Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Investor Presentation April 2020 Hizmete zel / Confidential - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation April 2020 Hizmete zel / Confidential - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Investor Presentation April 2020 Hizmete zel / Confidential Disclaimer This presentation contains forward- looking statements that reflect the Company managements current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 2
Disclaimer
Disclaimer
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Refining Market
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
30.7 81.2 67.0 55.4 31.8
20 26 32 38 44 50 56 62 68 74 80 86
Brent Crude Prices
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 4
Refining Market
$/bbl
+ Impact of Iran & Venezuela sanctions + Escalating regional tension
- Disagreement between OPEC and Russia
- Concerns on global economic development
- Coronavirus related demand drop
2016 ave. 43.7 $/bbl 2017 ave. 54.3 $/bbl 2018 ave. 71.0 $/bbl 2019 ave. 64.3 $/bbl
All waivers expired on Iran OPEC Production Cut Decision Iran Sanctions Drone Attack to Saudi Fields
data as of 31 Mar 2020
OPEC+ disagreement
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Global Refinery Capacity Changes
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 5
Refining Market
Expectations until 2024:
- ~80% of net capacity additions will come from Asia & Middle East
- Net capacity and demand in Europe will remain roughly unchanged
2.10 0.98 1.68 0.49 1.30
- 0.95
0.22
- 1.41
- 2
- 1
1 2 3
China India Middle East Other Asia Other Japan
- N. America
Europe
2012-2018 Net Capacity Additions by Region
2.0 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.2 1.97 0.89 1.93 1.96 1.50 0.51
- 0.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
2019-2024 Net Capacity Additions
Asia & Middle East Other Total
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Middle Distillate Cracks
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 6
Refining Market
14.9 16.2 15.0 12.2 12.9 11.4 14.1 16.2 16.6 17.9 13.9 11.3 11.2 10.1 12.5
5 10 15 20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Diesel
5yr range 2019 2020 5 yr ave 14.4 13.8 13.2 10.3 10.9 11.2 14.8 16.4 17.0 17.4 12.5 9.3 10.4 7.9 5.8 5 10 15 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Jet Fuel
5yr range 5 yr ave 2019 2020
5 yr between 2015-2019, data as of 31 Mar 2020
$/bbl
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Gasoline and High Sulphur Fuel Oil Cracks
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 7
Refining Market
$/bbl
7.7 9.8 3.3 1.7 2.9 9.0 12.1 10.0 9.4 14.7 12.0 10.6 11.0 9.9 4.3
5 10 15 20 25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Gasoline
5yr range 2020 2019 5 yr ave
- 22.4
- 15.8
- 8.4
- 7.0
- 5.0
- 5.5
- 8.6
- 11.3
- 9.8
- 6.9
- 13.4
- 16.9
- 22.5
- 31.6
- 32.9
- 40
- 30
- 20
- 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
High Sulphur Fuel Oil
5yr range 2020 2019 5 yr ave
5 yr between 2015-2019, data as of 31 Mar 2020
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
- 12
- 10
- 8
- 6
- 4
- 2
2 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019
Arab Heavy Basrah Heavy Kirkuk Kuwait Ural ¹Average
Crude Price Differentials to Brent
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 8
Refining Market
¹Simple average of listed differentials
- Iran Sanctions
- Venezuela Sanctions
- OPEC+ cut decision and over-
compliance
- Druzhba contamination
- Drone attack to Saudi fields
Supply Shocks on Heavy Crude A total of ~4 mbd is missing from heavy crude pool since December 2018, leading to price increases and narrowing differentials
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Turkish Market
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Turkish Consumption 2015-2018
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 10
Turkish Market
Source: Tüpraş and EMRA ¹Bunker excluded
20.60 22.30 24.20 23.60 2015 2016 2017 2018
Diesel
Million Tons
+8.5% +8.5%
- 2.4%
4.58 4.40 4.52 4.99 2015 2016 2017 2018
Jet Fuel
+10.4% +2.7%
- 3.9%
2.10 2.23 2.30 2.34 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gasoline
+1.8% +3.1% +6.5%
0.6 0.58 0.49 0.39 2015 2016 2017 2018
Fuel Oil¹
- 20.1%
- 15.7%
- 3.5%
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Turkish Market, 12M 2019
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 11
Turkish Market
Diesel demand contraction in H1 has been mostly off set in H2. Aviation driven jet demand has been healthy.
0.39 0.40 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2018 2019
²Fuel Oil
2.34 2.42 1 2 3 2018 2019
Gasoline
4.99 5.31 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2018 2019
¹Jet Fuel
25.01 24.90 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 2018 2019
Diesel
Million Tons
¹Transit flight consumption included ²Bunker excluded
- 0.4%
+6.5% +0.5% +3.2%
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
1.62 1.78 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2018 2019
Diesel
+9.8%
Turkish Market, 1M 2020
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 12
Turkish Market
Diesel demand recovery since H2 2019 continued while Jet beginning the year with a decline in 1M 2020.
0.06 0.04 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2018 2019
²Fuel Oil
0.17 0.18 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2018 2019
Gasoline
0.35 0.33 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2018 2019
¹Jet Fuel
Million Tons
¹Transit flight consumption included ²Bunker excluded
- 33.3%
+6.6%
- 5.2%
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Turkey’s Net Import / Export Balance
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 13
Turkish Market
- 3.4
2.8
- 12.3
0.1
- 3.0
3.0
- 8.7
0.3
- 16
- 12
- 8
- 4
4
LPG Gasoline Diesel Jet
2016 2017 2018 2019
Export Import
Million Tons
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Company Overview
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Domestic Ownership 22% Foreign Ownership 78%
Tüpraş Shareholder Structure
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 15
Company Overview
¹As of December 31th,2019
Koç Holding 77% Aygaz 20% Opet 3% Ditaş 79.98% Opet 40% Körfez Ulaştırma 100% Free Float 49% Tüpraş is Turkey’s biggest industrial company and leading refiner. Energy Investments Inc. (SPV) 51%
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Tüpraş’s Refining Assets & Distribution Network
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 16
Company Overview
İzmit
- 11.3 MT Capacity
- NC: 14.5
- Storage Capacity: 3.0 mn m3
İzmir
- 11.9 MT Capacity
- NC: 7.66
- Storage Capacity:2.5 mn m3
Kırıkkale
- 5.4 MT Capacity
- NC: 6.32
- Storage Capacity: 1.3 mn m3
Batman
- 1.4 MT Capacity
- NC: 1.83
- Storage Capacity:0.3 mn m3
Turkey‘s Storage Capacity
Tüpraş & Opet 57% Others 43%
Railway
Iraq-Turkey Oil Pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline
+ Tüpraş supplies ~55%
- f Turkey’s petroleum
product needs
+ Tüpraş benefits from
an integrated system
- ptimization with its
high complexity, procurement and logistics flexibility Total Capacity 30 mn tons Nelson Complexity 9.5 Tüpraş Storage Cap. 7 mn m3
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Nelson Complexity of Refining Companies
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Company Overview
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Tüpraş Subsidiaries
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Company Overview
OPET, Distribution, Tüpraş Share: 40%
- 1,670 stations as of 31 December 2019
- As of November 2019 Market share: 19.0% in white products; 35.6% in
black products
DİTAŞ, Marine Transport, Tüpraş Share: 79.98%
- 3 Crude Oil Tanker: 479,765 DWT
- 1 Crude Oil - Product Tanker: 51,532 DWT
- 10 Product Tanker: 171,453 DWT“
Körfez Ulaştırma, Railway Transport, Tüpraş Share: 100%
- ~7% share in Turkish rail freight market
- ~1.8 mn ton of product and semi-product carried in 2019.
- Operates with 10 diesel locomotives and over 600 cistern wagons
Tüpraş Trading UK, Trading, Tüpraş Share: 100%
- Trading Office in London will be an important step into wider integration
with the global energy landscape by allowing to:
- Closely monitor international market opportunities
- Support import and export operations
- Create additional value from supply chain and sales activities
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Operations
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
6 6 10 2 2 3 12 3 3 1 12 13 13 10 10 10 2 17 15 11 14 14 7 14 34 65 67 63 71 76 79 81 55 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Africa America Europe CIS Middle East
Main Crude Suppliers in 2019
Crude Suppliers of Tüpraş
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 20
In 2019, Tüpraş purchased 15 different types of crude from 8 countries with gravities ranging between 20-47 API.
Operations
Crude Oil Imports by Region (%)
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Annual Product Yields
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 21
Operations
LPG 3% Gasoline 20% Naphtha 1% Jet 19% Gasoil 33% Fuel Oil 7% Kok 3% Asphalt 12% Other 2% LPG Gasoline Naphtha Jet Gasoil Fuel Oil Kok Asphalt Other Light Distil. 25%
- Mid. Distil.
52% Black Prod. 21% Other white 2%
2018
White Product Yield (%) 77.4% Production 25.7 mn tons API 31.0
LPG 4% Gasoline 20% Naphtha 1% Jet 17% Gasoil 36% Fuel Oil 9% Kok 3% Asphalt 8% Other 2% LPG Gasoline Naphtha Jet Gasoil Fuel Oil Kok Asphalt Other Light Distil. 25%
- Mid. Distil.
53% Black Prod. 20% Other White 2%
2019
White Product Yield (%) 79.0% Production 28.1 mn tons API 32.0
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
5.2 6.2 7.7 6.6
6.7 6.9 7.5 6.9
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarterly Production (Million Tons)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 98 101 101 87 91 89 91 96 87 4 4 7 9 7 4 5 9 9 103 105 108 96 98 94 96 105 96
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19
Capacity Utilization (%)
Crude Oil Semi Product Feedstock Total
Capacity Utilization1 (%) Quarterly Production
Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 22 ¹Capacity utilization calculation is based on 30 mn tons for Q1 2019 and onwards.
Total production volume in Q4 2019 realized as 6.9 mn tons. Full year capacity utilization for 2019 was 97.8%, in line with our guidance.
Operations
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Sales
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 23
- Tüpraş generated 29.2 million tons of total sales 2019.
Operations
Distributors 46% THY Opet 5% Jet 9% LPG 3% Other 6% Export 23% Bitumen 6% Military 2%
22.2 24.8 25.7 25.6 22.4 6.5 5.5 5.8 4.2 6.8 28.7 30.3 31.5 29.8 29.2
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Exports Domestic Sales 9.2 10.8 11.3 11.9 10.4 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.9 4.3 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.9 3.4 3.5 2.9 1.8
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Bitumen Gasoline Jet Fuel Diesel
Total Sales Domestic Sales of Key Products Customer Groups 2019
mn tons mn tons
Sales to Distributors 2019 13.3 mn tons Total Sales, 2019 29.2 mn tons
POAŞ 27% OPET 31% SHELL 19% BP 13% OTHER 10%
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Key Financials Financials
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Refining Margin
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 25
Tüpraş’ Net Refining Margin in 2019 was 2.0 $/bbl higher than Med Complex margin (1.7 $/bbl).
2.5 3.2 6.5 6.0 8.1 9.3 3.7 1.7 1.9 4.8 4.0 5.3 4.6 1.7
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Tüpraş Net Margin Mediterranean
Premium to the benchmark Mediterranean peers’ refining margin due to:
- Ability to use heavier and sour crudes with higher
complexity
- Access to a wide range of cheaper sources of crude
- il
- Close proximity to major suppliers reduces
transport costs
- Lower cost basis and more efficient energy usage
- Ability to produce a broad range of refined products
with higher value added
- Direct pipeline connections with domestic clients
5.5 2.0 2.9 1.2 4.2 1.7 2.0 4.8 4.0 5.4 4.6 1.7 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
Med Complex
Month Annual
Financials
$/bbl $/bbl
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Tüpraş and Med Refining Margins
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 26
Financials
($/bbl) Gross Margin Inventory Effect Clean Gross Margin Clean NET Margin Net Margin Med Margin 2019 Q4 9.7 0.7 9.0 2.9 3.6
- 1.9
2019 12M 9.2 0.1 9.1 3.6 3.7 1.7 2018 Q4 10.8
- 4.0
14.9 9.0 5.0 4.7 2018 12M 14.7 0.8 13.9 8.5 9.3 4.6
6.5 6.0 8.1 9.3 3.7 5.3 3.6 5.8 4.5 1.7
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$/bbl
12M Margins
Tüpraş Net Margin Med Margin
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Income Statement
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 27
*On CMB reports. EBIT includes extra items such as FX impacts of trade receivables and payables. In our EBITDA calculation. FX related items are excluded from EBIT as customary in international practices.
Financials
Tüpraş generated 738 MTL EBITDA in Q4 2019.
Million TL Q4 Q4 % FY FY % 2019 2018 2019 2018 Net Sales 21,631 24,803
- 13
89,601 88,552 1 COGS
- 20,566
- 22,778
- 10
- 84,716
- 79,328
7 Gross Profit 1,065 2,025
- 47
4,884 9,224
- 47
Operating Expenses
- 540
- 438
23
- 1,783
- 1,307
36 Income/Loss from other operations
- 464
1,591
- 871
- 2,181
Operating Profit 61 3,178
- 98
2,230 5,736
- 61
Income/Loss from equity investment 25 72
- 66
197 257
- 23
Operating Profit Before Fin. Income/Loss 86 3,249
- 97
2,427 5,993
- 59
Financial Income /Expense
- 525
- 1,600
- 2,739
- 2,268
Profit Before Tax
- 439
1,649
- 311
3,724 Net Profit (excluding minority interest) 186 1,766
- 89
526 3,713
- 86
EBITDA *(mn.TL) 738 1,887
- 61%
4,039 8,908
- 55
Inventory Gain/Loss
- 89
- 297
194 2,653 EBITDA* (mn. TL) CCS 827 2,185 3,845 6,255
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Financial Highlights
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 28
Tüpraş recorded 4,039 MTL EBITDA in 2019.
1) Excluding minority interest 2) Calculation based on rolling net income
Financials
Mn TL Mn TL
367 335 1,575 1,033 851 1,080 688 1,542 2,210 1,495 1,144 867 1,528 3,778 956 1,208 1,505 1,237 1,887 738
3,799 3,396 5,882 8,908 4,039
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
EBITDA
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
275 79 869 378
- 375
710 331 1,457 1,027 870 750 581 992 542
- 155
815 803 493 1,766 186
2,550 1,793 3,812 3,713 526
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Net Income¹
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1.8 1.8 1.1 1.3 2.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Current Ratio & Net Debt / R. EBITDA
Net Debt / R. EBITDA Current Ratio 35% 22% 41% 37% 5%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Return on Average Equity²
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Balance Sheet Analysis
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 29
Strong balance sheet maintained despite weaker operational profitability Proactive Financial Management
- Deleveraging continues despite
- perational headwinds
- Dynamic liquidity management ensures
- ptimal cash and receivables
management
Billion TL Billion TL Billion TL
Financials
0.8
- 0.2
2.1 4.7 1.6
- 0.7
- 2.3
- 3.6
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19
Working Capital Requirement
6.9 6.1 6.2 12.0 10.6 10.1 8.7 8.4
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19
Net Debt
5.2 6.0 1.6 1.6 4.6 0.2
1 year 1-2 years 2-3 years 3-4 years 4-5 years Over 5 years
Redemption Schedule
Loan Eurobond TL bond
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Q4 Profit Before Tax Bridge (2018-2019)
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 30
Decline in Profit Before Tax was driven by weaker crack margins, narrower differentials and FX loss.
Million TL
Financials
Inventory FX +208
- 921
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Annual Profit Before Tax Bridge (2018-2019)
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 31
2019 PBT was lower mainly due to narrow differentials, weaker crack margins and natural gas price hikes.
Million TL
Financials
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Dividend (TL)
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 32
3.2 2.9 5.0 5.8 4.8 5.8 10.2 7.2 15.2 14.8 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.9 3.9 1.6 6.5 6.2 13.6 15.2 0.0 77% 101% 79% 66% 33% 0% 64% 87% 89% 102% 0% 0% 40% 80% 120% 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Earnings per Share Gross Dividend Dividend Payout
Financials
(*) 2019 dividend payment decision was announced on Feb 12, 2020 and is subject to approval at AGM.
(*)
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Investments (Million $)
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 33
274 355 400 186 177 628 974 1213 959 344 213 185 138 157 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ongoing Projects
- Revamp of Crude Units
- FCC Modernization
- New Sulphur Units
- Energy Saving Projects
- Optimization of conversion
units
- 6.5 bn USD investments since privatization
- Reached 9.5 Nelson Complexity
- Capability to process heavier and more sour crude
- Avg. 278 Mn$
- Avg. 943 Mn$
- Avg. 220 Mn$
Financials
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
12M 2019 Results
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 34
Financials
3.7 1.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 12M
Refining Margins ($/bbl)
Med Margin Tüpraş Net Margin
97.8% total capacity utilization in 2019
28.1 29.2 28 30 Production Sales
Operationals
12M 2019 Target
29.2 mn tons of sales and 28.1 m tons of production in 2019
157 150
12M 2019 Target
Capex (mn $) 157 mn$ refining CAPEX in 2019
97.8
20 40 60 80 100 12M
Capacity Utilization (%) 3.7 $/bbl net refining margin in 2019
Med FY Exp Tüpraş FY Target
2.8
- 3.1
- 5.3
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19
Med Margin ($/bbl)
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Tüpraş Balance Sheet (Million TL)
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 35
Financials
31.12.2019 31.12.2018 Diff.
- Diff. (%)
Current Assets 27,919 20,962 6,957 33 Cash & C. Equivalents 10,652 5,983 4,669 78 Trade Receivables 4,788 5,429
- 641
- 12
Derivatives 304 176 128 73 Inventories 9,469 6,765 2,704 40 Pre-paid expenses 237 109 128 118 Other Current Assets 2,470 2,502
- 32
- 1
Long Term Assets 27,593 19,074 8,519 45 Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 1,363 1,271 92 7 Fixed Assets 20,587 12,397 8,190 66 Derivatives 99 168
- 70
- 41
Pre-paid expenses 199 378
- 179
- 47
Deferred Tax 3,768 3,566 201 6 Other Long Term Assets 1,578 1,293 285 22
Total Assets 55,512 40,036 15,476 39
Short Term Liabilities 28,120 15,950 12,171 76 Financial Loans 5,178 4,113 1,064 26 Trade Payables 17,816 7,496 10,320 138 Derivatives 79 236
- 157
- 66
Provisions 117 80 37 46 Other ST Liabilities 4,930 4,024 906 23 Long Term Liabilities 14,255 14,140 114 1 Financial Loans 13,898 13,836 62 Payables & Provisions 316 257 59 23 Derivatives 32 42
- 10
- 24
Other LT Liabilities 9 5 4 89 Total equity attributable to equity holders of the parent 12,963 9,825 3,138 32 Minority Interests 174 121 53 43
Total Liabilities & Equity 55,512 40,036 15,476 39
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Foreign Currency Long Term Tüpraş BB- (Stable) B1 (Negative) Türkiye BB- (Stable) B1 (Negative) B+ (Stable) Koç Holding B1 (Negative) BB- (Stable)
Leading Corporate Governance Score
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 36
92.6 99.5 95.3 95.5 95.0
25 50 75 100 Board Stakeholders Transparency Shareholders Overall
Tüpraş BIST Corporate Governance Rating Score
Source: Bloomberg
45% 44% 11%
Buy Hold Sell
Analyst Recommendations Credit Rating Scores
Source: SAHA Corporate Governance and Rating Services Inc. (October 2019)
Financials
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Proactive in liquidity risk management & targets/limits for financial ratios:
- Net financial debt/EBITDA
- Net financial debt/Equity
Financial Policy
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Inestor Presentation 37
Financial Discipline: Risk management policies focusing on areas such as leverage, liquidity, counterparty risk, commodity, interest rate and currency exposure.
Leverage & Liquidity
- Current ratio
- Share of long term debt
Deposit is kept within bank-based limits:
- Credit rating assessment and strong capital base.
- Cap on the maximum deposit allocated to a single bank.
- Threshold for deposits subject to banks shareholders’ equity.
Counterparty Risk Policy
- The fixed/floating profile of financial debt.
- Proactive management of FX risk with derivative instruments
- Zero FX exposure target.
Interest Rate & Fx Inventory Hedging Policy:
- Operational hedge: Optimum stock policy & forward pricing mechanism.
- Financial hedge: Expected inventory exposure for the year end is hedged by using derivatives.
- Hedging ratio increasing throughout the year.
Crack Margin Hedging Policy:
- Financial hedge: Crack margin (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil) risk mitigation by using derivatives.
- Hedge ratio between %0-%50 with up to 1 year hedge tenor
Commodity Hedging Policy
Financials
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
FX Exposure Management (31 December 2019)
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 38
Consolidated Hard Currency Assets Consolidated Hard Currency Liabilities
* Cash flow hedge accounting : 813 mn $
- A significant portion of the Group's crude oil and refined
product purchases are denominated in US Dollars. In addition, the Group finances its capital expenditures mostly through borrowings denominated in US Dollars.
- Natural Hedge: The Group is able to mitigate some of
the impact of volatility in exchange rates through natural hedges: crude oil and refined product inventories are US Dollar denominated assets.
- Cash flow Hedge: RUP Facility financing loans
designated as hedging instruments of highly probable export revenues.
- As a general Koç Holding financial policy, Group
companies are allowed to keep foreign exchange positions within certain limits.
Tüpraş continues to employ strict FX policies to mitigate currency risks stemming from volatility.
Financials
Cash
202
Forward & CFH 2,740 Stock 1,537 Receivables & Other Assets 84 Payables 2,114 ST Financial Loans 792
- RUP: 191
- Other: 602
LT Financial Loans 1,687
- RUP: 707
- Eurobond: 700
- Other Loans: 280
- 30 mn $
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Appendix
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
2020 Refinery Maintenance Schedule
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 40
Appendix
Refinery Unit Quarter Duration (weeks) Status Batman Plt 100/1100 Crude Oil & Vacuum Q1-Q2 5 İzmir U-100 Crude Q1 6* U-4000 FCC Q4 6 U-9200 CCR Q1 & Q4 3 & 7 U-9600 Isomerization Q4 8 U-9900 MQD Q4 7 İzmit Plt-6 Desulphurizer Q4 4 Kırıkkale
* This activity had started in Q4-19. Duration figure indicates the portion carried out in 2020
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
2020 Expectations
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 41
Appendix
- Ural-Brent differential widening compared to 2019
- Weak outlook for HSFO
Med Complex Refining Margin 1.5-2.5 $/bbl
- IMO driven growth in mid-distillate cracks
- Gasoline cracks remain flat, HSFO to remain weak
- Heavy Crude Differentials to widen
- ~28 mt production, ~29mt sales and 95 - 100% capacity utilization
Tüpraş Net Refining Margin 4.5-5.5 $/bbl
- Sulphur treatment units, improvement in storage units
Refining Capex 200 million $
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Competition - STAR Refinery
www.tupras.com.tr 42 Apr-20 Investor Presentation
- Feasibility studies began in 2010 and
construction kicked off in 2011
- Goldman Sachs has acquired a 13%
stake in SOCAR Turkey for $1.3 billion.
- Total investment size 6.3 bn USD, with
3.3 bn USD credit agreement.
- Following the completion of
construction late 2018, reached full capacity utilization in August 2019
Turkish Market Structure (mn tons) Timeline
Turkey Demand Tüpraş STAR Total Turkish Market Demand Balance LPG 1.1 0.3 1.4 4.1
- 2.7
Petchem F. 0.2 2.6 2.8 Gasoline 6.1 6.1 2.4 3.7 Jet Fuel 5.2 1.6 6.8 5.2 1.6 Diesel 10.7 4.5 15.2 26.5
- 11.3
Fuel Oil 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.5 Bitumen 3.1 3.1 3.1 Pet coke 0.8 0.7 1.5 4.6
- 3.1
Total ~30 ~10 ~40
Appendix
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Competition - Regional Competition
www.tupras.com.tr 43 Apr-20 Investor Presentation
- Tüpraş competes with 71 refineries in the Mediterranean and Black Sea markets.
- Mediterranean regional product balance is also affected from Middle East, North West Europe and Asia flows
17 Refineries ~1.8mbd
Mediterranean Black Sea
54 Refineries ~7.8mbd
Appendix
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
IMO 2020: Changes in Bunker Specification and Its Effects
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 44
Current compliant fuels
Current Outlook Beyond 2020
Demand shift beyond 2020 HSFO replacement expectations Long term outlook for marine fuels
- Marine Gasoil (Diesel): Easiest solution as it is already
available
- Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO): Either through FCC
with sweet crudes or by blending
- Scrubbers: As of 28/02/20, ~3.4K vessels are either
fitted or scheduled to be fitted and ~0.6K vessels are
- n order book to be delivered with scrubbers
- LNG: requires significant investments at ports
1 2 3 4 5 6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Compliant HSFO Non-compliant HSFO VLSFO MGO LNG
- VLSFO is the initial choice, followed by MGO
- Fuel choice might change through the years as
availability & compatibility issues get resolved
- Compliant HSFO use grows as scrubber numbers rise
from ~2K after Jan 1st, 2020 (some ports started bans
- n open-loop scrubbers thus this projection might
change)
Source: Market Reports
Appendix
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Tüpraş Production Flow and Yield Breakdown
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 45
- Tüpraş has 30 million tons of production capacity
- Tüpraş operates 4 refineries with an integrated system optimization program
Appendix
Key Units # of Units Capacity (m3/d)
CRUDE OIL
8 99,420
VACUUM DIST.
8 42,752
HYDROCRACKER
4 18,032
ISOMERATION
3 7,804
UNIFINER REFORMER
5 16,225
KERO/DIESEL (HDS)
9 37,265
FCC
2 4,650
COKER
1 9000
NAPHTA SPLITTER
8
LPG MEROX
6
Flow Diagram
LPG MEROX NAPHTHA SPLITTER ISOMER. VACUUM DIST. UNIFINER REFORMER KERO/DIESEL (HDS) FCC HYDROCRACKER COKER
Bitumen Lube Oil FCC Gasoline HDS Benzen Saturation
Multiple distillation and production units
Other, 3.8% Bitumen & Fuel Oil, 19.9% Lube Oil, 0.5% Diesel, 33.9% Jet Fueloil, 16.5% Gasoline Naphtha, 22.0% LPG, 3.5%
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
RUP Feedstock and Production
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 46
- Residuum Upgrade Plant (RUP) was completed in 2015 and it is the main conversion unit of Tüpraş.
- First periodic maintenance was completed in Q2 2019.
Total Output ~4.25mn tons Total Processing ~4.50 mn tons
Appendix
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
European Pump Price Comparison
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 47
2.83 3.93 2.37 3.02 3.56 2.79 3.72 2.73 0.70 0.00 0.87 0.54 0.00 0.96 0.00 0.95 3.45 4.55 5.69 6.14 5.86 6.15 6.64 6.60
2 4 6 8 10 12
TR Spa. Ger UK Eu19 Fra. Gre. Ita.
Gasoline (TL/Lt)
Refinery Price
- Dist. Margin
Tax 3.17 4.10 2.89 3.94 4.52 3.02 3.05 3.18 0.76 0.00 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.80 0.73 2.58 3.85 4.37 4.78 4.49 5.55 5.75 6.21 2 4 6 8 10 12 TR Spa. Ger. EU19 Gre. Fra. Ita. UK
Diesel (TL/Lt)
Refinery Price
- Dist. Margin
Tax
European prices as of 16th December - Turkeys prices as of 24th December 2019
Turkish fuel prices are highly competitive with other European countries.
Appendix
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Tüpraş - ESG - Over a Decade of Dedication
www.tupras.com.tr Apr-20 Investor Presentation 48
Appendix
Tüpraş kicked off its sustainability program back in 2008 and achieved many milestones in a decade
~480
energy efficiency projects leading to
~35,000 TJ saving
and
2.4 mt CO2
reduction
31%
increase in solid waste recovery
20 points
drop in Energy Intensity
36%
decrease in fresh water usage
~205 MTL
donations and sponsorships
75%
increase in female employee numbers
~1mn
workhours dedicated to OHS training
+1.3 points
increase in Corporate Governance rating
17%
female representation in senior and mid-level management
See our Sustainability Report for details
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Tüpraş - ESG - 2018 Achievements
www.tupras.com.tr 49
- Kırıkkale Refinery won the first
place, İzmit Refinery the second and Batman Refinery the third in the Industrial Energy Efficiency Project Competition.
- İzmit Refinery won the first prize
in the Sustainable Business Awards
- Water Management Category.
- Achieved 69.5% water recycle ratio
- Achieved 88.6% solid waste
recovery
Environmental Responsibility
- Signed agreement to support
HeForShe (Global cooperation with UN Women and Fenerbahçe Sports Club)
- 62% of ex-crude procurement
activities were conducted through local businesses.
Social Support
- 9.50 Corporate Governance Rating
- 13% Female Representation at the
Board,
- 17% Female Representation in
Upper and Mid-Level Management.
Governance Excellence
Appendix
Apr-20 Investor Presentation
Hizmete Özel / Confidential
Koç Holding
www.tupras.com.tr 50
- Koç Holding is Turkey’s largest industrial and services
group in terms of revenues, exports, employees, taxes paid and market capitalization
- The only Turkish company in Fortuna 5001.
- 20% CAGR in consolidated profit2 the last five years
Turkey’s Leading Investment Holding Company
- Leading positions with clear competitive advantages in
sectors with long-term growth potential such as energy, automotive, consumer durables and finance.
Pioneer in its Sectors 8%
Combined Revenues / GDP
10%
Total Exports / Turkey’s Exports
16%
Total Market Cap in Borsa Istanbul
Notes : Data as of YE18, 2018 GDP reflects the projection of Turkish government’s New Economic Program. (1) 2018 Report (2) In TL terms between 2014-18
Appendix
Apr-20 Investor Presentation
Hizmete Özel / Confidential