7 May 2020
Chief Executive Officer Steve Binnie Sappi Limited
Q2 FY20 financial results
delivering on
strategy
2020
Vision 2020
intentional
evolution
next phase
growth
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Q2 FY20 financial results delivering on strategy 7 May 2020 2020 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Q2 FY20 financial results delivering on strategy 7 May 2020 2020 Vision 2020 next phase growth intentional evolution Steve Binnie Chief Executive Officer Sappi Limited 1 Forward-looking statements and Regulation G Forward-looking
Chief Executive Officer Steve Binnie Sappi Limited
delivering on
intentional
evolution
next phase
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Certain statements in this release that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information, are forward-looking statements, including but not limited to statements that are predictions of
“risk” and other similar expressions, which are predictions of or indicate future events and future trends and which do not relate to historical matters, identify forward-looking statements. In addition, this document includes forward-looking statements relating to our potential exposure to various types of market risks, such as interest rate risk, foreign exchange rate risk and commodity price risk. You should not rely on forward-looking statements because they involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which are in some cases beyond our control and may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from anticipated future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements (and from past results, performance or achievements). Certain factors that may cause such differences include but are not limited to:
The highly cyclical nature of the pulp and paper industry (and the factors that contribute to such cyclicality, such as levels of demand, production capacity, production, input costs including raw
material, energy and employee costs, and pricing)
The impact on our business of adverse changes in global economic conditions The Covid-19 pandemic Unanticipated production disruptions (including as a result of planned or unexpected power outages) Changes in environmental, tax and other laws and regulations Adverse changes in the markets for our products The emergence of new technologies and changes in consumer trends including increased preferences for digital media Consequences of our leverage, including as a result of adverse changes in credit markets that affect our ability to raise capital when needed Adverse changes in the political situation and economy in the countries in which we operate or the effect of governmental efforts to address present or future economic or social problems The impact of restructurings, investments, acquisitions, dispositions and other strategic initiatives (including related financing), any delays, unexpected costs or other problems experienced in
connection with dispositions or with integrating acquisitions or implementing restructurings or other strategic initiatives, and achieving expected savings and synergies, and
Currency fluctuations.
We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any of these forward-looking statements, whether to reflect new information or future events or circumstances or otherwise.
Certain non-GAAP financial information is contained in this presentation that management believe may be useful in comparing the company’s operating results from period to period. Reconciliation's of certain of the non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures can be found in the quarterly results booklet for the relevant period. These booklets are available on our website: https://www.sappi.com/quarterly-reports.
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www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items. ** Adjusted covenant leverage ratio
40 80 120 160 200
187 (4) (156) 91 17 (9) 5 131 Q2 FY19 EBITDA Sales volume Price & mix Variable & delivery costs Fixed costs Other Exchange rate Q2 FY20 EBITDA
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US$ million
Notes:
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* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 25 in our Q2 FY20 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items. Data above excludes treasury operations and insurance captive.
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0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 Graphics volume Graphics margin 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 100 150 200 250 300 350 Pack/Spec volume Pack/Spec margin 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 DP volume EBITDA margin
EBITDA* = EBITDA excluding special items
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100 200 300 400 500 600 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2032 US$ million Cash Short-term SPH term debt Securitisation SSA EUR450m bond EUR350m bond US$221m bond
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100 200 300 400 500 600 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E US$ million
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* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 25 in our Q2 FY20 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
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* Volumes up 5% excl. Matane ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 25 in our Q2 FY20 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
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* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 25 in our Q2 FY20 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
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Screening, testing and positive cases Social distancing Deep cleaning of facilities
Change in shift systems, rotational teams Health protocols Change management
Ensuring alignment and support
Condino Mill shut for a week in March Declared an essential service in South
Now matching production to demand Raw material supplies uninterrupted
Negotiated covenant waiver for 12 months (to March 2021) – minimum liquidity requirement Repaid SA bonds with bridging finance
Force majeure on Saiccor expansion project – completion now expected in FY2021
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Restricting stock build Resisting delays in receivables – Overdues remain constant with prior quarters
Differs by region, mostly from May onwards
Daily cash monitoring and weekly cash flow forecasts Invoice and order intake monitoring
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Lower advertising spend and lockdowns resulting in significant retail slowdown causing
Similar impact to 2009 so far, where demand reduced some 30% Declining input costs supporting margins Prices drifting downwards on lower costs – industry operating rates maintained through
Many categories positively affected to date – food and hygiene related products Others negatively impacted by lockdowns - advertising or supply chain related Lower pulp and chemical prices supporting margins
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Retail lockdowns in many geographies have impacted entire textile supply chain
DP demand down approximately 35%, similar to 2009, though duration then was short-lived. Exchange rate movements lowering costs for many producers, DP price trending lower in line
VSF production impacted by lockdowns in some regions – excess capacity remains an issue
BCTMP sales holding up well, and pricing has improved over the last few months
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1.3% 3.1% 4.3% 26.9%
0% 15% 30%
Retail sales % +(-) change in March , month over month
Average retail sales -8.7%
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Maintain a healthy balance sheet Rationalise declining businesses Accelerate growth in higher margin growth segments Achieve cost advantages
Improve
and machine efficiencies Maximise procurement benefits Optimise business processes
Continuously balance paper supply and demand in all regions Where possible convert paper machines to higher margin businesses
Optimise working capital Strong cash generation Smart financing Expand paper packaging grades Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Extract value from our biorefinery stream
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Rationalise declining businesses
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DP and Graphic paper demand expected to be significantly impacted Focus on liquidity and cash flow – various cost savings measures implemented, excess production
Packaging and specialities segment continues to grow and recent conversions will continue to
Saiccor expansion project completion likely only in FY2021 due to force majeure declaration. Annual maintenance shuts shifted as late as possible and capital expenditure for remainder of
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* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 25 in our Q2 FY20 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
201 208 155 221 172 211 155 224 197 187 118 185 139 131 136 145 93 152 105 142 85 148 128 117 48 109 62 52
50 100 150 200 250 US$ million
EBITDA Operating profit ex special items
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* EBITDA is excluding special items. ** The covenant Net debt/LTM EBITDA calculation has adjustments and therefore differs from that shown above. 1,734 1,652 1583 1408 1338 1329 1318 1322 1349 1632 1603 1568 1557 1680 1728 1501 1916 1879 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 US$ million Net debt Net debt/LTM EBITDA**
Sappi Somerset (USA) Sappi Alfeld (Germany) Sappi Tugela (South Africa) Sappi Stockstadt (Germany) Sappi Condino (Italy)
Label Papers, Paperboard, Flexible Packaging Flexible Packaging, Label, Paperboard, Containerboard , Silicone Base Papers, Functional Papers Containerboard Label Papers, Flexible Packaging, Containerboard Flexible Packaging, Silicone Base Papers, Dye Sublimation Paper
Sappi Cloquet (USA) Sappi Maastricht (Netherlands) Sappi Ngodwana (South Africa) Sappi Lanaken (Belgium) Rockwell Dundee (Scotland)
Label Papers Containerboard Paperboard Functional Papers Functional Papers and Flexible Packaging
Sappi Ehingen (Germany)
Containerboard Flexible Packaging, Label Papers, Inkjet Papers, Dye Sublimation Papers
Sappi Carmignano (Italy)
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Extract value from our biorefinery stream Enhance specialised cellulose portfolio Expand paper packaging grades
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Europe
+10k specialities (Various)
North America
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EU Packaging and Specialities
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Label Paper Bag Paper Folding Carton Litho Lamination Food service Board Proto C1S, Spectro C1S Proto Litho LusterFSB LusterPlate Bristols LusterCote LusterPrint Spectro (C1S & C2S)
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400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F Flexpack Label Paperboard Self Adhesives Digital Imaging Functional papers Casting Containerboard Tissue Other 884 887 854 1,009 1,129
Note: The 2020 forecast has not been updated for the impact of Covid-19.
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Product design requires a “designed for recycling” approach Recycling systems to be established and/or heavily expanded Rewards easy to recycle packaging Replacement for paper laminates and aluminum Huge potential for Barrier papers and board Low Carbon footprint is a competitive advantage
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Sources: RISI, Poyry, & Chartic; Premium volume includes a range of premium folding carton from Sappi estimations.
Premium (92 brightness) 400K tons (10%)
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966 992 967 1,000 1,012 44% 36% 37% 37% 37% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 940 950 960 970 980 990 1,000 1,010 1,020 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Market Size (kton) Sappi Market share Sappi Mondi Mpact Corruseal New Era Neopak Other+Import
Includes Cape Kraft and Enstra The above market size includes virgin and recycled containerboard
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700 712 722 735 748 6% 8% 8% 8% 10% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 670 680 690 700 710 720 730 740 750 760 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Market Size (kton) Sappi Market share Sappi Iggesund Stora Fedrigoni Burgo Others
Source: Smithers Pira / Risi / Own estimation
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1,455 1,483 1,512 1,534 1,557 8% 9% 9% 12% 13% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1,400 1,420 1,440 1,460 1,480 1,500 1,520 1,540 1,560 1,580 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Market Size (kton) Sappi Market share Sappi Billerud Mondi Ahlstrom Others
Source: Smithers Pira / Risi / Own estimation Capacity Limit reached
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703 707 711 715 719 2% 2% 3% 5% 6% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 695 700 705 710 715 720 725 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Market Size (kton) Sappi Market share UPM Brigl Sappi Feldmühle Others
Source: Smithers Pira / Risi / Own estimation
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491 502 512 522 533 10% 11% 13% 18% 20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 470 480 490 500 510 520 530 540 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Market Size (kton) Sappi Market share UPM Ahlstrom Sappi Delfort Others
Source: Smithers Pira / Risi / Own estimation Capacity limit reached
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35 40 45 50 58 17% 25% 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
20 30 40 50 60 70 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Market Size (kton) Sappi Market share Sappi Neenah F. Schoeller Beaver Hansol Others
Sappi Neenah
Beaver Hansol Others Source: Smithers Pira / Pöyry / Risi / Own estimation
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* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold. ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 25 in our Q2 FY20 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
Q2 FY20 Q1 FY20 Q2 FY19 Tons sold (‘000) 793 795 842 Sales (EURm) 606 619 675 Price/Ton (EUR) 764 779 802 Cost/Ton* (EUR) 733 737 773 Operating profit excluding special items** (EURm) 25 33 24
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Western Europe shipments including export. Source: Cepifine, Cepiprint and RISI indexed to calendar 1Q 2008. 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 CWF Demand MCR Demand CWF 100gsm Sheets LWC 60gsm offset reels
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* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold. ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 25 in our Q2 FY20 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
Q2 FY20 Q1 FY20 Q2 FY19 Tons sold (‘000) 416 377 350 Sales (USDm) 387 370 378 Price/Ton (USD) 930 981 1,080 Cost/Ton* (USD) 921 979 1,051 Operating profit excluding special items** (USDm) 4 1 10
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US industry purchases defined as industry shipments, plus imports, less exports. Source: AF&PA and RISI indexed to calendar Q1 FY08. 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 Domestic CWF shipments Domestic CWF purchases RISI price CFS #3 60lb rolls
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* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold. ** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 25 in our Q2 FY20 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
Q2 FY20 Q1 FY19 Q2 FY19 Tons sold (‘000) 389 338 418 Sales (ZARm) 3,979 3,549 4,982 Price/Ton (ZAR) 10,229 10,500 11,919 Cost/Ton* (ZAR) 9,404 9,541 9,237 Operating profit excluding special items** (ZARm) 321 324 1,121
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* Source: FOEX, CCF group, RISI. EUR/ton
400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 NBSK Europe (USD) BHKP Europe (USD) Net BHKP China (USD) NBSK Europe (EUR) BHKP Europe (EUR) BCTMP, HW, Imports China (USD)
USD/ton
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* Source: CCF group 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050 1,100
Imp SW DWP Imp HW DWP China origin DWP
US$/ton
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* Source: CCF group
US$/ton
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Cotton 328 Cotton "A" Index PSF 1.4 D VSF 1.2 D VSF 1.5 D
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US$m Q2 FY20 Q1 FY20 Q2 FY19 Cash generated from operations 116 136 182
Movement in working capital (14) (76) (80) Net finance costs paid (18) (35) (21) Finance income received 1 2 1 Taxation (paid) refund (11) (32) (43) Dividend paid
Cash generated from operating activities 74 (5) (53) Cash utilised in investing activities (74) (273) (95)
Capital expenditure (70) (112) (95) Proceeds on disposal of assets
Acquisition of subsidiary
(4) (3) (1)
Net cash generated (utilised)
(148)
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* Refer to page 25 in our Q2 FY20 results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
US$m Q2 FY20 Q1 FY20 Q2 FY19
EBITDA excluding special items* 131 139 187
Depreciation and amortisation (79) (77) (70)
Operating profit excluding special items* 52 62 117 Special items* - gains (losses)
(29) (7)
3 6 10 Acquisition cost
(12) (1)
PPE impairments (11)
PPE impairment reversals
Fire, flood, storm and other events (9) (7) (4)
Operating profit 23 55 117
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