Market Monitoring Update Eric Hildebrandt, Ph.D. Executive - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Market Monitoring Update

Eric Hildebrandt, Ph.D. Executive Director, Department of Market Monitoring EIM Governing Body Meeting General Session January 24, 2019

EIM prices in 2018 reflect regional supply conditions, transmission limits, and net loads.

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Average hourly 15-minute prices (April – December 2018)

Upward flexible ramping requirement test failures low in most areas, but 4 to 5% in some EIM areas during 2018.

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Source: EIM power balance constraint relaxation and imbalance conformance limiter, DMM, January 18, 2019. http://www.caiso.com/Documents/EIMpowerbalanceconstraintrelaxationandimbalanceconformancelimiter.pdf

Flexible ramping requirement test failures lead to transfer limits – which contribute to power balance constraint infeasibilities in EIM areas.

Slide 4 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% Excess Short Excess Short Excess Short Excess Short Excess Short Excess Short Excess Short Excess Short PacifiCorp East PacifiCorp West NV Energy Puget Sound Energy Arizona Public Service Portland General Electric Idaho Power* Powerex* Percent of intervals Failed sufficiency test & infeasibility Passed sufficiency test & infeasibility

Changes to ramping sufficient test in EIM being implemented in spring 2019 include:

• Application of Bid Range Capacity and Flexible Ramp

Sufficiency Tests at a 15-minute (vs. hourly) basis.

• Tolerance bandwidth threshold for small deviations from

test requirements

– Greater of 1% of BAAs uncertainty requirement or 1 MW.

• Provide EIM areas increased information and details of

sufficiency evaluations.

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Changes should provide more transparency and reduce test failures.

Changes in load conformance limiter planned for 2019 will significantly reduce when the limiter is triggered.

Slide 6 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% California ISO PacifiCorp East PacifiCorp West NV Energy Puget Sound Energy Arizona Public Service Portland General Electric Idaho Power* Percent of intervals Load conformance limiter not triggered Current load conformance limiter tiggered Proposed load conformance limiter triggered

• Curr. Prop.
• Curr. Prop.
• Curr. Prop.
• Curr. Prop.
• Curr. Prop.
• Curr. Prop.
• Curr. Prop.
• Curr. Prop.

With current limiter, prices set by last dispatched bid in EIM areas are often much lower than $1,000/MW penalty price otherwise used for infeasibilities.

Slide 7 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% California ISO PacifiCorp East PacifiCorp West NV Energy Puget Sound Energy Arizona Public Service Portland General Electric Idaho Power* Percent of intervals Less than $50 $50 to $200 $200 to $300 $300 to $400 $400 to $900 > $900

• Curr. Prop.
• Curr. Prop.
• Curr. Prop.
• Curr. Prop.
• Curr. Prop.
• Curr. Prop.
• Curr. Prop.
• Curr. Prop.

New load conformance limiter will have much lower impact on prices in two EIM areas.

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Increase NV Energy 15-minute market (FMM) $35.75 $37.60 5% 5-minute market (RTD) $35.30 $37.91 7% Arizona Public Service 15-minute market (FMM) $34.96 $38.52 10% 5-minute market (RTD) $34.66 $39.33 13% Average price with current conformance limiter Average price with proposed conformance limiter

Impact of current and proposed load conformance limiter found to be minimal in CAISO and other EIM areas.

Impact of current and proposed load conformance limiter in APS (15-minute prices, 2018).

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$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Price ($/MWh) Hour ending Average price using current load conformance limiter logic (actual) Average estimated price without the load conformance limiter Average estimated price using proposed load conformance limiter logic Actual average price: $34.96 With proposed limiter: $38.52 (+ 10%) With no limiter: $39.22 (+ 12%)

Impact of current and proposed load conformance limiter in NV Energy (15-minute prices, 2018).

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$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Price ($/MWh) Hour ending Average price using current load conformance limiter logic (actual) Average estimated price without the load conformance limiter Average estimated price using proposed load conformance limiter logic Actual average price: $35.75 With proposed limiter: $37.60 (+ 5%) With no limiter: $37.93 (+ 6%)

Conclusions and recommendations

• DMM supports new load conformance limiter being

proposed, but recommends EIM areas take action to mitigate potential priced impacts of new approach. – Review and monitor use and impact of load conformance. – Seek to reduce ramping sufficiency test failures.

• Changes to sufficiency tests should provide more

transparency and help reduce failures.

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