Macquarie Group Limited
Presentation to Debt Investors
November 2014
Macquarie Group Limited Presentation to Debt Investors November - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Macquarie Group Limited Presentation to Debt Investors November 2014 Disclaimer The material in this presentation has been prepared by Macquarie Group Limited ABN 94 122 169 279 (Macquarie) and is general background information about
November 2014
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The material in this presentation has been prepared by Macquarie Group Limited ABN 94 122 169 279 (Macquarie) and is general background information about Macquarie’s activities current as at the date of this presentation. This information is given in summary form and does not purport to be complete. Information in this presentation, including forecast financial information, should not be considered as advice or a recommendation to investors or potential investors in relation to holding, purchasing or selling securities or other financial products or instruments and does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Before actingonany information you should consider the appropriateness of the information having regard to these matters, any relevant offer document and in particular, you should seek independent financialadvice. All securities and financial product or instrument transactions involve risks, which include (among others) the risk of adverse
This presentation may contain forward looking statements including statements regarding our intent, belief or current expectations with respect to Macquarie’s businesses and operations, market conditions, results of operation and financial condition, capital adequacy, specific provisions and risk management practices. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. Macquarie does not undertake any obligation to publicly release the result of any revisionstothese forward looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. While due care has been used in the preparation of forecast information, actual results may vary in a materially positive or negative manner. Forecasts and hypothetical examples are subject to uncertainty and contingencies outsideMacquarie’s control. Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. Unless otherwise specified all information is for the half year ended 30 September 2014. Certainfinancial information in this presentation is prepared on a different basis to the Macquarie Group Limited Financial Report, which is prepared in accordance with Australian Accounting Standards.Where financial information presented within this presentation does not comply with Australian Accounting Standards,a reconciliation to the statutory information isprovided. This report provides further detail in relation to key elements of Macquarie Group Limited’s financial performance and financialposition.It also provides an analysis of the funding profile of the Groupbecausemaintaining the structural integrity of the Group's balance sheet requires active management of both asset and liability portfolios. Active management of the funded balance sheet enables the Group to strengthen its liquidity and funding position. Any additional financial information in this presentation which is not included in the Macquarie Group Limited Financial Report was not subject to independent audit or review by PricewaterhouseCoopers.
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Overview
Financial Results
FY15 Outlook
Capital and Funding
Appendices
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Note: Unless otherwise noted, all data is as at 30 September 2014.
New Zealand 3 locations Australia 9 locations Africa 2 locations Latin America 3 locations Asia 14 locations Middle East 2 locations Europe 12 locations North America 21 locations Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities Banking Financial Services Macquarie Capital Corporate Asset Finance Macquarie Securities Group Macquarie Funds Group Macquarie Group
APRA primary
regulator for MBL & MGL
Market Capitalisation of
as at 30 Sep 2014
14,138
employees,
countries
~A$425bn
assets under management as at 30 Sep 2014
MBL A/A2/A
credit rating
in Net Profit for 1H14
Macquarie Group Overview Global Locations Macquarie Group in Numbers
Global provider of banking, financial advisory, investment and funds management services
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Equity Debt and Hybrid Equity Debt and Equity Debt and Equity Debt and Hybrid Equity Non-Bank Group Macquarie Bank Limited (MBL) Bank Group
capital and liquidity management arrangements
Macquarie Group Limited (MGL)
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20 40 60 80 100 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Savings and loan crisis US banks capital losses Global debt crisis US recession $A floated MBL established First listed property trust Enter stockbroking Stock market crash London office
Hills Motorway Mortgage securitisation Global real estate crash Recession
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1H15 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
Hill Samuel UK
in Sydney Currency Crisis Recession MBL listed BT Australia acquired Sydney Airport ING Acquired Asian Financial Crisis Russian Debt Crisis Dot Com crash 9/11 US Recession SARS Thames Water Giuliani Capital GFC Constellation Tristone Delaware FPK Blackmont Sal Opp. ILFC GMAC Presidio Innovest REGAL Onstream Orion Securities CIT Systems Leasing Group Restructure Significant Market Disruption
European rail leasing ING IM Korea GE Capital’s Premium Funding business
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FY08 FY14 Operating Income 8,248 8,132 Operating Expenses 6,043 6,026 NPBT 2,205 2,106
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Annuity vs Market Facing Income FY08 Annuity vs Market Facing Income FY14
Annuity 32% Market facing 68% Annuity 74% Market facing 26%
Annuity income represents the % contribution to net profit before tax after profit share for MFG, CAF and BFS. Market facing represents the % contribution to net profit before tax after profit share for MSG, MacCap and FICC.
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diverse range of capabilities and products, including: – Infrastructure and real asset management – Securities investment management – Tailored investment solutions over funds and listed equities
using AUM data from the Global Billion Dollar Club, published by HedgeFund Intelligence, as at 31 Dec 13. 4. For more information about these awards, the issuers of these awards, their methodologies, and other important information about these awards, please visit: http://www.macquarie.com.au/mgl/au/mfg/mim/about-us/awards. 5. Lonsec/Money Management Fund Manager of the Years awards 2014 and Professional Planner / Zenith Fund Awards 2014.
No.2 alternative asset manager for pension funds globally3
Macquarie Investment Management Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets Macquarie Specialised Investment Solutions
8 Lipper Awards in 2014 across the US and Europe4 No.1 Infrastructure Investor globally2 Asia New Stars No.1 Fund awarded Best Global Equities Fund – Emerging & Regional Markets4,5
AUM: $A307b1 AUM: $A114b1 AUM: $A2b1
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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Sep-14 Fixed income Direct infrastructure Equities Cash Direct real estate Currency Other
investments in the infrastructure and real assets business offset by the impact of the formation of the Jackson Square Partners joint venture and the management buyout of the MIM Private Markets business
$Ab
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solutions to clients through the cycles
– provides primary financing to clients and invests in credit assets in secondary markets
motor vehicles, technology, healthcare, manufacturing, industrial, energy, rail and mining equipment
different growth phases
Leading market participant in bespoke primary lending; niche acquirer of secondary loans Motor Vehicles Lending2 Aircraft Portfolio: $A8.6b Portfolio: $A10.0b Portfolio: $A3.8b One of North America’s largest independent lessors
equipment One of the largest providers of motor vehicle finance in Australia Rail Equipment Finance Meters Portfolio: $A1.2b Portfolio: $A2.4b Portfolio: $A0.9b Mining Equipment Portfolio: $A0.6b
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banking, wealth management and business banking products and services
white label arrangements as well as Macquarie branded offerings
Mortgages and credit cards Deposits Full service retail broking Wrap Business banking Insurance
No.1 for Cash and Term Deposits in the CoreData SMSF Service Provider Awards 20142 Australian mortgage portfolio $A19.8b¹ Macquarie ranked No.1 in Brokers on Non-majors 2014 survey by Australian broker2 Macquarie Life awarded five star status for 6th consecutive year by Beaton Research
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Asia-Pacific foundations covering sales, research, ECM, execution and derivatives activities
South Africa and Canada with offerings in US and Europe. Specialised derivatives in key locations globally
resources (mining and energy), industrials and financial institutions
European Institutional Investors – Australian Equities.
Corporate Access Research Derivatives Execution Trading Equity capital markets Equity finance
1,013 staff1 across 19 countries 25+ years Knowledge and experience in Asia-Pacific No.1 for Australian Equities in Australia2 No.1 warrants market share Singapore3 No.3 in Thailand3 No.1 for Australian Equities in US and Europe4
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M&A, debt and equity capital markets, and principal investments
renewables; resources (mining and energy); real estate; telecommunications, media, entertainment and technology; industrials and financial institutions
twelve months to 30 September 2014, including Best Investment Bank (Australia)1 and Best M&A House (Australia)2
No.1 Australia for IPOs4 Best M&A House Australia 20145 and Domestic Equity House Australia 20146 No.1 ANZ announced and completed M&A deals3
Financial Institutions Industrials Infrastructure, Utilities & Renewables Real Estate Resources Telecommunications, Media, Entertainment & Technology MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS PROJECT FINANCE EQUITY CAPITAL MARKETS DEBT CAPITAL MARKETS PRIVATE CAPITAL MARKETS PRINCIPAL INVESTMENTS
UK Deal of the Year7 Most innovative investment bank8
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provider of finance, risk solutions and market access to producers/consumers and financial institutions/investors
LNG, NGLs, power, oil, coal, base metals, iron
Canada and Latin America, growing presence in Asia and EMEA
markets, high yield and distressed debt
Metals markets Energy markets Asian and emerging markets Futures
30+ years in Metals and Futures markets 20+ years in Agricultural and FX markets Consistently ranked No.1 in Agricultural and Softs1 10+ years in Energy markets No.4 physical gas marketer in North America2
Fixed income and currency markets Credit markets Agricultural markets Metals and energy capital
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reference to capital
Business heads responsible for identifying risks within their businesses and ensuring these are managed appropriately. Seek a clear analysis of the risks before taking decisions. Risk management approach based
worst case outcomes and determining whether risks can be tolerated. Adopted for all material risk types and
Risk Management Group (RMG) signs
For material proposals, RMG opinion sought at the early stage in decision making process, and independent input from RMG on risk and return is included in the approval document submitted to senior management.
Ownership of risk at the business level Understanding worst case
Requirement for independent sign-off by Risk Management
well over the past few years
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20 40 60 80 100 120 <-35 <-30 <-25 <-20 <-15 <-10 <-5 <0 >0 >5 >10 >15 >20 >25 >30 >35
Days A$m
Daily Trading Profit and Loss FY10 - FY15¹
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
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2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
1.0 1.5 P&L volatility
Investment Banks
10 year earnings volatility¹ (MQG vs investment banks)
Nomura UBS Citi CS DB Barc MS GS JPM MGL
Note: This page compares the historical earnings volatility among certain firms, and is not intended to represent that Macquarie has a comparable business model, risks or prospects to any other firm mentioned.
Macquarie Group 10-year earnings CAGR: 10%
(10-year horizon)
0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 P&L volatility Fund managers
10 year earnings volatility¹ (MQG vs fund managers)
Blackrock Brookfield AM AllianceBernstein Schroders MGL Eaton Vance
Presentation to Debt Investors November 2014
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– Increase on 1H14 stronger than previously expected given the timing of transactions
– Macquarie’s annuity-style businesses (Macquarie Funds Group, Corporate and Asset Finance, and Banking and Financial Services) continued to perform well with 1H15 combined net profit contribution1 up 38% on 1H14 and up 23% on 2H14 – Macquarie’s capital markets facing businesses’ (Macquarie Securities, Macquarie Capital, and Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities) combined net profit contribution up 11% on 1H14 and down 43% on a 2H14 which benefited from strong results in the Energy Markets business
(40% franked)2
capital of $A2.57 per share.
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1H15 $Am 2H14 $Am 1H14 $Am 1H15 v 1H14
Net operating income 4,298 4,453 3,679
17%
Total operating expenses (3,177) (3,157) (2,869)
11%
Operating profit before income tax 1,121 1,296 810
38%
Income tax expense (432) (520) (307)
41%
Profit attributable to non-controlling interests (11) (12) (2) Profit attributable to MGL shareholders 678 764 501
35%
Earnings per share $A2.13 $A2.35 $A1.50
42%
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0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 2H12 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15
$A
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2H12 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15
$Am
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 2H12 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15
$A
250 500 750 1,000 2H12 1H13 2H13 1H14 2H14 1H15
$Am
1H15 Profit of $A678m
1H15 up 35% on 1H14
1H15 EPS of $A2.13
1H15 up 42% on 1H14
1H15 Operating income of $A4,298m
1H15 up 17% on 1H14
1H15 DPS of $A1.30
1H15 up 30% on 1H14
SYD Special Dividend1
PAGE 24 Europe Amsterdam Dublin Frankfurt Geneva Glasgow London Luxembourg Moscow Munich Paris Vienna Zurich South Africa Cape Town Johannesburg Middle East Abu Dhabi Dubai Australia Adelaide Albury Brisbane Canberra Gold Coast Melbourne Perth Sunshine Coast Sydney New Zealand Auckland Christchurch Wellington Latin America Mexico City Ribeirao Preto Sao Paulo USA Atlanta Austin Boston Chicago Denver Detroit Houston Irvine Los Angeles Canada Calgary Montreal Greater Toronto Vancouver Manila Mumbai Seoul Shanghai Singapore Taipei Tokyo Asia Bangkok Beijing Gurgaon Hong Kong Hsin-Chu Jakarta Kuala Lumpur Miami Nashville New York Philadelphia Rolling Meadows San Diego San Francisco San Jose
Europe, Middle East & Africa2
Income: $A1,049m (25% of total) Staff: 1,335
Americas
Income: $A1,272m (30% of total) Staff: 2,706
Australia3
Income: $A1,451m (35% of total) Staff: 6,635
Asia
Income: $A419m (10% of total) Staff: 3,462
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Net profit contribution Operating Group FY07 – FY14 historical range FY07 – FY14 average FY14 FY15 outlook as announced in Sep 141 Update to FY15 outlook Macquarie Funds $A0.3b – $A1.1b $A0.7b $A1.1b Up on FY14 No change Corporate and Asset Finance $A0.1b – $A0.8b2 $A0.4b $A0.8b Broadly in line with FY14 No change Banking and Financial Services $A0.1b – $A0.3b3,4 $A0.2b4 $A0.3b4 Up on FY14 No change Macquarie Securities $A(0.2)b – $A1.2b $A0.4b $A0.1b Down on FY14 No change Macquarie Capital $A(0.1)b – $A1.6b $A0.5b $A0.3b Up on FY14 No change FICC $A0.5b – $A0.8b $A0.6b $A0.7b Broadly in line with FY14 No change Corporate – Compensation ratio to be consistent with historical levels – Based on present mix of income, currently expect FY15 tax rate to be broadly in line with FY14
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profit contribution1 from operating groups will be up on FY14, offsetting the FY14 realised gain relating to the SYD distribution
– Market conditions – The impact of foreign exchange – The cost of our continued conservative approach to funding and capital – Potential regulatory changes and tax uncertainties
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– Annuity-style income is provided by three significant businesses which are delivering superior returns following years of investment and recent acquisitions – Macquarie Funds, Corporate and Asset Finance and Banking and Financial Services – Three capital markets facing businesses well positioned to benefit from improvements in market condition with strong platforms and franchise positions – Macquarie Securities, Macquarie Capital and Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities
– Well matched funding profile with minimal reliance on short term wholesale funding – Surplus funding and capital available to support growth
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Operating Group APRA Basel III Capital
1
@ 8.5% ($Ab)
Annuity-style businesses 6.2
Return on Ordinary Equity2 Macquarie Funds Group 1.9 24% 20%3 Corporate and Asset Finance 2.8 Banking and Financial Services 1.5 Capital markets facing businesses 4.5
Return on Ordinary Equity2 Macquarie Securities 0.5 7% 15%-20% Macquarie Capital 1.3 FICC 2.7 Corporate and Other 1.1 Legacy Assets 0.3 Corporate 0.8 Total regulatory capital requirement @ 8.5% 11.8 Comprising: Ordinary Equity Hybrid 10.1 1.7 Add: Surplus Ordinary Equity 1.4 Total APRA Basel III capital supply (excluding BCN4) 13.2
ROE is based on Operating Group’s net profit contribution adjusted for indicative allocations of profit share, tax and other corporate
FY14, inclusively. 3. CAF excluded from 8-year average as not meaningful given the significant increase in scale of CAF’s platform
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Liquidity
Basel III Requirement Macquarie Policy Requirement 30 day combined ‘name and systemic’ crisis (LCR) LCR requirements will be effective from 1 Jan 2015 12 month combined ‘name and systemic’ crisis With Committed Liquidity Facility allocation in place, the Bank Group’s LCR would exceed 120%¹
Basel III Requirement Macquarie Policy Requirement Available Stable Funding > Required Stable Funding (NSFR) Term funding > term assets
Funding Leverage Ratio Capital
Basel III Requirement Macquarie Minimum Basel III CET1 Ratio + CCB – 7%² MBL Basel III capital ratios are well above the required minimum – 10.8% ‘Harmonised’ BIS CET1 ratio at 30 Sep 2014 and pro forma ratio of 11.6% including surplus held in Non-Bank Group Basel III Requirement Macquarie Policy Requirement Minimum Basel III Leverage Ratio 3%³ Macquarie’s Basel III Leverage Ratio as at 30 Sep 2014 - 5.5% (5.7% including BCN4)
industry consultation regarding its final form. APRA has not implemented a minimum leverage ratio requirement at this stage. 4. Pro forma including A$429 of BCN issued on 8 Oct 2014.
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– FY14 MEREP $A265m at a weighted average price of $A59.56 – 2H14 Dividend Reinvestment Plan $A63m at a weighted average price of $A59.94
and have been confirmed eligible for inclusion as Additional Tier 1 capital by APRA
for the 1H15 dividend and has reintroduced a discount to the prevailing market price1 of 1.5%
APRA, however, our current assessment is that Macquarie has sufficient capital to meet the minimum APRA capital requirements for Conglomerates
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3.0 3.0 2.5 1.4 1.5 1.8 4.1 4.1 2.5 2.9 0.5 0.4 (0.5) (1.6) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Harmonised Basel III at Mar 14 Business Growth Net Capital Generation Harmonised Basel III at Sep 14 APRA Basel III 'super equivalence' APRA Basel III at Sep 14 Issuance
Pro forma APRA Basel III at Sep 14
Group regulatory surplus: Basel III (Sep 14)
Group regulatory surplus at 7% RWAs Group regulatory surplus at 8.5% RWAs $Ab
$A429m Macquarie Bank Capital Notes (BCN) were issued
5 6 4
Mainly growth in BFS Mortgages Australia & CAF Leasing & Lending activities
$A2.9b (existing requirements3)
Calculated at 7% RWA, per the internal minimum Tier 1 ratio of the Bank Group. 4. ‘Harmonised’ Basel III estimates assume alignment with BIS in areas where APRA differs from the BIS. 5. Includes 1H15 P&L net of FY14 dividend, Share Based Payment reserve movement, FY14 MEREP & other movements in capital supply and requirements including the net impact of hedging employed to reduce the sensitivity of the Group’s capital position to FX translation movements. 6. APRA Basel III ‘super-equivalence’ includes full CET1 deductions of equity investments ($A0.6b); deconsolidated subsidiaries ($A0.5b); DTAs and other impacts ($A0.5b).
Based on 8.5% (minimum Tier 1 ratio + CCB), which is not required by APRA until 2016
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– Term assets covered by term funding, stable deposits and equity – Minimal reliance on short term wholesale funding markets
– $A4.7b mortgage and motor vehicle/equipment secured funding – $A4.1b senior unsecured debt issuance in the US market – $A1.6b senior unsecured debt issuance in Euro and Sterling markets – $A0.4b MBL private placements and structured note issuance – $A0.4b Macquarie Bank Capital Notes (BCN) issued on 8 Oct 14
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Liquidity Policy
period of liquidity stress: – a minimum twelve month period with constrained or no access to funding markets and with only a limited impact on franchise businesses
Liquidity Framework
as they fall due under a range of market conditions. Key tools include: – Scenario analysis – Unencumbered liquid asset holdings – Liability driven approach to balance sheet management
the Risk Management Group
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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Funding sources Funded assets
Equity and hybrids (13%) Retail deposits (36%) Wholesale deposits (4%) Other debt maturing in the next 12 mths (8%) ST wholesale issued paper (12%) Cash, liquids and self securitised assets (30%) Trading assets (17%) Loan assets > 1 year (35%) Debt maturing beyond 12 mths (27%) Equity investments and PPE (7%) Loan assets < 1 year (11%)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Funding sources Funded assets
Equity investments and PPE (8%) Loan assets > 1 year (33%) Loan assets < 1 year (13%) Trading assets (16%) Cash, liquids and self securitised assets (30%) Debt maturing beyond 12 mths (27%) Equity and hybrids (14%) Retail deposits (36%) Other debt maturing in the next 12 mths (9%) Wholesale deposits (5%) ST wholesale issued paper (9%)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Funding sources Funded assets
Equity and hybrids (13%) Debt maturing beyond 12 mths (29%) Retail deposits (36%) Wholesale deposits (4%) Other debt maturing in the next 12 mths (9%) ST wholesale issued paper (9%) Equity investments and PPE (7%) Loan assets > 1 year (34%) Loan assets < 1 year (12%) Trading assets (18%) Cash, liquids and self securitised assets (29%)
31 March 2014 30 September 2014 30 September 2013
These charts represent Macquarie Group Limited’s funded balance sheets at the respective dates noted above. For details regarding reconciliation of the funded balance sheet to the Group’s statutory balance sheet, refer to slide 55. 1. ‘Other debt maturing in the next 12 mths’ includes Structured Notes, Secured Funding, Bonds, Other Loans maturing within the next 12 months and Net Trade Creditors. 2. ‘Debt maturing beyond 12 mths’ includes Loan Capital. The BCN ($A0.4b) and MBL 3 year USD bond ($A2.0b) issuances completed during Oct 14 are excluded from balances reported at 30 Sep 14. 3. ‘Cash, liquids and self securitised assets’ includes self securitisation of repo eligible Australian mortgages originated by Macquarie. 4. ‘Loan Assets > 1 yr’ includes Debt Investment Securities and Operating Lease Assets. 5. ‘Equity Investments and PPE’ includes the Group’s co-investments in Macquarie-managed funds and equity investments.
3
$Ab
2 5 4 1
$Ab
2 5 4 1 3
$Ab
2 5 1 3 4
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Wholesale issued paper 12% Deposits - corporate and wholesale 4% Deposits - retail 36% Other loans 1% Structured notes 2% Secured funding 6% Senior credit facility 1% Bonds 21% Loan capital 4% Equity & Hybrid 13% 5 10 15 20 25 1-2 yrs <3 yrs <4 yrs <5 yrs 5 yrs+ Debt Loan capital Equity and hybrids
MGL term funding (drawn and undrawn1) maturing beyond one year (including equity and hybrids)
Diversity of MGL funding sources
weighted average term to maturity of 4.5 years
$Ab
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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 ($Ab) Retail Corporate/wholesale
growing its deposit base – 1.1 million retail clients, of whom circa 600,000 are depositors – Focus on the composition and quality of the deposit base – Continue to grow deposits in the CMA product which has an average account balance of $A43,000
medium enterprises.
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Macquarie Bank Limited Macquarie Group Limited Long- term rating Long- term rating
Short- term rating Long- term rating Long- term rating
Short- term rating Moody’s A2 Stable P-1 A3 Stable P-2 Fitch A Stable F-1 A- Stable F-2 S&P A Stable A-1 BBB Stable A-2
PAGE 40 JPMorgan Chase Bank Credit Suisse AG UBS AG Barclays Bank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs Group Bank of America Citibank Morgan Stanley Bank Macquarie Bank
Rating movement (notches)
AA- A+ A AA AA+ A- BBB+
Rating movement (notches)
Aa2 Aa3 A1 Aa1 AAA A2 Baa1 A3
JPMorgan Chase Bank UBS AG Deutsche Bank Credit Suisse AG Barclays Bank Bank of America Citibank Goldman Sachs Group Morgan Stanley Bank Macquarie Bank
Moody’s Ratings Movements from 1 May 2007 Standard & Poor’s Ratings Movements from 1 May 2007
As at 30 July 2014 *Goldman Sachs Group is used for comparison purposes. Goldman Sachs bank only rated by Standard & Poor’s from 2012.
2007 2014
Intra-period ratings movement
MBL has maintained its S&P ‘A’ rating for
YEARS
Presentation to Debt Investors November 2014
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Services) continued to perform well with 1H15 combined net profit contribution1 up 18% on 1H14 and up 3% on 2H14
combined net profit contribution up 4% on 1H14 and down 54% on a 2H14 which benefited from strong results in the Energy Markets business
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1H15 $Am 2H14 $Am 1H14 $Am 1H15 v 1H14
Net operating income 2,840 2,930 2,556
11%
Total operating expenses (2,145) (2,124) (1,967)
9%
Operating profit before income tax 695 806 589
18%
Income tax expense (290) (408) (213)
36%
Profit attributable to non-controlling interests (2) (2) (2) Distribution paid or provided for on: Macquarie Income Securities (9) (9) (9) Profit attributable to ordinary equity holders of MBL 394 387 365
8%
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Wholesale issued paper 14% Deposits - corporate and wholesale 4% Deposits - retail 42% Other loans 1% Structured notes 2% Secured funding 7% Net trade creditors 1% Bonds 15% Loan capital 3% Equity & Hybrids 11%
MBL term funding (drawn and committed but undrawn1) maturing beyond one year (including equity and hybrids)
Diversity of MBL funding sources
weighted average term to maturity of 3.7 years
$Ab 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 1-2yrs <3yrs <4yrs <5yrs 5yrs + Equity and hybrids Loan capital Debt
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The Australian economy is transitioning from mining investment to a pickup in non-mining activity and the export of expanded mining production. Thus far the transition is showing signs of fatigue, with the pickup in non-mining activity – especially business investment – patchy at best. The response from interest rate sectors has been strong, but looks to have run its course. — Consumer spending has been remarkably weak over the last three years. The decline in the A$ and rising household wealth should support an uplift in spending, however modest jobs growth, record low wages growth and subdued confidence are persistent headwinds. — Investors are continuing to respond to lower interest rates. Faced with falling term deposit rates, some investors have opted to pursue higher (gross) yielding investments in the equity market as well as the property
those markets where supply is most restricted, such as Sydney. The strength of investor participation has led to the RBA raising concerns about the housing market being ‘unbalanced’. — Australian government debt remains well below the levels seen in other developed economies. The current government is undertaking a program of fiscal consolidation to return the budget to balance by 2017/18 and build surpluses beyond. — Unlike other central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy rate remains relatively high at 2.50%. A move to adopt macroprudential policy measures may provide the RBA with additional flexibility on interest rates, should the economy weaken. The RBA maintains substantial scope to ease policy further in the event of a downward shock to growth. A period of stability in rates is likely to continue through 2015 until above trend growth resumes and the unemployment rate begins to decline. — The A$ eased back below parity in 2013, but remains elevated. The recent declines should provide a boost to profitability for corporates in Australia, increasing its competitiveness relative to its global peers, although it is crucial for the A$ to fall further to rebalance the economy. — Australia’s unemployment rate remains around 11-year high as jobs growth has moderated. Receding activity within the resource sector and weak growth in public sector demand is being partly offset by an improving residential construction upswing. — China will remain an important trading partner for Australia, but in a different way than before. Rather than driving mining investment in Australia, growing Asian middle class demand will be key for our export sector, including resource exports, tourism and food exports.
Source: ABS, DataStream, Macquarie Research, November 2014
4 6 8 10 12 Dec-83 Dec-89 Dec-95 Dec-01 Dec-07 Dec-13 Unemployment Rate %
2 4 6 Dec-89 Mar-96 Jun-02 Sep-08 Dec-14 QoQ YoY % Australian GDP Growth Trend 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Australian Dollar
AUD/USD QE1 QE3 QE2 QE1* QE2* *End QE3*
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Source: DataStream, ABS, Macquarie Research, November 2014.
10 20 30 40 50 60 10 20 30 40 50 60 Dec-98 Dec-01 Dec-04 Dec-07 Dec-10 Dec-13 Total Profits Profits Excluding Mining
$A bn $A bn
Quarterly 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Australian Dollar
AUD/USD
QE1 QE3 QE2 QE1* QE2* *End QE3*
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Source: ABS, Macquarie Research, November 2014
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Dec-83 Dec-88 Dec-93 Dec-98 Dec-03 Dec-08 Dec-13 Household Savings Rate % 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Sep-83 Sep-89 Sep-95 Sep-01 Sep-07 Sep-13 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Dwelling Completions Population growth 000's Population Growth and Housing Supply (Rolling annual total)
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Source: RBA, DataStream, IMF, Macquarie Research, November 2014
The RBA has further scope to cut rates and the government maintains low levels of debt compared to its peers
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Australia Euro area Japan United States United Kingdom % of
Net Debt to GDP 2012-2019
2 4 6 8 10 12 Jun-94 Jun-98 Jun-02 Jun-06 Jun-10 Jun-14 RBA Cash Rate FED Funds Rate BoJ Policy Rate RBNZ Cash Rate ECB Policy Rate BoE Repo Rate PBoC Policy Rate %
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5 10 15 20 25 1-2 yrs <3 yrs <4 yrs <5 yrs 5 yrs+ Debt Loan capital Equity and hybrids
Sep 14 $Ab Mar 14 $Ab Sep 13 $Ab Funding sources Negotiable certificates of deposits 1.7 1.9 2.2 Commercial paper 10.0 6.6 6.7 Net Trade Creditors 0.3 1.0
2.2 2.3 2.1 Secured funding 6.1 7.0 8.0 Bonds 20.3 19.3 16.9 Other loans 1.3 0.9 1.2 Senior credit facility 1.4 1.3 2.6 Retail deposits 35.3 33.3 33.1 Corporate and wholesale deposits 3.5 3.6 4.9 Loan capital1 3.6 3.5 3.4 Equity and hybrids2 12.2 11.9 12.7 Total funding sources 97.9 92.6 93.8 Funded assets Cash and liquid assets 21.2 19.1 21.5 Self Securitisation 7.9 7.4 6.2 Net trading assets 16.6 16.7 15.1 Loan assets < 1 year 11.2 11.9 12.0 Loan assets > 1 year 30.8 27.9 27.7 Debt investment securities 3.6 3.1 2.9 Co-investment in Macquarie-managed funds and other equity investments 4.7 4.7 6.1 Property, plant & equipment and intangibles 1.9 1.8 1.8 Net trade debtors
Total funded assets 97.9 92.6 93.8
weighted average term to maturity of 4.5 years MGL term funding (drawn and committed but undrawn3) maturing beyond one year (including equity and hybrids)
$A0.7b of undrawn term facilities for the Group.
$Ab
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Sep 14 $Ab Mar 14 $Ab Sep 13 $Ab Funding sources Negotiable certificates of deposits 1.7 1.9 2.2 Commercial paper 10.0 6.6 6.7 Net Trade Creditors 1.0 0.7
1.7 1.6 1.4 Secured funding 6.0 6.9 7.7 Bonds 13.0 11.3 10.5 Other loans 0.6 0.5 0.9 Retail deposits 35.3 33.3 33.1 Corporate and wholesale deposits 3.5 3.6 4.9 Loan capital1 2.5 2.5 2.4 Equity and hybrids2 9.4 9.5 9.4 Total funding sources 84.7 78.4 79.2 Funded assets Cash and liquid assets 19.5 17.3 19.4 Self securitisation 7.9 7.4 6.2 Net trading assets 15.2 15.4 13.9 Loan assets < 1 year 11.0 11.7 11.6 Loan assets > 1 year 29.8 26.9 26.7 Debt investment securities 2.7 2.6 2.8 Non-Bank Group deposit with MBL (3.7) (5.0) (3.6) Co-investment in Macquarie-managed funds and other equity investments 1.1 1.0 1.1 Property, plant & equipment and intangibles 1.2 1.1 1.2 Net trade debtors
Total funded assets 84.7 78.4 79.2
with a diversity of funding sources
weighted average term to maturity of 3.7 years
Europe, Australia and the UK MBL term funding (drawn and committed but undrawn3) maturing beyond one year (including equity and hybrids)
$Ab 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1-2yrs <3yrs <4yrs <5yrs 5yrs + Debt Loan capital Equity and hybrids
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2 4 6 8 1-2 yrs <3 yrs <4 yrs <5 yrs 5 yrs+ Debt Loan capital Equity
Sep 14 $Ab Mar 14 $Ab Sep 13 $Ab Funding sources Net Trade Creditors (0.7) 0.3
0.5 0.7 0.7 Secured funding 0.1 0.1 0.3 Bonds 7.3 8.0 6.4 Other loans 0.7 0.4 0.3 Senior credit facility 1.4 1.3 2.6 Loan capital1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Equity 2.8 2.4 3.3 Total funding sources 13.2 14.2 14.6 Funded assets Cash and liquid assets 1.7 1.8 2.1 Non-Bank Group deposit with MBL 3.7 5.0 3.6 Net trading assets 1.4 1.3 1.2 Loan assets < 1 year 0.2 0.2 0.4 Loan assets > 1 year 1.0 1.0 1.0 Debt investment securities 0.9 0.5 0.1 Co-investment in Macquarie-managed funds and other equity investments 3.6 3.7 5.0 Property, plant & equipment and intangibles 0.7 0.7 0.6 Net trade debtors
Total funded assets 13.2 14.2 14.6
weighted average term to maturity of 5.8 years Non-Bank Group term funding (drawn and committed but undrawn2) maturing beyond one year (including equity)
$Ab
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represent actual funding requirements
assets that require funding
Sep 14 $Ab Mar 14 $Ab Sep 13 $Ab Total assets per Statement of Financial Position 162.3 153.9 154.6 Deductions: Self funded trading assets (16.2) (17.9) (16.7) Derivative revaluation accounting gross ups (14.3) (11.6) (13.9) Life investment contracts and other segregated assets (5.6) (5.7) (5.2) Outstanding trade settlement balances (7.1) (7.2) (7.0) Short-term working capital assets (5.7) (5.5) (5.3) Less non-recourse funded assets: Securitised assets and non-recourse warehouses (15.5) (13.4) (12.7) Total assets per Funded Balance Sheet 97.9 92.6 93.8
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repurchase agreements in the normal course of trading activity that it conducts with its clients and counterparties. Also as part of its trading activities, Macquarie pays and receives margin collateral on its outstanding derivative positions. These trading related asset and liability positions are presented gross on the statement of financial position but are viewed as being self funded to the extent that they
setting positions with a variety of counterparties. The derivatives are largely matched and this adjustment reflects that the matched positions do not require funding.
provides products such as investment-linked policy contracts or where Macquarie holds segregated client monies. The policy (contract) liability and client monies will be matched by assets held to the same amount and hence does not require funding.
brokering business and trading activities. These amounts (payables) can be offset in terms of funding by amounts that Macquarie is
accruals) that produce a ‘net balance’ that either requires or provides funding.
Macquarie including lending assets (mortgages and leasing) sold down into external securitisation entities.
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Category Sep 14 $Ab Mar 14 $Ab Sep 13 $Ab
Mortgages: Australia 12.6 10.5 8.4 Canada, United States and other regions 5.2 5.7 6.8 Total mortgages 17.8 16.2 15.2 Structured investments 2.3 3.8 4.3 Banking 4.9 4.2 4.1 Real Estate 2.9 2.5 2.6 Resources and commodities 2.6 2.4 2.1 Finance leases 4.7 5.0 4.9 Corporate lending 6.5 6.0 5.5 Other lending 2.2 1.4 1.5 43.9 41.5 40.2 Operating leases 6.0 5.7 5.7 Total loan assets per funded balance sheet2 49.9 47.2 45.9
1 . Loan assets are reported on a funded balance sheet basis and therefore exclude certain items such as assets that are funded by third parties with no recourse to Macquarie. In addition, loan assets at amortised cost per the statutory balance sheet of $A64.4b at 30 Sep 14 ($A58.7b at 31 Mar 14) are adjusted to include fundable assets not classified as loans on the statutory balance sheet (for example, assets subject to operating leases which are recorded in Property, Plant and Equipment in the statutory balance sheet). 2. Total loan assets per funded balance sheet includes self securitisation assets.
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0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14
Ratio of Provisions and Impaired Assets to Loans, Advances and Leases
Collective provision to loans, advances and leases (Balance sheet) Net impaired assets to loans, advances and leases (Balance sheet) Net Credit losses to loans, advances and leases (Income statement)
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Category Carrying value2 Sep 14 $Am Carrying value2 Mar 14 $Am Description
Macquarie Funds (MIRA) managed funds 1,522 1,528 Includes MIC, MPF Holdings Limited, Macquarie SBI Infrastructure Fund, MQA, MEIF1, MWREF, Macquarie Mexican REIT, Macquarie Korea Infrastructure Fund, MEIF3 Other Macquarie managed funds 481 414 Includes investments that hedge directors’ profit share plan liabilities Transport, industrial and infrastructure 335 364 Over 50 separate investments Telcos, IT, media and entertainment 603 549 Over 30 separate investments Energy, resources and commodities 416 445 Over 100 separate investments Real estate investment, property and funds management 315 369 Represents property and JV investments/loans. Includes investments in Core Plus Industrial Fund, Retirement Villages Group, Charter Hall Group and Medallist Finance, wealth management and exchanges 548 491 Includes investments in fund managers, investment companies, securities exchanges and other corporations in the financial services industry 4,220 4,160
$A493m) and associate reserves of $A15m (Mar 14: $A20m), plus other assets of $A7m (Mar 14: $A17m). Comparatives have been restated to conform to changes in the current period presentation.
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‒ The portfolio is diversified across industries and countries as shown in the charts below
Australia & New Zealand 23% Asia 18% North America 29% Africa & Middle East 5% Europe & UK 24% South America 1% Operations across several continents 3%
MGL Equity Risk Exposure by Region
Real Estate Investments, 12% Diversified Infrastructure and Utilities, 33% Diversified Financials, 6% Energy, 9% Materials, 3% Road and Rail Transport, 3% Media, 7% Road and Rail Transport, 5% Consumer, Commerical and Software Services & Supplies, 9% Other, 16%
MGL Equity Investments by Industry
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received repayment of their initial capital invested as well as their preferential return
investors’ agreed return
measured and the risk of not receiving the fee is highly improbable. Factors that are taken into consideration when determining the quantum and timing of the performance fee recognised include: – The proportion of assets already realised – Returns on assets realised to date – Downside valuation on remaining assets and reliability of these estimates – Nature of investments and volatility of investment returns
judgement and will vary depending on the specific factors relevant for each fund
guidance previously provided
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Australia US EMEA Asia Statutory tax rates1 30% 35% to 45% 21% to 30% 16% to 35% Impacts on effective tax rate
including: – Interest (thin capitalisation) – Hybrid capital instruments
is not creditable when Australia is in a current year loss position
vary
including double taxation in certain circumstances
interest to Australia
apply, primarily for leasing activities
activities and jurisdiction
applies, primarily for trading and principal activities
businesses in certain lower tax jurisdictions currently in losses. Losses are non-deductible in certain circumstances
interest and dividends to Australia
disallowed tax reclaims
provisions for tax uncertainties
1.Material statutory tax rates as applied for the half year ending 30 Sep 14, and including Australian top-up taxation under the controlled foreign company provisions.
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circumstances or disagreement with the relevant revenue authorities arising out of a risk review or audit:
and considers that it holds appropriate provisions
international income
Non Australian revenue authorities – Reviews and audits tend to be real time or periodic – No significant matters outstanding Australian revenue authorities – ATO has historically conducted reviews and audits some years after the relevant tax year – Currently a small number of matters are unresolved or under review from prior years – For more recent years, the ATO has undertaken a process of real time review with any areas of potential uncertainty addressed using tax rulings where possible
November 2014