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Q1 2014 Earnings Conference Call May 13, 2014 CONFIDENTIAL - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Q1 2014 Earnings Conference Call May 13, 2014 CONFIDENTIAL Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-looking Statements To the extent any statements made in this presentation contain information that is not historical, these statements are


  1. Q1 2014 Earnings Conference Call May 13, 2014 CONFIDENTIAL

  2. Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-looking Statements To the extent any statements made in this presentation contain information that is not historical, these statements are forward-looking statements or forward-looking information, as applicable, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and under Canadian securities law (collectively “forward -looking statements”) . Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by the use of words such as “should,” “intend,” “may,” “expect,” “believe,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “continue,” “plan,” “project,” “will,” “could,” “would,” “target,” “potential” and other similar expressions. In addition, any statements that refer to expectations, projections or other characterizations of future events or circumstances are forward-looking statements. Although Atlantic Power Corporation (“AT”, “Atlantic Power” or the “Company”) believes that the expectations reflected in such forward- looking statements are reasonable, such statements involve risks and uncertainties and should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results, and undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. Please refer to the factors discussed under “Risk Factors” and “Forward -Looking Information” in the Company’s periodic reports as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time for a detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties affecting the Company. Although the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are based upon what are believed to be reasonable assumptions, investors cannot be assured that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements, and the differences may be material. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this presentation and, except as expressly required by applicable law, the Company assumes no obligation to update or revise them to reflect new events or circumstances. Disclaimer – Non-GAAP Measures Free Cash Flow, Cash Distributions from Projects and APLP Project Adjusted EBITDA are not measures recognized under GAAP and do not have standardized meanings prescribed by GAAP. Free Cash Flow is defined as cash flows from operating activities less capex; project-level debt repayments, including amortization of the new term loan; and distributions to noncontrolling interests, including preferred share dividends. Management believes that Free Cash Flow and Cash Distributions from Projects are relevant supplemental measures of the Company's ability to earn and distribute cash returns to investors. Reconciliations of Free Cash Flow to cash flows from operating activities and of Cash Distributions from Projects to project income (loss) are provided on slide 30 of this presentation. Investors are cautioned that the Company may calculate these measures in a manner that is different from other companies. Project Adjusted EBITDA is defined as project income (loss) plus interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (including non-cash impairment charges) and changes in fair value of derivative instruments. Project Adjusted EBITDA is not a measure recognized under GAAP and is therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies and does not have a standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP. Management uses Project Adjusted EBITDA at the project level to provide comparative information about project performance and believes such information is helpful to investors. A reconciliation of Project Adjusted EBITDA to project income (loss) and a bridge to Cash Distributions from Projects are provided on slide 30 of this presentation. Investors are cautioned that the Company may calculate this measure in a manner that is different from other companies. The Company has not reconciled non-GAAP financial measures relating to individual projects or to the APLP projects to the directly comparable GAAP measures due to the difficulty in making the relevant adjustments on an individual project basis. The Company has not provided a reconciliation of forward-looking non-GAAP measures, because not all of the information necessary for a quantitative reconciliation is available to the Company without unreasonable efforts primarily as a result of the variability and difficulty in making accurate forecasts and projections. All amounts in this presentation are in US$ and approximate unless otherwise stated. 2

  3. Agenda • Recent Developments & Financial Highlights • Operations Update • Commercial Update • Q1 2014 Financial Review • Wrap-Up and Q&A 3

  4. Progress on Financial Priorities • Comprehensive approach taken in first quarter - Took advantage of favorable bank financing conditions - Removed future uncertainty associated with refinancing • Increased financial flexibility and liquidity - Arranged new $210 million revolver with enhanced borrowing capacity ($150 million previously) - Greater flexibility; no requirement for a cash reserve ($75 million previously) - Liquidity at March 31 of $246 million ($184 million at December 31) • Addressed near-term debt maturities and extended debt maturity profile - Redeemed $415 million of debt maturing in 2014, 2015 and 2017 with proceeds from new term loan maturing in 2021 - Only one remaining maturity through March of 2017; intend to repay at October 2014 maturity using cash ($41 million) - New revolver matures in 2018 vs. 2015 previously - Repurchase of $140 million or 30% of 9.0% senior notes due in 2018 • Reduce debt and interest expense over time - Expect $86 million reduction in total debt this year - Term loan amortizes over time; expect approximately 75% to be repaid by maturity - Expect reduction in interest expense beginning in second half of 2014 and further reductions as term loan amortizes 4

  5. Q1 2014 Financial Highlights Cash flow metrics negative for the quarter – three key drivers: 8% decline in Project Adjusted EBITDA - Weather-related impacts: plant outages; biomass fuel issues - Transaction costs ($54 million) o - Continued challenges at Piedmont $49 million included in interest expense and did not affect Project Adjusted EBITDA - Orlando gas swap termination o Q1 Free Cash Flow excluding these costs and $8 million - Translation impact of weaker Cdn$ Piedmont debt repayment would be $11 million + Strong wind at Idaho wind projects - Discontinued operations ($28 million) + Higher PJM power prices benefited Morris o Businesses divested in April 2013 + Gas resale opportunities at Ontario projects - Changes in working capital vs. a year ago ($36 million) + Initial results of optimization o Return of construction-related security deposits in Q1 2013 - Low water levels at Curtis Palmer (not a significant factor y/y, but ($33 million) was below expectations) $89.7 $82.0 $80.3 $74.2 (133)% (157)% (8)% Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 $(28.7) $(46.3) Project Adjusted EBITDA ($ mm) Cash flows from operating activities ($ mm) Free Cash Flow ($ mm) Excludes results from discontinued operations Includes results from discontinued operations Includes results from discontinued operations • Reaffirming 2014 guidance - Project Adjusted EBITDA of $280 to $305 million - Free Cash Flow of $0 to $25 million, excluding costs associated with the refinancing and debt repurchase transactions and Piedmont debt repayment 5

  6. Operating Issues Affected Q1 2014 Results • Extreme weather and forced outages affected results - Availability factor of 93% vs. 96% was below our expectations - Forced outages at Kapuskasing, Tunis, Piedmont, Williams Lake and Canadian Hills - Curtis Palmer generation levels (delayed melting) - Fuel sourcing for biomass projects • Generation increased 11%: Piedmont added in April 2013; favorable performance of Idaho wind projects; increased dispatch at Chambers, Manchief and Frederickson • Wind: Idaho wind businesses more than offset Canadian Hills • Hydro: Below budget, but Curtis Palmer water volumes up 7% in April; added 4 MW at Mamquam • Thermal: Below budget due to outages; working to offset Q1 shortfall; Ontario waste heat levels up in April • Piedmont boiler problem, warranty claim filed, initiated repair strategy Aggregate Power Generation Q1 2014 vs. Q1 2013 (thousands, Net MWh) Weighted Average Availability 2,086 Q1 2014 Q1 2013 1,882 East 94% 97% 11% 1,093 942 West 90% 92% 556 504 438 436 16% 10% 0.3% Wind 93% 98% Total 93% 96% Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 East Total West Wind 6

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