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Investor Presentation 29 October 2015 Forward-Looking Statements - - PDF document
Investor Presentation 29 October 2015 Forward-Looking Statements - - PDF document
1 Investor Presentation 29 October 2015 Forward-Looking Statements Statements contained in this presentation that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and
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Forward-Looking Statements
Statements contained in this presentation that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements include words or phrases such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “project,” “could,” “may,” “might,” “should,” “will” and similar words and specifically include statements involving expected financial performance, day rates and backlog, estimated rig availability; rig commitments; contract duration, status, terms and other contract commitments; new rig commitments and construction; scheduled delivery dates for rigs; the timing of delivery, mobilization, contract commencement, relocation or other movement of rigs; benefits derived from expense management actions; estimated capital expenditures; rig stacking costs; and general market, business and industry conditions, trends and outlook. Such statements are subject to numerous risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may cause actual results to vary materially from those indicated, including commodity price fluctuations, customer demand, new rig supply, downtime and other risks associated with offshore rig operations, relocations, severe weather or hurricanes; changes in worldwide rig supply and demand, competition and technology; future levels of offshore drilling activity; governmental action, civil unrest and political and economic uncertainties; terrorism, piracy and military action; risks inherent to shipyard rig construction, repair, maintenance or enhancement; possible cancellation, suspension or termination of drilling contracts as a result of mechanical difficulties, performance, customer finances, the decline or the perceived risk of a further decline in oil and/or natural gas prices, or other reasons, including terminations for convenience (without cause); the outcome of litigation, legal proceedings, investigations or other claims or contract disputes; governmental regulatory, legislative and permitting requirements affecting drilling operations; our ability to attract and retain skilled personnel on commercially reasonable terms; environmental or other liabilities, risks or losses; debt restrictions that may limit our liquidity and flexibility; our ability to realize the expected benefits from our redomestication and actual contract commencement dates; cybersecurity risks and threats; and the occurrence or threat of epidemic or pandemic diseases or any governmental response to such occurrence or threat. In addition to the numerous factors described above, you should also carefully read and consider “Item 1A. Risk Factors” in Part I and “Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Part II of our most recent annual report on Form 10-K, as updated in our subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, which are available on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov or on the Investor Relations section of our website at www.enscoplc.com. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of the particular statement, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.
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Agenda
- Current Market Conditions
- Proactive Steps to Address Downturn
- Outlook for Offshore Drilling
– efficiency & cost improvements – attrition of older rigs
- Maintain and Widen Leadership Position
– #1 in customer satisfaction – best in innovation – most efficient/cost-effective driller
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Current Market Conditions
Source: IHS Upstream
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60
$ billions
Global exploration spend of 18 largest E&Ps
$29 $41 $58
- Substantial reduction in
E&P capex
- Unprecedented decline in
exploration spending
- Lower rig utilization & day
rates
- Expect 2016 capex to be
lower YoY
- The significant pullback in
spending will affect supply in the future
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- Drillers
– cutting costs & stacking/retiring rigs – deferring rig deliveries – speculators canceling rig orders
- Service companies
– strategic combinations to invest in technological innovations and process improvements that increase efficiencies and drive out costs
- Customers
– reducing capex – deferring projects – early terminations/concessions for existing rig contracts – re-engineering to increase efficiencies/reduce costs – testing economics for future programs based on lower costs and streamlined project management
Market Response
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- Capital Management
- Fleet Restructuring
- Expense Management
- Operational Excellence & Safety
– innovation – process improvements
Taking Decisive Steps To Be Resilient Through The Downturn
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- Accessed the debt markets
– $1.25 billion offering in 3Q14 – $1.10 billion offering in 1Q15 to refinance 2016 maturities
- Increased revolver to $2.25 billion and extended to 2019
- Reduced quarterly dividend to improve capital management
flexibility
- Deferred ENSCO DS-10 delivery to 1Q17, delaying ~$300 million
in capex
Proactive Capital Management
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Debt Maturity Profile
$500 $900 $1,500 $625 $700 $2,250
$0 $300 $600 $900 $1,200 $1,500 $1,800 $2,100 $2,400 $2,700 $3,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2027 2040 $150 $300 2044 Increased Revolving Credit Facility to $2.25B; extended to 2019
$ millions
$1,025
No debt maturities until 2Q19
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Credit Ratings
ESV DO NE RDC RIG ATW PACD ORIG SDRL BBB BBB BBB- BBB- BB BB- B- CCC- Not Rated
Investment Grade
Source: Bloomberg composite credit ratings as of October 2015; cash, short-term investments and contracted revenue backlog as of 30 September 2015
- $1.1 billion of cash and short-term investments
- $6.6 billion of contracted revenue backlog
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Declining Capital Expenditures
4Q15 2016 2017 2018
120 475 325 30 25 80 55 125 150 150 New rig construction Rig enhancements Minor upgrades and improvements
$ millions
$205 $625* $555*
*Note: Preliminary estimates for rig enhancement and minor upgrade and improvements for 2016, 2017 and 2018; final capex estimates to be determined upon completion of annual budget process and subject to change based on rig contracting; year-to-date capital expenditures through 30 September 2015: $1,130 million of new rig construction, $145 million of rig enhancements and $170 million of minor upgrades and improvements
$150*
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Fleet Restructuring: Newbuild Deliveries
2012.75 2013.75 2014.75 2015.75 2016.75 2017.75 2018.75 2019.75
ENSCO DS-7 ENSCO 120 ENSCO 121 ENSCO 122 ENSCO 110 ENSCO DS-8 ENSCO DS-9 ENSCO 123 ENSCO 140 ENSCO 141 ENSCO DS-10 Drillships Premium jackups
2013 2016 2017 2014 2015 2020 2018 2019
5 yrs with Total 5 yrs with Total 2 yrs on operating rate* 2 yrs on operating rate* 2 yrs w/ Wintershall 2 yrs w/ Wintershall 2 yrs with NAM 2 yrs with NAM 2+ yrs with Nexen 2+ yrs with Nexen 4 yrs with Total 4 yrs with Total Delivered & Contracted Under Construction & Uncontracted Delivered and On Operating Rate 3 yrs with NDC 3 yrs with NDC
*Note: Customer has terminated contract for its convenience. Per terms of contract for early termination, customer is required to make monthly payments for two years equal to the operating day rate of approximately $550,000, which may be partially defrayed should Ensco re-contract the rig within the next two years and/or mitigate certain costs during this time period while the rig is idle and without a contract.
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- 2014 floater upgrades
benefitting 2015 results
– ENSCO 5004 – ENSCO 5006
- Mooring upgrade for
ENSCO 8503 contracted to Stone Energy and ENSCO 8505 contracted to Marubeni
- 3rd ENSCO 8500 Series
floater to receive mooring upgrade in 2016
Upgrades to Existing Floaters
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- 20 rigs sold since 2010 generating ~$675 million in
proceeds
– 6 rigs sold in the past 12 months
- 4 jackups sold for more than $200 million in proceeds during 3Q14,
reducing exposure to Mexico jackup market
- 2 floaters >30 years of age sold for scrap value
- 6 rigs currently held for sale
– 4 floaters – 2 jackups
Fleet Restructuring: Divestitures
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- February 2015
– 9% unit labor cost decrease for offshore workers – 15% reduction of onshore positions
- $27 million in annualized savings
– full run-rate savings beginning 2Q15
- August 2015
– +6 ppt improvement in offshore unit labor cost savings to 15% compared to 2014 levels; full run-rate savings beginning 1Q16 – 14% incremental reduction of onshore positions
- $30 million additional annualized savings; full run-rate beginning 4Q15
- consolidated business unit reporting structure from five to three, centralizing certain
functions and rationalizing office space
Expense Management Actions
15% reduction in offshore unit labor costs + $57 million annual savings in onshore support costs
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- Stacking rigs without near-
term contracting opportunities reduces daily operating expenses
- Up-front costs to preserve
cold stacked rigs
– $1 million for jackups – $5 million for semis
- 8500 Series semis cold
stacking process includes:
– dehumidification – prevention of hull corrosion – key equipment preservation
Proactive Rig Stacking
Avg Daily Operating Expenses Warm Stack Cold Stack Drillship $40k per day <$10k per day
(ENSCO DS-1 & DS-2)
Semi $32k per day <$10k per day Jackup $20k per day <$5k per day
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Improved Expense Outlook
2Q15A 3Q15A 4Q15E $503 million $434 million
Prior estimate $450 - 455 million
$415 – $420 million
Prior estimate $435 - 440 million Expense reductions more than offset a projected increase in rig operating days v. 3Q15
Contract Drilling Expense
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- Proprietary asset
management system
– improve operational performance by increasing uptime – reducing maintenance costs – lower lifetime equipment costs
- Leverages standardization
Innovation During the Downturn
Ensco Asset Management System
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Excellent Safety Performance
Total Recordable Incident Rate
- Leading-edge safety
management systems
- Enhancing process
safety to drive further improvements
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 2015 Ensco Industry
Ensco statistics are Year To Date through September 30. The IADC industry statistics are as of Q2 2015.
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Net Income Margin Largest Offshore Drillers
ESV SDRL NE RIG DO RDC 30% 26% 25% 19% 16% 16%
Source: Thomson One; sum of trailing eight quarters of net income divided by sum of trailing eight quarters of revenue. Thomson One's data is based on aggregation of information collected from industry equity research analysts, and may not be based on GAAP reported financial data; Ensco financials as of 30 September 2015; Peer financials as of 2Q15 earnings disclosures; excludes Seadrill’s $440 million gain on disposal of West Auriga to Seadrill Partners in 1Q14
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High Levels of Customer Satisfaction Rated #1
- Total Satisfaction
- Health, Safety & Environment
- Technology
- Special Applications
- Deepwater Drilling
- Shelf Wells
- Non-Vertical Wells
- Harsh Environment Wells
- North Sea
- Latin America & Mexico
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Key Points to Remember
1. Deepwater production is 7% of global supply 2. Offshore reserves are a critical part of major E&P portfolios 3. Excessive costs/inefficiencies crept into sector during the $100+ oil environment 4. Industry is proactively responding to commodity price pressures 5. Breakeven commodity prices for offshore programs are declining 6. Unprecedented decline in E&P exploration spending will create pent up demand and a future snapback in spending
Outlook for Offshore E&P
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- Shell has stated that deepwater is a key driver of growth
– “Our growth priorities follow two strategic themes: integrated gas and deepwater. These will provide our medium-term growth and we expect them to become core engines in the future.”
- Shell’s recent acquisition of BG aligns with the company’s
priorities in deepwater, particularly in Brazil
– “Brazil is an absolutely outstanding upstream province … [and] at this moment is the most exciting part of the industry.” – “The potential is absolutely gigantic – there is much more to come.”
Importance of Deepwater
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Other major E&Ps have made similar comments YTD regarding the importance of deepwater projects to future growth
– BP: “In order to deliver long-term growth, we will continue to maintain a disciplined investment approach into three distinctive classes of assets: deepwater, gas value chains and giant fields. We will continue to maintain a balanced portfolio of opportunities.” – Chevron: “New supply will increasingly come from more complex and remote sources with higher full-cycle development costs [including] arctic, deepwater, heavy, sour and the like.” – Total: “A new direction is being taken to carry out deep offshore
- perations in even deeper waters … and at greater distances for multi-
phase production transport … which is fully in line with the ambitious goals of [the company’s] exploration and production [business] and supports major technology-intensive assets such as Libra in Brazil.”
Importance of Deepwater
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- BP Mad Dog: Phase 2
– Cost estimates reduced to less than $10 billion from previous estimate of $22 billion – Project re-engineering through standardization and scope
- ptimization, coupled with industry deflation, resulted in significantly less
capital required to develop approximately 90% of resources
- Shell Appomattox
– 20% reduction in project costs from supply chain savings, design improvements, etc.
- Total Block 32
– Capital expenditure estimate reduced by $4 billion to $16 billion – Optimized project design and contracting strategy
- Statoil
– “Standardization is the new innovation.”
Customers Re-Engineering Projects
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Recent strategic combinations/alliances among service companies to drive greater efficiencies and lower the breakeven commodity prices for projects:
- Schlumberger/Cameron – strategic innovation, efficiencies and cost
reductions in deepwater projects; driving down breakeven commodity price levels
- GE Oil & Gas/McDermott – improve design/planning of offshore oil and gas
field developments
- OneSubsea/Subsea 7 – enhance project delivery, improve recovery and
- ptimize the cost and efficiency of deepwater subsea developments
- FMC Technologies/Technip – overhaul subsea field operations to drive
efficiencies
- Baker Hughes/Aker Solutions – develop technology for production solutions
that will boost output, increase recovery rates and reduce costs for subsea fields
- Schlumberger/OneSubsea/Helix – optimize the cost and efficiency of subsea
well intervention systems
Service Sector Response
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- Shallow water well programs have lower breakeven commodity
price points on average than deepwater projects
– less complex drilling requirements, shallower water depths and greater access to existing infrastructure
- More diverse customer base; shallow water demand a function
- f customer- and region-specific factors
– increased rig demand in the Middle East from NOCs – leases requiring continued drilling in areas like North Sea and West Africa have stabilized demand as exploration capex has been reduced – well intervention now more economic in lower day rate environment – U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Asia Pacific markets are challenged due to capex reductions and uncontracted newbuild supply, respectively
- Drillers with established operational and safety track records have
an advantage in contracting rigs
– zero newbuilds being built by speculators have been contracted
Jackup Market Dynamics
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Source: IHS-ODS Petrodata as of October 2015; competitive marketed floaters and jackups (independent leg cantilever rigs); ‘contracted’ includes rigs currently under contract or with a future contract
Global Marketed Rig Fleet
Newbuilds
Floaters Jackups
Contracted 208 300 Idle/Other 62 93 Total 270 393 % Contracted 77% 76% Under Construction 52 107 On Order / Planned 19 5 Total 71 112 % Contracted 52% 7%
Active Fleet
29 / 41% by SETE Brasil 68 / 61% by Speculators
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Newbuild Floater Order Book
Source: IHS-ODS Petrodata as of October 2015; marketed competitive floaters
71 Total
7 Uncontracted, On Order 9 Contracted 36% 17% 17 SETE Brasil, Under Construction 26 Uncontracted, Under Construction 13% 10% 12 SETE Brasil, On Order 24%
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Newbuild Floater Delivery Schedule
Source: IHS-ODS Petrodata as of October 2015; marketed competitive floaters
3 13 8 1 1 4 3 1 6 4 1 9 5 2 1 2 5 2
5 10 15 20 25 30 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Uncontracted, Under Construction Uncontracted, On Order SETE Brasil, On Order SETE Brasil, Under Construction Contracted
Under SETE Brasil by Shipyard Constr. On Order Total Estaleiro Atlantico Sul 4 3 7 Estaleiro Jurong Aracruz 4 3 7 BrasFELS, Angra dos Reis 5 1 6 Estaleiro Enseada do Paraguacu 2 4 6 Ecovix‐Engevix, Rio Grande do Sul 2 1 3 Total 17 12 29
? ? ? ? ?
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159 164 182 195 211 32 32 37 35 31 38 36 38 31 19 41 43 45 55 71 Current 2015 2016 2017 2018
< 15 years old 15-29 years old 30-35 years old > 35 years old
Floater Supply
*SETE Brasil rig counts by year are cumulative Source: IHS-ODS Petrodata as of October 2015; marketed competitive floaters
Assumes all rigs ‘On Order’
- r partially
completed including SETE Brasil rigs are built, delivered and complete customer acceptance testing 9 SETE*
Cumulative # of rigs rolling off contract > 30 years old: 9 45 59 65
15 SETE* 23 SETE*
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Attrition of Older Floaters
- 88% attrition for rigs >35
years of age historically
– 24 rigs >35 years of age scrapped
- 67% attrition for rigs 30-34
years of age historically
– 11 rigs 30-34 years of age scrapped
- 7 rigs <30 years of age
scrapped (5 rigs <20 yrs old)
~100 floaters could be retired by year-end 2017 if attrition continues at similar rates observed over the past 12 months
Scrapped to Date 42 floaters scrapped since 3Q14 Currently Idle ~30 floaters that are idle without follow-on work could be retired Expiring Contracts ~45 floaters with contracts expiring before YE17 without follow-on work could be retired
- 20 rigs >35 years of age
x 88% attrition rate ~18 scrap candidates
- 18 rigs 30-34 years of age
x 67% attrition rate ~12 scrap candidates
- Floater utilization would
improve to 79% from 71% if ~30 rigs were scrapped
Source: IHS-ODS Petrodata as of October 2015; ‘retired’ includes scrapped rigs, announced scrapping and rigs converted to non-drilling units; utilization figures include non-marketed units
- 38 rigs >35 years of age
x 88% attrition rate ~33 scrap candidates
- 21 rigs 30-34 years of age
x 67% attrition rate ~14 scrap candidates
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Newbuild Jackup Order Book
Source: IHS-ODS Petrodata as of October 2015; marketed competitive jackups (independent leg cantilever rigs)
112 Total
64 Uncontracted, Speculators 35 Uncontracted, Established Drillers 8 Contracted, Established Drillers
31% 7% 57%
5 On Order, All Uncontracted
5%
Zero rigs being built by speculators have been contracted
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7 20 4 2 2 3 1 1 24 24 15 1 6 2
10 20 30 40 50 60 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Uncontracted, Established Drillers On Order, Established Drillers On Order, Speculators Uncontracted, Speculators Contracted
Newbuild Jackup Delivery Schedule
Source: IHS-ODS Petrodata as of October 2015; marketed competitive jackups (independent leg cantilever rigs)
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Speculator Newbuilds Under by Shipyard Constr. On Order Total China China Merchants Heavy Industry 12 ‐ 12 Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding 7 1 8 Yantai CIMC Raffles 5 ‐ 5 Other 29 1 30 Subtotal 53 2 55 Singapore & Middle East Keppel FELS, Singapore 8 ‐ 8 Other ‐ Singapore 3 ‐ 3 UAE & Dubai ‐ 2 2 Subtotal 11 2 13 Total 64 4 68
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*Speculator rig counts by year are cumulative Source: IHS-ODS Petrodata as of October 2015; marketed competitive jackups (independent leg cantilever rigs)
Jackup Supply
200 231 280 300 301 22 20 17 19 20 107 105 73 28 17 64 68 104 151 164 Current 2015 2016 2017 2018
< 15 years old 15-29 years old 30-35 years old > 35 years old
Assumes all rigs ‘On Order’
- r partially
completed including rigs built by Speculators are built, delivered and complete customer acceptance testing
Cumulative # of rigs rolling off contract > 30 years old: 19 65 90 115
30 Speculator 52 Speculator 65 Speculator 66 Speculator 24 Speculator* 48 Speculator* 66 Speculator* 68 Speculator*
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Attrition of Older Jackups
- 5 competitive jackups retired
- Between 1Q09 and 2Q14,
another 13 competitive jackups were retired with an average age of 30 years
100+ jackups could be retired as expiring contracts and survey costs lead to the removal of older rigs from drilling supply
Retired to Date 5 competitive jackups retired since 3Q14 Currently Idle 69 competitive jackups >30 years of age idle Expiring Contracts 90 jackups >30 years of age have contracts expiring before YE17 without follow-on work
- 16 competitive jackups
>30 years old have been idle for at least one year
- 15 competitive jackups
>30 years old have been idle for six to 12 months
- 38 competitive jackups
>30 years old have been idle up to six months
- Jackup utilization would
improve to 84% from 72% if ~70 rigs were retired
Source: IHS-ODS Petrodata as of October 2015; competitive jackups are independent leg cantilever rigs, ‘retired’ includes scrapped rigs, announced scrapping and rigs converted to non- drilling units; utilization figures include non-marketed units
- ~50% of these rigs are
estimated to require a major survey for recertification within one year of contract expiration
- These surveys could
require significant capital investment to meet classification requirements that may prompt more rig retirements
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Newbuild Cancellations and Deferrals
Floaters
- Reports suggest many of the 29 rigs in SETE Brasil program may be cancelled
- Seadrill and Vantage each cancel 1 drillship scheduled for 2015 delivery; 4
- ther newbuilds ‘on order’ cancelled
- Atwood delays 2 drillships with 2015 expected deliveries by 18 months each
- Ocean Rig delays 2 drillships with 2017 expected deliveries by 16 months
each on average
- Transocean delays 4 drillships with 2016 to 2018 expected deliveries by
between 12 and 24 months each Jackups
- 6 jackups ordered by speculators were cancelled since mid-year 2014
- Seadrill delays 8 jackups with 2015/2016 scheduled deliveries by approx. six
months each
- Transocean delays 5 jackups with 2016/2017 expected deliveries by more
than two years each
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Increase in Scrapping and Cold Stacking
18 12 8 2 2 1 7 9 5 4 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Scrapped Cold Stacked
Floaters
1 2 2 1 4 2 3 6 9 4 2 4 6 8 10 12 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Scrapped Cold Stacked
Jackups
Source: IHS-ODS Petrodata as of October 2015; jackups defined as independent leg cantilever rigs; ‘scrapping’ includes scrapped rigs, announced scrapping and rigs converted to non-drilling units
42 scrapped & 27 cold stacked 6 scrapped & 28 cold stacked
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- We have taken proactive capital
management, fleet restructuring and expense management decisions
- Our liquidity and balance sheet position
gives us resilience and options
- We will invest in innovation and
engineering to grow our leadership position for the future
- The offshore drilling industry will be
reconfigured by this downturn - newer entrants and companies with weaker balance sheets will struggle
Summary
In a very challenged market our liquidity and balance sheet provide resilience and options
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