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WEATHER OUTLOOK 2015 PRESENTED BY World Weather, Inc. WEBSITE -- http://www.worldweather.cc Telephone: 913-383-1161 EMAIL ------ worldweather@bizkc.rr.com Fax Number: 913-383-1198 A Record Wet Summer In
WEBSITE -- http://www.worldweather.cc Telephone: 913-383-1161 EMAIL ------ worldweather@bizkc.rr.com Fax Number: 913-383-1198
A Record Wet Summer In Saskatchewan And Parts Of Western Manitoba Will Be Remembered Along With Several Other Wet Years In This Current Decade. When Will It Stop Raining? What About Northern Alberta And The Peace River Region?
Abundant Precipitation In The Western And Central Parts Of The Prairies In November And Again During February Left Some Of Those Areas With A Bit Of A Wetter Biased
Impact Manitoba Which Stayed Persistently Drier Biased During The Season. Some Areas In Southern Manitoba Were Ranked Driest For The Winter So Far Relative To The Other 66 Years Of Data From Environment
The Prairies Were Experiencing Very Good Weather With A Very Low Risk Of Flooding This Spring. The Wetter Areas In Northwestern And North-Central Saskatchewan May Experience Some Significant Runoff For A Little While During The Spring, But Most Areas Should Dry Down Quickly.
Soil Conditions Are Rated Favorably Across Most Of The Prairies. Top And Subsoil Moisture Is Adequate In Most Areas With A Little Bit Of Surplus Moisture In Alberta’s Beaverlodge Region. The Lighter Green Areas Noted On These Maps Suggest Areas That May Be First To Dry Down In The Spring Season If There Is No Greater Precipitation In The Next Few Weeks Than That Reported So Far This Winter. If Spring Arrives And Soil Moisture Is Not Much Greater Than It Is Now Crops Will Likely Be Planted A Little More Aggressively Than Usual Depending On Spring Temperatures. The Colder Biased Temperatures Are In The Spring The Longer Producers Will Have To Wait To Get Into The Fields For Planting. Very Little Surplus Soil Moisture Is Expected.
Weather Data Provided By Environment Canada Presentation of Actual Snow Depths Provided By Weather Network
The 18-year Cycle Will Perpetuate Status Quo Conditions Across North America Over The Next Few Weeks. There Will Be A Quasi Permanent Feature Of High Pressure Aloft Over The Western Most Parts Of North America. A Prevailing LRC Cycle Promoting A Repeating Pattern Of 56 Days Will See To It That The Recent Warmer Than Usual Conditions Will End in February as Change Toward Cooler Weather Is Expected In Mid- To Late February And March, But The Coldest Air Will Be A Little Further To The East Than That Of Earlier This Season So That A Larger Part Of Manitoba And Ontario Are Impacted While Western Saskatchewan And Alberta Stay A Little Warmer Biased. Precipitation, Even Though It May Occur A Little More Often At Times Some Areas Will Not Be Very Wet. The Environment Will Perpetuate A Below Average Spring Runoff Potential In Many Areas And Some Potential For Quick Spring Planting With The Exception Of Cool Soil Temperatures In The East And Some Late Season Cold Weather.
7-Day Average Centered on March 4, 2015
NOAA
El Nino-Like Conditions Are Prevailing. There Is Still Considerable Debate As To Whether A Full Blown El Nino Event Will Occur In 2015 Or Not. Certainly Predictions For El Nino Over The Past Year Have Failed To Verify.
NOAA
Does This Pattern Look Familiar? It Should. It Is The Same Pattern Shown On The Previous 18-Year Weather Pattern Chart. We Can Make This Easier To See By Adding The Isoheight Lines That We Typically Use For Upper Air Flow Patterns Aloft.
These Yellow Lines Suggest The Pattern El Nino Generates Is The Same Pattern That Is Being Advertised In The 18-year Cycle Charts. Having Both Of These Patterns Agree Results In A Strong Signal For Winter Weather And Confidence Will Be Above Average This Year For Winter Weather Because Of These Two Coincidental Patterns.
April and May 1961 April and May 1979 April and May 1997 June Through August 1961 June Through August 1979 June Through August 1997
December – February Average Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies For The Five Driest Years In Canada Average Palmer Drought Index Values For The Five Driest Years In Canada
A Research Paper By Shabbar And Skinner In 2004 Entitled ‘Summer Drought Patterns In Canada And The Relationship To Global Sea Surface Temperatures’ Suggests Sea Surface Temperatures In The December Through February Period Can Be Early Predictor Of Summer Drought
Excepting The North-Central Atlantic Ocean, Today’s Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Are A Very Close Match To Those Required For The Dry Summer Signal In Western Canada
1961 Ranked 1st Driest Summer ::: Ranked 1st Hottest Summer Out of 65 Yrs 1979 Ranked 4th Driest Summer ::: Ranked 24th Hottest Summer Out of 65 Yrs 1997 Ranked 17th Driest Summer ::: Ranked 14th Hottest Summer Out of 65 Yrs 1961 Ranked 14th Driest Spring ::: Ranked 33rd Warmest Spring Out of 65 Yrs 1979 Ranked 18th Wettest Spring ::: Ranked 10th Coolest Spring Out of 65 Yrs 1997 Ranked 28th Wettest Spring ::: Ranked 17th Coolest Spring Out of 65 Yrs 1961 Ranked 37th Wettest Autumn ::: Ranked 15th Warmest Autumn out of 64 Yrs 1979 Ranked 12th Driest Autumn ::: Ranked 21st Warmest Autumn out of 64 Yrs 1997 Ranked 10th Driest Autumn ::: Ranked 20th Warmest Autumn out of 64 Yrs * * * *
Neutral ENSO Conditions Until May 1997 when El Nino Developed All Other Years Were Neutral ENSO All Year Long
March Weather Will Be Mixed Once Again With Pattern Changes Expected About Every Ten Days. On Average, The Month Will Be Warmer Biased In The West And South And Below Average Precipitation From Southern Alberta Into Southern
Prairies Will Have A Slightly Wetter Biased Conditions. The Only Cooler Biased Conditions For The Entire Month Will Be In The Northeast. There Will Be Short Term Blasts Of Colder Air Moving Through The Prairies From Time To Time, But The Warmth Will Be More Dominating.
Weather This Spring And Summer Will Be Mixed In Quite A Few Areas And There Is Going To Be A Mixed Impact On
West-Central And Northwestern Saskatchewan And East-central And Northeastern Alberta Where Dryness May Be Around In Both Spring And Summer With High Pressure Prevailing Aloft To Keep Temperatures Warm, Humidity Low And Precipitation Lighter Than Usual. The Southeastern Prairies Will Moisten Up In The Spring After A Rather Dry Winter And Low Snow Melt Runoff. The Moisture Boost Will Slow Fieldwork During Planting And Worry About Another Wet Year May Evolve, But Progressively Drier Conditions Will Occur During The Summer Changing Those Worries. Western Alberta And “Possibly” Northeastern Saskatchewan Weather Will Be A Little More Favorable
Authors: Santiago Begueria, Borja Latorre, Fergus Reig, Sergio M. Vincente-Serrano
El Nino-like Conditions Will Continue Over The Next Few Weeks, But There Is Still Some Potential That A More Significant El Nino Event May Evolve Later In 2015. That Places Southeastern Asia On A Watch List Until El Nino Like Conditions Disappear Entirely. Drought Conditions In Australia, Ukraine, Russia, Northeastern China And The Southwestern United States Will Be Eased This Spring, But A Multi-year Drought Will Continue In Northeastern Brazil And May Linger Into The Autumn In Parts Of Chile.
Percent of Normal Precipitation Over The Past 30, 60, 90 And 120 Days Has Been Mostly Unchanging Indicating A Stagnant Weather Pattern. The Most Recent Precipitation Anomaly In The Northern And Western Midwest Is A Growing Concern Since The Upper Parts Of The Midwest Should Stay Out Of The Wetter Biased Pattern For An Extended Period Of Time. Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Wisconsin, Northern Illinois And Michigan Will Need Significant Moisture This Spring To Assure Dryness Does Not Become An Issue.
Texas Water Reservoir Levels As A Percent Of Capacity On March 8, 2015 Despite Improvements In Texas Rainfall During 2014 Water Storage Is Still Very Low Keeping Concern Running High That Dryness Might Return. California’s Water Supply Is No Better And It Will Have To Wait Until Next Month Before There Is Another Good Chance For Rain.
96.2%
90.2%
39.3% 5.2% 31.9% 67.6% 32.7% 44.8% 91.7%
February 20, 2015
March Will Be Dominated By Some Lingering Dryness In The Eastern U.S. And By A New Region Of Cooler Biased Conditions In The Southwestern United States. Warmer Than Usual Conditions Will Come Back Across Canada And The Northern And Central United States. However, There Will Be Some Returning Colder Biases In Canada At
Will Continue From The Pacific Northwest Through The Northern U.S. Plains To The Northern Midwest While The Southern States Are Wetter Than Usual.
Early Spring Will Be An Active Period For Weather In The Southern Plains Delta, Tennessee River Basin and Interior Southeastern States And There May Be Some Planting Delays Because OF Frequent Rainfall. The Northern Plains Will Dry Down A Little Earlier Than Usual This Year Due To Low Snow Depths And A Warmer Bias For A Little While In The Spring. Planting In The Northern Plains Will Advance Aggressively As The Region Begins To Dry Down. Dryness May Become A Bigger Issue In The Northern Plains And Canada’s Prairies This Summer While Conditions In Most Of The Midwest And A Part Of The Great Plains Will Be Favorably
Are Expected. Dryness Could Be More Widespread In The Plains This Summer If Sufficient Rain Fails To Evolve This Spring.
Weather Conditions Will Change Frequently During The Next Few Weeks. Argentina May Begin Seeing Less Frequent And Less Significant Rain As Time Moves Along While Brazil Gets A Good Mix Of Rain And
Concern Over Summer Production From South America. Despite The Recent Weather Anomalies, Brazil, Argentina And Uruguay Will Produce Large Crops.
Well-Timed Rainfall Is Expected In Brazil During The Next Two Weeks. There Is Some Potential For Dryness To Evolve And Expand In Argentina And Uruguay, But Brazil Should See A Mostly Favorable Crop Development Environment With Temperatures Seasonable. Some Brazil Harvest Delay Is Likely Because Of Wet Weather.
Most Of Europe Is Plenty Moist. A Boost In Precipitation Is Needed In Spain And Portugal, But Unlikely For At Least Another
Prevailed In Central And Eastern Spain In Recent Weeks. Flood Potentials Are High In Northwestern, Central And Southeastern Parts Of Europe Where Additional Precipitation Over Already Saturated Ground May Lead To Some Standing Water Issues In A Few Production
Significant Rain Would Be Welcome For A While And That Is Exactly What Is Predicted For The Coming Week.
Dryness Seriously Threatened Wheat And Rye Across Southwestern Russia And Ukraine During The Planting Season Last Autumn. Crops Were Not Well Established And Winterkill Occurred In November And December As Bitter Cold Conditions Reached Into The Region While Snow Cover Was Minimal. Since Then, Conditions Have Improved With Greater Snow Cover And Some Improved Topsoil Moisture. There is Potential For Further Improvement In The Spring As Snow Melts And Weather Patterns Evolve. The Spring And Summer Will Produce Timely Precipitation To Prevent Dryness From Returning And Threatening Production In 2015
Percent Of Normal Rainfall For October 1 - 17, 2014 Percent Of Normal Rainfall For September 2014
Lingering El Nino Like Conditions May Occur This Autumn And If That Is The Case Rainfall May Be A Little More Frequent Than Usual In Some Areas Of The Interior East. The West Will Be Near To Slightly Drier Than Usual And Temperatures May Be A Little Warm. The Coolest Conditions Will Prevail In Eastern Australia. In General, The Planting Environment For 2015-16 Crops Is Expected To Be Relatively Good.
Spring Weather Will Be A Little Wetter Biased In East-central China While A Little Drier Than Usual In The Northeast – Outside Of Heilongjiang. The Drier Bias Will Maintain Some Concern Over Soil Conditions In The Lingering Drought Areas Of Liaoning, North Korea, Hebei, Northern Jilin And Neighboring Inner Mongolia. Southwestern China Will Also Experience Some Below Average Precipitation In The Spring And That May Hurt Early Season Corn, Rice And Sugarcane Development.
WEBSITE -- http://www.worldweather.cc Telephone: 913-383-1161 EMAIL ------ worldweather@bizkc.rr.com Fax Number: 913-383-1198
January 2014 Was The Solar Maximum For this 10-12 Year Solar Cycle For Sunspots. There Are A Few Correlations To Associate With That Trend, But These Associations Must Be Played Off Other Dominating Weather Patterns.
Year Daily Sunspot Number Daily Sunspot Numbers Since 1900
Sunspots Peak Out In 10 To 12-year Periods And The Same Is True For Their
Changes In Sunspot Cycles. There Is A Tendency For Global Temperatures To Rise And Fall In Association With The Solar Cycles As You Might Imagine. As The Sun Becomes Warmer The Sunspot Count In Each 10 To 12 Year Cycle Rises And As The Sun Trends Cooler There Are The Fewer Sunspots In The Same Cycles.
Long Term Global Temperature Trend
There Seems To Be A 25-30 Year Lag Between Long Term Trend Changes In The Solar Cycle And Earth’s Global Temperature Trend, But It Does Look As Though The Earth Is Not Warming As It Was And There May Be A Short Period Of Cooling In The Next 20 Years. No Ice Age, However!
CO2 Concentrations Continue To Rise, But Notice The Parallel With Global Temperatures Has Ended Suggesting CO2 Is Not The Dominant Gas Responsible For Global Warming.