OPTA analyst meeting January 23, 2008 Programme 13.00 The main - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

OPTA analyst meeting January 23, 2008

Programme • 13.00 The main developments on the electronic communications and postal markets, by – Johan Keetelaar and Christa Cramer (electronic communications) – Symen Formsma (postal affairs) • Questions (also through internet) • 14.00 End of meeting

Market developments • Convergence • Bundling • Recommendation • Market analyses

Increase in bundles • Triple play: mostly cable • Dual play fixed+bb: DSL

Increase digital telephony 6.000.000 5.000.000 4.000.000 PSTN/ISDN WLR 3.000.000 Digital Telephony Total telephony 2.000.000 1.000.000 0 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q • 42% of consumer telephony now digital • Over 5% fixed consumer telephony WLR within one year • 17.7% mobile only households Q3 2007, Telecompaper

Mobile retail market shares Q307 Q306 KPN 4% 11% 6% Vodafone 14% T-Mobile (incl. 49% Orange) Orange 26% 22% KPN SP's, MVNO's Vodafone 47% T-Mobile (incl. Orange) SP's, MVNO's 21% • Merger T-Mobile/Orange • Growth of service providers • Postpaid 47%, up from 44% Q306 Q3 2007, Telecompaper • Over 18.9 mln customers

Broadcast retail market shares 2% Zesko (@Home, Casema, 6% Multikabel) (cable) 11% UPC (cable) 3% Delta (cable) 2% 44% CAIW (cable) 2% Other cable Canal Digitaal (satellite) KPN (mostly DVB-T, some IPTV) 30% Tele2 (IPTV) • 81% cable, compared to 87% in Q306 Q3 2007, Telecompaper

Steady growth of digital TV 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Cable Satellite (Dutch) Terrestial IPTV Total digital TV Q3 2007, Telecompaper • From 29% Q306 to 38% Q307 (of all RTV subscriptions) • Digital cable includes analogue signal • Increased uptake of terrestrial

Broadband retail market shares 8% 12% 1% 12% 11% Het Net (KPN, DSL) Planet Internet (KPN, DSL) Direct ADSL (KPN, DSL) XS4ALL (KPN, DSL) 3% Overig (KPN, DSL) Orange Breedband (DSL) Tele2Versatel (DSL) @Home (Zesko, cable) 7% 10% Casema (Zesko, cable) Multikabel (Zesko, cable) UPC (cable) Zeelandnet (cable) Other (cable+DSL) 5% 12% 6% 5% 8% Q3 2007, Telecompaper • KPN (incl. Tiscali) 44% in Q307, compared to 40% in Q306

Broadband development (mln. aansluitingen) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 March 2002 June 2002 September 2002 December 2002 March 2003 KPN (DSL) June 2003 September 2003 Alternative DSL operators December 2003 March 2004 June 2004 September 2004 Total DSL ecember 2004 March 2005 Cable operators June 2005 September 2005 December 2005 Total cable and DSL March 2006 June 2006 September 2006 December 2006 March 2007 June 2007 September 2007

Developments all-IP • Negotiated solution: KPN has now reached agreement on principles (MoUs) with the four largest LLU operators (bbned, Orange, Tele2, Easynet), Solcon and Plex; 3 others no result (yet) • KPN translates the agreements in a non-discriminatory public offer –1st version: 1 October 2007, 2nd this month

Postal market • New Postal Act postponed • New date wil depend on – state of affairs in Germany – conditions of employment for postal workers in The Netherlands • OPTA in favor of immediate liberalisation

Revenues and returns TNT (reserved and universal service) 1200 1000 800 Total Revenues Reserved millions euros Area Total Revenues other 600 Universal Services Return other Universal Services Return Reserved Area 400 200 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year

Volume adressed mail 6000 5000 4000 millions euros Top 3 companies 3000 TNT Mail Universal Service TNT Selekt mail/Sandd 2000 1000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year

Questions for OPTA experts Johan Keetelaar and Christa Cramer (electronic communications) Symen Formsma (postal affairs) Representatives of the financial world should note that OPTA has the legal duty to protect company confidential data .

End of meeting • Contact for analysts: Cynthia Heijne • +31 70 – 315 9223 • c.heijne@opta.nl • www.opta.nl