Major Development in Public Opinion Professor Laura Stoker, UC - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Major Development in Public Opinion Professor Laura Stoker, UC Berkeley San Ramon Valley Democratic Club June 28, 2018.

Party Identification and the 2018 Midterm Elections

Source: Trump owns a shrinking Republican party. Brookings. Elaine Kamarck, Alexander R. Podkul, and Nicholas W. ZepposThursday, June 14, 2018

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Percent

Partisan Affiliation 1994-2017 (Pew data, registered voters only)

Republican Democrat

Stoker chart

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1990

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Republican Democrat

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From the NYT "The Ways that the 2016 Election was Perfectly Normal."

0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Self-Reported Voter Turnout among Democratic and Republican Identifiers

(Weighted ANES Data)

Democrats Republicans

Stoker chart

Voter Identification Laws and the Suppression of Minority Votes Zoltan Hajnal, University of California, San Diego Nazita Lajevardi, University of California, San Diego Lindsay Nielson, Bucknell University Journal of Politics January 2017 Graphic from WAPO news article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/02/15/do-voter-identification-laws- suppress-minority-voting-yes-we-did-the-research/?utm_term=.aef1abc3fc5b

6/23/2018 Do Republicans Really Have A Big Turnout Advantage In Midterms? | FiveThirtyEight https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-republicans-really-have-a-big-turnout-advantage-in-midterms/ 2/5

And it’s true generally too. But it masks an important factor: which party holds the White House. Take a look at the table below. It shows — for every midterm since 1978 — the difference between Democrats and Republicans in self-identified party identification among all registered voters compared with those who voted in the midterms (i.e. the turnout margin or advantage).

A closer look at the Republican midterm turnout advantage

The shift toward the GOP in party identification margin from all registered voters to those who voted in the midterm election

REPUBLICAN MIDTERM TURNOUT ADVANTAGE UNDER A DEM. PRESIDENT UNDER A GOP PRESIDENT

1978 (Carter) +6 — 1982 (Reagan) — +1 1986 (Reagan) — None 1990 (H.W. Bush) — +3 1994 (Clinton) +6 — 1998 (Clinton) +3 — 2002 (W. Bush) — +2 2006 (W. Bush) — None 2010 (Obama) +6 — 2014 (Obama) +5 — Average +5 +1 Median +6 +1

Turnout is self-reported for 1982, 1994, 1998 and 2002. Turnout is from verified voter files for all other years.

1 2 3

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1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 Seats Won Votes Cast

Votes Cast vs Seats Won U.S. House Republicans, 1992-2016

Stoker chart, data compiled by Brookings https://www.brookings.edu/multi-chapter-report/vital-statistics-on-congress/

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0

Seats Won Votes Cast Votes Cast versus Seats Won U.S. House Democrats, 1992-2016

Stoker chart, data compiled by Brookings https://www.brookings.edu/multi-chapter-report/vital-statistics-on-congress/

Source: The Upshot: Why Democrats Can't Win the House

From 2017 Brennan Center for Justice report, “Extreme Maps,” by Laura Royden and Michael Li. “This decade’s congressional maps are consistently biased in favor of Republicans. In the 26 states that account for 85 percent of congressional districts, Republicans derive a net benefit of at least 16-17 congressional seats in the current Congress from partisan bias. This advantage represents a significant portion of the 24 seats Democrats would need to pick up to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018 Just seven states account for almost all of the bias.”

50 100 150 200

1997 2001 2002 2004 2005 2009 2012 2013 2016 2017

148 162 168 169 180 182 190 186 185 195

123 139 143 144 147 150 146 159 160 168 164 134 124 122 108 103 99 90 90 72

Swing (D+5 to R+5) Democratic (D+5 or Greater) Republican (R+5 or Greater)



1997

After 1996 Election



2001 After 2000

Election



2002

After 2001 Redistricting



2004 After TX

Redistricting



2005

After 2004 Election



2009 After 2008

Election



2012

After 2011 Redistricting



2013

After 2012 Election



2016

After FL/NC/VA Redistricting



2017

After 2016 Election

The Incredible Shrinking Swing Seat, 1997 - 2017

Source: https://www.cookpolitical.com/introducing-2017-cook-political-report-partisan-voter-index

12 Trump Democrats 23 Clinton Republicans

The House has become well-sorted out: only 35 of 435 districts “crossed over” to vote for presidential and House candi- dates of opposite parties, down from 108 in 1996. Today, there are 23 Republicans sitting in districts Clinton carried, and 12 Democrats sitting in districts Trump carried. However, this is slightly higher than the record low of 26 “crossover districts” following the 2012 election. Source: https://www.cookpolitical.com/introducing-2017- cook-political-report-partisan-voter-index

D+10 or Greater D+5.0 to D+9.9 D+2.0 to D+4.9 D+1.9 to R+1.9 R+2.0 to R+4.9 R+5.0 to R+9.9 R+10.0 or Greater Democrat-Held Seats

118 47 11 13 3 1 1

Republican-Held Seats

3 2 18 25 61 132

Total

118 50 13 31 28 62 133 168 72 195

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From Cook Political Report. Partisanship in the district based on Cook PVI, which looks at voting in last two presidential elections.

Map 1: Current party control of Senate Class I, up for election in 2018

Source: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-republican-senate-edge/ 10/17

Note: Senate Democrats are defending 10 seats in states Trump won in the presidential race, while Senate Republicans are defending only one seat in a Clinton-won state, held by Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV).

Source: CNN Key Races: Democrats Tough Senate Map

Growing Differences between Democrats and Republicans

54 45 64 63 46 30 1994 2017

Rep/Lean Rep Dem/Lean Dem

66 56 74 69 59 45 1994 2017 53 38 63 65 44 18 1994 2017 47 43 58 69 37 24 1994 2017 43 36 54 52 35 24 1994 2017 59 49 66 75 53 28 1994 2017 63 26 64 44 62 12 1994 2017 49 24 58 37 42 13 1994 2017 36 30 44 53 28 13 1994 2017 33 37 39 58 29 20 1994 2017

The subsequent chapters explore Americans’ attitudes across individual political values and policy

Growing gaps between Republicans and Democrats across domains

% who say … Government regulation

• f business usually

does more harm than good Government is almost always wasteful and inefficient Poor people have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return The government today can't afford to do much more to help the needy Most corporations make a fair and reasonable amount of profit Blacks who can't get ahead in this country are mostly responsible for their

• wn condition

Immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing and health care Homosexuality should be discouraged by society The best way to ensure peace is through military strength Stricter environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy

Source: Survey conducted June 8-18 and June 27-July 9, 2017. PEW RESEARCH CENTER

Democrats and Republicans more ideologically divided than in the past

Distribution of Democrats and Republicans on a 10-item scale of political values

Notes: Ideological consistency based on a scale of 10 political values questions (see methodology).The blue area in this chart represents the ideological distribution of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents; the red area of Republicans and Republican-leaning

• independents. The overlap of these two distributions is shaded purple.

Source: Survey conducted June 8-18, 2017. PEW RESEARCH CENTER

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Percent Identifying as Democrat Gender Gap in Party Identification--% Democrat (Pew data) Men Women

Stoker chart.

Source: Abramowitz and Webster 2018. Negative Partisanship: Why Americans Dislike Parties but Act like Rabid Partisans

Source: Abramowitz and Webster 2018. Negative Partisanship: Why Americans Dislike Parties but Act like Rabid Partisans

Pew 2018 report on Generations.

Selected charts from Pew report on generations from March 2018

Growing Partisan Antipathy

44% 1994 2017 Very unfavorable Unfavorable 81% 16% 57% 17% 68% 81% 45% 1994 2017 Very unfavorable Unfavorable

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Rising tide of partisan antipathy

% of Democrats and Democratic leaners who have a ____ opinion of the Republican Party % of Republicans and Republican leaners who have a _____ opinion of the Democratic Party

Note: Data shown are yearly averages. QA15. Source: Survey conducted June 8-18, 2017. PEW RESEARCH CENTER

Source: Abramowitz and Webster 2018. Negative Partisanship: Why Americans Dislike Parties but Act like Rabid Partisans.

Source: Abramowitz and Webster 2018. Negative Partisanship: Why Americans Dislike Parties but Act like Rabid Partisans

.1 .2 .3 Proportion Displeased

1960 2008

Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans

Inter−Party Marriage

Notes: Plot shows the proportion of Republican (Democrat) survey respondents who would be displeased if their child married a Democrat (Republican). The data for 1960 comes from Almond and Verba (1960), while the data for 2008 comes from YouGov (2008).

Source: "Polarization in 2016" by Matthew Gentzkow

.2 .4 .6 Proportion

Intelligent Selfish

1960 2008 1960 2008

Trait Raitings

In Out

Notes: Plot shows the proportion of survey respondents who viewed the members of their own party (In) and their opposing party (Out) as intelligent and selfish. The data for 1960 comes from Almond and Verba (1960), while the data for 2008 comes from YouGov (2008).

Figure 10

Source: "Polarization in 2016" by Matthew Gentzkow

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Growing Distrust in Government and the Media

Figure 1 Percentage Trusting the U.S. Government over Time Note: Entries are the weighted percentage of ANES face-to-face respondents saying that they trust the government most or all of the time.

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Original Question New Question

Source: Citrin and Stoker 2018, "Political Trust in a Cynical Era"

Figure 2 Confidence in U.S. Institutions over Time

1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Supreme Court Executive Branch U.S. Congress

GSS Data. Source: Citrin and Stoker 2018, "Political Trust in a Cynical Era"

Figure 5 Percentage Trusting the Government Among Co-partisans, Out-partisans, and Independents

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Copartisans Independents Outpartisans

ANES Data. Source: Citrin and Stoker 2018, "Political Trust in a Cynical Era"

Source: Citrin and Stoker 2018, "Political Trust in a Cynical Era"