“Lowering Natural Gas Production & Increasing Liquids Rich Drilling. Liquids Production Could Reach 13% or More of Total Production in 2020”
TSX / NYSE: AAV Investor Presentation May 2018
Investor Presentation TSX / NYSE: AAV May 2018 ADVANTAGE AT A - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Lowering Natural Gas Production & Increasing Liquids Rich Drilling. Liquids Production Could Reach 13% or More of Total Production in 2020 Investor Presentation TSX / NYSE: AAV May 2018 ADVANTAGE AT A GLANCE TSX 52-week trading range
“Lowering Natural Gas Production & Increasing Liquids Rich Drilling. Liquids Production Could Reach 13% or More of Total Production in 2020”
TSX / NYSE: AAV Investor Presentation May 2018
ADVANTAGE AT A GLANCE
2 TSX 52-week trading range $3.48 - $9.24 Shares Outstanding (basic) 186 million Market Capitalization $0.8 billion 2018 Guidance 240 to 255 mmcfe/d Liquids Production (50% Increase over 2017) 1,800 bbls/d Exit Liquids Production 2,400 bbls/d Corporate Cash Costs $1.10 to $1.30/mcfe Estimated Dec. 31, 2018: Bank Debt (58% drawn on $400 million Credit Facility) ≈$233 million Total Debt (including working capital deficit) ≈$240 million Total Debt/Trailing 12 Month Cash Flow ≈ 1.5x (@ AECO $1.50/mcf to $1.75/mcf + WTI $65U.S./bbl)
Hedging & Market Diversification World Class Montney Assets Own & Operate 100% Plant & Infrastructure Industry Leading Low Cost Gas & Liquids Supply Financial Flexibility with Strong Balance Sheet Operational Excellence, Innovation, Opportunity capture
OUR DISCIPLINED STRATEGY CREATED A SOLID FOUNDATION TO GENERATE LONG TERM VALUE
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VALUE CREATION
Significant Inventory of Dry & Liquids Rich Gas Locations
RECENT LIQUIDS DRILLING SUCCESSES ENHANCES UPSIDE POTENTIAL ON 200 NET MONTNEY SECTIONS (128,000 NET ACRES)
Glacier 90 net sections Wembley/ Pipestone Valhalla 100% owned Glacier Gas Plant Progress (39 sections) (40 sections) (31 sections)
Alberta B.C. 4
rich lands have been drilled
at Valhalla, Wembley & Progress acquired for a total of $19 million since 2013
liquids rich gas
>1,200 locations and growing
4 well pad success 6,410 boe/d (32 mmcf/d gas + 1,075 bbls/d liquids with certain yields up to 100 bbls/mmcf, 90% C5+/oil)
6 miles
First Montney well 624 boe/d with 172 bbls/d liquids including 75 bbls/d wellhead C5+/oil First Montney well 1,312 boe/d with 819 bbls/d liquids including 624 bbls/d wellhead C5+/Oil
East Glacier Middle Montney 50-80 bbls/mmcf C5+
255 – 265 240 - 255
2018 Original Guidance 2018 Updated Guidance (2)
Annual Average Production (mmcfe/d)
2018 PLAN UPDATED TO INCREASE FUTURE LIQUIDS PRODUCTION(1)
LOWERING NATURAL GAS, INCREASING LIQUIDS
million capital program)
5 4.4% 5% - 6% 6% - 8% 10% - 15%
2018 Guidance Update (2)(3) 2018 Exit 2019 2020
Liquids Production % of Total Production
Primarily Valhalla & Glacier liquids growth Wembley mid-2020
(1) Management estimates (2) News Release dated April 19, 2018 (3) Midpoint of 2018 Guidance RangeNotes:
~5%
INCREASING LIQUIDS STRENGTHENS REVENUE & NETBACKS(1)(2) (SENSITIVITIES + IMPACTS)
6 4.4% 5% - 6% 6% - 8% 10% - 15%
2018 Guidance 2018 Exit 2019 2020
Liquids Production % of Total Production
$1.30 $1.64 - $1.68 $1.80 - $2.00
2018 2019 2020
Cash Flow Netbacks (Excluding Hedging)
20% 21% - 24% 30% - 38%
2018 2019 2020
Annual Liquids Revenue % of Total Revenue (Excluding Hedging) 1% Liquids ≈ 3% - 5% of Total Revenue Impact
(1) 2018 prices at strip as of April 24, 2018 and then $2 AECO, $2.55 US/mcf Dawn and WTI $60US/bbl for 2019 and 2020 at Fx $0.79. (2) Management estimate$45 $58 - $65 $100 - $125
2018 2019 2020
Annual Liquids Revenue ($ Millions)
Other $10 Plant & Value Add Facilities $85 Well Operations $80
2018 Cash Flow 2018 Capital Estimate
(1) Midpoint of 2018 Guidance Range. (2) Based on an average AECO Cdn $1.50/mcf to $1.75/mcf ($1.42/GJ to $1.66/GJ) and average Dawn US $2.80/mmbtu natural gas price and Advantage’s current hedge positions$155-$165 ($ million)
2018 UPDATED PLAN SUMMARY
$175
2018 SUMMARY (1) (2)
bbls/d exiting the year at 2,400 bbls/d (>70% C5)
Valhalla, Wembley and Progress
wells, complete in early 2019
& 6,800 bbls/d of liquids extraction Q2 2018
7 $130 $45
Glacier Valhalla, Wembley, Progress
25% 25% 27%
40% 17% 11% 20% 21% 6% 8% 5% 1% 7% 10% 2% 17% 23% 35%
2018E 2019E 2020E
Liquids Ventura Chicago Henry Hub Dawn Fixed Price AECO
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Note: (1) Graph represents % of estimated revenue based on strip pricing at April 24, 2018.MARKET & REVENUE DIVERSIFICATION (<27% REVENUE EXPOSURE TO AECO PRICES THRU 2020)
Glacier Netbacks 2018 Estimates at AECO Cdn $1.75/mcf Revenue (1) $2.62 Hedging $0.34 Royalties ($0.10) Operating Costs ($0.31) Transportation Costs(2) ($0.58) Operating Netback $1.97 G&A ($0.09) Finance & other ($0.12) Cash Flow Netback $/mcfe $/Boe $1.77 $10.62 Recycle Ratio based on 3 Year Average 2P F&D @ $0.52/mcfe (3) 3.4x
(1) Includes Dawn and Chicago natural gas revenue, adjustments for heat value (realized price) and natural gas liquids revenue. (3) 2PF&D includes Future Development Capital and is based on Sproule’s 2015, 2016 and 2017 year-end 2P reserves reports. (2) Includes liquids transportation costs of $0.04/mcfe, AECO gas transportation costsNATURAL GAS TRANSPORTATION SERVICE IN PLACE ACCESSING SEVERAL HUBS
100 200 300 400 5002018 2019 2020 2021 Firm Contracted Service Evergreen Contract Renewals
AECO Transportation Service
393 mmcf/d as of April, 2021Alliance Pipeline Connection Proceeding
Glacier gas plant
Proceeding with Alliance meter station connection for 2018Alliance TCPL
TCPL Meter Station Alliance Meter Stationcommitments through evergreen contract renewals
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Physical Downstream Transport Capacity
25 50 75 100 1252018 2019 2020 2021 Dawn Chicago Ventura Ability to further diversify downstream markets and capture revenue optimization opportunities
(mmcf/d) (mmcf/d)
$115 Million
280 mmcfe/d Q4 2018 AECO $1.20/Mcf
$100 Million
Cash Flow at AECO $2.50/Mcf
$215 Million
MAINTENANCE CAPITAL AND SURPLUS CASH FLOW SENSITIVITY ILLUSTRATIVE AT 280 MMCFE/D (Q4 2018)
Notes (1) Assumes 7.5 mmcf/d /7.5 Bcf for Upper/Lower Montney wells and 5.0 mmcf/d /5.0 Bcf for Middle Montney wells (2) Assumes Dawn at $3.30/mcf and a WTI price of $55 US/bbl.Annual Surplus Cash
(NO HEDGING INCLUDED)
$115 Million
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(2)
CASH FLOW MAINTENANCE CAPITAL CASH FLOW
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ONGOING VALUE CREATION FROM OUR HIGH QUALITY ASSETS THROUGH OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE
ADVANTAGE’S LAND BLOCKS ARE IN A LIQUIDS RICH MONTNEY FAIRWAY – CONFIRMATION THROUGH RECENT DRILLING SUCCESSES
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Source: Canadian Discovery Digest/AdvantageProgress Wembley Valhalla Glacier Upper Montney (Dry at Glacier to C3+ 40 bbls/mmcf at Valhalla) Middle Montney (C3+ 20 to >250 bbls/mmcf. 50% to 90% C5+/Oil) Lower Montney (C3+ up to 60 bbls/mmcf)
Source: Canadian Discovery Digest/Advantage
Recent Advantage Evaluation/Delineation wells
Wells drilled within last 18 months
Multi-Layer Montney Development Potential across Advantage Land Blocks
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Glacier Pipestone
2017/18 – AAV Confirms MM High Liquids Yields & Wellhead (Free) C5+/Oil on New Land Blocks
Progress Glacier Valhalla Wembley Pipestone
Early 2013 - Advantage Discovers MM liquids in Area
Initial 76 bbls/mmcf liquid yield discovery in MM 2013
discovered early 2013
thickness of MM sediments
at Valhalla and Wembley in September 2013 Valhalla First AAV Progress well (LM) 63 bbls/mmcf AAV Valhalla 50-100 bbls/mmcf First AAV Wembley 12-25 277 bbls/mmcf Industry drilling encroaching on AAV Wembley
refined
confirm regional model
sections of land in 2017
AAV land, 110 through Progress, Valhalla, Wembley
LIQUIDS RICH MIDDLE MONTNEY RESOURCE PLAY EVOLUTION
6 miles
NOTE: Liquid yields indicated are propane plus (“C3+”) based on a Glacier shallow cut liquids extraction processWEMBLEY/PIPESTONE – ULTRA RICH LIQUIDS PRODUCTION
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T72 R8 T73 R9 T71 R7
Kelt ECA CNRL Blackbird Cenovus Pipestone
AAV First Wembley Well 12-25 Mid Montney 1,312 boe/d 624 bbls/d free C5+/Oil 819 bbls/d C3+ 2.9 mmcf/d ~625 bopd IP30 - Oil
Average Initial Production (boe/d) Average over 1-Year Production (boe/d) TOTAL EUR (boe)
Oil 581 303 361,000 Gas 409 260 384,000 NGL 160 101 150,000 Total 1,150 664 895,000 Liquid Yield Bbls/mmcf 300 260 225Oil Production Rate (bbl/d)
Volatile oil area production
Pipestone
Upper Montney Middle Montney Lower Montney Taqa
Gaswells
CNRL Gaswells
Kelt Oilwells
AAV 13-31 First Well Tourmaline
Oilwells T77 T76 T78 R8 R10 R9
CNRL
On 2015/01 Cum Oil: 125,700 bbls to 2017/12 (36 months)
On 2016/08 Cum Oil: 101,000 bbls to 2017/12 (17 months)On 2016/09 Cum Oil: 13,300 bbls to 2017/12 (16 months)
AAV 5-22 Uncompleted
Advantage’s First Delineation Well 13-31-77-9W6
mmcf/d gas)
deg API)
cut)
period 40% reservoir draw down during flow up production casing
area process capacity
PROGRESS FIRST DELINEATION WELL – C3+ LIQUIDS YIELD OF 63 BBLS/MMCF
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Middle Montney
AREA INFRASTRUCTURE
16 Glacier Wembley/ Pipestone Valhalla
100% owned Glacier Gas Plant, 400 mmcf/d & 6,800 bbls/d liquids
Progress Alberta B.C.
~16km (10 miles) New Compressor and Liquids Handling Facility (Q4 2018) AAV 100% owned existing gathering pipeline LaGlace Liquids Terminal Cenovas Wembley Deepcut Plant (no capacity) Pembina Pipeline
Evaluating options to transport and process production from our land blocks to Advantage’s 100% owned Glacier gas plant & assessing additional options with midstream and area producers
SIGNIFICANT AND GROWING LIQUIDS & DRY GAS DRILLING INVENTORY
(1) Management Estimates (2) Based on Sproule December 31, 2017 Reserves Report (3) As of December 31, 2017, gross Hz wells (includes producing and standing developed wells) *Interval 6 not assigned reserves or resourceLiquids Rich intervals Ranges from C3+ yields of 20 to >250 bbls/mmcf (45% to 90% C5+)
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Multi-Layer Montney Development Potential across Advantage Land Blocks
Upper 115 Lower 51 Middle 31
>900
Glacier & Valhalla Undrilled
337
2P Reserves Undeveloped Locations Booked(2)
>1,200 Future Drilling Locations(1)
Proved Developed Wells by Layer(3) TOTAL 197
# of locations are expected to grow as delineation drilling continues at Valhalla, Wembley & Progress
Evaluating Longer Laterals and More Frac Stages (up to 2880 meters and 28 frac stages)
5-16 8 Well Pad
Lower Montney Middle Montney Upper MontneyDRY GAS EXPERTISE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WELL ECONOMIC THRESHOLDS AT GLACIER – 8 WELL PILOT PAD ON-PROD 2016
Evaluating Shorter Laterals Spacing & Recovery (1,656 meters)
Budget Type Curve (IP30 7.5 mmcf/d & 7.5 Bcf)18
Wells producing at ~10 mmcf/d after 365 days – exceeding type curve
Production updated to December, 2017
1.3 year payout at Cdn $2.00/mcf gas price Top Tier LM wells
LIQUIDS RICH – EAST GLACIER MIDDLE MONTNEY WELL ECONOMIC SENSITIVITY
(1)
Middle Montney at 50 bbls/mmcf C3+ (2)
(1) Management estimates. NPV 10% pre-tax. (2) Capital of $4.8 million per well based on management’s estimate of DCE+T capital cost and includes a 4 month drill to on-production timeframe (3) Natural gas and NGL prices and costs escalated at 1.5%. Average C3+ Cdn NGL price of $37/bbl based on U.S.$55/bbl WTI. C3+ NGL yields of 50 bbls/mmcf raw gas (3)Break-even below $1.50 Cdn gas price at U.S. $55/bbl WTI
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DRY GAS – GLACIER UPPER & LOWER MONTNEY WELL ECONOMIC SENSITIVITY(1)
(1) Management estimates. NPV 10% pre-tax. (2) Capital of $4.8 million per well based on management’s estimate of DCE+T capital cost and includes a 4 month drill to on-production timeframe (3) Natural gas and NGL prices and costs escalated at 1.5%. Average C3+ Cdn NGL price of $37/bbl based on $55 U.S./bbl WTIUpper & Lower Montney Dry Gas (2)
Break-even approximately $1.50/mcf Cdn with top tier Glacier dry gas wells
(3)20
GLACIER DRY GAS VS LIQUIDS RICH WELL ECONOMIC COMPARISON(1)
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At <$2.25/mcf Cdn price and $55 U.S/bbl WTI, Glacier’s average liquids rich type curve (5/5) generates stronger well economics than dry gas wells <= 9 mmcfd IP30 & 9 Bcfe EUR
(1) Management estimates. NPV 10% pre-tax. (2) Capital of $4.8 million per well based on management’s estimate of DCE+T capital cost and includes a 4 month drill to on-production timeframe (3) Natural gas and NGL prices and costs escalated at 1.5%. Average C3+ Cdn NGL price of $37/bbl based on $55 U.S./bbl WTIDry Gas vs Liquids Rich (2)
(3)
100% Owned Glacier Gas Plant – Positioned for Production Ramp-up Glacier Gas Plant Site near Major Natural Gas & Liquids Pipelines & Rail Access Sales Pipeline Loop capacity of 400 mmcf/d (Glacier plant to NW TCPL Mainline) Total TCPL Natural Gas Firm Transportation Service of 393 mmcf/d by 2021 Secured
GROWTH BEYOND 400 MMCF/D CAN BE ACCOMMODATED ON EXISTING PLANT SITE
TCPL Sales Meter Stations
Advantage Gas Plant Company Land Company Gas Plant TransCanada Pipeline Pembina Pipeline Advantage Pipeline Alliance Pipeline400 mmcf/d take away capacity to TCPL NW main sales gas pipeline
Pembina NGL LineAlliance Sales Gas Line
Room for Additional Expansion Beyond 400 mmcf/d Expanding from 250 to 400 mmcf/d & 6,800 bbls/d processing capacity
TCPL NW ALBERTA Main Sales Gas Line New Alliance Meter Station to be Installed 2018
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2018 GUIDANCE UPDATED (APRIL 2018)
Average Annual Production 240 to 255 mmcfe/d (40,000 to 42,500 boe/d) Liquids Annual 1,800 bbls/d Liquids Exit 2,400 bbls/d Royalty Rate 3% to 5% Operating Costs($/mcfe) $0.28 to $0.33 Transportation Costs ($/mcfe) $0.55 to $0.62 Total Corporate Cash Costs ($/mcfe) $1.10 to $1.30 Capital Expenditures $175 million
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GLACIER – LOCATED IN THE HEART OF THE MONTNEY RESOURCE PLAY
Montney Siltstone Comparison:26
ADVANTAGE - LEADING LOW COST NATURAL GAS SUPPLY
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(1) Advantage 2018 estimates at April 26, 2018. (2) RBC Capital Markets 2018 average cost estimate including ARX, BIR, CR, KEL, NVA, PPY, POU, TOU and VII at April 12, 2018. (3) Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. 2018 average cost estimate including AR, CNX, COG, EQT, RICE and RRC at April 26, 2018 using a USD$/CAD$ foreign exchange rate of $0.78.AAV Montney Marcellus
Select Montney and Marcellus Natural Gas Producers Cash Costs 2018 Estimates (Cdn$/mcfe)
Operating costs & transportation ($/mcfe) Royalties incl. GCA adjustments ($/mcfe) G&A ($/mcfe) Interest & other ($/mcfe)
$1.18 $2.39 $2.82
(3) (1) (2)RETURN ON AVERAGE CAPITAL EMPLOYED COMPARISON 5-YEAR AVERAGE (2013 TO 2017 ESTIMATE)
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Notes: 1. Advantage return on average capital employed (ROACE) is calculated by Management for the development of Glacier, Valhalla, Progress and Wembley since inception (legacy property disposition impacts have been excluded). 2. Comparative data is based on Macquarie Research September 11, 2017 and Peers Average includes ARX, BIR, BNP, CR, KEL, NVA, PEY, POU and VII. 3. ROACE as defined by Macquarie Research includes revenue and realized hedging gains/losses less royalty expense, operating expense, transportation expense, G&A expense, depreciation expense and income taxes (excludes unrealized hedging gains/losses and financing expense after taxes) divided by average capital employed.
Before tax 7.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.5% 0.8% 5.2% 1.4% After tax 5.6%
US Small/Mid Caps Average US Large Caps Average Cdn Yields Average Cdn Small/Mid Caps Average Cdn Large Caps Average Peers Average Advantage Montney Development
Comparative data is shown
Advantage was not taxable in the last 5 years and is not expected to be taxable for the next 5 years or more due to its significant tax pools.
INDUSTRY LEADING LOW COSTS GENERATES STRONG NETBACK MARGINS AMONGST DRY OR LIQUIDS RICH GAS PRODUCERS
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ARX KEL NVA CR TOU BIR AAV PEY $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00
$/mcfe
2017 Total Cash Costs Including PDP FD&A
2017 PDP FD&A 2017E Cash Costs (Excludes Hedging Gains) 48% 44% 51% 45% 58% 52% 66% 73%
ARX KEL NVA CR TOU BIR AAV PEY
2017 Netbacks Percentage of Revenue
Source: TD Securities data based on company’s 2017 actuals reported as of March 1, 2018.
CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT HAS CREATED INDUSTRY LEADING EFFICIENCIES
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Production restrictionsLIQUIDS RICH GLACIER MIDDLE MONTNEY WELL PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENTS SINCE 2011
including >20 frac stages & numerous mechanical systems to be evaluated
Glacier land block.
2013 4 wells Gen 2: Poly CO2, & Slickwater Plug and Perf Avg 13 frac stages
Note: Production plot affected by low number of producing wells >350 days and wells being choked.2012 2 wells Gen 1: Poly CO2, Sand Plugs, Avg 15 frac stages 2014 3 wells Gen 3: Slickwater, OH Packers Avg 15 frac stages 2015 13 wells Gen 4: Slickwater, OH Packers Avg 19 frac stages
Middle Montney Budget Type Curve (IP30 5.0 mmcf/d & 5.0 Bcf) Middle Montney IP30 6.0 mmcf/d & 6.0 Bcf Type Curve2016-17 6 Wells Gen 5: Slickwater, OH Packers, Cased hole & Stage completions Avg 27 frac stages
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2017 Production restrictions
Recent wells Test RatesRecent well initial production test rate
DRY GAS GLACIER UPPER AND LOWER MONTNEY WELLS - IMPROVING PERFORMANCE SINCE 2008
Data: updated to December, 2017
Budget Type Curve (IP30 7.5 mmcf/d & 7.5 Bcf)Production restrictions
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GLACIER MONTNEY ASSIGNED 2P EUR PER WELL & INTERVAL
(1) Based on Sproule 2017 year-end reserve reports. Indicated raw gas volumes per well.33 Glacier - 2P Recoveries per Interval(1)
Interval# of Gross HZ Wells 2P Recovery [bcf/well]
Developed Undeveloped Total Developed Undeveloped Total YE 2015 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2015 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2015 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2015 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2015 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2015 YE 2016 YE 2017 1 UM 100 103 111 148 141 133 248 244 244 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.9 5.8 5.2 5.4 5.5 2 MM 10 12 15 43 52 65 53 64 80 4.7 5.8 5.6 4.8 5.2 5.6 4.8 5.3 5.6 3 MM 7 8 10 23 25 35 30 33 45 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.4 4 MM 2 2 3 5 11 2 7 14 3.7 6.1 7.4 0.0 5.9 6.6 3.7 6.0 6.7 5 LM 34 43 51 83 84 81 117 127 132 5.6 7.1 7.7 5.9 6.4 6.5 5.8 6.6 6.9 Total 153 168 190 297 307 325 450 475 515 Interval# of Gross HZ Wells 2P Recovery [bcf/well] Developed Undeveloped Total Developed Undeveloped Total
YE 2015 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2015 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2015 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2015 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2015 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2015 YE 2016 YE 2017 1 UM2 4 5 2 9 2.9 6.6 7.9 2.9 7.3
2 MM1 2 5 1 7 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.2
3 MM1 2 3 2.1 2.1 2.1
Total3 7 12 3 19
Valhalla - 2P Recoveries per Interval(1)
ADVISORY
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ADVISORY
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ADVISORY
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ADVANTAGE CONTACT INFORMATION
Investor Relations
1.866.393.0393 ir@advantageog.com www.advantageog.com Listed on NYSE and TSX: AAV
Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd.
Suite 300, 440 – 2nd Avenue SW Calgary, Alberta T2P 5E9 Main: 403.718.8000 Facsimile: 403.718.8332
Andy Mah, P.Eng.
Director, President & Chief Executive Officer
Craig Blackwood, C.A.
VP Finance & Chief Financial Officer
Neil Bokenfohr, P.Eng.
Senior Vice President
David Sterna
Vice President Marketing and Commercial
Advantage 100% W.I. Glacier Gas Plant