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Pro-employment macroeconomic frameworks, sectoral strategies for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Pro-employment macroeconomic frameworks, sectoral strategies for employment creation and the informal economy. A knowledge sharing workshop Employment Policy Department, ILO Geneva Geneva, 20-23 September 2011 Macroe Macr oeco cono nomic

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SLIDE 1

1

Macr Macroe

  • eco

cono nomic polic mic policy y for

  • r full

full an and d pr prod

  • duc

uctiv tive e emp emplo loymen yment t and de decent t work for all. r all. An An analysis ysis of th the Ar Argentine tine exp xper erienc ience

Mario Damill, Roberto Frenkel and Roxana Maurizio CEDES

Buenos Aires, Argentina

Pro-employment macroeconomic frameworks, sectoral strategies for employment creation and the informal economy. A knowledge sharing workshop Employment Policy Department, ILO Geneva Geneva, 20-23 September 2011

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SLIDE 2
  • 1. Introduction: A tale of two decades
  • Periods:

2

1981-82: Debt crisis 1 the eighties: "Lost decade" 1989-1990: Two hyperinflations 2 1991-2001: Hard peg ("Convertibility") 2001-2002: Crisis, default, devaluation 2003-2006: New macropolicy setting (SCRER) 3 2006 on: Inflation, weakening of the SCRER model Global crisis

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SLIDE 3

Graph 2.1. Seasonally-adjusted real GDP (in millions of pesos of 1993) and employment rate

3

32 34 36 38 40 42 44

1991 M 1991 O 1992 M 1992 O 1993 M 1993 O 1994 M 1994 O 1995 M 1995 O 1996 M 1996 O 1997 M 1997 O 1998 M 1998 O 1999 M 1999 O 2000 M 2000 O 2001 M 2001 O 2002 M 2002 O 2003 M / S1 2003S2 2004S1 2004S2 2005S1 2005S2 2006S1 2006S2 2007S1 2007S2 2008S1 2008S2 2009S1 2009S2 2010S1

(%) 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 (millions of pesos of 1993)

Employment rate (left axis) GDP (right axis)

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SLIDE 4

2. The Convertibility program and the labor market

4

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SLIDE 5

Graph 2.2. Multilateral real exchange rate (Second semester 1986 = 1).

5

0,4 0,8 1,2 1,6 2 2,4 2,8 3,2 1986Q1 1987Q1 1988Q1 1989Q1 1990Q1 1991Q1 1992Q1 1993Q1 1994Q1 1995Q1 1996Q1 1997Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1

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SLIDE 6

Graph 2.3. Balance of Payments (Four quarters m.a. in millions of dollars)

6

  • 20,000
  • 15,000
  • 10,000
  • 5,000

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 I 1993 I 1994 I 1995 I 1996 I 1997 I 1998 I 1999 I 2000 I 2001 I 2002 I 2003 I 2004 I 2005 I 2006 I 2007 I 2008 Current Account Net Capital Inflows Reserve Variations

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SLIDE 7

Graph 2.5. Primary result of the National Public Sector (% of GDP).

7

  • 3,0
  • 2,0
  • 1,0

0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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SLIDE 8

Graph 2.6. Aggregate financial surpluses by sector (% of GDP)

8

  • 11
  • 7
  • 3

1 5 9 13 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (e)

Public Sector Private Sector External

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SLIDE 9

The labor market in the nineties

Graph 2.8. Average wage and unit labor costs in constant US dollars in the manufactures (first quarter of 1986=100)

9

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1990Q1 1991Q1 1992Q1 1993Q1 1994Q1 1995Q1 1996Q1 1997Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 Wages in constant US dollars Unit labour costs in constant US dollars

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SLIDE 10

Graph 2.10. Labor market indicators: Participation rate, Employment rate, Employment rate excluding PJJHD; full-time employment rate excluding PJJHD (as % of total urban population).

10

24 28 32 36 40 44 48 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 (1) (2) (3) (4)

Unemployment Involuntary underemployment Methodological change >>>

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SLIDE 11

Graph 2.12. Real per capita family income (in pesos of May 1998) .

11

200 240 280 320 360 400 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 23% 1%

  • 31%
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SLIDE 12

Graph 2.13. Gini Indexes of labor incomes (Greater Buenos Aires, May 1991- October 2001)

12

0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 O91 O92 O93 O94 O95 O96 O97 O98 O99 O00 O01 Monthly labour income. Total workers Monthly labour income. Wage earners Hourly labour income. Total workers Hourly labour income. Wage earners

First half of the '90s: Constant trend Second half of the '90s: Growing trend

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SLIDE 13

Graph 2.14. Relationship of the per capita family income between the fifth and first quintiles (Greater Buenos Aires, May 1991- October 2001).

13

12 11 15 16 16 15 16 17 18 20 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 M91 M94 M98 O98 M99 O99 M00 O00 M01 O01

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SLIDE 14

Graph 2.15. Poverty rates (Greater Buenos Aires, May 1991- October 2001).

14

29 22 19 18 18 17 16 19 22 25 27 28 26 26 24 26 27 27 30 29 33 35

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

M91 O91 M92 O92 M93 O93 M94 O94 M95 O95 M96 O96 M97 O97 M98 O98 M99 O99 M00 O00 M01 O01

Individuals Households

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SLIDE 15
  • 3. Macroeconomic policies and the

labor market in the 2000’s A radically new scenario

15

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SLIDE 16

Macroeconomic policies after 2006: the SCRER framework looses coherence

16

Table 3.1 CPI annual rates of inflation (%). Year (%) 2002 41.0 2003 3.7 2004 6.1 2005 12.3 2006 9.8 2007 26.6 2008 23.0 2009 14.8

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SLIDE 17

Graph 3.1. Average country-risk premium for emerging market economies and for Argentina and Brazil (in basis points).

17

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 02/01/2006 02/03/2006 02/05/2006 02/07/2006 02/09/2006 02/11/2006 02/01/2007 02/03/2007 02/05/2007 02/07/2007 02/09/2007 02/11/2007 02/01/2008 02/03/2008 02/05/2008 02/07/2008 02/09/2008 02/11/2008 02/01/2009 02/03/2009 02/05/2009 02/07/2009 02/09/2009 02/11/2009 02/01/2010 02/03/2010 02/05/2010 02/07/2010 02/09/2010 EMBI+ Argentina Brasil

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SLIDE 18

Graph 3.2. External asset accumulation of the non-financial private sector (millions of US dollars).

18

  • 970-728-922
  • 207
  • 672

307

  • 609-440
  • 972

377

  • 165
  • 525-580-729-862
  • 251
  • 4,210
  • 1,850
  • 274
  • 1,299

894 1,419

  • 349
  • 4,778
  • 3,246
  • 1,671
  • 5,440
  • 5,509
  • 8,155
  • 4,727
  • 8,500
  • 7,000
  • 5,500
  • 4,000
  • 2,500
  • 1,000

500 2,000

I 2003 II 2003 III 2003 IV 2003 I 2004 II 2004 III 2004 IV 2004 I 2005 II 2005 III 2005 IV 2005 I 2006 II 2006 III 2006 IV 2006 I 2007 II 2007 III 2007 IV 2007 I 2008 II 2008 III 2008 IV 2008 I 2009 II 2009 III 2009 IV 2009 I 2010 II 2010

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SLIDE 19

Graph 3.4. Fiscal impulse (% of GDP)

19

  • 2,0%
  • 1,5%
  • 1,0%
  • 0,5%

0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% mar-04 jul-04 nov-04 mar-05 jul-05 nov-05 mar-06 jul-06 nov-06 mar-07 jul-07 nov-07 mar-08 jul-08 nov-08 mar-09 jul-09 nov-09 mar-10 jul-10

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SLIDE 20

Graph 3.5. Stock of foreign reserves of the Central Bank (billion dollars).

20

49.229

50.039 45.193

4.000 8.000 12.000 16.000 20.000 24.000 28.000 32.000 36.000 40.000 44.000 48.000 52.000

I 2003 II 2003 III 2003 IV 2003 I 2004 II 2004 III 2004 IV 2004 I 2005 II 2005 III 2005 IV 2005 I 2006 II 2006 III 2006 IV 2006 I 2007 II 2007 III 2007 IV 2007 I 2008 II 2008 III 2008 IV 2008 I 2009 II 2009 III 2009 IV 2009 I 2010 II 2010

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SLIDE 21

Graph 3.6. Multilateral real exchange rate and real exchange rate with the US dollar (December 2001=100).

21

100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 Dic-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dic-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dic-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dic-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dic-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dic-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dic-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dic-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dic-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 RER (US dollar) RER (multilateral)

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SLIDE 22

Graph 3.7. Evolution of monetary aggregates in real terms.

22 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Ene-02 Abr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Ene-03 Abr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Ene-04 Abr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Ene-05 Abr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Ene-06 Abr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Ene-07 Abr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Ene-08 Abr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Ene-09 Abr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Ene-10 Abr-10 Jul-10

Monetary Base LEBAC & NOBAC Passive Swaps

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SLIDE 23

Employment, unemployment, wages and income distribution in the 2000’s

23

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SLIDE 24

Graph 3.8. Employment rate (with and without employment programs).Total urban centers, May 1991-II semester 2010.

24

30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44

1991 M 1991 O 1992 M 1992 O 1993 M 1993 O 1994 M 1994 O 1995 M 1995 O 1996 M 1996 O 1997 M 1997 O 1998 M 1998 O 1999 M 1999 O 2000 M 2000 O 2001 M 2001 O 2002 M 2002 O 2003 M / S1 2003S2 2004S1 2004S2 2005S1 2005S2 2006S1 2006S2 2007S1 2007S2 2008S1 2008S2 2009S1 2009S2 2010S1

Employment rate Employment rate without employment programs

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SLIDE 25

Graph 3.9. Employment and Full-time Employment rates. Total urban centers, I quarter 2003-II quarter 2010

25

24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 2003 1 2003 2 2003 3 2003 4 2004 1 2004 2 2004 3 2004 4 2005 1 2005 2 2005 3 2005 4 2006 1 2006 2 2006 3 2006 4 2007 1 2007 2 2007 4 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3 2009 4 2010 1 2010 2 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93

Full Employment /Total Employment (right axis) Employment rate Full Employment rate

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SLIDE 26

Graph 3.10. Unemployment rate. Total urban centers, October 1995-II quarter 2010.

26

5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

O95 M96 O96 M97 O97 M98 O98 M99 O99 M00 O00 M01 O01 M02 O02 M03/ 2003 2 2003 3 2003 4 2004 1 2004 2 2004 3 2004 4 2005 1 2005 2 2005 3 2005 4 2006 1 2006 2 2006 3 2006 4 2007 1 2007 2 2007 4 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3 2009 4 2010 1 2010 2

Semi-Annual EPH Continuous EPH

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SLIDE 27

Graph 3.12. Employment by occupational category and their trends. Total urban centers, III quarter 2003-II quarter 2010 (III quarter 2003=100).

27

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 REGISTERED TREND_REGISTERED NONREGISTERED TREND_NONREGIST 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 OWNACCOUNT TREND_OWNACCOUNT EMPLOYER TREND_EMPLOYER

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SLIDE 28

Graph 3.13. Percentage of non-registered wage earners in total wage

  • earners. Total urban centers, III quarter 2003-II quarter 2010

28

33 34.5 36 37.5 39 40.5 42 43.5 45

O95 M96 O96 M97 O97 M98 O98 M99 O99 M00 O00 M01 O01 M02 O02 M03 2003 3 2003 4 2004 1 2004 2 2004 3 2004 4 2005 1 2005 2 2005 3 2005 4 2006 1 2006 2 2006 3 2006 4 2007 1 2007 2 2007 4 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3 2009 4 2010 1 2010 2

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SLIDE 29

Graph 3.15. Inter-annual real GDP and private jobs registered in the Social Security System growth (2003-2010, %).

29

  • 9
  • 6
  • 3

3 6 9 12 15 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Private sector jobs GDP

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SLIDE 30

Graph 3.16. Employment rate by educational level. Total urban centers, III quarter 2003-II quarter 2010 (III quarter 2003=100)

30

90 100 110 120 130 140 150

2003 3 2003 4 2004 1 2004 2 2004 3 2004 4 2005 1 2005 2 2005 3 2005 4 2006 1 2006 2 2006 3 2006 4 2007 1 2007 2 2007 4 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3 2009 4 2010 1 2010 2

Incomplete secondary or less Comp.Secondary / Incomp. University Complete University

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SLIDE 31

Graph 3.17. Employment and physical output in manufacturing sector I quarter 1990-II quarter 2010 (1997=100).

31

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140

I-90 III-90 I-91 III-91 I-92 III-92 I-93 III-93 I-94 III-94 I-95 III-95 I-96 III-96 I-97 III-97 I-98 III-98 I-99 III-99 I-00 III-00 I-01 III-01 I-02 III-02 I-03 III-03 I-04 III-04 I-05 III-05 I-06 III-06 I-07 III-07 I-08 III-08 I-09 III-09 I-10

Employment Physical Output

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SLIDE 32

Graph 3.18. Real income from main occupation. Excludes employment

  • programs. Total urban centers, October 1995- II quarter 2010

(Index October 2001=100, deflated by CPI and CPI-7)

32

60 70 80 90 100 110 120

O95 M96 O96 M97 O97 M98 O98 M99 O99 M00 O00 M01 O01 M02 O02 M03 2003 3 2003 4 2004 1 2004 2 2004 3 2004 4 2005 1 2005 2 2005 3 2005 4 2006 1 2006 2 2006 3 2006 4 2007 1 2007 2 2007 4 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3 2009 4 2010 1 2010 2

  • 30%

+34% 0.1%

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SLIDE 33

Graph 3.19. Real wages from main occupation of registered and non- registered wage earners. Excludes employment programs Total urban centers, October 1995- II quarter 2010 (Index October 2001=100, deflated by CPI and CPI-7)

33

60 70 80 90 100 110 120

O95 M96 O96 M97 O97 M98 O98 M99 O99 M00 O00 M01 O01 M02 O02 M03 2003 3 2003 4 2004 1 2004 2 2004 3 2004 4 2005 1 2005 2 2005 3 2005 4 2006 1 2006 2 2006 3 2006 4 2007 1 2007 2 2007 4 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3 2009 4 2010 1 2010 2

Total employment Registered wage earners Non-registered wage earners

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SLIDE 34

Graph 3.20. Real Minimum Wage, 1995-2010 (in pesos of August 2010, deflated by CPI and CPI-7)

34

400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

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SLIDE 35

Graph 3.22. Real Per Capita Family Income. Total urban centers, October 1995- II quarter 2010 (Index October 2001=100, deflated by CPI and CPI-7).

35

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

O95 M96 O96 M97 O97 M98 O98 M99 O99 M00 O00 M01 O01 M02 O02 M03 2003 3 2003 4 2004 1 2004 2 2004 3 2004 4 2005 1 2005 2 2005 3 2005 4 2006 1 2006 2 2006 3 2006 4 2007 1 2007 2 2007 4 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3 2009 4 2010 1 2010 2

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SLIDE 36

Graph 3.23. Gini Index of Family Income. Total urban centers, October 1995- II quarter 2010.

36

0.380 0.400 0.420 0.440 0.460 0.480 0.500 0.520 0.540 0.560 0.580

O95 M96 O96 M97 O97 M98 O98 M99 O99 M00 O00 M01 O01 M02 O02 M03 2003 3 2003 4 2004 1 2004 2 2004 3 2004 4 2005 1 2005 2 2005 3 2005 4 2006 1 2006 2 2006 3 2006 4 2007 1 2007 2 2007 4 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3 2009 4 2010 1 2010 2

Per Capita Family Income Total Family Income

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SLIDE 37

Graph 3.24. Poverty in households and individuals. Total urban centers, May 2001-I semester 2010.

37

35.9 38.3 53.0 57.5 54.7 49.9 47.9 42.2 40.4 35.6 32.9 28.3 26.5 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.0 23.3 26.2 28.0 41.4 45.7 42.6 38.8 37.7 31.4 30.2 26.1 24.3 20.2 18.8 18.0 17.7 18.0 17.5 16.3

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

M01 O01 M02 O02 M03 2003 II 20034 I 2004 II 2005 I 2005 II 2006 I 2006 II 2007 I 2008 I 2008 II 2009 I 2009 II 2010 I

Individuals Households

  • 48%
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SLIDE 38

Graph 3.25. Extreme Poverty in households and individuals. Total urban centers, May 2001-I semester 2010.

38

11.6 13.6 24.8 27.5 26.3 21.9 20.1 16.3 14.7 13.0 11.9 9.3 8.5 8.2 7.7 7.7 7.2 6.6 8.3 9.4 18.0 19.5 17.9 16.755 15.96 11.66 10.415 9.045 8.58 6.685 6.095 5.715 5.38 5.495 5.335 4.865

4 8 12 16 20 24 28 M01 O01 M02 O02 M03 2003 II 20034 I 2004 II 2005 I 2005 II 2006 I 2006 II 2007 I 2008 I 2008 II 2009 I 2009 II 2010 I Individuals Households

  • 65%