Q4 and FULL-YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS February 7, 2019 - - PDF document

q4 and full year 2018 financial results
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Q4 and FULL-YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS February 7, 2019 - - PDF document

Kellogg Company February 7, 2019 Kellogg Company Q4 and FULL-YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS February 7, 2019 Forward-Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Measures This presentation contains, or incorporates by reference, forward - looking


slide-1
SLIDE 1

Kellogg Company February 7, 2019 1 of 11

February 7, 2019

Kellogg Company

Q4 and FULL-YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

Forward-Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Measures

This presentation contains, or incorporates by reference, “forward-looking statements” with projections concerning, among other things, the Company’s global growth and efficiency program (Project K), the integration of acquired businesses, the Company’s strategy, zero-based budgeting, and the Company’s sales, earnings, margin, operating profit, costs and expenditures, interest expense, tax rate, capital expenditure, dividends, cash flow, debt reduction, share repurchases, costs, charges, rates of return, brand building, ROIC, working capital, growth, new products, innovation, cost reduction projects, workforce reductions, savings, and competitive pressures. Forward-looking statements include predictions of future results or activities and may contain the words “expects,” “believes,” “should,” “will,” “anticipates,” “projects,” “estimates,” “implies,” “can,” or words or phrases of similar meaning. The Company’s actual results or activities may differ materially from these predictions. The Company’s future results could also be affected by a variety

  • f factors, including the ability to implement Project K (including the exit from its Direct Story Delivery system) as planned, whether the expected amount of

costs associated with Project K will differ from forecasts, whether the Company will be able to realize the anticipated benefits from Project K in the amounts and times expected, the ability to realize the benefits from our implementation of a more formal Revenue Growth Management discipline, the ability to realize the anticipated benefits and synergies from the acquisitions in the amounts and at the times expected, the impact of competitive conditions; the effectiveness of pricing, advertising, and promotional programs; the success of innovation, renovation and new product introductions; the recoverability of the carrying value of goodwill and other intangibles; the success of productivity improvements and business transitions; commodity and energy prices; transportation costs; labor costs; disruptions or inefficiencies in supply chain; the availability of and interest rates on short-term and long-term financing; actual market performance of benefit plan trust investments; the levels of spending on systems initiatives, properties, business opportunities, integration of acquired businesses, and other general and administrative costs; changes in consumer behavior and preferences; the effect of U.S. and foreign economic conditions on items such as interest rates, statutory tax rates, currency conversion and availability; legal and regulatory factors including changes in food safety, advertising and labeling laws and regulations; the ultimate impact of product recalls; business disruption or other losses from war, terrorist acts or political unrest; and other items. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they were made, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update them publicly. This presentation includes non‐GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the earnings press release, which is available on the Investor Relations page on the Company’s website, www.Kelloggcompany.com, for a reconciliation of these non‐GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. Management believes that the use of such non-GAAP measures assists investors in understanding the underlying operating performance of the company and its segments.

2

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Kellogg Company February 7, 2019 2 of 11

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

2018 – Pivot to Growth

3

  • Strategy – Implemented Deploy For Growth, with clear priorities

and tangible actions

  • Portfolio – Reshaping through acquisitions, investment;

announced proposed divestitures

  • Investment – Stronger ideas, improved ROI, revitalizing brands,

enhancing capabilities

  • Progress – Stabilized organic net sales trend, improved

consumption performance

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

4

Net Sales Turnaround – The Heaviest Lifting

  • Re-establishing Brand messaging
  • New product launches
  • Pack formats and channels
  • International expansion
  • Capabilities development

* Please refer to the Q4 2018 earnings press release for reconciliation to non-GAAP measures.

Est.

Organic Growth in Net Sales, in Percent *

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Kellogg Company February 7, 2019 3 of 11

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

Building a Base for Sustainable Growth – 2019 Priorities

5

Revitalizing Brands Enhancing Capabilities Reshaping Our Portfolio

  • Innovation
  • Pack formats
  • Revenue Growth Management
  • E-commerce
  • Organizational structure
  • MultiPro (West Africa)
  • RX
  • New brands
  • Divestitures

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

Net Sales – Improved Performance

6

Year-over-year, % change

* Please refer to Q4 2018 earnings press release tables for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure.

Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2018 Net Sales Growth by Component *

Volume +1.9% Price/Mix (1.9)% Organic +0.0% Acquisitions +6.3% Currency-Neutral +6.2% Currency Translation (0.8)% Reported +5.4%

  • RX acquisition and growth
  • Multipro (West Africa) consolidation
  • Currency-neutral impact
  • Brands responding to investment
  • Organic growth impacted by (1)%

from mechanical impact of DSD

  • Mix shift toward emerging markets

(0.2)% (0.4)% (0.6)% +8.2% +7.2% (3.0)% +4.2% Q4 2018

  • Broad-based strengthening of U.S. Dollar

during second half

2018 Comments: Shipping Days (0.1)% (0.4)%

  • Year-ago Parati fiscal-year true-up
slide-4
SLIDE 4

Kellogg Company February 7, 2019 4 of 11

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

Gross Profit Margin – Impacted by Acquisition & Mix

7

% of Net Sales, Adjusted Basis *

* Please refer to Q4 2018 earnings press release tables for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure.

Ongoing: ~0 bp for the full year

Cost inflation (transportation, energy, inputs) Productivity savings

Mechanical: ~(150) bp for full year

Multipro impact Q2-Q4 DSD impact Q1-Q3

Growth-Related: ~(100) bp for full year

Adverse mix shifts (pack formats, emerging markets) Operating leverage

_

+

_ _

+

Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018

_

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

Summary of Financial Results – Growth & Investment

8

Reported Currency-Neutral Adjusted*

* Please refer to Q4 2018 earnings press release tables for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure.

% Change Versus Prior Year

Net Sales Operating Profit Earnings Per Share

Reported Currency-Neutral Adjusted* Reported Currency-Neutral *

Full Year Results

  • Organic flat, despite negative DSD impact
  • RX and Multipro acquisitions
  • Strong increase in Brand Building
  • Costs related to alternative pack formats
  • Investments in capabilities
  • Tax Reform and discrete tax benefits

Q4 Results

+4.2% +5.4% +7.2% +6.2% (16.5)% +22.9% (1.1)% +0.1% +0.0% +8.0% (120.0)% +7.0%

2018 Commentary:

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Kellogg Company February 7, 2019 5 of 11

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

Cash Flow – Durable and As Expected

9

* Cash Flow defined as cash from operating activities, less capital expenditure. Please refer to Q4 2018 earnings press release for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure. “Core Working Capital” is an internal Kellogg metric defined as last 12 months’ average trade receivables and inventory, less 12 months’ average trade payables, divided by last 12 months’ net sales.

  • 2018 cash flow of $958 million,

roughly even with pre-recast 2017

  • Includes $(162) million after-tax

voluntary pension contribution

  • Increased capital expenditure for

growth

  • Improved core working capital

efficiency

*

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

10

Moving Toward Sustainable Growth

Reduce Cost Structure Invest in Brands & Capabilities Deliver Sustainable Growth

  • Complete Project K
  • Sustain ZBB
  • Brand Building &

Innovation

  • Pack Formats
  • Commercial Execution
  • Portfolio
  • Balanced Top-Line Growth

and Margin Expansion

Slide shown at

  • Nov. 13, 2018
slide-6
SLIDE 6

Kellogg Company February 7, 2019 6 of 11

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

11

Investment Phase – Continues into 2019

2016-2017 2018 2019 Net Sales

Organic Basis(a) *

Investment Operating Profit

Adjusted Basis, Currency-Neutral(b) *

Focused on reducing cost structure Investing in brands and capabilities, bringing net sales back to growth +0.0% +0.1%

(a) Organic growth excludes the impact of foreign currency translation, acquisitions, divestitures, and changes in shipping days. (b) Adjusted Operating Profit excludes the impact of mark-to-market adjustments, costs related to Project K, and other gains/costs impacting comparability. Currency neutral also excludes the impact of foreign currency translation.

+1-2% ~ Flat

* Please refer to Q4 2018 earnings press release tables for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure.

Slide shown at

  • Nov. 13, 2018

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

2019 Guidance – Investment & Growth

12

(a) 2019 guidance for Currency Neutral Net Sales growth excludes the impact of foreign currency translation. Organic growth also excludes acquisitions, divestitures, and changes in shipping days. (b) 2019 guidance for adjusted Operating Profit and adjusted Earnings Per Share excludes the impact of mark-to-market adjustments, costs related to Project K, and other gains/costs impacting

  • comparability. Currency neutral also excludes the impact of foreign currency translation.

Adjusted EPS(b)

Currency Neutral

Adjusted Operating Profit(b)

Currency Neutral

Net Sales(a)

Currency Neutral

+3-4% ~ Flat (5)-(7)%

  • Improved organic, +1-2%
  • Multipro acquisition impact for 4 months
  • Gradual improvement in balance between volume and price/mix
  • Input/freight cost inflation, largely offset by productivity and RGM
  • Increased investment in packaging, brand building, capabilities
  • Mix and costs for alternate pack formats, mainly in 1H
  • Incentive compensation versus below-target 2018
  • Tax rate ~21%, lapping ~ 5 pts. of discrete tax benefits of 2018
  • Interest expense up on full year of acquisition debt and higher

floating rates

  • Other income decreases sharply on lower pension asset value

* Please refer to Q4 2018 earnings press release tables for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure.

Cash Flow * ~ Flat

  • Increased capital expenditure behind growth initiatives and

full year of Multipro

Growth vs. Prior Year *

All guidance excludes proposed divestitures

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Kellogg Company February 7, 2019 7 of 11

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

2019 Guidance – Quarterly Shape of Operating Profit

13

Growth vs. Prior Year, Adjusted Operating Profit, Currency-Neutral *

* Guidance for adjusted Operating Profit excludes the impact of mark-to-market adjustments, costs related to Project K, and other gains/costs impacting comparability. Currency neutral also excludes the impact of foreign currency translation.

  • Lapping year-earlier cost

favorability in 1H

  • Heavier investment

behind innovation in 1H

  • Pack-format margin

improvement in 2H

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

2019 Guidance – Quarterly Shape of Effective Tax Rate

14

Effective Tax Rate, Adjusted Basis 5 10 15 20 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2018

2019 Estimated full-year tax rate ~21%

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Kellogg Company February 7, 2019 8 of 11

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

Broad-Based Net Sales Improvement

15

Net Sales Growth, in Percent, Organic Basis *

* Organic net sales growth excludes the impact of foreign currency translation, acquisitions, divestitures, and changes in shipping days. Please refer to Q4 2018 earnings press release tables for reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure. KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

North America Snacks – Progress & Priorities

16

What to Watch For in 2019: Stronger innovation Momentum and margin improvement on pack formats Expansion for RX and natural brands Divestiture of cookies, fruit snacks, pie crusts, ice-cream cones

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Kellogg Company February 7, 2019 9 of 11

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

North America Cereal – Progress & Priorities

17

What to Watch For in 2019: Amplify wellness attributes Launch digestive-health brand Accelerate natural offerings Continue to drive taste and fun Improve aisle shoppability

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

North America Frozen Foods – Progress & Priorities

18

What to Watch For in 2019: Eggo food news and communication MorningStar Farms amplification of credentials and trial drive

Source: Nielsen

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Kellogg Company February 7, 2019 10 of 11

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

Kellogg Europe – Progress & Priorities

19

*

What to Watch For in 2019: Pringles sustained momentum Share growth in cereal Transform wholesome snacks Expand Russia/Central Europe

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

Kellogg Latin America – Progress & Priorities

20

What to Watch For in 2019: Expansion of Parati Growth in Pringles Mexico Cereal Growth Stabilization in Caribbean/Central America

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Kellogg Company February 7, 2019 11 of 11

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

Asia Pacific – Progress & Priorities

21

What to Watch For In 2019: Expansion in Africa Sustained Pringles growth Continued cereal growth in Asia & Africa Stable Australia

KELLOGG COMPANY Q4 & FULL YEAR 2018 FINANCIAL RESULTS | FEBRUARY 7, 2019

Summary

22

  • Reshaping

Portfolio

  • Revitalizing

Brands

  • Enhancing

Capabilities

  • Net Sales

Growth

  • In-Market

Performance

  • Return on

Investment Investments In: Improvements In: