Mini-Schedule: Thursday Afternoon May 16, 1:00 PM 3:00 PM Room - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mini-Schedule: Thursday Afternoon May 16, 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM

Room 125: Economic History Chair: Nicolas Ziebarth

Dispersion and Distortions in the Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade John Dalton, Wake Forest University Was Stalin Necessary for Russia's Economic Development? Anton Cheremukhin, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Uncertainty Shocks and the U.S. Great Depression Gabriel Mathy, University of California, Davis The Radio and Bank Runs during the Great Depression Nicolas Ziebarth, University of Iowa

Room 119: Business Cycles I Chair: Anca Ioana Sirbu

News about Aggregate Demand and the Business Cycle Mark Weder, The University of Adelaide Intersectoral Linkages, Diverse Information, and Aggregate Dynamics in a Neoclassical Model Manoj Atolia, Florida State University Lumpy Investment in Sticky Information General Equilibrium Fabio Verona, Bank of Finland News About Taxes and Expectations-Driven Business Cycles Anca Ioana Sirbu, West Virginia University

Room 106: Housing I Chair: Hye Mi You

Housing and Unemployment: The Search for the American Dream Ejindu Ume, Alabama Geographical Reallocation and Unemployment during the Great Recession: The Role of the Housing Burst Suryun Rhee, University of Pennsylvania Rising Earnings Risk and Wealth Distribution with Housing Hye Mi You, State University

• f New York at Buffalo

‘ Coffee will follow from 3:00 – 3:30 PM in the basement of DKH

Room 123: International Macroeconomics I Chair: Enrique Martinez- Garcia

Intangible Capital Transfer Within Multinationals: Evidence from Korean MNCs Jaehan Cho, Arizona State University Exchange Rate Flexibility, Trade Openness and the Extensive Margin Kanda Naknoi, University of Connecticut Growth and Global Imbalances: The Role of Learning-by- Exporting Byoung Hoon Seok, Ohio State University Collateral Policy in a World of Round-the-Clock Payment Charles Kahn, University of Illinois

Mini-Schedule: Thursday Evening May 16, 3:30 PM – 5:30 PM

Room 106: Search 2 Chair: Serdar Kabaca

Search Effort and Labor Force Participation in a Model of Directed Search Lawrence Warren, University

• f Iowa

A Theory of Targeted Search Antonella Tutino, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Dual Income Couples and Interstate Migration Ahmet Ali Taskin, University of Texas at Austin Search Frictions, Financial Frictions and Labor Market Fluctuations in Emerging Markets Serdar Kabaca, Bank of Canada

Room 123: International Trade Chair: John Seater

Niche Firms, Mass Markets, and Income Across Countries: Accounting for the Impact of Entry Costs Pedro Bento, University of Toronto The Great Trade Collapse: A Horse Race of Competing Stories Hakan Yilmazkuday, Florida International University Trade and the Topography of the Spatial Economy Costas Arkolakis, Yale University Trade and Social Welfare When Economic Growth and Industrial Structure Are Endogenous John Seater, North Carolina State University

Room 119: Business Cycles II Chair: Boyan Jovanovic

Business Cycle Persistence in a Model with Endogenous Growth and Fluctuations Chase Coleman, Brigham Young University Extensive and Intensive Investment over the Business Cycle Boyan Jovanovic, New York University

Room 125: Financial Economics I Chair: Matthew Hoelle

Debt and Incomplete Financial Markets: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting Kevin Sheedy, London School

• f Economics

Investor Protection and Optimal Contracts Under Risk Aversion and Costly State Verification Cesar Tamayo, Rutgers University Liquidity, Collateral Constraint and Financial Intermediation Yulei Peng, Texas A&M University On the Efficiency of Nominal GDP Targeting in a Large Open Economy Matthew Hoelle, Purdue University

Mini-Schedule: Friday Morning May 17, 8:45 AM – 10:45 AM

Room 119: Banking Regulation and Deregulation Chair: Alexander Ueberfeldt

Imperfect Information Transmission from Banks to Investors: Real Implications Oksana Leukhina, University

• f Washington

Endogenous Bank Reserves and Economic Activity Scott Dressler, Villanova University Interest Rate Policy and Financial Regulation: How to Control Excessive Risk Taking? Alexander Ueberfeldt, Bank of Canada

Room 106: Default/ Bankruptcy Chair: Stefan Krasa

Optimal Bankruptcy Code for Unsecured Debt Grey Gordon, Indiana University A General Equilibrium Model with Banks and Default on Loans Tamon Takamura, Bank of Canada Repos, Fire Sales, and Bankruptcy Policy Francesca Carapella, Federal Reserve Board Welfare Effects of Increasing Borrowing Limit in the Presence

• f Self Control Problem

Li Li, University of Toronto

Room 125: Unemployment I Chair: David Wiczer

Equilibrium Default and Slow Recoveries Gaston Navarro, New York University Information Technologies and Jobless Recoveries Miguel Morin, Columbia University Hysteresis in Unemployment and Jobless Recoveries Dmitry Plotnikov, University Of California, Los Angeles Long-term Unemployment: Attached and Mismatched? David Wiczer, University of Minnesota

Room 119: Entrepreneurs Chair: Patrick Macnamara

Financial Shocks and the Cyclical Behavior of Skilled and Unskilled Unemployment Jose Lopez, HEC Paris Need-Based Entrepreneurship and Aggregate Productivity Across Countries Kevin Donovan, Arizona State University Project Heterogeneity and Growth: The Impact of Selection Felipe Saffie, University of Pennsylvania The Cross-Sectional Distribution of Firm Leverage Patrick Macnamara, University

• f Manchester

Notes: Coffee and pastries will be served prior to morning sessions

Mini-Schedule: Friday Noon May 17, 11:00 AM – 1:00 PM

Room 123: Technology / TFP I Chair: Rishabh Sinha

Micro-Level Misallocation and Selection: Estimation and Aggregate Implications Mu-Jeung Yang, University of Washington, Seattle Information, Contract Enforcement, and Misallocation Joseph Steinberg, University

• f Minnesota

Aggregate Productivity and the Allocation of Resources Over the Business Cycle Sophie Osotimehin, University

• f Virginia

Occupational Mobility, Misallocation of Labor Resources and Aggregate Productivity Rishabh Sinha, Arizona State University

Room 119: Search Chair: Jan Duras

The Aggregate Effects of the Hartz Reforms in Germany Matthias Hertweck, University

• f Konstanz

Dynamic Equilibria in the Kiyotaki-Wright Model Maurizio Iacopetta, OFCE and SKEMA Business School Amplification and propagation of shocks in a model with labor and goods market search Jan Duras, University of Minnesota

Room 125: Unemployment II Chair: Kit Reicher

The Fading Dynamism of the US Labor Market: The Role of Demographics Tomaz Cajner, Federal Reserve Board Asymmetric Unemployment Dynamics Domenico Ferraro, Duke University The Aggregate Effects of Long Run Sectoral Reallocation Kit Reicher, Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Notes: Lunch is from 1:00 – 2:00 PM, in basement of DKH

Room 106: Human Capital I Chair: Marina Mendes Tavares

An Adjustment Cost Model of Social Mobility Yoseph Getachew, Durham University Ben-Porath vs. Learning-By- Doing: A Macroeconomic Approach Adam Blandin, Arizona State University Factors Affecting College Completion and Student Ability in the U.S. Since 1900 Christopher Herrington, Arizona State University Accounting for the Trends in Inequality and Intergenerational Mobility in the U.S. Marina Mendes Tavares, ITAM

Mini-Schedule: Friday Afternoon May 17, 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM

Room 125: Unemployment III Chair: Eduardo Zilberman

Education, Human Capital and U.S. Labor Market Dynamics Jun Nie, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City The Recent Decline in Employment Dynamics Henry Hyatt, US Census Bureau Variations on a Theme: The Cyclicality of Unemployment and the Relevance of Home Production Robert Lester, University of Notre Dame On the Optimal Size of Public Employment Eduardo Zilberman, PUC-Rio

Room 119: International Macroeconomics II Chair: AKM Morshed

In for a Penny, In for 100 Billion Pounds: Quantifying the Welfare Benefits from Debt Relief Mark Wright, UCLA Optimal Borrowing Constraints and Growth in a Small Open Economy Jacek Rothert, University of Texas, Austin Endogenous Borrowing Constraints and Stagnation in Latin America Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, The Ohio State University Workers' Remittances, Borrowing Constraints, and Welfare AKM Morshed, Southern Illinois University Carbondale

Notes: Coffee will be served from 4:00 – 4:30 PM

Room 123: Financial Frictions and Development Chair: Erick Sager

Subsistence Consumption, Occupational Choice, and the Consequences of Poverty Jeffrey Allen, University of Oregon Foreign Firms, Distribution of Income, and the Welfare of Developing Countries Manuel García-Santana, ECARES Child Labour, Human Capital Accumulation and Mortality Rahul Sirohi, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Development, Volatility and Intertemporal Distortions Erick Sager, University of Minnesota

Mini-Schedule: Friday Evening May 17, 4:15 PM – 5:45 PM

Room 123: Fiscal Policy Chair: Kai (Jackie) Zhao

Fiscal Policy Coordination in Monetary Unions Josef Schroth, Bank of Canada Entrepreneurship in the Shadows: Wealth Constraints and Government Policy Semih Tumen, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Does the Social Safety Net Improve Welfare?: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis Kai (Jackie) Zhao, University

• f Western Ontario

Room 125: Zero Lower Bound Chair: Benjamin Keen

Structural Reforms in a Monetary Union: The Role of the ZLB Andrea Raffo, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Wicksell versus Taylor: A Quest for Determinacy and the (Ir)relevance

• f the Taylor Principle

Rodrigo Caputo, Banco Central de Chile Global Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound Benjamin Keen, University of Oklahoma

Room 106: Political Economy Chair: Toan Phan

Political Competition Over Property Rights Enforcement Jan Auerbach, Washington University in St. Lous Protest and Repression: A Model

• f the Arab Spring

Toan Phan, UNC Chapen Hill

Room 119: Technology / TFP II Chair: Ping Wang

The Interaction of Entry Barriers and Financial Frictions in Growth Sewon Hur, University of Pittsburgh Home Productivity Benjamin Bridgman, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Technology Assimilation and Development Accounting Ping Wang, Washington University in St. Louis

Notes: Professor Lee Ohanian's plenary talk will follow at 6:00 PM in Room 114

Mini-Schedule: Saturday Morning May 18, 8:45 AM – 10:45 AM

Room 119: Fiscal Multipliers Chair: Aaron Butz

The Uncertainty Multiplier and Business Cycles Hikaru Saijo, University of Pennsylvania Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Private Sector Output Rong Li, The Ohio State University The Heterogeneous Effects of Government Purchases Axelle Ferriere, NYU Stern The Size of Fiscal Multipliers Aaron Butz, Joint Committee

• n Taxation

Room 123: Financial Markets Chair: Gaetano Antinolfi

Funding Liquidity and Market Liquidity Yuan Yuan, UW Madison How Do Money Market Conditions Affect Shadow Banking Activity? Evidence From Security Repurchase Agreements Karl Boulware, University of Alabama Macroeconomic Implications of Intangible Capital Reallocation through Mergers and Acquisitions Jahiz Barlas, University of Minnesota & Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Trading OTC and Incentives to Clear Centrally Gaetano Antinolfi, Washington University and Federal Reserve

Room 125: Taxes and Policy Chair: Fabian Kindermann

Taxing Earnings at the Top: A View from Human Capital Theory Alejandro Badel, St. Louis Fed Welfare Effect of Consumption Taxes Qian Li, Stony Brook University Debt in the U.S. Economy Kaiji Chen, Emory University Optimal taxation with current and future cohorts Fabian Kindermann, University of Wuerzburg

Room 106: Human Capital II Chair: Amanda Michaud

Cyclical Employment and Learning Ability Jongsuk Han, University of Rochester Job Polarization : Market Responses to Interindustry Wage Differentials Myungkyu Shim, UCSD The Changes of Hours Fluctuations Since the Mid-1980s: What Happened to Middle Skilled Workers? Hee-Seung Yang, Monash University Incarceration and Labor Markets: A Macroeconomic Analysis Amanda Michaud, Indiana University

Notes: Coffee and pastries before talks

Mini-Schedule: Saturday Noon May 18, 11:00 AM – 1:00 PM

Room 113: Financial Economics II Chair: Marios Karabarbounis

Strategic Interactions and Portfolio Choice in Money Management: Theory and Evidence Alvaro Pedraza, University of Maryland Understanding the Relative Price Puzzle Lin Liu, University of Rochester Learning Leverage Shocks and the Great Recession Jacek Suda, Banque de France - Paris School of Economics Life Cycle Uncertainty and Portfolio Choice Puzzles Marios Karabarbounis, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Room 123: Insurance Chair: Constantine Yannelis

How Well Did Social Security Mitigate the Effects of the Great Recession? William Peterman, Federal Reserve Board of Governors The Aggregate Implications of Labor Supply Near Retirement Jose Mustre-del-Rio, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Say About Labor Income Risk? Serdar Ozkan, Federal Reserve Board The Real Effects of the Uninsured on Premia Constantine Yannelis, Stanford University

Room 125: International Taxation Chair: Soojin Kim

Transatlantic Differences in Taxation, Redistribution and Provision of Public Goods: How Fair is Inequality? Orhan Torul, University of Maryland Imperfect Financial Markets, External Debt, and the Cyclicality of Social Transfers Maren Froemel, European University Institute The Effects of Migration on Optimal Taxation: An International Tax Competition Analysis Soojin Kim, University of Pennsylvania

Room 119: Monetary Policy Chair: Antonio Mele

Policy Design with Private Sector Skepticism in the Textbook New Keynesian Model Yang Lu, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Rational Inattention to News: The Perils

• f Forward Guidance

Gaetano Gaballo, Banque de France Monetary Policies, Unemployment and Inflation Russell Tsz-Nga Wong, Bank of Canada The Suboptimality of the Commitment Equilibrium when Agents are Learning Antonio Mele, University of Surrey

Room 106: Business Cycles III Chair: Sushant Acharya

Financial Cycles and Labor Productivity

• ver the Business Cycle

Carlos Yepez, Brandeis University Consumption Commitments in General Equilibrium Christian Gillitzer, University of Michigan Dispersed Beliefs and Aggregate Demand Management Sushant Acharya, University of Maryland, College Park

Notes: Lunch, from 1:00 – 1:45 in DKH

Mini-Schedule: Saturday Afternoon May 18, 1:45 PM – 3:45 PM

Room 123: Development Chair: Robert Tamura

Money Market Rates and Retail Interest Regulation in China TengTeng Xu, Bank of Canada Financial Frictions and Agricultural Productivity Differences Wei Wang, Washington University in

• St. Louis

Unmarried Fertility, Education, Social Stigma: Where Have All the High School Graduates Gone? Robert Tamura, Clemson University

Room 106: Health Chair: Roozbeh Hosseini

Labor Supply Incentives of Medicaid Ponpoje (Poe) Porapakkarm, University of Macau Welfare Analysis of Obamacare Zhigang Feng, Purdue University Cross-Subsidization in Employer-Based Health Insurance and the Effects of Tax Subsidy Reform Svetlana Pashchenko, Uppsala University Accounting for Health Expenditures and Health Outcomes Across OECD Countries Roozbeh Hosseini, Arizona State University

Room 113: Topics in Macro Chair: Semih Tumen

Effects of Extended Unemployment Benefits on Labor Dynamics Shiny Zhang, University of Toronto Taxing Fossil Fuels under Speculative Storage Semih Tumen, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Room 119: Taxes Chair: Marcelo Arbex

Tax Avoidance, Welfare Transfers, and Asset Prices Denis Gorea, Goethe University Frankfurt On the Optimal Tax Policy in a Model with Uninsurable Idiosyncratic Shocks Marcelo Zouain Pedroni, University

• f Minnesota

Capital Taxation, Intermediate Goods, and Production Efficiency Till Gross, Carleton University Tax evasion: Is this a government fight,

• r can anyone join?

Marcelo Arbex, University of Windsor

Notes: Coffee break after talks

Room 125: Housing II Chair: Peter Norman

Housing Defaults when House Prices are Uncertain Morris Davis, University of Wisconsin-Madison, School Bidding for Teams Benoit Julien, Australian School of Business Housing and Liquidity Randall Wright, University of Wisconsin Directed Search with Random Arrivals

• f Buyers or Workers

Peter Norman, University of North Carolina at Chapel H

Mini-Schedule: Saturday Evening May 18, 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM

Room 119: Term Structure of Interest Rates Chair: Shih-Wei Chao

Expectations from the Term Structure Arunima Sinha, Santa Clara University A DSGE Term Structure Model with Credit Frictions Andrea Ajello, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Long-Run Risks, Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates Shih-Wei Chao, National Chengchi University

Room 125: International Macroeconomics III Chair: Jiae Yoo

Evaluating International Financial Integration in a Center-Periphery Economy Changhua Yu, University of International Business and Economics A Theory of Debt and Default: Liquidity versus Tax Distortion Yun Pei, University of Minnesota Welfare Gains from International Reserve Pooling Jiae Yoo, Johns Hopkins University

Room 113: Monetary & Fiscal Policy Chair: Alexander Richter

Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions: Interdependent Policy Rule Coefficients Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, Federal Reserve Board Debt Maturity Management, Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions Hao Jin, Indiana University Bloomington The Consequences of Uncertain Debt Targets Alexander Richter, Auburn University

Room 123: Discounting Chair: Nicholas Yannelis

Equivalent Representations of Non- Exponential Discounting Models James Feigenbaum, Utah State University Can High Discount Rates Increase Capital Accumulation? Xueli Tang, Deakin University Non-Expected Utility and the Economics

• f Health and Longevity

Juan Cordoba, Iowa State University Contract Theory Valeri Marakulin, Sobolev Institute of Mathematics SB RAS

Room 106: Employment Dynamics Chair: Yahong Zhang

Offshoring, Low-skilled Immigration and Labor Market Polarization Andrei Zlate, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Entrepreneurs, Jobs, and Trade Bulent Unel, Louisiana State University Unemployment Fluctuations in a SOE model with Segmented Labour Markets: the Case of Canada Yahong Zhang, Bank of Canada

Notes: Professor Victor Rios-Rull's plenary talk will follow at 6:00 PM in Room 114 The Contractions play at 10:30 PM at White Horse Inn

Mini-Schedule: Sunday Morning May 19, 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM

Room 119: Informal Markets Chair: Nuray Akin

Shadow Economy over the Business Cycle: How do Formal and Informal Cycles Interact? Serdar Birinci, Bogazici University Informality and Structural Transformation Deniz Bayram, Bogazici University Risk-Sharing within Families: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study Nuray Akin, University of Miami

Room 123: Financial Crises Chair: Andrés Fernández Martin

The Unemployment Effect of Credit Crunch Feng Dong, Washington University in St. Louis Equilibrium Unemployment During Financial Crises Andrés Fernández Martin, Inter-American Development Bank

Room 125: Economics of Natural Resources Chair: Xin Li

Obstinate or Optimal? A Macroeconomic Analysis of Climate Policy Incentives Stephie Fried, UC San Diego Robust Optimal Taxation and Environmental Externalities Xin Li, Rice University

Notes: Coffee and pastries before talks

Mini-Schedule: Sunday Noon May 19, 11:15 AM – 12:45 PM

Room 123: Long Run Trends Chair: Nick Guo

Risk, Economic Growth and the Value of U.S. Corporations Nils Gornemann, University of Pennsylvania Successive Technical Change and the Demand for Skill Damir Stijepic, Goethe University Frankfurt Can Borrowing Costs Explain the Consumption Hump? Nick Guo, Utah State University

Room 119: Rigidities Chair: Julio Blanco

Kinked Demand Curves, the Natural Rate Hypothesis, and Macroeconomic Stability Willem Van Zandweghe, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City A Dynamic Theory of Discrete Choice with Information Costs Anna Popova, UIUC Learning to Price Julio Blanco, New York University