Medium Term Program (2013-2015) 9 October 2012 WORLD ECONOMY 2 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Medium Term Program

(2013-2015)

9 October 2012

WORLD ECONOMY

2

3

3.7 4.9 4.6 5.3 5.4 2.8

• 0.6

5.1 3.8 3.3 3.6

• 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013*

Global Growth (Annual % Change)

(*) Forecast Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2012

4

4.0 4.0 4.5 3.8 3.3 3.6

3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.6 5.0 2011 2012 2013 September 2011 Forecast October 2012 Forecast

Global Growth Forecast (%)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2012

5

1.6 1.1 1.5 1.4

• 0.4

0.2

• 1.0
• 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2011 2012 2013 September 2011 Forecast October 2012 Forecast

Euro Area Growth Forecast (%)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2012

6

6.4 6.1 6.5 6.2 5.3 5.6

5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 2011 2012 2013 September 2011 Forecast October 2012 Forecast

Emerging and Developing Economies Growth Forecast (%)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2012

7

World Trade Volume (Annual % Change)

(*) Forecast Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2012

8

Unemployment Rate (%)

(*) Forecast Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2012

9

General Government Gross Debt / GDP (%)

(*) Forecast Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor, October 2012

10 Note: 2013 and onwards reflect MTP assumptions.

Crude Oil (Brent, US Dollars per barrel)

Source: Reuters

TURKISH ECONOMY

11

12

GDP Growth Rate (Annual % Change)

Source: TURKSTAT

13 13 13

Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted, %)

Source: TURKSTAT

14

Annual Inflation Rate (% Change)

Source: TURKSTAT

15

• 100
• 80
• 60
• 40
• 20

20 2007-1 3 5 7 9 11 2008-1 3 5 7 9 11 2009-1 3 5 7 9 11 2010-1 3 5 7 9 11 2011-1 3 5 7 9 11 2012-1 3 5 7

Current Account Balance Current Account Balance Excl. Energy Imports

Current Account Balance (Annualized, Billion Dollars)

Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT

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Main Priorities of Medium Term Program With the ultimate goal of boosting Turkey’s welfare;

 Raising economic growth to its potential level,  Increasing employment,  Continuing to fight against inflation,  Sustaining the downward trend in current account deficit,  Increasing domestic savings

and, thus strengthening macroeconomic and financial stability.

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GDP Growth Rate (%)

18

Unemployment Rate (%)

19

Inflation Rate (%)

20

Current Account Deficit / GDP (%)

21

Central Government Budget Deficit / GDP (%)

(*) Forecast/Target

22

Public Sector Primary Balance (Program Defined) / GDP (%)

(*) Forecast/Target

23

EU Defined Public Debt / GDP (%)

(*) Forecast/Target

24

Main Structural Issues – I

 Raising savings awareness  Promoting better use of resources in both public and private

sectors

 Simple

and predictable tax policies to support the competitiveness of the economy and reduce informality

 Increasing tax compliance and broadening the tax-base  Reducing import dependency on energy  Improving energy efficiency  Supporting domestic and foreign investments that would help

reach sustainable growth, increase employment and exports as well as reduce import dependency

 Improving business environment

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Main Structural Issues – II

 Improving R&D and innovation, increasing the use of information

and communication technologies

 Shifting to a high value-added production structure in industry

and services

 Increasing the diversification of export markets and access to

finance

 Developing policies in consultation with social partners to reduce

the rigidities in the labor market

 Strengthening

the link between social assistance and employment policies

 Improving the education system and increasing sensitivity of

education to labor demand

 Improving the judicial system

TABLES

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 GDP Growth (%) 9.2 8.5 3.2 4.0 5.0 5.0 GDP (Billion TL) 1,099 1,298 1,435 1,571 1,740 1,933 GDP per Capita ($) 10,022 10,469 10,673 11,318 11,982 12,859 CPI (%) 6.4 10.5 7.4 5.3 5.0 5.0

GROWTH AND INFLATION FORECASTS

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Exports (Fob) 113.9 134.9 149.5 158.0 172.3 187.1 Imports (Cif) 185.5 240.8 239.5 253.0 272.2 291.2 Trade Deficit

• 71.6
• 105.9
• 90.0
• 95.0
• 99.9
• 104.1

Tourism Receipts 20.8 23.0 23.5 25.4 27.0 28.4 Current Account Balance (CAB)

• 46.6
• 77.1
• 58.7
• 60.7
• 63.6
• 64.7

CAB / GDP (%)

• 6.3
• 10.0
• 7.3
• 7.1
• 6.9
• 6.5

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS FORECASTS

(Billion $)

28

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Employment (thousand persons) 22,594 24,110 24,728 25,223 25,728 26,243 Non-agricultural Employment (thousand persons) 16,911 17,967 18,639 19,149 19,669 20,199 Employment Rate (%) 43.0 45.0 45.2 45.3 45.3 45.5 Unemployment Rate (%) 11.9 9.8 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.7

LABOR MARKET FORECASTS

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CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET FIGURES

2012 2013 2014 2015

Total Expenditures 362,668 403,988 436,849 471,150 Primary Expenditures 313,668 350,988 381,849 413,650 Interest Payments 49,000 53,000 55,000 57,500 Total Revenues 329,197 370,095 401,369 436,841 Tax Revenues 278,822 317,949 346,961 379,405 Non-Tax Revenues 50,374 52,146 54,408 57,436 Budget Balance

• 33,472
• 33,893
• 35,480
• 34,309

(Million TL)

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PUBLIC FINANCE

2012 2013 2014 2015 Public Sector Balance

• 1.7
• 1.5
• 1.1
• 0.9

Central Government Budget

• 2.3
• 2.2
• 2.0
• 1.8

Rest of the Public Sector 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 Public Sector Primary Balance (Program Defined) 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 Central Government Budget 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 Rest of the Public Sector 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4

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(% of GDP)