Q1 2010 Results Analyst Presentation Henk van Dalen, CFO 3 May - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Q1 2010 Results Analyst Presentation Henk van Dalen, CFO 3 May - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 26, 2022 574 likes •814 views

Q1 2010 Results Analyst Presentation Henk van Dalen, CFO 3 May 2010 Overall trading conditions continue to improve GROUP Operating income 251 million ( 163 million in Q1 2009); quarter benefited from four extra working days

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Q1 2010 Results

Analyst Presentation Henk van Dalen, CFO 3 May 2010

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Overall trading conditions continue to improve

GROUP

  • Operating income € 251 million (€ 163 million in Q1 2009); quarter

benefited from four extra working days

  • Profit attributable to shareholders € 143 million (€ 76 million in Q1 2009)
  • Net debt stable versus year-end 2009
  • Vision 2015 implementation as per AGM announcement progressing

EXPRESS

  • Development of Express volumes continues to improve
  • Negative year-on-year yield development shows early signs of stabilisation
  • Underlying* operating income € 59 million (€ 23 million in Q1 2009)

MAIL

  • Addressed mail volumes in the Netherlands declined by 9.7% (corrected

for working days and one-off mailings)

  • Good performance improvement Emerging Mail & Parcels
  • Underlying* operating income € 159 million (€ 149 million in Q1 2009)

* The underlying figures are at constant currency and exclude the impact of more working days in 2010 and the impact of various one-off charges in 2009

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Consensus ‘pauses for breath’

Development of forecast consensus GDP growth (%)

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 US 2010E consensus Europe 2010E consensus

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Statement of income

€ millions

Actual Q1 2010 Underlying* Q1 2010 Underlying* Q1 2009 Actual Q1 2009 Revenues 2,747 2,569 2,444 2,444 EBITDA 329 287 248 245 Operating income (EBIT) 251 213 166 163 Net financial (expense) / income (36) (40) Income taxes (71) (47) Effective tax rate 33.0% 38.5% Profit for the period 144 75 EPS (in € cents) 38.6 21.2

* The underlying figures are at constant currency and exclude the impact of more working days in 2010 and the impact of various one-off charges in 2009

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2009 - 2010 impact of one-off charges and fx

€ millions

Q1 2010 Q1 2009 Express Reported EBIT 77 20 Working days (16) Restructuring related costs 3 Fx (2) Underlying EBIT 59 23 Mail Reported EBIT 178 149 Working days (19) Underlying EBIT 159 149

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Express Q1 underlying

Volume growth strong; yield pressure continues Improved year-on-year underlying operating margin Core consignments +6.6% (day-count adj); cost per consignment -5.6%

€ millions Q1 2010* Q1 2009* Organic Acq Total Revenues 1,488 1,364 7.0% 2.1% 9.1% EBITDA 107 75 41.4% 1.3% 42.7% Operating income (EBIT) 59 23 160.8%

  • 4.3%

156.5% Operating margin 4.0% 1.7%

* The underlying figures are at constant currency and exclude the impact of more working days in 2010 and the impact of various one-off charges in 2009

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  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Express 2010 volumes near 2007 levels

Volume development

Core kilos, year-on-year change, in %

Volume development improving, however:

  • Yield pressure
  • Cost inflation

Air Road

Weeks 1, 2 Weeks 3-13 Weeks 1, 2 Weeks 3-13

2010 versus 2009 2010 versus 2007 140% 130% 120% 30% 20% 10% 0%

  • 10%

Core volumes exclude Special Services, Hoau, Mercúrio, Araçatuba and LIT Cargo

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Core revenue quality yield (excluding fuel surcharge)

Year-on-year development at respective FX

Express yield remains negative year-on-year but stabilising

  • 8%
  • 6%
  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2% Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10

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90 92 94 96 98 100 102

Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10

Express yield development

Core revenue quality yield trend (excluding fuel surcharge)

Development rebased to Q1 2007 at respective FX

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Mail Q1 underlying

€ millions Q1 2010* Q1 2009 Org Acq Total Revenues 1,022 1,026

  • 0.2%
  • 0.2%
  • 0.4%

EBITDA 185 176 4.0% 1.1% 5.1% Operating income (EBIT) 159 149 5.4% 1.3% 6.7% Operating margin 15.6% 14.5%

* The underlying figures over 2010 are at constant currency and exclude the impact of more working days in 2010

Four extra working days, good performance Emerging Mail & Parcels Drop in volumes: -9.7% underlying (corrected for working days and

  • ne-off mailings)

Master plan savings € 18 million

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Volume decline -5.7% or

  • 9.7% (corrected for working

days and one-off mailings) Positive mix change – bulk versus single item mail

Mail NL; addressed mail volumes

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  • 12%
  • 10%
  • 8%
  • 6%
  • 4%
  • 2%

0%

Total

Actual 2009 Actual 2010 2010 corrected for working days and

  • ne-off mailings

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

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Positive legal outcome on sector labour agreements

  • Court case Sandd and SelektMail against Ministry of

Economic Affairs

  • Ruling that 3.5 years after liberalisation at least 80% of

employees must have a labour agreement

TNT Post CLA Sandd SelektMail Sector CLA implying agreed average wage per hour Agreement TNT Post Sector CLA + Administrative Decree

Towards level playing field

April 2009 + 3.5 years

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Net cash generated, free cash flow

€ million Q1 2010 Q1 2009 FY 2010 remarks Changes in working capital (176) 6 Working capital outflow Cash generated from operations 79 195 Interest paid (12) (22) Income taxes paid (36) (16) Taxes paid € 300 million, including delayed payment of € 175 million Net cash from operating activities 31 157 Interest received 4 11 Net capex (33) (54) Capex around € 400 million Free cash flow 2 114

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(14) (1,106) 31 (33) (5) (1,127) (1,722)

Net debt development Q1 2010

Net debt € millions

28 Mar 2009 31 Dec 2009 Net cash from

  • perating

activities Net Capex Acquisitions Other 3 Apr 2010

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Dividend 2009 € 0.53 Interim dividend € 0.18 Final dividend € 0.35 In cash In ordinary shares

Premium 2.21% above cash dividend

  • Shareholders who elected a final dividend in shares will receive one

new TNT N.V. ordinary share for every 65 dividend rights

  • 51.9% of outstanding capital has elected for dividend to be paid in stock
  • 48.1% of outstanding capital has elected for dividend to be paid in cash
  • r

+

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Volcanic ash disrupts air traffic over Europe,

  • utstanding performance road networks

Air traffic severely curtailed

Contingency plans put in place relying on a specific road network to replace our air line hauls Priority agreement with Eurotunnel enabled connection to UK Little to no backlogs in TNT locations in Europe, but backlogs experienced outside Europe since there was no alternative to air uplift Extra costs limited

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Growing Emerging Platforms

Third B747-400ERF freighter between Europe and Asia

Operational Q2 2010 Outbound from China utilisation virtually 100% Increased demand for intercontinental service Uplift goods from factories Direct feed into TNT’s networks around the world

Europe Europe Asia Asia

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Initiate an internal carve out of Mail business and develop equity story Obtain clarity on Mail regulatory position on the Universal Service Obligation in the Netherlands Conduct a full review of alternatives for the Mail business to ensure best positioning for company and stakeholders Seek required approvals and advice from various stakeholders

Vision 2015 next steps

Mail DDD

Develop detailed implementation plans for four focus areas Implement growth plans Focus on cost leadership

Group

Assess organisation and structure Optimise overhead

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Outlook 2010

Overall Modestly improving business environment Global economic recovery remains fragile – caution is warranted Focus on costs and cash will continue Express Continuing volume growth with some recovery of weight per consignment and lower cost per consignment Revenues and results expected well above 2009 levels The extent of possible pressure because of price/mix, wage increases and cost inflation will influence the magnitude of the improvement Mail Addressed volume decline in the Netherlands of 7-9% Master plan savings of € 75 million targeted Results expected to be below 2009 levels

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Warning about forward looking statements

Some statements in this presentation are "forward-looking statements". By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and

  • ther factors that are outside of our control and impossible to predict and may

cause actual results to differ materially from any future results expressed or

  • implied. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations,

estimates, forecasts, analyses and projections about the industries in which we

  • perate and management's beliefs and assumptions about future events. You

are cautioned not to put undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which only speak as of the date of this press release and are neither predictions nor guarantees of future events or circumstances. We do not undertake any

  • bligation to release publicly any revisions to these forward-looking statements

to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this press release or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, except as may be required under applicable securities laws.