OPTA analyst meeting January 23, 2008 Programme 13.00 The main - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

OPTA analyst meeting

January 23, 2008

Programme

• 13.00 The main developments on the electronic

communications and postal markets, by –Johan Keetelaar and Christa Cramer (electronic communications) –Symen Formsma (postal affairs)

• Questions (also through internet)
• 14.00 End of meeting

Market developments

• Convergence
• Bundling
• Recommendation
• Market analyses

Increase in bundles

• Triple play: mostly cable
• Dual play fixed+bb: DSL

1.000.000 2.000.000 3.000.000 4.000.000 5.000.000 6.000.000 Q 1 5 Q 2 5 Q 3 5 Q 4 5 Q 1 6 Q 2 6 Q 3 6 Q 4 6 Q 1 7 Q 2 7 Q 3 7 PSTN/ISDN WLR Digital Telephony Total telephony

Q3 2007, Telecompaper

Increase digital telephony

• 42% of consumer telephony now digital
• Over 5% fixed consumer telephony WLR within one year
• 17.7% mobile only households

Q3 2007, Telecompaper

Q307 47% 21% 26% 6% KPN Vodafone T-Mobile (incl. Orange) SP's, MVNO's

Q306 49% 22% 14% 11% 4% KPN Vodafone T-Mobile (incl. Orange) Orange SP's, MVNO's

• Merger T-Mobile/Orange
• Growth of service providers
• Postpaid 47%, up from 44% Q306
• Over 18.9 mln customers

Mobile retail market shares

Broadcast retail market shares

44% 30% 2% 2% 3% 11% 6% 2%

Zesko (@Home, Casema, Multikabel) (cable) UPC (cable) Delta (cable) CAIW (cable) Other cable Canal Digitaal (satellite) KPN (mostly DVB-T, some IPTV) Tele2 (IPTV)

Q3 2007, Telecompaper

• 81% cable, compared to 87% in Q306

Steady growth of digital TV

• From 29% Q306 to 38% Q307 (of all RTV subscriptions)
• Digital cable includes analogue signal
• Increased uptake of terrestrial

Q3 2007, Telecompaper

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Q 4 3 Q 1 4 Q 2 4 Q 3 4 Q 4 4 Q 1 5 Q 2 5 Q 3 5 Q 4 5 Q 1 6 Q 2 6 Q 3 6 Q 4 6 Q 1 7 Q 2 7 Q 3 7 Cable Satellite (Dutch) Terrestial IPTV Total digital TV

12% 11% 10% 5% 6% 8% 5% 12% 7% 3% 12% 1% 8% Het Net (KPN, DSL) Planet Internet (KPN, DSL) Direct ADSL (KPN, DSL) XS4ALL (KPN, DSL) Overig (KPN, DSL) Orange Breedband (DSL) Tele2Versatel (DSL) @Home (Zesko, cable) Casema (Zesko, cable) Multikabel (Zesko, cable) UPC (cable) Zeelandnet (cable) Other (cable+DSL)

Broadband retail market shares

• KPN (incl. Tiscali) 44% in Q307, compared to 40% in Q306

Q3 2007, Telecompaper

Broadband development

1 2 3 4 5 6 March 2002 June 2002 September 2002 December 2002 March 2003 June 2003 September 2003 December 2003 March 2004 June 2004 September 2004 ecember 2004 March 2005 June 2005 September 2005 December 2005 March 2006 June 2006 September 2006 December 2006 March 2007 June 2007 September 2007 (mln. aansluitingen) KPN (DSL) Alternative DSL operators Total DSL Cable operators Total cable and DSL

• Negotiated solution: KPN has now reached agreement
• n principles (MoUs) with the four largest LLU
• perators (bbned, Orange, Tele2, Easynet), Solcon and

Plex; 3 others no result (yet)

• KPN translates the agreements in a non-discriminatory

public offer –1st version: 1 October 2007, 2nd this month

Developments all-IP

Postal market

• New Postal Act postponed
• New date wil depend on

– state of affairs in Germany – conditions of employment for postal workers in The Netherlands

• OPTA in favor of immediate liberalisation

Revenues and returns TNT (reserved and universal service)

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year millions euros

Total Revenues Reserved Area Total Revenues other Universal Services Return other Universal Services Return Reserved Area

Volume adressed mail

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year millions euros

Top 3 companies TNT Mail Universal Service TNT Selekt mail/Sandd

Questions for OPTA experts

Johan Keetelaar and Christa Cramer (electronic communications) Symen Formsma (postal affairs)

Representatives of the financial world should note that OPTA has the legal duty to protect company confidential data.

End of meeting

• Contact for analysts: Cynthia Heijne
• +31 70 – 315 9223
• c.heijne@opta.nl
• www.opta.nl