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Sep 28, 2023 146 likes •471 views

Making sense of energy in a chaotic environment by Chris Yelland CEng www.ee.co.za Outline Economic and social landscape Financial risks and issues Power generation landscape Chaotic planning, and the chaotic future outlook

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Making sense of energy in a chaotic environment

by Chris Yelland CEng www.ee.co.za

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Outline

 Economic and social landscape  Financial risks and issues  Power generation landscape  Chaotic planning, and the chaotic future outlook  Grid defection and the utility death spiral  Critical success factors in an uncertain world  Business continuity in a chaotic electricity environment  Energy crisis? What crisis?  Opportunities unlimited

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Economic and social landscape

 Low GDP growth  Weakening currency  Low productivity  Low competitiveness  High levels of poverty  Labour unrest  Rising population  Increased urbanisation  Poor education  Skills deficit  High unemployment  Poor service delivery

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Financial issues and risks

 Uncertainty  Rates of exchange  Interest rates  Oil and gas prices  Changing structure of SA economy  Reduced energy intensity in SA  Supply and demand forecasts and planning  Timing (economic, commodity cycle)

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Power generation landscape

 Over dependence on coal as primary energy source  Over dependence on Eskom as the dominant monopoly

supplier

 Aging fleet of coal-fired power stations  Time and cost over-runs on new mega power plants  Rising electricity prices and declining electricity demand  Shortages and surpluses of generation capacity  Eskom financial and environmental sustainability

problems

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Chaotic planning

 No published Integrated Energy Plan (IEP)  No published Gas Utilisation Master Plan (GUMP)  Outdated Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity

IRP2010-2030

 Massive cost and time overruns at Medupi, Kusile

and Ingula

 Poor maintenance planning  Under-supply and over-capacity

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The chaotic future outlook

 An uncertain world with an unpredictable future  Inability to forecast electricity demand for even 5

years ahead, let alone 20, 30, 50 or 100 years

 Disruptive technologies

– Solar PV – Energy storage – Electric vehicles – Smart grid – ICT and Apps

 Price uncertainty and the learning curve

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Critical success factors in an uncertain world

 From central planning to market driven  From public sector utilities to private sector  From monopolistic to competitive  From mega-projects to smaller projects  From central to distributed generation  From inflexible to flexible  From slow dinosaurs to nimble adapters  From the fossil age to the knowledge economy  Evolution and survival of the fittest

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Grid defection and the utility death spiral

 Rising utility electricity prices  Declining electricity demand  The electricity supply cake get smaller  Rising utility electricity prices  Grid defection  The utility share of the cake gets smaller  Rising utility electricity prices  More grid defection…

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Commercial Cactus Farming in South Africa

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UHURU: BIOMASS TO 55 MWE ELECTRICITY

BioGas Digester Compress BioGas

20 MWe +

Zero Emission Cost Effective Energy Supply UHURU Process – Fermentable BioMass to Energy

Fermentable BioMass

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Energy crisis? What crisis?

 So do we have an energy crisis in South Africa?  We are rich in natural energy…  We are rich in human energy…  We have a youthful population with lots of unfulfilled

potential…

 We do NOT have an energy crisis, we have a

management crisis!

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