Macro-Industrial Working Group Meeting 2: Industrial updates and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

www.eia.gov

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Independent Statistics & Analysis

Macro-Industrial Working Group Meeting 2: Industrial updates and Preliminary results

Macro Industrial Working Group (MIWG) Industrial Team: Kelly Perl, Team Leader; Peter Gross, Susan Hicks, Paul Otis February 18, 2016 | Washington, DC

Preliminary Results. Do not Disseminate.

AEO2016 additions for the Industrial Demand Module (IDM)

• Technology choice models complete; end of 5 year effort
• Benchmarking improvements

– Individual industry benchmarking of tables complete – On-going effort to coordinate reporting and benchmarking with refinery model (LFMM)

• Data updates
• Regulation updates

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 2

Technology choice for process flow industries

• Allow for technology choice within individual process flows for energy-

intensive industries (e.g., anode production for primary aluminum smelting)

• All submodules complete: Cement & Lime (AEO2012), Aluminum

(AEO2013), Glass (AEO2014) , Steel (AEO2016), Pulp & Paper (AEO2016)

• Benefits of Technology choice models

– Flexibility in modeling primary vs. secondary processing – Allows for an explicit industrial energy efficiency side case – Allows for technology deployment based on economics of capital and fuel costs

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 3

Data updates & regulation

• Data

– Economic Census (2012) for nonmanufacturing – completed – Calibration to achieve greater precision in historic data and benchmarking; will start with natural gas – Did complete 860/923 CHP data update this year for 2013 & 2014

• Regulation updates

– Updated motor efficiencies to reflect latest motor efficiency standards & pump standards – Clean Power Plan: Part of AEO2016 Reference Case; IDM does not model, but responds to price changes that other modules cause

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 4

Industrial results Excludes Refining

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 5

Industrial energy consumption higher for AEO2016 reference case on higher out-year shipments

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 Source: AEO2016 runs Ref2016.0214a & Ref2016.0214a_nocpp; AEO2015 Reference case 6

18 20 22 24 26 28 30 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Industrial Energy consumption, 2012-2040

Ref2016.0214a Ref2016.0214a_nocpp AEO2015 Reference Case

quadrillion Btu

Industrial natural gas consumption higher for AEO2016 reference case; bulk chemicals largely responsible

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 Source: AEO2016 runs Ref2016.0214a & Ref2016.0214a_nocpp; AEO2015 Reference case 7

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Industrial Natural Gas consumption, 2012-2040

Ref2016.0214a Ref2016.0214a_nocpp AEO2015 Reference Case

quadrillion Btu

Industrial natural gas consumption and petroleum shares increase modestly; other fuel shares decrease modestly

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 Source: AEO2016 run Ref2016.0214a 8

5 10 15 20 25 30 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Preliminary AEO2016 Industrial Energy Consumption by Fuel

Coal NaturalGas Purchased Electricity Petroleum

quadrillion Btu

AEO2016 CHP generation lower owing to model changes & new history

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 Source: Ref2016.0214a; AEO2015 Reference case 9

• 20

40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

CHP Generation AEO2016 v AEO2015

Ref2016.0214a AEO2015 Reference Case

billion kWh

AEO2016 CHP generation – renewables have higher relative share because of paper modelling changes

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 Source: Ref2016.0214a 10

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Preliminary AEO2016 CHP Generation by Fuel

Renewables Coal Petroleum& Other NaturalGas

billion kWh

Individual industry results

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 11

Bulk chemicals energy consumption considerably higher in AEO2016; shipments higher in out years

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 Source: Ref2016.0214a; AEO2015 Reference case 12

• 2,000

4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Bulk Chemicals Energy Consumption AEO2016 v AEO2015

Ref2016.0214a AEO2015 Reference Case

trillion Btu

Bulk chemicals feedstock consumption much higher in AEO2016, especially for natural gas

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 Source: Ref2016.0214a; AEO2015 Reference case 13

• 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

AEO2016 Bulk Chemicals Feedstocks

HGL Naphtha & other petrochem feedstocks NaturalGas

trillion Btu

• 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

AEO2015 Bulk Chemicals Feedstocs

HGL NaturalGas Naphtha & other petrochem feedstocks

trillion Btu

Paper shipments and accounting for recycled steam in new model explain AEO2016 vs. AEO2015 energy differences

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 Source: Ref2016.0214a; AEO2015 Reference case 14

1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Paper Energy consumption AEO2016 v AEO2015

Ref2016.0214a AEO2015 Reference Case

trillion Btu

10.50 11.00 11.50 12.00 12.50 13.00 13.50 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Paper Energy Intensity AEO2016 v AEO2015

Ref2016.0214a AEO2015 Reference Case

trillion Btu/billion 2009 USD

Paper: Renewables largest share of energy consumption; relatively higher renewable CHP for AEO2016

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 Source: Ref2016.0214a 15

• 250

500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Paper Energy Intensity by Fuel, AEO2016

Renewables Coal NaturalGas Purchased Electricity

trillion Btu

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016

Iron & Steel: Lower near term shipments, stagnant blast furnace additions explain different AEO2016 energy consumption

Source: Ref2016.0214a; AEO2015 Reference case 16

800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Iron & Steel Energy Consumption AEO2016 v AEO2015

Ref2016.0214a AEO2015 Reference Case

trillion Btu

Iron & Steel: Capacity mothballed in early prediction years, starts coming back online in early 2020s

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 Source: Ref2016.0214a 17

• 200

400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

Iron & Steel Energy Consumption by Fuel, AEO2016

Petroleum Coal NaturalGas Purchased Electricity

trillion Btu

Iron & Steel: almost all growth is in electric arc furnaces

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 Source: Ref2016.0214a 18

• 20

40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040

BF/BOF & EAF Capacity

EAF BF/BOF

Capacity Index 2012 Total =100

Iron & Steel: Direct Reduced Iron capacity adopted relatively early

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 Source: Ref2016.0214a 19

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

DRI (Direct Reduced Iron) Capacity

Capacity Index 2015 Total =100

Memo on this meeting and presentation can be found here in about a month:

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/workinggroup/macroindustrial/

20 Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016

Thank you for your attention!

Macro Team: Kay Smith (202) 586-1132 | kay.smith@eia.gov Vipin Arora (202) 586-1048 | vipin.arora@eia.gov Russell Tarver (202) 586-3991 | russell.tarver@eia.gov Elizabeth Sendich (202) 586-7145 | elizabeth.sendich@eia.gov Industrial Team: EIA-OECEAIndustrialTeam@eia.gov Kelly Perl (202) 586-1743 Peter Gross (202) 586-8822 Susan Hicks (202) 586-4388 Paul Otis (202) 586-2306

Industrial Team, MIWG #2, February 18, 2016 21