Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and the costs of delayed action Dr Matthew Winning UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources 17 th October 2019 Focus 1. A 2 o C scenario compared against a baseline of current NDC

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Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and the costs of delayed action

Dr Matthew Winning

UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources 17th October 2019

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Focus

  • 1. A 2oC scenario compared against a baseline of

current NDC commitments with emphasis on economic impacts using TIAM-UCL-MSA

  • 2. How does the timing of action affect the

economic impacts?

  • 3. How do changes in renewable technology costs

affect economic impacts?

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Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals

Country Share of global 2012 GHG emissions GHG reduction Target date Base year Other large-scale pledges Max 2030 GHG emissions (Mt CO2-eq) Change in 2030 from 2012 level China 24% 60-65% reduction in CO2/GDP intensity 2025 2005 20% share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030 13,500 +15% United States 13% 26-28% 2025 2005 32% reduction in electricity CO2 from 2005 levels by 2030 5,500

  • 8%

EU & Norway 9% 40% 2030 1990 3,200

  • 28%

Russia 5% 25-30% 2030 1990 2,500 +11% Japan 3% 25% 2030 2005 1,000

  • 22%

Mexico 1.7% 22-36% 2030 BAU 690

  • 14%

India 6.7% 33-35% reduction in GHG/GDP intensity 2030 2005 40% share of low carbon in electricity capacity 6,752 +133% Canada 1.5% 20% 2030 2005 520

  • 30%

South Korea 1.3% 37% 2030 BAU 540

  • 16%

Australia 1.2% 26-28% 2030 2005 450

  • 20%
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NDC reports

NDC Study Approach / Model Global GHG emissions in 2030 (Gt CO2 e) Level relative to 2010 Level relative to ref / baseline in 2030 EC JRC (Kitous and Keramidas, 2015) Emission reduction / POLES 54 +12% UNFCCC (2015b) Emission reduction / Multi-study review 53.1 – 58.6 +11-20% Boyd et al (2015) Analysis of NDCs submitted under different GDP projections 52.8 – 61.1 16.25% Admirral et al (2015) Emission reduction & IAM / IMAGE-TIMER 54 - 56

  • 14-17%

Ekholm and Lindroos (2015) Emission reduction / REFUGE3 50 - 54 Rogelj et al (2016) Based on 10 global assessments including

  • thers in the table

52.6 - 55 +10-15% Vandyck et al (2016) Emission reduction and macro effects / POLES & GEM-E3 55

  • 13%

Hof et al (2017) Emission reduction & cost analysis / IMAGE 49.4 – 54.6 14.5 to 17%

  • 14 to 16%

UNEP (2017) Emissions reduction / multi-model 53 – 55.5

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16 regions in TIAM-UCL

McGlade and Ekins (2015), The Geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2oC, Nature

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TIAM-UCL-MSA (hard link)

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Demand response

Figure A2: Comparison of demands (a) Car road (b) Commercial hot water (c) Iron and steel (d) Residential clothes washing, for the DA2030 scenario in linear and MSA versions of TIAM-UCL (indexed to 2030)

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NDCs in TIAM-UCL-MSA

167 NDCs submitted. NDCs of 194 countries now comprehensively covered in TIAM-UCL covering 97% of global emissions

  • Conditional vs. unconditional targets e.g. Algeria 7% or

22%; Nigeria 20% vs. 45%

  • Emissions growth assumptions for Business-as-usual (BAU)

to 2030 (high vs. low)

  • 1.1 Gt CO2e difference between conditional and

unconditional

  • 2.9Gt difference between High Growth + unconditional vs.

Low Growth + conditional

  • TIAM-UCL range is 52 to 54.9 Gt CO2e
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Scenarios

Scenario name Description NDC

Model Baseline. NDCs achieved to 2030 and then a constant regional level of emissions per GDP/capita beyond 2030.

2DS

2oC target is undertaken from 2020 onwards Upper limit of individual regions from NDC constraint.

2DS-TECH

As per 2DS but with lower solar PV, wind and transport costs

DA2030

2oC target is undertaken from 2030 onwards, with the pathways before 2030 fixed to NDC.

DA2030-TECH

As per 2DS-DA30 but with lower solar PV, wind and transport costs post-2030.

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No damages

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Global emissions

3.3oC in 2100

  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2060 2070 2080

Gt CO2

NDC 2DS 2DS-TECH 2DS-DA30 2DS-DA30-TECH

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Global emissions

Reduction rates in TIAM-UCL-MSA GHGs: 2DS = 1.6% p.a. DA2030 = 2.6% p.a. CO2: 2DS = 3.5% p.a. DA2030 = 6.1% p.a. CO2 budget = 910-930 Gt Other literature GHGs (UNFCCC 2015): 2DS = 1.6% (0.6-2.2) p.a. DA2030 = 3.3% (2.7-3.9) p.a. Rogelj et al. (2016) CO2 budget (66%) = 590-1,240 Gt

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Results

Global GDP loss % for scenarios against NDCs

  • 9%
  • 8%
  • 7%
  • 6%
  • 5%
  • 4%
  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2064 2070

% change GDP vs. NDC

2DS 2DS-TECH 2DS-DA30 2DS-DA30 TECH

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Results

Global GDP levels

50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

$ bn

NDC 2DS 2DS-TECH DA2030 DA2030-TECH

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Results

Annual global GDP growth rates

1,5% 1,7% 1,9% 2,1% 2,3% 2,5% 2,7% 2,9% 3,1% 3,3% 3,5% 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

Annual global GDP growth rate

NDC 2DS 2DS-TECH DA2030 DA2030-TECH

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Global GDP growth % rates

Scenario\Period 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 NDC 3.22% 3.26% 3.21% 3.07% 2.92% 2.81% 2.70% 2.52% 2.31% 2.17% 1.96% 2DS 3.22% 3.01% 3.07% 2.92% 2.77% 2.67% 2.58% 2.37% 2.18% 2.00% 1.82% 2DS-TECH 3.22% 3.10% 3.14% 3.00% 2.90% 2.86% 2.80% 2.56% 2.31% 2.14% 1.93% DA2030 3.22% 3.26% 3.21% 2.55% 2.59% 2.56% 2.48% 2.31% 2.15% 2.03% 1.84% DA2030-TECH 3.22% 3.26% 3.22% 2.72% 2.72% 2.75% 2.73% 2.51% 2.35% 2.16% 1.95%

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Results

Regional GDP loss % for DA2030 against 2DS

  • 6%
  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2064 2070 CHI CSA FSU IND MEA USA WEU

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Global electricity production

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2030 2050 2080 2030 2050 2080 2030 2050 2080 NDC 2DS 2DS-TECH

EJ

Wind-onshore Wind-offshore Tidal Solar thermal Solar PV Oil Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Natural Gas CCS Natural Gas Coal CCS Coal Biomass CCS Biomass

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Conclusions

  • Current NDC ambition leads to a 3.1–3.3oC world in 2100
  • Global rate of CO2 emissions reduction is doubled between 2030

and 2050 if NDCs not ratcheted-up until 2030

  • Total cumulative GDP over the century is lower when additional

action is delayed to 2030 and therefore has an overall negative impact on the economy

  • Early action combined with cost reductions in key renewable energy

technologies can reduce GDP losses to minimal levels (<1%)

  • A 2oC future with technological advancements is clearly possible for

a similar cost as a 3.3oC world without these advances, but with lower damages and losses from climate change.

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Macro- Economic Modelling Alvaro Calzadilla

Reference:

Matthew Winning, James Price, Paul Ekins, Steve Pye, James Glynn, Jim Watson & Christophe McGlade (2019): Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and the costs of delayed action, Climate Policy, DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2019.1615858

This research formed part of the programme of the UK Energy Research Centre and was supported by the Research Councils UK under the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council award EP/L024756/1. Also see:

Winning M., Pye S., Glynn J., Scamman D., Welsby D. (2018) How Low Can We Go? The Implications of Delayed Ratcheting and Negative Emissions Technologies on Achieving Well Below 2oC. In: Giannakidis G., Karlsson K., Labriet M., Gallachóir B. (eds) Limiting Global Warming to Well Below 2oC: Energy System Modelling and Policy Development. Lecture Notes in Energy, vol 64. Springer, Cham

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-74424-7_4

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Macro- Economic Modelling Alvaro Calzadilla

Thank you

m.winning@ucl.ac.uk

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Demand response

  • 20
  • 10

10 20 30 40 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Gt CO2

DA2030 DA2030_MSA

Figure A3: Global net CO2 emissions trajectory for the DA2030 scenario in linear and MSA versions of TIAM-UCL

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Macro- Economic Modelling Alvaro Calzadilla Figure A4: Key cost reductions by technology in the NDC Base Case, the TECH scenarios and IEA New Policy 2016

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Sensitivity on post-2030 NDC assumptions

FIGURE A7 – Global CO2 emissions (Gt)

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080

Gt CO2 per year

NDC NDC ALT 2DS ALT 2DS TECH ALT

3.3oC 3.1oC

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Sensitivity on post-2030 NDC assumptions

FIGURE A8 – GDP change in % in key regions for 2DS-ALT and 2DS TECH-ALT against NDC-ALT

  • 4,0%
  • 3,0%
  • 2,0%
  • 1,0%

0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

% change GDP vs NDC-ALT

2DS-ALT 2DS TECH-ALT