Pakistan Polio Eradication Programme Update
Independent Monitoring Board (IMB), Seventeenth Meeting, London
1– 3 October, 2019
Government of Pakistan Ministry of National Health Services, Regulations & Coordination
Pakistan Polio Eradication Programme Update Independent Monitoring - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Government of Pakistan Ministry of National Health Services, Regulations & Coordination Pakistan Polio Eradication Programme Update Independent Monitoring Board (IMB), Seventeenth Meeting, London 1 3 October, 2019 Outline Current
1– 3 October, 2019
Government of Pakistan Ministry of National Health Services, Regulations & Coordination
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2635 2555 1802 1155 341 558 199 119 90 103 53 28 39 32 117 89 144 198 58 93 306 54 20 8 12 66 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Number of polio cases in Pakistan has decreased from estimated 20,000 per year in early 1990s to 66 so far in 2019
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10 20 30 40 50 60
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Number
WPV1
Data as of 24-09-2019
2019, of which 58 cases reported outside core reservoirs.
KP, and especially intense in southern KP.
core reservoirs of Peshawar, Karachi and Quetta block, but is particularly intense in Karachi where all 11 ES sites are WPV1+.
transmission outside core reservoirs (detected through environmental surveillance), with entrenched transmission in Lahore.
Source Disputed Territory
Infected districts/Towns/Agencies/Areas On the basis of WPV isolation
2018 2019
* Afp.rec Data as of 23-09-2019 Provincial Boundary Districts Boundary Cases randomly placed in districts
P1 = 06
Sewage water
Grab = 78 Compatible = 01
Source AFP Surveillance Source
P1 = 66
AFP Surveillance Sewage water
Grab = 210 BMFS= 14 Compatible = 0 cVDPV Cases =
cVDPV Env = - BMFS = 07
Disputed Territory
Infected districts/Towns/Agencies/Areas On the basis of WPV isolation
statistical and evolutionary models and represent estimated mean values from AFP cases from Jan 2010 – July 2019
genetic diversity over time; the shaded areas are the confidence intervals of the estimates
season transmission
second half of 2018 than in 2016 or 2017 (low and high season peaks)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Number
Samples Collected Positive Samples
Data as of 24-09-2019
10
11
27 22 29 28 22 21 45 51 83 82 59 130 146 136 141 148 147 129 126 104 114 67 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q-1 (2017) Q-2 (2017) Q-3 (2017) Q-4 (2017) Q-1 (2018) Q-2 (2018) Q-3 (2018) Q-4 (2018) Q-1 (2019) Q-2 (2019) Q-3 (2019)
2 1 2 3 1 2 4 5 6 38 22
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Q-1 (2017) Q-2 (2017) Q-3 (2017) Q-4 (2017) Q-1 (2018) Q-2 (2018) Q-3 (2018) Q-4 (2018) Q-1 (2019) Q-2 (2019) Q-3 (2019)
Data as of 24-09-2019
13
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 BALOCHISTAN KP PUNJAB SINDH
Proportion of Still NA children against target children
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 BALOCHISTAN KP PUNJAB SINDH
Proportion of Still NA children against Recorded Missed
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 BALOCHISTAN KP PUNJAB SINDH
Proportion of Still Refusal children against target children
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 BALOCHISTAN KP PUNJAB SINDH
Proportion of Still Refusal children against Recorded Refusal
16
Red line indicates beginning of NEAP Year 2018/2019 Islamabad was not part of June 2019 campaign
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Islamabad Balochistan KP Punjab Sindh Jul 17 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan18 Feb Mar Apr May Jul 18 Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan19 Feb Mar Jun
17
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
JAN-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 JAN-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 JAN-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 JAN-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 BALOCHISTAN KP PUNJAB SINDH
Reason for missed; Refused %
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
JAN-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 JAN-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 JAN-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 JAN-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 BALOCHISTAN KP PUNJAB SINDH
% of Refusal Sub categories
Demand Fatigue HospDr Religion Rumour Security Sick Already Vacc Unknown
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20
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space for well planned and consistent communication engagement with communities and other potential allies of the program.
affected by this as they are drawn almost entirely into a constant round of preparing for and implementing the next campaign.
implementing the next round also increases the numbers of knocks on the door focused
households to vaccinate their children. This has reached a level that it is now becoming counter-productive and is creating animosity towards the program. The ‘knock-on’ effect: The impact of so many rounds and so little time to do anything has also affected many other areas
and analysis,
level,
an organisational culture that understands and implements the sophisticated C4E approach envisaged in the NEAP and essential to the success of the program.
some gap b/w interactions
we are in the field . Need greater trust between
properly trained in administering IPV
promised to them
polio
additional needs, i.e. we had a good response, were able to cover refusals when we provided communities with soap. The only problem is that this might lead to further demands.
current vaccine is faulty as opposed to vaccines used earlier on in the programme
while the propaganda ones posted on social media are true
influence in changing hardcore refusals
working outside in the heat all day, no place to rest, low wages, no increase in wages
working hours despite this…
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Empower different elements of the Pakistan Polio Program to work as “One Team” Simplify the processes across campaigns to refocus efforts on areas that add the most value Build a performance culture across the delivery chain to motivate and retain the best talent Inculcate data-driven decision making across the delivery chain by building enablers and simplifying access to data Establish a central Transformation Office to drive interventions across the delivery chain and co-ordinate between partner
Structure Process People Data Transformation
Structure Process Transformation Office
Revamp the DPCR to be the planning and implementation body for polio activities at the district level by giving it the right role, structure, processes and capabilities Develop the UC level into the key implementation and problem solving body that interacts directly with the field
1 2
Improve the micro-planning process to focus
strategies at the UC level Rationalize the daily intra-campaign meetings and adjust cadence to improve decision making effectiveness
3 4
Data
Digitize data entry at the field level to enable streamlined reporting processes Improve the usage of data across the delivery chain and build data analytics capability, to support data-backed decision making
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People
Build capability across the delivery chain including improvement of training content and delivery Provide adequate support to field staff (e.g. well-equipped team resource center, etc.)
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Revise performance management system to improve accountability across the Pakistan polio program
8 9
Setup a transformation office to lead the initiatives while collaborating between partner organizations to drive change across the Pakistan Polio Program
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RECAP OF PRELIMINARY RECOMMENDATIONS
internal programme review to identify Super-high risk UC using a risk assessment model
– Dedicated oversight and management structure under Divisional Commissioner – CBV strategy with 2-member team – Inclusion of these UCs in all campaigns (OPV and IPV) – Intensified communication activities with deployment of dedicated Comms workforce – Intensified Essential Immunization activities (Full PEI support to EPI including, New born, under 2 and Zero dose children) – Integrated health service/Polio Plus activities (WASH, Sanitation, Nutrition)
27
Karachi UCs categorization Super-high risk UC
High-risk UC
28
29
30
31
32
Policy/Enabling Environment Organizational Community Interpersonal (engagement of family decision makers/IPC) Individual (engagement of parents /IPC)
initiative PMI – promote vaccination as a Social norm, build trust & goodwill for the HWs
institutions e.g. madrassas & schools
community leaders
families and parents, polio plus
Current District Tier Classification
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Disputed territory
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
FROM
TO
24/7 SMC Anti- Vaccines propagan da
Hotline with top management
blocked within minutes. FACEBOOK/ GOOGLE SEO Dedicated / fully functional, in house SMC operating on 24/7 basis Fully operational Social Media Cell
All Media
All media partners whether conventional or social media; initiatives like “Zara Sochiye” MEDIA OWNERSHIP
PH 24/7 Call Center
Polio Helpline (PH) 24/7 Call center - staff of 100 (27 polio FAQs and a helpline for feedback & complaints during SIAs)
Environmen t or Human Polio Cases
Cases would be widely publicized to raise threat perception. Publicizing human & env. cases
Ownershi p at Highest Govt. Level
PM would personally urge each parent, via “Robo call” during upcoming SIAs. AUTOMATED CALL
the largest opinion shapers – ownership & commitment
houses – content integration, credible voices, shaping of public opinion
to WhatsApp
engagement with the public
Build –Social Norm & Trust in our brand
Communication for Eradication
insurance)
sachets
Polio program would assist in program implementation, ensuring tracking of underserved communities and those below poverty line.
Synergized Implementation
Polio Eradication Initiative (PEI) “Ehsaas” program “Benazir Income Support Program (BISP)”
Onboarding of medical Students before each Campaign
CONTD …
Full district Part of district Not included
Disputed territory
Sept Oct Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2020
Disputed territory
Nov June
Dec 16, NID, 100% Apr 13*, NID, 100% Jun 22, SNID, 50%
8 weeks 2 months preps.
Disputed territory
Nov 4 SNID, 44% Jan 27 , SNID 44%
Ramazan
Disputed territory Disputed territory Disputed territory
Feb 17, NID, 100%
Sept Oct Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2020 Nov June
Ramazan
TCV campaign in Urban Sindh
Enhanced outreach activities for Routine Immunization would be conducted in 2nd and 3rd week of each month for 12 days, which would be adjusted according to the Polio NIDs/SNIDs in respective months.
Disputed territory Disputed territory Disputed territory Disputed territory Disputed territory Disputed territory Disputed territory Disputed territory Disputed territory
3 3 2 2 2 4 10 13 20 21 15 48 50 50 50 50 49 41 38 36 41 23 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q-1 (2017) Q-2 (2017) Q-3 (2017) Q-4 (2017) Q-1 (2018) Q-2 (2018) Q-3 (2018) Q-4 (2018) Q-1 (2019) Q-2 (2019) Q-3 (2019)
Proportion of +ve Environmental Samples by Quarter (2017-2019)
1 1 4
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Q-1 (2017) Q-2 (2017) Q-3 (2017) Q-4 (2017) Q-1 (2018) Q-2 (2018) Q-3 (2018) Q-4 (2018) Q-1 (2019) Q-2 (2019) Q-3 (2019)
Data as of 24-09-2019
6 8 20 15 10 6 13 7 29 36 28 42 43 33 38 43 43 40 45 28 18 7 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q-1 (2017) Q-2 (2017) Q-3 (2017) Q-4 (2017) Q-1 (2018) Q-2 (2018) Q-3 (2018) Q-4 (2018) Q-1 (2019) Q-2 (2019) Q-3 (2019)
Proportion of +ve Environmental Samples by Quarter (2017-2019)
1 1 1 1 2 3
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Q-1 (2017) Q-2 (2017) Q-3 (2017) Q-4 (2017) Q-1 (2018) Q-2 (2018) Q-3 (2018) Q-4 (2018) Q-1 (2019) Q-2 (2019) Q-3 (2019)
Data as of 24-09-2019
2 3 3 6 7 13 17 16 12 2 22 27 27 24 24 26 23 24 25 29 22 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q-1 (2017) Q-2 (2017) Q-3 (2017) Q-4 (2017) Q-1 (2018) Q-2 (2018) Q-3 (2018) Q-4 (2018) Q-1 (2019) Q-2 (2019) Q-3 (2019)
Proportion of +ve Environmental Samples by Quarter (2017-2019)
1 3 5 4 30 15
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Q-1 (2017) Q-2 (2017) Q-3 (2017) Q-4 (2017) Q-1 (2018) Q-2 (2018) Q-3 (2018) Q-4 (2018) Q-1 (2019) Q-2 (2019) Q-3 (2019)
Data as of 24-09-2019
14 6 6 8 3 3 6 12 18 11 13 17 24 24 22 26 27 25 18 12 23 13 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Q-1 (2017) Q-2 (2017) Q-3 (2017) Q-4 (2017) Q-1 (2018) Q-2 (2018) Q-3 (2018) Q-4 (2018) Q-1 (2019) Q-2 (2019) Q-3 (2019)
Proportion of +ve Environmental Samples by Quarter (2017-2019)
1 2 1 2 2 3
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Q-1 (2017) Q-2 (2017) Q-3 (2017) Q-4 (2017) Q-1 (2018) Q-2 (2018) Q-3 (2018) Q-4 (2018) Q-1 (2019) Q-2 (2019) Q-3 (2019)
Data as of 24-09-2019
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
BALOCHISTAN KP PUNJAB SINDH
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19
1 2 3 4 5 %Team Performance % VBNFM % Refusals % NA
Reasons Missed, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Jul 17 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan18 Feb Mar Apr May Jul18 Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan19 Feb Mar Jun 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Jul 17 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan18 Feb Mar Apr May Jul 18 Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan19 Feb Mar Jun
1 2 3 4 5 %Team Performance % VBNFM % Refusals % NA
Reasons Missed, Punjab
Jul 17 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan18 Feb Mar Apr May Jul18 Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan19 Feb Mar Jun 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Jul 17 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan18 Feb Mar Apr May Jul 18 Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan19 Feb Mar Jun
1 2 3 4 5 %Team Performance % VBNFM % Refusals % NA
Reasons Missed, Sindh
Jul 17 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan18 Feb Mar Apr May Jul18 Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan19 Feb Mar Jun 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Jul 17 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan18 Feb Mar Apr May Jul 18 Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan19 Feb Mar Jun
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Bannu 1 4 3 9 4 1 Charsadda 1 DI Khan 1 Hangu 1 1 Lakki 1 1 4 Shangla 1 Torghar 2 3 1 Bajur TD 1 Khyber TD 1 NWTD 3 2 1 2 SWTD 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
NID Jan 21-24 Jan NID Apr 22-25 Apr CRs July 15-18 Jul CR Feb 18-21 Feb SNID Mar 25-28 Mar SNID Jun 17-20 Jun
SNID Aug 26-29 Aug