Overview on my scientific research in probability and volcanology - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Overview on my scientific research in probability and volcanology Andrea Bevilacqua Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa. Postdoctoral Researcher in: Development and application of physical-mathematical and
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa. Postdoctoral Researcher in: “Development and application of physical-mathematical and statistical models in quantifying volcanic hazard”
2018 5 months 2016 29 months
Postdoctoral Associate
INGV, Sezione di Pisa; Project FISR 2017 - SOIR
Development and application of physical-mathematical and statistical models for the quantification of volcanic hazard. Postdoctoral Associate (R.V. Fisher Postdoctoral Fellowship)
Center for Geohazard Studies, Department of Earth Sciences, University at Buffalo, NY , USA Hazard SEES project NSF, and CDSE Program, UB.
Multidisciplinary Volcano Hazards Research – probabilistic volcanic hazard analyses and uncertainty quantification related to case studies at Kilauea and Long Valley volcanic systems.
2014
Research Fellow
18 months INGV, Sezione di Pisa; Progects DPC-V1 e EU-FP7 Supersite MED-SUV
Volcanic hazard assessment related to pyroclastic flows and ash dispersion through mathematical models, probabilistic analysis and uncertainty quantification techniques.
2011
PhD Scholar in Applied Mathematics
36 months Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa, and INGV, Sezione di Pisa. 2015
Phd in Mathematics for Industrial Technologies
Supervisors: Prof. Franco Flandoli, Dr. Augusto Neri Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa, in collaboration with INGV 2011
MS in Mathematics (Laurea Magistrale)
Thesis Advisor: Prof. Franco Flandoli, Università di Pisa 2009
BS in Mathematics (Laurea Triennale)
Thesis Advisor: Prof. Franco Flandoli, Università di Pisa 2006
High School Degree
Liceo scientifico Ulisse Dini, Pisa
DPC‐V1 (all. C) MED‐SUV (EU‐FP7) HSEES (NSF #1521855) NSF #1339765, NSF #1621853 NSF #1821311 FISR2017 PVHA of Aso caldera, Cotopaxi and Guagua‐Pichincha, San Salvador and Nejapa‐Chiltepe
2012 ‐ 2015
Figure 1. Probability maps of vent
(PVO), % per km2, conditional
and (c) refer to the 5th and 95th %iles, Figure (b) to the mean values. Figure 2. PDC invasion hazard maps with the PVO in Fig. 1 and the areal sizes in the last 5
eruption, with a vent located inland. (a) and (c) are the 5th %ile and 95%ile, (b) the mean values.
(a) (b)
2014 ‐ 2017
Figure 2. Temporal PDC invasion hazard map assuming to be in a new eruptive epoch. Mean % hazard in the next 50 years with the possibility of a sequence of multiple events. Figure 1. Cumulative volume erupted in (a) Epoch III and (b) in the last 15ka. Mean value and 5th and 95th %iles.
2014 ‐ 2017
Figure 1. Pdf of expert judgement weights of various information from nine different data sets. Figure 2. PVO maps with possible caldera enlargement effects included. 5th, mean, and 95th %ile values in case of a sub‐Plinian or Plinian eruption.
PVHA in Long‐Valley volcanic region (2 publications, 1 preprint in review)
2016 ‐ ...
under review
UQ of geophysical flows models (1 publication, 3 preprints in review)
2017 ‐ ...
under review under review under review
2018 ‐ ...
under review under review Figure 1. (a, c) interpolated maps of horizontal (a) and vertical (c) displacement, based on UP7 GPS data. (b, d) are uncertainty ranges. Figure 2. Estimators of failure time tf. Bold line the pdf of tf, with its 5th and 95th %ile values. SDE paths