unlocked.

• Local leadership and capability is a critical enabler to identify strategic infrastructure projects

and unlock sites and schemes. Local areas are not sufficiently incentivised or equipped with the tools or capabilities to realise these opportunities.

• Investors care about place and will act differently depending on local conditions. Using

intelligence from major investors we can categorise local market conditions . This analysis should be the starting point for efforts to drive local infrastructure investment.

12

Investability

12

Index of Local Market Performance Using Private Investor ‘Investability’ Criteria

What private investors look for in a local market

Major investors shared their criteria for ‘area investability’ with us. We used 12 metrics to create an index covering market demand, the potential for land value uplift and the likelihood of planning approval We used this analysis to derive 3 primary market typologies (these are intended to be illustrative rather than conclusive about which intervention is needed in which place).

• 1. Strong market conditions

Characterised by: High land value and value uplift as well as strong, relatively certain

• demand. Private sector investment heavily favours these market conditions. Strong

possibilities to recoup public finance through uplift and income generation.

• 2. Mid market conditions

Characterised by: Lower land values and uplift with variable demand. Private sector investment is project specific due to reduced certainty. Opportunities to recoup public investment since viability gap can be marginal.

• 3. Weak market conditions

Characterised by: Low land values and uplift with weak local demand. Little private sector investment with the greatest uncertainty in long-term demand.

Who we interviewed

273 163 161 143 77 63 29 12 7

Tees* Ipswich Swindon Newham Cambridge

13

Housing Infrastructure Fund

• Autumn Statement 2016: £2.3 Bn Housing Infrastructure

Fund announced

• “We will focus local infrastructure investment to unlock land

for housing with a new £2.3bn Housing Infrastructure Fund to deliver infrastructure for up to 100,000 new homes in areas of high demand”

• Funding to local authorities – projects must demonstrate

strong VFM

• Wide definition of infrastructure
• Place-based approach – HIF on its own will not be the

solution (local leadership and capacity, planning, public land, alignment of different funds, co-investment, portfolio/pipeline of projects etc.

To wrap up…

14

14

Analysis remains central to good public policy But, analysts inform, politicians decide Need to be aware of ‘legitimacy’ – including public sentiment and behaviours Analysis is central to turning policy intent into actual policies, which can be implemented and deliver impact Good analysis is changing the way the Government works, especially central/local relationships More collaboration/joint working between HMG and areas to promote better ‘local delivery’ policy

Thank you

Tony Bray

Area Director – West Midlands, Cities and Local Growth Unit Department for Communities and Local Government and Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy tony.bray@beis.gov.uk

15

Evidence Supporting WMCA Strategic Economic Plan

Delma Dwight Head of Intelligence Black Country Economic Intelligence Unit Black Country Consortium Delma_Dwight@blackcountryconsortium.co.uk

A Family of SEPs – Collective Ambitions

BCLEP Baselin e 2013 BCLEP SEP Ambiti

• ns

Econo my+ JOBS 495k +92K +114k (+12k) GVA £19bn +£15bn +£16.5 bn (+£1.5b n) Homes 482k +45k CWLEP Baselin e 2013 CWLEP SEP Ambiti

• ns

Econom y+ JOBS 459k +119K jobs +132k (+12k) GVA £19bn +£18bn +£20bn (+£2bn) Homes 376k +75k GBSLEP Baseline 2013 GBSLEP SEP Ambitio ns Econom y+ JOBS 945k +244K +269k (+24k) GVA £40bn +£34bn +£37.5b n (+£3.5bn ) Homes 803k +14k WMCA LEP SEP Ambitio ns WMCAS EP Ambitio ns JOBS +455k

+504k (+49k)

GVA £40bn

+£75bn (+£7bn)

Homes TBA TBA

GVA per head – UK & WMCA Trend

GVA per head – WM 3 LEP SEP

GVA per head – WMCA SEP – Economy+

WMCA Performance Management Framework

Increasing GVA & Productivity - Improve GVA per head in line with National Average by 2026 (KPI1) Raising Productivity and Eradicating the £14bn Output Gap Double total GVA by 2030 (KPI2)

A Dynamic Economic Impact Model

 A best in class model to inform strategy delivery to maximise economic impact.  A tool for proposition development to maximize economic impact Tool to aid assessment of Outline Business Cases on the economic impact of the proposal

PwC

Business Competitiveness & Productivity (Economic Impact)

• B3. Increased number of

business births (+2,825 births p.a. until 2030) and greater longevity of businesses

• B6. Employment rate

increase (to 80% by 2030)

• P3. Earnings increase

Policy Aims Inputs / Activities Outputs Outcomes Impacts

To improve the productivity (as measured by Gross Value Added) of our businesses focussing on our growth sectors Target number of new jobs created (by sector) Improved survival rates of businesses Increased productivity resulting in increased public funds through tax revenue

Value of impacts / Metrics

Increased levels of business growth Reduced barriers to growth for businesses Increased levels of research and development or innovation in business Increased employment rate in target growth sectors A higher paid workforce Increase in employment (esp in targeted sectors)

• B4. Jobs in growth

sectors (+307k by 2030) Target number of businesses created Target number of businesses assisted

• B5. Increase in total

number of jobs (+505k by 2030) Activities Specific schemes to address 5 drivers

• f productivity (innovation,

investment, skills, enterprise, competition) e.g. barriers to growth, shortages of skills, funding, infrastructure etc. Focus on SEP Growth Sectors Reduce administrative burdens / “red tape” Build on existing LEP programmes where appropriate, considering the ‘added value’ Address competitive disadvantage of manufacturing businesses due to (for example) energy costs. Increased collaboration both public- private and private-private Innovation and R&D activities (link to Innovation Audit) Work with UKTI to encourage Foreign Direct Investment through information campaigns Clear links to the work of WMCA Productivity & Skills Commission Inputs Resources (£x, people, (staff and volunteers), estates, technology, policy levers, e.g. Tax / business rate incentives) Increase in FDI Use of automation and technology in targeted, evidence based interventions to unlock economic growth Reduced energy and waste costs

• B1. Increase in GVA per

worker Increased exports Creating an environment in which businesses wish to invest New technology and intellectual property developed New and lasting collab0rations Increase in GVA

• B2. Increase GVA in

Transformational sectors

• F1. Reduce the fiscal

deficit of £3.9bn

"Impact pathways developed by Black Country Consortium, in association with PwC".

Panel Q&A

Research demand in the region Martin Reeves Tony Bray Delma Dwight

Coffee

Meet the Research Project

• Urban Living Birmingham – John Bryson
• City-REDI – Rebecca Riley
• USE-IT! – Charlotte Hoole
• SKillUP – Mariachiara Barzotto
• Dynamic Economic Impact Model (DEIM) – Manjit

Galsinh

• Using evaluation to support local authority decision-

making – George Bramley

Lunch

Meet the Research Project

• Urban Living Birmingham – John Bryson
• City-REDI – Rebecca Riley
• USE-IT! – Charlotte Hoole
• LARIA West Midlands – Andy Baker & Andy Davis
• The 21st Public Servant – Catherine Mangan

Richard Kenny

Interim Director of Partnerships (Universities) West Midlands Combined Authority Tel: 0121 414 9666 Mob: 07885 733 862 E-mail R.Kenny@Bham.ac.uk @RichardKenny9

How are the universities supporting decision-making across the West Midlands

• Short answer somewhere between not at all and at the

margins – the existing model

• And look how well we have been doing over recent years
• A new model - combined authorities and combined

universities

• Why now is a once in a life time opportunity
• Breaking through and embedding
• How far can we go – science v complexity, geeks and sense-

makers

• A new democratic legitimacy, draw-down, scale and place.

LARIA – Promoting Collaboration

Andy Davis, LARIA Treasurer 24th January 2017 www.laria.org.uk @laria

40 Years of LARIA 1974-2014

• Our work improves lives and local areas through the

use of local research, intelligence and policy.

• We promote continuous improvements in the

quality and impact of local research and intelligence.

• By promoting high standards and excellence in

research, analysis and insight we ensure maximum impact in the delivery of high quality public service.

About LARIA

We welcome local researchers from the following sectors to join as members:

• Local government
• Government departments and other national

representative bodies

• Education and universities
• Fire & rescue authorities and services
• Freelance researchers
• Health and NHS
• Housing
• Police & Crime Commissioners and police forces
• Private companies
• Voluntary and community sector organisations
• Any other bodies engaged in local research

We want to create a supportive network of researchers….. Corporate: For just £80 a year everyone in your organisation gets

• ur full range of membership benefits
• Full: Joining LARIA as an individual Full member for just £10 a

year - sign up to the LARIA Charter and have voting rights for the LARIA council

• Associate: We depend on the subscriptions that our Full and

Corporate members pay but if you just wish to stay in touch and receive invites to some LARIA networking events and subscribe to

• ur newsletter you can register for free as an Associate member.

Join now (you can do it online at www.laria.org.uk)

Have you visited our website? www.laria.org.uk Knowledge Hub? https://khub.net/web/lariagroup

Skills;

Intelligence Desk research Business planning Market research JSNA Consultation Financial modelling Geodemographics Ethnography Statistics Performance Predicting future demand Stakeholder management Engagement

Question: Which, if any, of the following are barriers to your local authority making robust evidence based decisions? Source: 97 SOLACE members who responded to the survey online between September and October 2012

71% 73% 76% 76% 78% 79% 85% 86% 88% 94%

Inconclusive nature of the evidence Poor quality of evidence collection Lack of resources for council overall Lack of comparable data with other authorities Pressure from vocal local residents/ groups Lack of resources for evidence gathering Out of date evidence Evidence too slow to gather Political pressures/ priorities Government pressures/ priorities

Top 10

Barriers to evidence based decisions

Focus for research, intelligence & policy resources over next 12 months…

• Reducing costs in organisation
• Improving customer journey/delivering

customer insight

• Service performance monitoring/managing
• Corporate and business/service level

transformation

• Supporting integration of social care and health

services

Most useful issues for professional bodies working in local research, intelligence and policy to focus on

• Convincing senior decision makers of the value of the work

being done

• Encouraging partnership/collaborative working between
• rganisations
• Delivering better sharing of data within and between local
• rganisations, where appropriate
• Getting the most out of new and emerging technology
• Improving professional development/skills

Skills/Professional development; What do you want to improve most over next 12 months?

• Predictive modelling
• Customer insight/big data analysis
• Networking with other professionals in sector
• Statistical analysis
• Understanding the impact of new govt. policies

We keep our fees low through the work of

• volunteers. Do you want to join us?

Could you help us organise more free local networking events in the West Midlands? Could you write something for our website?

Meet us at our stand to find out more, or get in touch

Could you join the LARIA Council and help set the agenda for the work we do? Do you represent an

• rganisation that could

work more closely with LARIA?

LARIA National Contacts:

Neil Wholey, LARIA Chair nwholey@westminster.gov.uk 020 7641 3317 Twitter: @neilwholey Andy Davis, LARIA Treasurer andydavis96@gmail.com Twitter: @andy_davis1 www.laria.org.uk @laria https://khub.net/web/lariagroup

Andy Baker

Andy Baker Insight Manager (Intelligence) Andy.baker@coventry.gov.uk; 024 7683 2175

Local networks

Common themes Continual journey

Examples

National links

Actions

Visit http://laria.org.uk/ and see if your

• rganisation is already a member

Get West Midlands on the map – Enter LARIA Research Impact Awards Get in touch to help navigate the networks andy.baker@coventry.gov.uk

Panel Q&A

Research Supply in the region Richard Kenny Andy Davies Andy Baker

Rebecca Riley Business Development Director

CityREDI University of Birmingham

@CityREDI @RileyResearch #analystFEST

First steps to collaboration Why?

Opportunities

• Share, analyse and improve data
• Identify specialist academics to work with through

the network

• Identify gaps and look for ways to fill them
• Collaborative funding bids to fulfil needs regionally
• Have a point of call for specific data themes
• Work with national partners to develop

collaborations

First Steps to Collaboration

Business Productivity Demography Health & Social Care Education & Skills Productivity Transport Housing Sustainability

Professor Simon Collinson

The Department of Strategy and International Business

Deputy Pro-Vice-Chancellor for Regional Economic Engagement Director of the City-Region Economic Development Institute (City-REDI) Professor of International Business and Innovation

Telephone: 0121 414 9672 Email: s.collinson@bham.ac.uk

@profsicollinson