Principal Investigator: Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Lead Investigator: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Principal Investigator: Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Lead Investigator: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 28, 2023 230 likes •1.41k views

Principal Investigator: Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Lead Investigator: Javier Oyakawa, M.A., M.Sc. Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Research Director Institute for Economic Development The University of Texas at San Antonio thomas.tunstall@utsa.edu

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Principal Investigator: Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Lead Investigator: Javier Oyakawa, M.A., M.Sc.

Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Research Director Institute for Economic Development The University of Texas at San Antonio thomas.tunstall@utsa.edu

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University of Texas at San Antonio Institute for Economic Development

Eagle Ford Shale Community Development Program (21 Counties in South Texas) Small Business Development Centers - SBDC (79 Counties in South, West and Central Texas) Rural Business Program (79 Counties in South Texas) Procurement Technical Assistance Center (Texas)

JP Morgan Chase Veteran's Program (Texas)

Southwest Trade Adjustment Assistance Center (TX, OK, LA) SBDC National Information Clearinghouse (National) Minority Business Center (National) Community and Business Research (National, Int’l) International Trade Center (Mexico, Central/South America, Caribbean, North Africa)

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UTSA Institute for Economic Development

Research at the Institute focuses on research projects that help business and policymakers plan for a dynamic future: Economic Impact Studies Community Development Studies (I-35, SH 130) EB-5 Immigrant Investor Regional Center Impact Studies Analysis on Various Topics:

Eagle Ford Shale San Antonio Missions South Texas Medical Center University of Texas System Targeted Industry Recruitment / Workforce Analysis Repurposing of Military Bases for Commercial Use

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UTSA Institute for Economic Development

As the Research Arm of UTSA’s Institute for Economic Development we are dedicated to serving: Economic development corporations (e.g., SA EDF) City, state and federal governments Workforce development boards Businesses Associations Other community stakeholders

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In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; in practice, there is.

  • Yogi Berra

UTSA has become the preeminent authority

  • n economic development extension
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History doesn’t repeat itself. But it does rhyme.

Mark Twain

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UTSA – Emerging Tier 1 University

California: 9 Tier 1 Universities

(Population 38 Million) 1. Stanford University (1900) 2. University of California, Berkeley (1900) 3. California Institute of Technology (1934) 4. University of Southern California (1969) 5. University of California, Los Angeles (1974) 6. University of California, San Diego (1982) 7. University of California, Santa Barbara (1995) 8. University of California, Davis (1996) 9. University of California, Irvine (1996)

New York: 6 Tier 1 Universities

(Population 19 Million) 1. Columbia University (1900) 2. Cornell University (1900) 3. University of Rochester (1941) 4. New York University (1950) 5. University at Buffalo, The State University of New York (1989) 6. Stony Brook University-The State University of New York (2001)

Texas: Only 3 Tier 1 Universities

(Population 27 Million) 1. University of Texas at Austin (1929) 2. Rice University (1985) 3. Texas A&M University (2001)

(62 Total AAU Members in U.S.)

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Some of the key features of the 2017 San Antonio Bond Program include:

  • The $850 Million Bond program will not require a City Property Tax Rate
  • 70% of the Bond dollars will be dedicated to street and drainage infrastructure projects
  • The program includes over 200 planned miles of new sidewalk construction
  • The Parks Proposition will improve 25% of our City's parks
  • Through coordination with state, local and private partnerships, the City will leverage $350

million in outside funding within 37 of the Bond Program projects

  • Only 20% of the $850 Million Bond Program is for Downtown specific projects, over 80%, or

$680 million of the Bond is for Council District Projects

  • The 180 projects selected align with 11 Guiding Principles and the City's SA Tomorrow

Growth Plan (Guiding Principles include investing in Major Corridors and Increasing Connectivity)

  • There is a planned 2017 Bond Program project within one mile of where a San Antonio

residents lives or works

  • The City has the highest credit rating available ("AAA") which allows the borrowing of money

at the lowest interest rates possible putting more property tax dollars into infrastructure projects

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Counties Included in Study Area

Producing Counties: – Atascosa – Bee – DeWitt – Dimmit – Frio – Gonzales – Karnes – La Salle – Lavaca – Live Oak – Maverick – McMullen – Webb – Wilson – Zavala Adjacent Counties: – Bexar – Jim Wells – Nueces – San Patricio – Uvalde – Victoria

Counties not included in the analysis are Leon, Milam, Brazos, Burleson, Lee, Fayette, Lavaca, Edwards, Houston, and Wood

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Eagle Ford Economic Reports

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Economic Impact Since 2010

$2.9 $25.0 $61.2 $87.8

$- $10.0 $20.0 $30.0 $40.0 $50.0 $60.0 $70.0 $80.0 $90.0 $100.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Economic Impact (billions)

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Employment Since 2010

12,601 47,097 116,508 154,984

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Job Supported

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How Much Oil and Condensate Has Eagle Ford Produced To-Date?

2,130,511,010 Barrels

(over 2 billion barrels)

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Texas Oil Production Surpassed 1988 Levels in September 2012

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If OPEC does continue the oil production cuts, the biggest beneficiaries will be in Texas and not the Persian Gulf.

Heard on the Street Wall Street Journal May 12, 2017

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How Many Companies Does It Take to Produce 75% Oil Output?

U.S. – 77 (similar numbers for the UK and Canada) Russia – 4 China – 3 Brazil – 1 In Saudi Arabia, Iran, Mexico and Kuwait

  • ne state producer accounts for nearly 100%
  • f total output

U.S. is now the world’s swing producer. OPEC’s New Revelation: There is No Minister of Shale!

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20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Crude Oil U.S. Imports from OPEC Countries (000 Barrels)

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2013 – 660 billion cf 2014 – 730 billion cf 2015 – >1 trillion cf

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Total Economic Output Impact in 2013 21-County Study Region

  • Over $87 billion in economic output (up from $61B in 2012

and $25B in 2011)

  • Over 154,000 full-time jobs supported (up from 116,000 in

2012 and 47,097 in 2011)

  • Over $5.6 billion in salaries and benefits paid to workers

(up from $4.7B in 2012 and $3.1B in 2011)

  • Over $42 billion in gross regional product (up from $28B in

2012 and $12.63B in 2011)

  • Over $2.2 billion in state revenues (up from $1.2B in 2012

and $358 million in 2011)

  • Over $2.2 billion in local government revenues (up from

$1B in 2012 and $257 million in 2011)

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Moderate Scenario Estimated Combined Impacts for 2023 (21-County Area)

  • More than $137 billion in total economic output

(at $65/bbl: $48-68 billion)

  • 196,660 full-time jobs supported

(at $65/bbl: 72,000-101,000 full-time jobs supported)

  • $12 billion in salaries and benefits paid
  • $72 billion in gross regional product
  • $4 billion in state revenues
  • $4 billion in local government revenues
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Changchun, Northeast China – August 2013

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Wireframe glimpse of the Shah Deniz 2 platforms in Azerbaijan

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  • 328 Standards in the oil and gas industry just for valves.
  • Shale E&P companies use standardized, interchangeable parts.

Source: IHS

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New and Expanded Rail Projects in the Eagle Ford

Rail can move ONE ton 500 miles on ONE gallon of fuel

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Gardendale Railroad 2009- La Salle County Status : Abandoned

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Gardendale Railroad-2013 La Salle County

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Gardendale Rail Spur near Cotulla

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Port of Corpus Christi TODAY

OXYCHEM DUPONT KIEWIT SHERWIN ALUMINA NUSTAR OXY INGLESIDE TOPAZ POWER GROUP TRAFIGURA VALERO ELEMENTIS CITGO EAST ADM GRAIN ELEVATOR AIR LIQUIDE MARKWEST JAVELINA CELANESE BISHOP, TX INTERSTATE GRAIN AEP TEXAS BTB REFINING LYONDELLBASELL CITGO WEST FLINT HILLS MAGELLAN GULF MARINE FABRICATORS FLINT HILLS INGLESIDE MARTIN MIDSTREAM GULF COMPRESS

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Why Do We Have a Global Oil Market?

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The Shape of Things to Come

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Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, 2007.

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Oil Price Prediction Hall of Fame

Why Oil Prices Won’t Fall Below $100 a Barrel

Chad Shoop, The Sovereign Investor Daily - September 1, 2014

Oil won’t drop below $100 in 2014, Iran says

Mohsen Qamsari, director for international affairs at the National Iranian Oil Company – May 24, 2014

Oil prices won’t fall below $100

Petroleum Policy Intelligence – July 23, 2012

OPEC Won't Let Crude Oil Fall Below $100

Rafael Correa, President of Ecuador – September 27, 2008

Oil prices won't drop below $100

Yusuf bin Ahmed Kanoo group managing director Khalid Mohammed Kanoo – May 27, 2008

Pickens says oil won't go below $100

August 14, 2008

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“The oil price drop came as a surprise. It captured my country in a state in which we were not sufficiently diversified.”

Angolan Finance Minister Armando Manuel IMF Annual Meetings October 6-11, 2015 Lima Peru

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Medium-Long Term Strategies for Success

  • Look for Opportunities to Diversify the Local Economy

(Destination Locations)

  • Rediscover Your Community’s History and Architecture

as a Tool for Economic Development (Why was the City Founded in the First Place?)

  • Seize the Opportunity to Implement Form-Based

Zoning That Emphasizes Mixed-Use, Flexibility, Livability and Sustainability

  • Forge Linkages, Alliances and Engage Other EFS

Communities, Higher Education Institutions

  • Identify Best Practices from Other Shale Plays
  • Work with Elected Representatives at the Municipal,

County, State and National Levels on Infrastructure Planning

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Looking Beyond Eagle Ford: Basics of Sustainable Infrastructure

(Key to Attracting New Residents, Visitors and Industry)

  • Better Roadways
  • Improved Medical Facilities
  • Broadband Networks
  • More Housing Options
  • Adequate Water and Power Supply, Improved Waste

Management

  • Better Quality K-12 and Vocational Education
  • Improved Aesthetics, Elimination of Blight, Land Recycling

(Bulldozing Derelict Houses, Cleaning Up Junkyards; Renovation and/or Repurposing of Historical Buildings)

  • Branding: Identity, Gateways
  • Livability: Public Amenities that Improve the Desirability of the

Community and Quality of Life (Lakes, Parks, Hike/Bike Trails, Walk-

able Neighborhoods)

Why would someone want to live in or visit your community?

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S

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Strong Towns contributor Andrew Price has argued this kind of

  • verengineering is better called a "fat street."
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Examples of Why Public Spaces Fail

  • Designed to be looked-at, not touched

(neat, clean and empty)

  • Lack of good places to sit
  • Lack of gathering points
  • Poor entrances or visually inaccessible
  • Domination of space by vehicles
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Lack of places to sit; lack of GOOD places to sit

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Lack of Gathering Points

Paris’ Parc de la Villette Laguna Beach along Pacific Coast Highway

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Poor Entrances and Visually Inaccessible Places

New York City’s Bryant Park (before and after)

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George Street in Sydney, Australia Paris, France

Domination of Space by Vehicles

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Blank Walls or Dead Zones Around the Edges of a Place

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Inconveniently Located Transit Stops

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Paths That Go Where People Don’t Want to Go

Phoenix, Arizona Luxembourg Gardens in Paris

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The Future Ain’t What It Used To Be

  • Yogi Berra
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“We have the greatest history of any state in the union—there’s nothing to compare to it. That’s not Texas

  • brag. More books have been written

about Texas than any state in the

  • union. In fact, there are more books

about Texas than all the rest of the states combined. And it’s not because we have so many history professors in Texas. It’s that we have such a diverse and colorful history.”

James Perry Bryan, Jr. from Texas Monthly August 2015

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Thank you!

Eagle Ford Shale and the Economy

May 2017

Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Research Director UTSA Institute for Economic Development thomas.tunstall@utsa.edu

Principal Investigator: Thomas Tunstall, Ph.D. Lead Investigator: Javier Oyakawa, M.A., M.Sc.

Researchers: Gina Conti, Maricela Diaz-Wells, Jason Hernandez, Yongsun Lee, Vincent Loeffelholz, Neeraj Ravi, John Rodriguez, Feihua Teng, Carelli Torres, Binbin Wang, John Zhang

GIS Specialist: Hisham Eid