Investor Presentation
August 2014
All figures as at end of Q2-2014, unless otherwise stated
Investor Presentation August 2014 All figures as at end of Q2-2014, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation August 2014 All figures as at end of Q2-2014, unless otherwise stated Outline 1. Egypt Macroeconomic & Real Estate Sector Overview A. Egypt Macro Economic Update B. Egypt Real Estate Update 2. Introduction &
All figures as at end of Q2-2014, unless otherwise stated
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4 The government has embarked on a number of schemes that aim to address economic issues These initiatives are expected to have positive effects on macro economic indicators
Recent Government Initiatives Subsidy Reforms
much-awaited fiscal consolidation, aiming to bring the fiscal deficit towards a sustainable path and revive economic growth. The approved measures constitute:
plan for phasing out fuel subsidies
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Item Annual Saving (EGP Bn) Diesel 16.8 Gasoline 8.9 Fuel Oil 4.0 Natural Gas 3.7 Electricity 8.5 Cigarettes & Alcohol 4.5 Total 46.4 % of GDP 2.0%
Mortgage Finance
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launch of an EGP 10bn programme by CBE to promote mortgage finance
maturities of more than 10 years that would be utilized in the financing mortgage for low and middle income families
Suez Canal & New Road Network
the existing 145-year-old historic waterway with an estimated cost of USD 8.2 bn (including building underground tunnels) to be completed in five
2023 from USD5.2 bn in FY12/13
On-going Talks With Bretton Woods Institutions
renew talks with the IMF & World Bank and hired western advisors to advise on policy decisions
Macroeconomic Indicators Real GDP Growth
5.2% 1.8% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 3.3% 4.5% 09/10A10/11A11/12A12/13A 13/14E 14/15F 15/16F
Budget Deficit (%GDP)2
8.1% 9.8% 10.8% 13.7% 12.0% 12.0% 10.4% 09/10A10/11A11/12A12/13A 13/14E 14/15F 15/16F
Inflation
12% 11% 9% 7% 10% 10% 8% 09/10A 10/11A 11/12A 12/13A 13/14E 14/15F 15/16F
1 Source: IMF, Bloomberg, Reuters, EFG Hermes Research 2 Expected budget deficit is based on press release by the Ministry of Finance
“The World Bank Group (WBG) is preparing to form a new partnership strategy with Egypt to guide the group’s engagement in the country for the next five years. The group stated that the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) was launched on Wednesday in collaboration with the Egyptian government.” DNE, March 8, 2014
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5 A large and growing population is Egypt’s key asset compared to its MENA counterparts Unlike aging economies, Egypt is likely to exhibit a strong working age population growth over the coming period
Market Drivers Remain Intact
Population & Growth Vs Arab States
1 Source: CAPMAS, IMF, US Census, Central Banks of respective countries and Industry reports; Data as at 31/12/2013.
Demographics Annual Marriages (‘000) Mortgage Penetration
Egypt benefits from an attractive demographic profile due to its large and growing young population The increasing marriage rate and urbanization levels have resulted in an increased demand for housing units, With significantly below average leverage levels, the sector is expected to witness enhanced demand especially when considering recent government initiatives relating to mortgage financing
87 33 32 28 25 5 4 3 2 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 3% 2% 6%
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Population (mn) Growth (%)
World Average: 1.2%
21% 22% 20% 13% 11% 7% 4% 2% 21% 23% 19% 13% 11% 7% 4% 2%
25% 15% 5% 5% 15% 25% <10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 >70
Female Male
Young population (around 60% below the age of 30)
778 848 898 933 2009 2010 2011 2012 2% 2% 5% 6% 6% 8% 15% 17%
6 The real estate market is underpinned by real demand and limited speculation with a large supply-demand gap
Market Characteristics/Trends
1 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, EFG Hermes research, CAPMAS, American Chamber.
Most of demand seen in new urban communities / satellite cities (e.g. East- Cairo, West-Cairo, Shorouk, etc) These cities offer high quality newly constructed homes within a fully functional community, offering necessary amenities and facilities (e.g. schools, shopping centers and medical centers) and supported by emergence of new business districts (e.g. Smart Village near 6th of October)
dense metropolitan areas in the world
Gross Pre Sales for Key Developers (EGP million) Vs. FX Rate
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Brief Overview
MCap of some EGP 3.5 billion, with a diversified shareholder base 9 launched projects with
units valued at EGP 11 billion SODIC’s Egypt raw land bank expected to generate some EGP 17 billion of residential sales YTD stock performance of +89% 8
Company Highlights
Contracted Sales
Delivery
Backlog
Egypt Land Bank
Funding
1 Since inception; Excluding Beverly Hills Project.
Fully Integrated Developer
Strength Description
achieving optimal business cases
development and sales team
evolve & optimize products
Process Driven Development
conditions including:
Full Cycle Experience
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Post-revolution strategy shift of launching market-tailored projects
New market needs
potential customers
2009 recession
Assessments
4 key elements to target “Upper Middle Income Class”
Outcomes
New products with ticket price of EGP 0.8 – 2.8 million
Actions
Unparalleled success of WTR I - X
Results
1 Includes all phases in WTR & ETR projects since launch to 30/6/2014, some 2,430 units.
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1 Excluding 1.56 million sqm in Syria. 2 Includes EGP 1.1 billion of land payments
Development
SODIC Corporate Business Units Strategic Initiatives
Sales & Marketing Execution Finance
affordable, community centric products
improve land utilization
residential to mixed use developer
master plan for the 301 Acre plot
Leader” Positioning
Family of Brands
development ensuring best product offering
1.2 billion of new launches ( H2 2014)
in 20142
West, 131 East)
for delivery ahead of schedule
capabilities to reduce construction costs
execution post 301 plot launch
support timely execution
transaction (EGP 150 million)
keeping to eliminate future surprises
capital increase (October 2014)
Leveraging platform; Bringing to market some EGP 17 billion of new residential inventory Expected Outcome (3-6 Years) 1 Collect some EGP 4 billion of receivables from existing sales; Maintain collection rate of over 90% 2 Timely execution spending, delivering more than 8,000 residential units 3 Positive free cash flows to equity post 2016 4 Increase recurring income portfolio (retail + commercial) 5
Facility Management
customer service experience
services
Penetrate secondary homes & secondary city markets 5
January March April May June February July
Month Description
expected to generate some EGP 1.3 billion of sales
unlocking some EGP 5 billion of residential inventory
first real estate securitization issuance
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Targets for H2 2014
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1 As at 12/8/2014.
Q1 2014
SODIC Quarterly Performance: +14% EGX 30 Quarterly Performance: +15%
Q2 2014
Quarterly Performance: +28% EGX 30 Quarterly Performance: +5%
increase
July/Aug 2014 +24% +14%
capital increase
down payment
80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2-Jan-14 9-Jan-14 16-Jan-14 23-Jan-14 30-Jan-14 6-Feb-14 13-Feb-14 20-Feb-14 27-Feb-14 6-Mar-14 13-Mar-14 20-Mar-14 27-Mar-14 3-Apr-14 10-Apr-14 17-Apr-14 24-Apr-14 1-May-14 8-May-14 15-May-14 22-May-14 29-May-14 5-Jun-14 12-Jun-14 19-Jun-14 26-Jun-14 3-Jul-14 10-Jul-14 17-Jul-14 24-Jul-14 31-Jul-14 7-Aug-14 EGX SODIC
Offer Type Offer Size Pre/Post No. of Shares Pre/Post Paid In Capital Offer Price Trading of Rights Use of Proceeds
Item Description
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Subscription Ratio
Benefits of
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Location
Sheikh Zayed/Sixth of October
Utilized Raw Description
5.75 mln sqm 1.78 mln sqm1 Corner of Dahshour Road & Cairo-Alex Road New Cairo 0.42 mln sqm2 1.82 mln sqm Eastown & 301 Acre Plot Syria
Proportionate to ownership – Fully impaired
Total 6.17 mln sqm 5.16 mln sqm
Egypt Land Bank Advantages Low Cost Base3 Prime Locations
Located in premium city spots at East/West Cairo Average cost of USD 75 per sqm of gross land
54% utilized of total land bank
1 Consists of 525,000 sqm in Sheikh Zayed & 1,260,000 sqm in KM 42 Cairo-Alex Road (El Yousr land/Esplanade West). As at 30/6/2014. 2 Kattameya Plaza Project (126,000 sqm) and ET Residences Phases I-IV (291,754 sqm). As at 30/6/2014. 3 For Egypt land bank only.
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Dispute Free
Egypt land bank is free of any legal encumbrances
Project Description
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Allegria Forty West Eastown Residences Kattameya Plaza The Polygon The Strip WT Hub Westown Residences
SODIC envisages a “hip/trendy,” upscale suburban village, targeting young affluent families
Project Brief Renders
active social center. The development will offer a variety of sports activities with a special focus on kids entertainment facilities.
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1 Includes the total land cost of EGP 2.9 billion.
Surrounding Projects Location
Project Status
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Master Plan Westown
Westown Residences (Phases I to X), Westown Retail Hub
Eastown
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2013
Some EGP 10.2 billion of net sales since 2008 of which 50% yet to be recognized
Annual Net Sales (EGP Million)
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1 Monthly Sales from January 2008 to June 2014. Unrecognized revenues accounting for EGP 5.1 billion as at 30th of June 2014. 2 Actual Contracted Net Sales as at 30th of June 2014. 3 Expected contracted net sales in H2 2014.
& 9
Residences “ETR” phases 1 to 4 account to 50%
2,478
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
launch
units contracted
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EGP 2.7 Billion
Regular Operating Environment
Global Financial Recession
EGP 250 million of sales
EGP 4.6 Billion
Regular Operating Environment
Polygon
“WTR” Phase 1
735 million in cancellations
4.6 Billion
Jan 25th Revolution
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sales of some EGP 1 billion
EGP 6.2 Billion
Regular Operating Environment
1,884 849 1,839 1,619 6
June 30th Revolution
2014
launch EGP 1.2 billion in H2 2014
15842
Regular Operating Environment
9623
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
GPM of 36% on some EGP 9.6 billion of unit sales
Expected Lease Revenues (From Existing Launched Projects)
Sellable Inventory Profitability 1 Percentage Sold (Value)
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1 All figures in EGP unless otherwise stated. 2 Expected gross profit margin, excluding NPV adjustments. 3 Unsold Allegria inventory amounts to EGP 204 mln (13 units), displaying an average price per unit of EGP 16 million. 4 Includes the investment cost of leasable assets.
Total Inventory Development Cost4 Sold Inventory Projects’ GPM 2 Project (EGP millions) Allegria3 Polygon Forty West KP WTR (I-X) Total 4,387 2,731 4,183 38% 711 639 532 31% 588 495 374 33% 648 438 616 33% 2,233 1,304 2,169 42%
10,391 36%
Sold Unsold 95% 5% 75% 63% 37% 100% 97%
3%
92% 8% Sales / Lease Ratio 100% 77% 80% 100% 100%
ETR (I-VI) 1,824 1,337 1,716 27% 94% 100%
9,590
3%
6,944
750
400 600 800
40 60 80 100 120 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Cumulative Lease Revenues EGP Million Annual Lease Revenues EGP Million Polygon Forty West The Strip Westown Hub Cumulative Lease Revenues 34 57 79 84 93 96 99 102 105
SODIC delivered some 222 units during H1 2014 across 8 different projects, namely: Allegria, Kattameya Plaza, Forty West, The Polygon, The Strip, Casa ,WT Hub & WT Residences
Project
Number of Units Delivered Units % Delivered Investment Cost2 % Completion3 Delivery Start Date Delivery End Date
1 All figures as at 30th of June 2014. 2 Investment cost represents the expected construction and land costs. Figures are in EGP millions. 3 Percentage completion represents the actual earned value, calculated on a weighted average basis per project phase. 4 Westown Residences Phase I shows an 86% development completion on a standalone basis. 5 CASA is a jointly owned project (80% Palm Hills subsidiary & 20% SODIC). SODIC owns 63 apartments in addition to its ownership stake.
Over 4,800 units under development (35% delivered) with an investment cost of some EGP 7.3 billion
Delivery Execution
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Allegria Kattameya Plaza Forty West
WT Residences (I-X)
The Polygon The Strip WT Hub
Total
1,254 1,080 86% 2010 2,731 91% 466 346 74% 2013 438 97% 133 39 29% 2012 495 93% 1,391 71 5% 2013 1,304 32%4 250 102 41% 2013 639 79% 84 24 29% 2012 241 76% 47 2 4% 2014 66 90%
4,811 1,705 35% From 2010 to 2017 7,251 NA
2015 2015 2015 2017 2016 2015 2015 ET Residences (I-VI) 1,123
1,337 9% 2017 CASA5 63 41 65% 2013 NA 100% 2015
Building on strengths
Item
(in EGP mln unless otherwise stated)
H1 2014
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H1 2013
Variance %
Gross Contracted Sales Net Contracted Sales
Net Contracted Sales From New Launches
Cash Collected CAPEX1 Number of Units Delivered (units) Value of Units Delivered Gross Profit Net Profit
1,674 1,584 1,831 1,641
Number of Units Sold (units)
716 928
979 997
38% 540 423 28% 223 212 5% 644 426 51% 232 146 59% 91 49 86%
Debt Raised/Secured
2,150 120 1692%
Cash at banks & on hand
762 370 106% 894 649
1 Includes EGP 167 million of land payments.
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25 Following the 30th of June protests and the ouster of ex president Morsi, several Macro indicators showed signs of improvement with CDS spread dropping from an alarming 900 bps and a drop in 1 year T-bill yield Macro risk receded with the support package promised by Saudi Arabia, UAE and
pulled the breaks on further devaluation of the EGP and revered the constant decrease in Egypt’s foreign reserves
Recent Government Initiatives
Egypt Spot & 12 Months Non Deliverable Forward
1 Source: Bloomberg, IMF, CBE 2 Due to the Monetary Police Committee’s decision to raise overnight lending and deposits rate by 100 bps
CDS Spread (basis points)
9.1 8.3 7.1
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Forward Spot 900 330 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14
Post 30th June Protests Post 25th Jan Revolution Post Presidential Elections
1 Year T-Bill Yield (%) Dollarization (% of Total Deposits)
15.4% 12.4%
Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14
Due to MPC’s decision to raise lending and deposits rate by 100 bps
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22% 23% 20%
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14
Stable FX Reserves (USD Billion)
35 33 30 28 27 27 26 25 24 22 20 18 16 16 15 15 16 16 14 15 15 16 15 15 14 14 13 14 16 15 19 19 19 19 18 17 17 17 17 18 17 17 17 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Country Received Total Pledged
USD 4.0 bn USD 6.9 bn USD 8.6 bn USD 12.2 bn USD 3.0 bn USD 4.0 bn USD 15.6 bn USD 23.1 bn Incoming International Support Packages
Board of Directors & Ownership Structure
Management with full economic cycle experience, successfully navigated global recession & revolutions A development
capable of monetizing land positions at
Diverse team assembled since 2006 with untapped capacity Transitioned from entrepreneurial to corporate
Executive Management
Chief Technical Officer
Orabi
Chief Financial Officer
Hamawy
Chief Projects Officer
Halwagy
Chief Commercial Officer
Labib
Chief Projects Development Officer
Ramzy Managing Director (Executive)
Managing Director (Executive)
Chairman (Non-Executive)
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Thabet
Baghdady
Abanumay
Barakat
Hamawy
El Orabi
Ramzy
Member
(Non-Executive)
Member
(Non-Executive)
Member
(Non-Executive)
Member
(Non-Executive)
Member
(Executive)
Member
(Executive)
Member
(Executive)
Shareholders Structure A fragmented shareholding structure with the largest shareholder owning 13%
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1 As at 12th of August 2014. Closing price EGP 42.75 2 From 2 Jan 2012 to 2 Jul 2014, rebased.
Share Information1
90.68 million Market Capitalization EGP 3,877 million Market Capitalization USD 542 million Index Inclusions EGX 30 EGX 100 MSCI IMI Symbol EGX: OCDI.CA Reuters: OCDI CA Bloomberg: OCDI EY 52 weeks High/Low (EGP): 42.75/13.9 YTD Share Performance 88.9%
30 Months Share Performance : SODIC Vs. EGX (Rebased) 2
1% 17% 45% 24% 13%
ESOP High Net Worth International Institutions Local Institutions Retail
12% 9% 5% 5% 3% 13% 3% 2% 1% 47%
Olayan Group Ripplewood Al Rashed Group EFG Hermes El Maged Company Abanumay Family Abd El Monem Abd Alrahman EL Rashed NORGES BANK ESOP Free Float
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 EGX30 OCDI
Cityscape Euromoney Business Today Ministry of Trade & Authority CNBC Property Euromoney American Society
Architects
Award Description
Trade Development Authority, an affiliate of Ministry of Trade and Industry
for its master plan, developed by world-renowned master planners EDAW
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This Presentation is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute or form part of an offer for sale or subscription or an invitation
basis of any contract or commitment from any party whatsoever. Information, including but not limited to financial information, in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation in relation to holding, purchasing or selling shares, securities or any other instruments in or, in entities related to, SODIC or any other company. This Presentation contains important and privileged information on SODIC which is solely owned by SODIC and may not be relied on or used by any person whosoever for any purpose, and therefore shall be kept secret and confidential by any receiving party. This document includes forward-looking statements. The words "believe", "anticipate", "expect", "intend", "aim", "plan", "predict", "continue", "assume", "positioned", "may", "will", "should", "shall", "risk" and other similar expressions that are predictions of or indicate future events and future trends identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts. In particular, the statements regarding strategy and other future events or prospects are forward-looking statements. Recipients of this document should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements because they involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that are in many cases beyond the control of the Company. By their nature, forward-looking statements & projections involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and the Company's actual results of operations, financial condition and liquidity, and the development of the industry in which the Company operates may differ materially from those made in or suggested by the forward-looking statements contained in this document. The cautionary statements set forth above should be considered in connection with any subsequent written or oral forward-looking statements that the Company, or persons acting on its behalf, may issue. Various factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements in this document including worldwide economic trends, the economic and political climate of Egypt, the Middle East and changes in business strategy and various other factors. All information contained in this presentation, including but not limited to information relating to the Egyptian real estate and financial markets, are compiled from sources known to be reliable and/or publicly available data reasonably assumed to be accurate (the “Source Data”). The Source Data may contain errors and/or inaccuracies; SODIC provides no warranties or guarantees of any kind, expressed or implied, and accepts no responsibility whatsoever, with regard to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the Source Data used in the Presentation. This disclaimer is to be considered an integral part of the Presentation and SODIC’s liability in respect of this Presentation and is to be governed by Egyptian law under the jurisdiction of Egyptian courts.
For SODIC investor relations enquiries contact: Mahmoud Badran mbadran@sodic.com Tel: +202 3854 0121 SODIC IR website: ir.sodic.com SODIC corporate website: www.sodic.com