Manawat District Economic Update March 2020 2 July 2020 Key - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Manawatū District Economic Update – March 2020

2 July 2020

• The Manawatū District economy continued to grow strongly to the year

ended March 2020.

• Inevitably, level 3 and level 4 restrictions significantly affected economic activity.
• The industry mix of the District presents some resilience to the worst impacts of COVID-19.
• The continuation of strong global demand for goods produced in the District boosts

resilience as does strong central government activity and employment.

• Other indicators reflect the inevitable impacts of COVID-19.
• Industry vulnerabilities continue as do the impacts of uncertainty on household and

business economic activity. Drought remains a risk to our crucial primary sector.

• Providing business support and information will support business and household activity.

Key messages

Strong GDP growth across much of the region continued to March

Export values continue to increase year on year

Year ended March 2020 vs year ended March 2019 Year ended May 2020 vs year ended May 2019

New Zealand export trade continues to hold up well

The value of dairy and meat exports now exceeds 2019

Jobseekers ↑ 112 to 759 over the year to March 2020

Jobseeker beneficiaries ↑ 160 to 919 from March to May

Regional jobseeker benefits ↑ 46 over the week to 19 June

Trade Me job ads recover from lockdown lows

Strong demand for new dwellings continue

Building consent values remain strong by historical standards

Strong house price growth continues across the Region

Local retail spending falls 41.6% in April vs 54.6% fall across NZ

Retail spending picks up post lockdown

Tourism spending for the year ended April 2019 falls as expected

• Ruapehu District ↓ 11.1%
• Whanganui District ↓ 6.4%
• Rangitikei District ↓ 5.6%
• Manawatū District ↓ 6.0%
• Palmerston North City ↓ 5.2%
• Tararua District ↓ 10.5%
• Horowhenua ↓ 10.7%
• Manawatū-Whanganui Region ↓ 7.4%
• New Zealand ↓ 6.9%

Tourism spending for the year ended April 2019 falls as expected

RTO

April-2020 Domestic spend April-2020 International spend April-2020 Total spend Percent change in total spend from April-2019 Percent change in total spend from Year to April-2019

Auckland Tourism, Events and Economic Development (ATEED) $40m $30m $69m

• 89%
• 5%

Central Economic Development Agency (CEDA) $3m $1m $4m

• 91%
• 8%

Destination Fiordland $0m $0m $0m

• 99%
• 20%

Destination Great Lake Taupo $3m $0m $3m

• 95%
• 8%

Destination Kaikoura $0m $0m $0m

• 96%
• 11%

Destination Marlborough $2m $1m $2m

• 94%
• 8%

Destination Queenstown $2m $2m $4m

• 98%
• 10%

Destination Rotorua $3m $1m $3m

• 96%
• 12%

Destination Wairarapa $2m $2m $4m

• 77%

0% Lake Wanaka Tourism $2m $2m $4m

• 92%
• 8%

Mackenzie Region $1m $0m $1m

• 98%
• 12%

Nelson Regional Development Agency (NRDA) $3m $1m $4m

• 93%
• 11%

Visit Ruapehu $2m $0m $2m

• 85%
• 12%

Visit Whanganui $1m $0m $2m

• 87%
• 7%

Wellington Regional Economic Development Agency (WREDA) $17m $7m $25m

• 88%
• 8%

GDP expected to contract by 3.5% over 2020 due to lockdown vs 3.7% for NZ

Vulnerabilities continue in service industries with continued pressure on key sectors

• Services sector businesses and employment are most vulnerable to the impacts of

COVID-19 however data post lockdown is looking positive.

• Construction sector has some vulnerability but the strong pipeline of work will

support the sector. Protecting capacity is vital to the economic recovery.

• Global and domestic food demand is supporting our rural sector. Some

vulnerabilities persist due to the impacts of drought and global economic volatility.

• The manufacturing sector remains vulnerable to global demand conditions and

supply side disruptions. Data indicates agri-food manufacturing is holding up.

On the bright side…

• The Manawatū District economy started from a

position of strength.

• Strength in agri-food production and government

employment and limited exposure to international tourism adds to our resilience.

• Global demand conditions remain supportive of local economic activity.
• Indicators show partial recovery of business and consumer spending and business and

consumer confidence. House prices and levels of private planned investment remain strong.

• Fiscal stimulus and high levels of planned government investment will drive household

and business confidence and support levels of employment (as long as tangible progress is made and soon).

Reducing uncertainty crucial to support economic recovery

Available resources

• Pride in our economy - https://pride-in-our-economy-manawatudc.hub.arcgis.com/
• CEDA – business support - https://ceda.nz/covid-19-business-support/
• CEDA economic dashboard - https://ceda.nz/covid-19-business-support/covid-19-

impact-dashboard/

• Feilding & District Promotions - http://www.f/co.nz/
• Manawatū-Whanganui Regional Indicators – https://www.mwri.co.nz
• StatsNZ and RBNZ dashboards - https://t.co/OKBDEcRaJ0

and https://www.stats.govt.nz/experimental/covid-19-data-portal

The outlook for forestry is improving